Playing the numbers division by division

[Brees#1]

Before the 2013 season I had done this and I never looked back to see how I really did. I'm going to do this again, where I will go each division and then go back to 2011 for each team to see how their record vs said division(including their own) was+same place matchups each year and to predict how they will do this season(rest of the way).

I tried this on another forum last year and was accused of being autistic. I don't know if I honestly am but I am a gemini and geminis tend to have unique qualities and try to make the most of anything, which is why I do stuff like this.

AFC East

vs.AFC's other three divisions each year
NE
11,12-4-0
13,14-3-1
15' prediction-4-0. NE is supposed to be trending downward here but they still own the colts and the other three teams are simply not elite enough(or at all to beat NE)

Buf
11-3-1
12,13-1-3
14-0-4
15' prediction-4-0. Buffalo went 2-2 in 10 so the order has been 2-2, 3-1, 1-3. They backtracked to 0-4. But they had never gone 0-4 against a AFC division before. Given the division they are playing I think 4-0 will happen with the now reverse order.

Mia
11-2-2
12-1-3
13-3-1
14-2-2
15' prediction-1-3. The numbers stay consistent here. Miami has not stalled since 2010 on the same record. They have already split the Ten/Jac road games and I think they should lose the home games to Houston and Indy.

NYJ
11,12-2-2
13,14-1-3
15' prediction-3-1. In 2010, they went 3-1 so the pattern is 3-1, 2-2, 1-3. Given they are playing the south 0-4 is not possible and they have not gone 0-4 against a AFC division yet. They already have beaten Indy and should beat Tennessee week 15. Jacksonville was looking like a loss but with how jets are playing so far, I don't see that happening. Houston is their loss.

vs.NFC's four divisions
NE
11-3-1
12-1-3
13,14-3-1
15' prediction-3-1. They skipped over 2-2 but going 1-3 was a anomaly for NE. They have always been 3-1 or 4-0. NE could go 4-0 here but I think they still will have trouble with NYG.

Buf
11-2-2
12,13-1-3
14-4-0
15' prediction-2-2. They skip 3-1, because its not possible for them to win in Philadelphia and Washington back to back weeks. Atlanta just did it in NY/Dallas, but Buffalo offensively is not them. I think they lose to Washington because of it being the later of the b2b road games. They will have a chance to back up to 3-1 next year if they can win against both LA(rams) and Arizona.

Mia
11-1-3
12-2-2
13-1-3
14-2-2
15' prediction-1-3. From 09-14 Miami had been going back and forth between 1-3 and 2-2 because they were not good enough to beat NFC teams for the most part from 11-15. I think it continues as they already had their sole NFC East win @Washington.

NYJ
11,12-2-2
13-3-1
14-0-4
15' prediction-1-3. Their remaining two games are on the road and against a in-city rival who has owned them and Dallas, where at home it would be more winnable. They already lost to Philadelphia, the only tough team they have even played so far. They can't beat the competitive until they do.

vs.single same place home/road matchups from the other three AFC divisions
NE
11,12-1-1
13,14-2-0
15' prediction-2-0. For NE it's all about who is elite and who isn't and if it's at home or on the road. They already beat Pittsburgh but Denver's offense might be enough to lose to NE, even if it's at home.

Buf
11-0-2
12-2-0
13,14-1-1
15' prediction-1-1. They already lost to Cincinatti but this year it seems they will get back to their winning ways against KC as they are without JC now. It works itself out as pre-season they were supposed to beat Cincy and lose @KC.

Mia
11-0-2
12,13-2-0
14-1-1
15' prediction-1-1. If there's a opportunity to beat Baltimore it's this season. I don't think they win in SD. And the five days rest after a home game against NYG doesn't hep.

NYJ
11-1-1
12-0-2
13-1-1
14-2-0
15' prediction-1-1. It appears it is going in trap order, up to the highest and down to the lowest. They already beat Cleveland. And even though they have beaten most teams that are mediocre, Oakland follows a big division road game and is a back to back road game plus traveling across the country between the two. Oakland also is playing better at home than before and also better overall than before.

Vs.own division
NE
11-5-1
12-6-0
13,14-4-2
15' prediction-4-2. The lowest NE can ever go is 4-2 until Brady falls off. Beating Buffalo on the road and not playing at home week 17 indicates a sweep. I think given the close games recently and what they are doing this year, they will split with the jets and will not need to win the last game in Miami if they win week 8.

Buf
11-1-5
12-2-4
13-3-3
14-4-2
15' prediction-3-3. Buffalo since 2011 has gotten better each year in the division. They have won in Miami, and have them at home next time. However, Buffalo has looked bad at home so far sans week 1 and with the big revenge game right after on short rest, I think they lose one of them. Their road performance is good so far and I think they win in NJ and sweep the jets again, with the home game being in December. They reverse numerically in the other direction.

