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Every week on Insider last season, I gave my bold predictions heading into the weekend. I'm doing the same thing now, only taking it from a season-long view. Here are my 10 bold predictions for 2013:
1. The Texas Longhorns will win at least 11 games.
If you have been reading my columns throughout the summer, you know I'm a believer in the Longhorns. To me, they are this season's version of 2012's Florida Gators -- a team coming off a shaky campaign that will emerge as a surprise national title contender as the talent comes together.
This is the most experienced team in the country -- the Horns have 19 returning starters, and their offensive line boasts 124 career starts. They are set at QB with starter David Ash, as well as capable backups, and they could have the league's best defense after some injuries and poor tackling set it back last season. The schedule isn't easy, with BYU and Ole Miss on the nonconference slate and the usual suspects on the Big 12 schedule. But they'll have revenge on the mind in a home game against Kansas State and the Red River Rivalry against Oklahoma, and they get fellow Big 12 contender Oklahoma State at home.
Five of my nine sets of power ratings call for an unbeaten season, and I will make the bold prediction that the Horns get at least 11 wins for the first time since 2009.
2. The SEC will send a record number of teams to bowls (11 or 12).
There is no question that the SEC has stood above the rest of the college football world for much of the past decade, and they could break another record by sending as many as 12 teams to a bowl this season.
Alabama, LSU, Texas A&M, Georgia, South Carolina and Florida are all locks. Ole Miss will be next in line with eight or more wins this season, followed by Vanderbilt, which will take advantage of a soft nonconference slate. At least two of the three first-year head coaches at Arkansas, Auburn and Tennessee will get their teams to bowl eligibility with six wins, and look for Missouri to have a bounce-back season and get to its eighth bowl in nine seasons. The only two teams that will definitely be on the outside looking in are Mississippi State (brutal schedule) and Kentucky (rebuilding).
3. Baylor's first-time starting QB Bryce Petty will lead the Big 12 in passing and total offense.
Last season, one of the major questions in Waco, Texas, was how the Bears would replace their first-ever Heisman winner in Robert Griffin III. The question was answered resoundingly by Nick Florence, who broke many of Griffin's single-season school records by throwing for 4,309 yards and rushing for 568 more.
This season, Baylor will have its third different quarterback behind center in as many seasons as the talented Petty (6-foot-3, 235 pounds) takes over. Longtime NFL draft scout Gil Brandt told me last year that Petty would be the next star not only at Baylor, but on the national scene. Petty will benefit from lots of talent around him (including RB Lache Seastrunk) and the QB-friendly system of underrated head coach Art Briles.
4. Florida State will average 40-plus points per game with a first-time starting quarterback.
Last season, the Seminoles came close to cracking the 40-point barrier for the first time since Danny Kanell was behind center, averaging 39.3 points per game. Despite the loss of the first quarterback taken in this year's NFL draft, EJ Manuel, I will call for the Seminoles to improve their points per game average this season.
They return seven starters, including three linemen who earned second-team ACC honors last season and WR Rashad Greene, who has led them in receiving each of the past two seasons. They also have a dynamic 1-2 punch at running back in Devonta Freeman (speed) and James Wilder (power).
The only question comes at the quarterback spot, as highly talented redshirt freshman Jameis Winston takes over. Despite his inexperience, I am expecting him to have a similar debut to what we saw out of Johnny Manziel, Marcus Mariota, Everett Golson and Brett Hundley last season.
5. Wisconsin will have three fewer losses this season but won't win its division.
The Badgers have won three straight Big Ten championships and now have made six Rose Bowls since 1993, which is, shockingly, one more appearance than Michigan and Ohio State have combined during that time.
This season, Wisconsin returns 14 starters, including an outstanding pair of running backs in Melvin Gordon and James White. The schedule is favorable for new head coach Gary Andersen, as the Badgers avoid Nebraska, Michigan State and Michigan out of the Legends division; they also host Northwestern.
Last season's team took advantage of Ohio State's postseason ineligibility and won the Big Ten despite a 7-5 regular season. This season's team should win 10 games, but a loss to the Buckeyes in Columbus, Ohio, on Sept. 28 will prevent it from appearing in its fourth consecutive Rose Bowl.
6. The best bet to win the Heisman? The field.
In each of the past four seasons, a player has come out of nowhere to take home the Heisman Trophy, including Cam Newton in 2010 and Manziel last season. It would not surprise me at all if a player like Florida State QB Winston, Stanford QB Kevin Hogan, Baylor RB Seastrunk or QB Petty, Michigan QB Devin Gardner, Miami RB Duke Johnson or QB Stephen Morris surprises by earning an invite to New York and a shot to take home the most prestigious award in college sports.
7. Marshall will go from five wins to a double-digit win total.
A decade ago, the Thundering Herd were one of the top non-AQ programs in the country as they produced NFL players like Chad Pennington, Randy Moss and Byron Leftwich while winning several MAC championships. However, since their move to Conference USA, they have struggled, failing to win more than seven games in every season since 2003.
This season, the Herd look poised to return to the national scene. The offense has returning QB Rakeem Cato, who threw for 4,201 yards last season, a deep running back corps and a very good wide receiver in Tommy Shuler (1,138 yards last season). The defense, thanks to several BCS-level transfers, looks improved, and the schedule sets up nicely, thanks to the departures of annual C-USA contenders UCF, Houston and SMU to the American Athletic Conference. The Herd are my pick to be the nation's most-improved team.
8. Southern Miss will go from 0-12 to a bowl game.
Ellis Johnson was let go after his one season as head coach resulted in an 0-12 record, but this season, new head coach Todd Monken steps into a great situation. The Golden Eagles have one of the more underrated defenses in the country with nine starters back, and, even though the nonconference schedule is a nightmare with Nebraska, Arkansas and Boise State all on the road, the Golden Eagles avoid the two best teams