Mia
11-3-3
12,13-2-4
14-3-3
15' prediction-3-3. They split with all three for the second straight year. They go on the road against the jets but that's where they have had their number in their rivalry. This year would make that 4 straight road wins. They get a break against NE.

NYJ
11-3-3
12-2-4
13-3-3
14-1-5
15' prediction-2-4. They get the leftover numbers here, they were 4-2 in 10 and instead of going to 4-2 last year, they went 1-5, indicating they were not good enough to go 4-2. In recent years, Buffalo has started standing up to them and Miami has split with them since 09. It makes sense they get one other division win only and it being week 16 against NE.

Division standings prediction
New England 13-3
Buffalo 10-6
New York 7-9
Miami 6-10

Basically Buffalo will soon pick it up and start putting up a strong run. Jets second half will be their undoing, starting with Buffalo, and Miami won't turn it around(two tough games coming up).

AFC North next.

 

[jarntt]

Someone needs a girlfriend...

 

[ATL96Steeler]

Someone needs a girlfriend...

Was thinking something along those lines too.

 

[Brees#1]

AFC North

vs.AFC's three other divisions
Pit
11-3-1
12-1-3
13-2-2
14-4-0
15' prediction-4-0. They skipped over 3-1 but with how things appear so far, they look to win in KC and should win both home games against Oakland and the offenseless Denver staying 4-0 for the second straight season.

Cin
11-14-3-1
15' prediction-3-1. They have already won three and the remaining one is at Denver likely a loss. In 10, they went 0-4 and in 09 1-3 going in a 1-3, 0-4, 3-1 direction.

Bal
11-2-2
12-3-1
13,14-2-2
15' prediction-2-2. While they look the worst they have looked under Harbaugh ever, they should beat the two AFC West teams at home, who lack a running games and offensive line play. And after they lose Monday, they will need to beat SD.

Cle
11-2-2
12-3-1
13,14-1-3
15' prediction-1-3. This looked like 0-4 but KC without JC changed that and I think Cleveland takes a pointless road win week 16.

vs.NFC's four divisions
Pit
11,12-3-1
13,14-2-2
15' prediction-3-1. They already are 3-0 and basically they have not gone 1-3 since 2003 and 4-0 since 2005. It has been 2-2 or 3-1. It's reasonable they lose at Seattle.

Cin
11-13-3-1
14-3-0-1
15' prediction-3-1. In 10, they went 1-3 and before that 3-1. 2-2's been skipped over while Cincy just went 3-0-1 they still stayed at 3 wins. They beat Seattle already, and won't have to play SF in primetime(that's getting flexed) so that and StL should be their other wins keeping the 3 win trend intact.

Bal
11-3-1
12,13-2-2
14-4-0
15' prediction-1-3. They had been 2-2 or better under Harbaugh against NFC divisions. This year is looking different and last year they went 4-0 for the first time against NFC. The backtrack to 1-3 is what I see with them losing at home to St.Louis, not Seattle.

Cle
11-1-3
12-0-4
13-1-3
14-3-1
15' prediction-0-4. Not in line with the actual numbers but it was rare for Cleveland to even go 3-1 last year, as it hasn't happened since 07. I think the 3-1 was a extra bump and they don't backtrack to 2-2. They start back from the top(that they will go) to the bottom of the record order.

vs.same place home/road matchups from AFC's other three divisions
Pit
11-2-0
12-1-1
13-0-2
14-1-1
15' prediction-1-1. They already lost at NE and before the season I had them losing to Indy but that doesn't look likely now and the numbers here support it.

Cin
11,12-1-1
13-2-0
14-1-1
15' prediction-2-0. They're too consistent to be 0-2 right now and haven't been since 09. Hard to see them losing to Houston.

Bal
11-14-1-1
15' prediction-0-2. They almost lost to Jacksonville last year and this year given the regression/improvement among each of them, I think Jacksonville succeeds in their second attempt. I already have them losing in Miami. In 10, they went 2-0. Their glory days appear to be over.

Cle
11-1-1
12,13-0-2
14-1-1
15' prediction-1-1. They already have done that. Tennessee was the option, they were not winning in NJ.

vs.their own division
Pit
11-4-2
12-3-3
13,14-4-2
15-4-2. This comes down to week 8. If Pittsburgh were to win that, then 5-1 division. But I think Big Ben will be a rusted coming back so I am picking a split. They win week 14 in Cincinatti. Cleveland gets swept.

Cin
11-2-4
12-14-3-3
15' prediction-4-2. In 10, they went 2-4 and before that 6-0. They lose one game to Cleveland again and week 14 against Pittsburgh.

Bal
11-6-0
12-4-2
13,14-3-3
15' prediction-2-4. They went 6-0 in 11, but in this division winning 11 games in two years is hard to do. That doesn't usually happen. And Baltimore is trending downward.

Cle
11-0-6
12-14-2-4
15' prediction-2-4. In 10, they went 1-5 and before that 1-5. 2-4 is the highest they have been getting so they are going 1-5, 0-6, 2-4. They beat Cincinatti one time again and already beat Baltimore.

AFC north standings prediction
Pittsburgh 12-4(common game tie-breaker)
Cincinatti 12-4
Baltimore 5-11
Cleveland 4-12

AFC South is next.

 

[Ned_Merrill]

I do stuff like this.

I completely support what you are doing. It takes guts to post something like this, and a lot of time also. Going forward, I have two suggestions ( NOT criticisms):

1 Use color to highlight records, so the post is more readable. Example:

AFC East

vs.AFC's other three divisions each year
...
Mia
11-2-2
12-1-3
13-3-1
14-2-2
15' prediction-1-3. The numbers stay consistent here. Miami has not stalled since 2010 on the same record. They have already split the Ten/Jac road games and I think they should lose the home games to Houston and Indy.
...

2 Rules of logic say that these types of events are statistically independent of one another. In other words, Miami's record in 2015 has nothing whatsoever to do with their record in the other four seasons, except as an indicator of a team moving up or down in strength. Trends are based on the quality of each team and its opponents year-by-year, and the record varying in the past as a factor in prediction is a logical fallacy.

Good luck to you, man. ...

Where's my GF?

 

[SonnyCID]

Where's my GF?

 

[Ned_Merrill]

Dang! Those are some nice ... uhhh ... formations.

 

[Dude]

You must have burned the midnight oil to get those figures. I tried to crunch numbers like that once, and failed miserably. Became terribly confused and my girlfriend was mad as hell.

 

[Brees#1]

AFC South

vs.AFC's other three divisions
Ind
11-0-4(anomaly)
12-2-2
13,14-3-1
15' prediction-1-3. In 10, they went 3-1. The Luck era started in 12 after anomaly year left by the absence of Peyton, so they jumped to 2-2 as 0-4 under Luck won't happen and 0-4 never happened under Manning. They have lost three already but will beat Miami.

Hou
11,12-3-1
13-1-3
14-2-2
15' prediction-2-2. They have not played anyone yet. I have them beating Miami and NYJ.

Jac
11-1-3
12,13-0-4
14-1-3
15' prediction-1-3. I only had them beating the one they already beat.

Ten
11-2-2
12-3-1
13-2-2
14-0-4
15' prediction-0-4. Last year was odd but Tennessee was a bad team. And with then losing two home games already, and based on the east predictions, looks like two straight years at 0-4. I had them 1-3 before the season beating Miami.

vs.NFC's four divisions
Ind
11-0-4
12-3-1
13,14-2-2
15' prediction-4-0. Against this division, 2-2 is the ceiling. They just will not lose to Carolina and TB. It was 2-2 again or 4-0/ If I pick them to lose to saints, they lose to Atlanta. If I pick them to beat saints, they beat Atlanta. After losing to NE I don't think they can afford to lose back to back home games. So I pick Indy to go 4-0 win this week and will get it together after the bye week and beat a Atlanta team who has been lucking out many games.

Hou
11,12-2-2
13-0-4
14-1-3
15' prediction-2-2. After 09, the NFC's rise was too much for Houston as they have not been able to be better than .500 each year. I think they beat NO in addition to already beating TB. Also, there's a trend where NO and TB have gone 2-2 or 0-4 in road IC games since 05.

Jac
11-1-3
12,13-0-4
14-1-3
15' prediction-0-4. They still are the jags and it doesn't look like they are ready to contend yet. 2-2 would be a first since 08. Their last two games are against Atlanta and at NO, and I think it's hard to see them winning either. So back to 0-4.

Ten
11-2-2
12,13-1-3
14-0-4
15' prediction-1-3. I think it would be 3-1 or 1-3. I honestly don't think with what I am seeing so far they can beat Carolina. They beat TB already and there's the possibility they pose a trap at NO but don't think it happens. Atlanta isn't happening with Marriotta out. They actually lose four straight home games.

vs.home/road same place matchups from other three divisions
Ind
11-0-2(anomaly)
12-2-0
13,14-0-2
15' prediction-0-2. Kind of hard to tell. 1-1 was skipped but Manning never went 0-2. Luck era started them at 2-0, 0-2. They should lose to Denver and Pittsburgh to go 0-2 again.

Hou
11-1-1
12-2-0
13-0-2
14-2-0
15' prediction-0-2.they skipped 1-1 because of going to Oakland and hosting the bills, games simply too winnable. But I don't see the backtrack to 1-1, they should lose to Cincinatti.

Jac
11,12-0-2
13-1-1
14-0-2
15' prediction-1-1. With the matchups this year 2-0 is possible but I'm going 1-1. They lose to SD for the fifth straight time. They went 2-0 in 10 with Garrard as qb, but they've been bad since that year.

Ten
11-2-0
12-1-1
13-2-0
14-1-1
15' prediction-1-1. In 10, they went 0-2. They were going in a downward order but then stagnated between 2-0 and 1-1. They already lost to Cleveland but I think they beat Oakland, staying at 1-1.

vs.their own division
Ind
11-2-4(anomaly)
12-4-2
13,14-6-0
15' prediction-5-1. They never went 2-4 under Manning, so Luck era started them at 4-2, 6-0. I think next is 5-1 and given Indy will nothing to play for the last game, the titan get a freebie.

Hou
11-4-2
12-5-1
13-1-5
14-4-2
15' prediction-3-3. Jackonville and Tennessee were much worse than Houston it was impossible for Houston to lose to them when contenders and 13 was a anomaly for them in a way because they had a tougher schedule and they carried over in division play. With two numbers jumped over(Pittburgh did this in 10 going from 2-4 to 5-1 and since 4-2, 3-3, 4-2, 4-2), Houston has to back up. They back up to 3-3 as Jacksonville will get swept again but the titans get them once as Mariotta will get it together.

Jac
11-3-3
12-2-4
13-3-3
14-1-5
15' prediction-1-5. They have not gone 4-2 since 05, when they went 12-4 overall and was Indy's biggest competition. They stagnated between the two numbers since until last year. I think they lose to Indy and Houston twice again and split with Tennessee again.

Ten
11-3-3
12-1-5
13-2-4
14-1-5
15' prediction-3-3. They reversed in 14 because they were not good enough to go 3-3. They are getting lucky this year beating Indy the last game. They had Indy the last game this year but Indy was still playing for the 3rd seed.

AFC south standings prediction
Indianapolis 10-6
Houston 7-9
Tennessee 5-11
Jacksonville 3-13

AFC West next. I know people think this is weird but I'm not using numbers to make my predictions unless they are toss-ups. I am seeing how the numbers go with what's playing out, likely to play out to me.

 

[Southieinnc]

Someone needs a girlfriend...

 

[Ned_Merrill]

View attachment 43900

C'mon, Southie, He works very hard on these posts.

 

[Brees#1]

AFC West

vs.AFC's three other divisions
Den
11-2-2
12-4-0
13,14-3-1
15' prediction-3-1. They were 2-2 from 09-11, and before that 1-3. Manning came to Denver in 12, bringing another dimension to the team. So Manning era starts at 4-0, 3-1. They stay 3-1 again I think only losing at Pittsburgh.

KC
11,12-0-4
13-3-1
14-4-0
15' prediction-0-4. KC went 0-4, 1-3, 2-2 from 08-10. The Reid era started at 3-1, 4-0. This year I think with how they started off and without JC they go 0-4, even losing to Cleveland.

SD
11-2-2
12-1-3
13,14-2-2
15' prediction-1-3. This one's a bit off, because I don't think SD wins in Baltimore. They should be 2-2 again but they will be 1-3.

Oak
11,12-1-3
13-2-2
14-1-3
15' prediction-2-2. The numbers are off here as well. They were supposed to be 1-3 or 0-4 as their pattern as been 0-4, 1-3, 2-2 and in a forward order. The reverse could mean the new era in Oakland under JDR.

vs.NFC's four divisions
Den
11-2-2
12-3-1
13-4-0
14-2-2
15' prediction-3-1. 2-2, 3-1, 4-0 this is a Manning team. They were supposed to lose in Denver but they won that. However, with how the offense looks they won't win against Green Bay, even if it is at home.

KC
11-3-1
12-2-2
13-4-0
14-2-2
15' prediction-0-4. I am sensing a even only pattern, then odd(16 and 17) as it doesn't look good for them to pull out the game against Detroit without Charles.

SD
11-1-3
12-0-4
13,14-3-1
15' prediction-2-2. They already lost to GB and Minnesota so looks like they move down to 2-2 as they should beat Chicago but its one of the toss-ups.

Oak
11-2-2
12,13-0-4
14-1-3
15' prediction-1-3. They are not beating GB and Detroit. They are at home against Minnesota which I have them winning.

Den
11-1-1
12-0-2
13,14-1-1
15' prediction-1-1. Already decided they win in Indy and lose to NE.

KC
11-1-1
12-0-2
13-2-0
14-0-2
15' prediction-1-1. The numbers reversed last year. Don't think they win against Buffalo.

SD
11,12-2-0
13-0-2
14-2-0
15' prediction-2-0. They have been going 2-0 or 0-2 since 07. They beat Miami and Jacksonville.

Oak
11-2-0
12,13-1-1
14-0-2
15' prediction-1-1. They went 0-2 in 10, but I have the lock pattern starting here with them losing to Tennessee and beating NYJ.

vs.their own division
Den
11-3-3
12-6-0
13-5-1
14-6-0
15' prediction-6-0. If Denver needs to win to hold onto a seed, they usually do when playing a rival. KC and Oakland have not been able to outcoach Denver that the worse Denver could do is 5-1. Denver will be playing for a bye week 17 against SD so they have to sweep again.

KC
11-3-3
12-0-6
13-2-4
14-3-3
15' prediction-1-5. The jump was due to Reid's tenure starting, but 3-3 is highest KC is going until they can beat Denver. 0-4 was pre-Reid so 1-5 is the ceiling. I'm picking them to get swept additionally by Oakland.

SD
11-3-3
12,13-4-2
14-2-4
15' prediction-2-4. Highest is 4-2, lowest is 2-4. I think they split with Oakland and KC.

Oak
11-3-3
12-2-4
13,14-1-5
15' prediction-3-3. In 10, they went 6-0. Basically 6-0, 5-1, or 4-2 for Oakland is a high mark that would only happen once in a while and that was first of two years under Jackson. The highest they are going until they can beat Denver is 3-3. This year, that happens with KC's regression.

AFC west standings prediction
Denver 12-4
Oakland 7-9
San Diego 7-9
Kansas City 2-14

 

[Brees#1]

AFC playoff picture
New England 13-3
Denver 13-3
Pittsburgh 12-4
Indianapolis 10-6
wild cards
Cincinatti 12-4
Buffalo 10-6


NFC tomorrow.

 

[Battlelyon]

Where's my GF?

Right here pucker up...



Lucky for you she has low standards.

 

[Ned_Merrill]

Not any more. She found out I was a Seahawks fan. Her standards aren't THAT low.

 

[The Derski]

When the fuck are you getting to the NFC North?

 

[Brees#1]

NFC East

vs.NFC's three other divisions
Dal
11-3-1
12-2-2
13-1-3
14-2-2
15' prediction-2-2. I think they reverse at the ceiling here and they already lost two games, they should beat TB and Carolina.

Phi
11,12-1-3
13-3-1
14-1-3
15' prediction-2-2. They went 4-0 in 08, 3-1 in 09, and 1-3 in 10. 2-2 was skipped but The Vick era changed things in 10, and Kelly era began in 13. I think they beat TB and lose to Carolina so the numbers point to backing up to 2-2 but continuing going in a downward order.

NYG
11-2-2
12,13-3-1
14-1-3
15' prediction-1-3. Giants I only have beating TB and losing to Carolina and NO. They could beat Carolina I just don't think they will.

Was
11-3-1
12-2-2
13-1-3
14-0-4
15' prediction-0-4. They have been going in a up and down order, up to 3-1 and down to 0-4. Until Philadelphia beat NO, I had them beating NO. Now I don't think that happens and I don't see them beating TB who has more talent despite being as poorly coached and qb'd.

vs.AFC's four divisions
Dal
11-2-2
12-3-1
13-1-3
14-4-0
15' prediction-2-2. So they have gone in a forward order until last year where they did something similar to KC the last two years against the AFC divisions(going 3-1 and 4-0 and after being at best 2-2 since 05), backing up to a record they never achieved in a while(Dallas never went 4-0 vs AFC before). This starts under the new Linehan era also. Before the season, I had them losing in Miami but I don't think it happens now. And losing to the jets isn't likely either so they're moving downward and skip over 3-1. I don't see a win in Buffalo.

Phi
11,12-2-2
13-1-3
14-4-0
15' prediction-2-2. I don't think they beat Buffalo, and they will definitely lose at NE. So they skip as well like Dallas over 3-1.

NYG
11-4-0
12,13-1-3
14-2-2
15' prediction-4-0. They went 2-2 in 10, skipping over 1-3 to go 4-0 in 11 but at that time giants were not a 1-3 team against any division. So the backup happen after the sb year and they've gone forward since. I have them skipping over 3-1 with the win over Buffalo. If they can win that, they can win in Miami. They own the jets and have recently owned NE.

Was
11-0-4
12-14-2-2
15' prediction-1-3. Washington's numbers don't factor in much, just that they have usually gone 2-2 against AFC with occasional 1-3 in 08 and 0-4 in 11. I think that's the case again because they should lose to NE. I think they beat Buffalo because of the back to back road trip in December.

vs.same place home/road matchups from the three other divisions
Dal
11-1-1
12-0-2
13-1-1
14-2-0
15' prediction-1-1. They have been going in a up and down order. In 10, they went 0-2 and in 09 they went 1-1. They apparently went out of sequence temporarily in 12 where they were supposed to be 2-0 but the matchups were Chicago and Seattle(who were good at the time). They have not stayed at one record back to back years since 08. Given how GB have played a little worse offensively I think they get payback in Green Bay with a healthy Romo and Dez. It doesn't affect GB having the top seed.

Phi
11,12-0-2
13-2-0
14-1-1
15' prediction-1-1. I think they stay at 1-1, they beat Detroit on Thanksgiving but lose to Arizona.

NYG
11-0-2
12-2-0
13-0-2
14-1-1
15' prediction-1-1. They were 0-2, 2-0, vice versa from 09-13. They don't stand much of a chance in Minnesota because of AP but giants have been strangely good against defensive teams that don't have elite offenses. However, Minnesota's looking like a tough place to go to.

Was
11-0-2
12-1-1
13,14-0-2
15' prediction-1-1. They are not good enough to go 2-0 right now. They do play a team whose number they have had in well over a decade but this team is not likely to win in Chicago. And that streak snap is due.

vs.their own division
Dal
11-2-4
12-3-3
13-5-1
14-4-2
15' prediction-3-3. Before the season I had them sweeping Washington but they're not gonna be able to play for anything the last week.

Phi
11-5-1
12-1-5
13,14-4-2
15' prediction-3-3. They jumped over two numbers to go 4-2 in 13 and stay there. They back up to 3-3 since I have them splitting in all three and the last game of season, giants will win if they have a chance to take the east or get a higher seed.

NYG
11-13-3-3
14-2-4
15' prediction-3-3. They went 4-2 in 09 and 3-3 in 10, going in a up and down order. They really should go 4-2 but kind of hard to ignore the numbers here so they don't win in Washington week 12 and split with all three.

Was
11-2-4
12-5-1
13-0-6
14-2-4
15' prediction-3-3. Washington had a fluke 5-1 year in 12, that happened as well in 05. Usually they have gone at best 3-3 any other time. Their numbers are all over the place and it comes down to the other three division rivals. I think they split with all three this year given all the circumstances.

NFC east standings prediction
New York 9-7
Dallas 8-8
Philadelphia 8-8
Washington 5-11

 

[Brees#1]

Look please if you don't like this thread go somewhere else. I already regret doing this but I went too far so might as well finish this.

NFC North

vs.NFC's three other divisions
GB
11-4-0
12,13-2-2
14-3-1
15' prediction-3-1. They already won their three, I think they lose in Arizona in the back to back road trip out west.

Det
11-13-2-2
14-3-1
15' prediction-2-2. They have been building up against the other divisions since they were winless against them for four straight years. I think they reached their high point last year and they already have lost two. I think they win the other two including at St.Louis.

Min
11-1-3
12-3-1
13-2-2
14-3-1
15' prediction-3-1. They have gone in a forward order(3-1 in 09), they skipped 2-2 in 12 and backed up in 13 while moving forward. It's hard to see them losing to Seattle at this point. I have them beating Seattle now along with St.Louis and still think they go into Arizona and win.

Chi
11-3-1
12-14-2-2
15' prediction-1-3. They only beat SF from what I see, and the numbers support that.

vs.AFC's four divisions
GB
11-12-3-1
13-2-2
14-3-1
15' prediction-4-0. They have not gone 4-0 since 07 but Denver is beatable. And the numbers have been 2-2 or 3-1 under Rodgers(minus first year). This year, that changes.

Det
11-4-0
12,13-1-3
14-2-2
15' prediction-2-2. They should beat KC and Oakland and stay at 2-2 again. They were not really going this order before 11, they were 0-4, 1-3, 1-3 before going 4-0. Since that point they've been more on track.

Min
11-0-4
12-3-1
13,14-1-3
15' prediction-2-2. They already beat the two teams at home, and I have them losing to Oakland.

Chi
11-1-3
12-3-1
13-4-0
14-1-3
15' prediction-2-2. I don't think they skipped 2-2 they reversed because in 12 they played the AFC South and their road games were Tennessee and Jacksonville. 3-1 or 4-0 was the most likely. They then reverse again and go 4-0 in 13 because of the steelers' rough start without a competent RB. There have been three different coaches but the same QB. I think the forward order sticks because Denver and at SD will be hard to win.

vs.same place home/road matchups from the three other divisions
GB
11-2-0
12-14-1-1
15' prediction-1-1. I think they are still good enough offensively to win in Carolina.

Det
11,12-1-1
13-0-2
14-1-1
15' prediction-0-2. I have them losing to Philadelphia and don't think they win in NO if saints have something to play for and given the schedule unless they get swept by TB or Carolina they will be in the race for a wild card. So off sequence happens here.

Min
11-2-0
12,13-0-2
14-2-0
15' prediction-1-1. They should beat the giants and they could beat Atlanta but it's in Atlanta and they won't lose back to back home games.

Chi
11-1-1
12-2-0
13-0-2
14-1-1
15' prediction-2-0. TB and Washington don't appear to be getting it together and it's impossible for a team like Chicago who tends to beat mediocre or bad teams only to lose to either of them.

vs.their own division
GB
11-6-0
12-5-1
13-3-2-1
14-5-1
15' prediction-6-0. GB should clear through this division to support the pattern. Note the 3-2-1, can be taken as 4-2 because GB's floor in this division is 2 losses with Rodgers. That tie was due to Rodgers not playing.

Det
11-3-3
12-0-6
13-4-2
14-5-1
15' prediction-1-5. The lions have been pushed around in division games that in 13 was when they started making headway, and had the best division records yet the last two years. I think though Chicago is their only win. They could beat Minnesota but I think Minnesota will pull it out and lions have problems with AP.

Min
11-0-6
12-4-2
13-2-3-1
14-1-5
15' prediction-3-3. The numbers are screwed up here because of that tie. But I think Minnesota's ceiling is 3-3 as too many intangibles are going on. They would go 4-2 if they split with GB but GB's having a top seed year. Next year they are not sweeping Detroit likely and this is the best chance to sweep Chicago. I don't think it happens.

Chi
11,12-3-3
13-2-4
14-1-5
15' prediction-2-4. I think they are simply too mediocre to go 5-1, 4-2, or even 3-3 right now so they reverse direction to go 2-4.

NFC north standings prediction
Green Bay 14-2
Minnesota 9-7
Chicago 7-9
Detroit 5-11


NFC South and West later tonight.

 

[Brees#1]

NFC South

vs.NFC's three other divisions
Car
11-0-4
12-14-2-2
15' prediction-3-1. The skipped 1-3 I think was a result of Carolina being 0-4 the previous year so I think it's going forward here. I have Carolina winning in NJ and against Philadelphia and Washington.

NO
11-3-1
12,13-2-2
14-3-1
15' prediction-3-1. Saints have been 3-1 or 2-2 since 05. I think they should beat the giants and redskins. Redskins have been a thorn but they are not the same team.

Atl
11-2-2
12-4-0
13-1-3
14-0-4
15' prediction-4-0. Atlanta has already won all four games. They used to go 1-3, 2-2, 4-0 with ranging orders from 05-13. That changed last year, and I had seen 3-1 before the season not thinking back to back road wins was possible.

TB
11-1-3
12-14-0-4
15-1-3. I think they win in Washington.

vs.AFC's four divisions
Car
11-3-1
12-2-2
13-3-1
14-1-3
15' prediction-3-1. I think they reverse back to 3-1 because of the division they are playing as Tennessee is beatable. Don't see a Indy win.

NO
11-4-0
12,13-2-2
14-1-3
15' prediction-2-2. They went 2-2 in 10 and looked to be going back and forth between that and 4-0 until last year when it appeared things were falling off. I'm going to say because it's the AFC South they can win the two home games but the two road games are harder. I don't think they win in Houston and lose in Indy.

Atl
11-3-1
12-4-0
13-1-3
14-0-4
15' prediction-3-1. I think they should beat Jacksonville and Tennessee. But I have Indy winning.

TB
11-1-3
12-3-1
13-2-2
14-1-3
15' prediction-1-3. They beat Jacksonville. Their only game left is in Indy and that's predictable.

vs.same place home/road matchups from three other divisions
Car
11-1-1
12-0-2
13-2-0
14-0-2
15' prediction-1-1. They did not go 1-1 last year so they make up for that this year. They won in Seattle, they lose in Green Bay.

NO
11-1-1
12-0-2
13-2-0
14-0-2
15' prediction-1-1. I think they should beat Detroit if they are in contention still. They should have gone 1-1 last year statistically.

Atl
11,12-2-0
13,14-1-1
15' prediction-1-1. They beat Minnesota but until I saw how they played at home against the three teams they played so far, I thought they would win in SF. But it's gonna be a bigger challenge than I thought and if GB could only score 17 points, Atlanta could be in trouble.

TB
11-0-2
12-14-1-1
15' prediction-0-2. The last three years TB has won their road games here, but this year they go to St.Louis on short rest and the season for them is gonna be a wash by that point anyway, never mind the game the week after.

vs.their own division
Car
11-2-4
12-3-3
13-5-1
14-4-2
15' prediction-4-2. They look to be handed gifts again by TB. I think they don't beat Atlanta twice in three weeks and don't win the other game in NO. They really should be 3-3 and for that to happen it would have to be losing the last game to TB, which I don't see, which could be for the division.

NO
11-5-1
12-3-3
13-5-1
14-3-3
15' prediction-4-2. I know I had them going 3-3 before the season but just don't think they lose the other game in TB if they have a chance. And the last game of the season, they will be on a winning run going in and could have a chance to give Carolina the division. Also it can't be ignored they have swept them every other year.

Atl
11,12-3-3
13-1-5
14-5-1
15' prediction-3-3. And this is why they will lose the last game, they have had a odd record pattern each year against their division rivals since 05. They went 5-1 last year and that's not likely to happen b2b. Plus, the saints recent win puts it to rest. Plus, they go to TB and Carolina back to back weeks. They won those last year back to back but barely. Not sure it can happen again.

TB
11-2-4
12-3-3
13-1-5
14-0-6
15' prediction-1-5. Doesn't look to be any better and still getting pushed around in division games.

NFC south standings prediction
Carolina 11-5
Atlanta 11-5
New Orleans 10-6
Tampa Bay 3-13

So Carolina actually will hold onto the division. However, if NO wins today then Atlanta wins week 11, and Carolina does not win the division.


NFC West

vs.NFC's three other divisions
Sea
11-2-2
12-3-1
13-4-0
14-3-1
15' prediction-2-2. They already beat Detroit and Chicago and lost to GB. I have them losing to Minnesota too.

Ari
11-2-2
12-1-3
13-3-1
14-4-0
15' prediction-3-1. They lose to Minnesota as I have pointed out numerous times.

SF
11,12-3-1
13-2-2
14-4-0
15' predoction-1-3. The Harbaugh era is over and therefore, so was their winning success. They are back to mediocrity and as such they start out there. I had them beating nobody but they beat Minnesota.

StL
11,12-0-4
13-2-2
14-1-3
15' prediction-1-3. They have struggled recently and as of now 2-2 is their ceiling due to average offensive play. That could change with Gurley now in the future. They already lost to GB and don't have what it takes to beat Minnesota. When they play Detroit they will be in a three game slump so I have them losing that one as well.

vs.AFC's four divisions
Sea
11-1-3
12,13-3-1
14-2-2
15' prediction-2-2. They stay 2-2 again because I don't see them winning in Baltimore. They could but think they will have problems with their oline issues and being in Baltimore in December.

Ari
11,12-1-3
13-4-0
14-3-1
15' prediction-3-1. This was what was predicted before the season and I see it playing out that way.

SF
11-3-1
12-4-0
13-3-1
14-1-3
15' prediction-2-2. With the win against Baltimore, they will cover the missed 2-2 with a win in Cleveland.

StL
11,12-1-3
13-3-1
14-2-2
15' prediction-2-2. They win against Cleveland this week and pull off a win in Baltimore.

vs.same place home/road matchups from the three other divisions
Sea
11-1-1
12-14-2-0
15' prediction-1-1. They already lost one of them but wins in Dallas with no Romo there.

Ari
11-14-1-1
15' prediction-2-0. They have gone 1-1 every year since 08 when they went 0-2. They have won at home every year since 09. They already won their home game against NO. But I think that ends with them also winning in Philadelphia and establishing themselves as a first round bye contender, that was already started last year and Palmer was hurt before the Atlanta game.

SF
11-2-0
12-1-1
13-2-0
14-1-1
15' prediction-1-1. They went back and forth between 1-1 and 2-0 the last four years. I don't think that continues as they are not the same team and just showed that when they lost in NY. They should be able to beat Atlanta week 9.

StL
11-1-1
12-2-0
13,14-1-1
15' prediction-1-1. This could explain the Washington loss. They should beat TB as already pointed out.

vs.their own division
Sea
11,12-3-3
13-4-2
14-5-1
15' prediction-4-2. I think with what's being shown so far is enough to say they won't sweep Arizona again.

Ari
11-4-2
12-1-5
13-2-4
14-3-3
15' prediction-4-2. The last three years have been building up. They lost one to StL but should win the other one and sweep SF and beat Seattle once.

SF
11-5-1
12-3-2-1
13-5-1
14-2-4
15' prediction-1-5. They win the last game against StL. The numbers don't support it but it's really the best they can do.

StL
11-0-6
12-4-1-1
13-1-5
14-2-4
15' prediction-3-3. They were out of sequence a couple times in 10 and 12 but probably a result of bouncing back from poor division showings, but now there appears to be a slow movement. Next year may be their breakout year if they go 4-2. Split with all three as last game won't matter.

NFC west standings prediction
Arizona 12-4
Seattle 9-7
St.Louis 7-9
San Francisco 5-11

Arizona won't even need the last game to win the division.

 

[Brees#1]

NFC predicted playoff picture
Green Bay 14-2(bye)
Arizona 12-4(bye)
Carolina 11-5
New York 9-7
wild cards
Atlanta 11-5
New Orleans 10-6


Now I can't believe I went through all this. I need to change my surroundings. I will check back this thread at season's end.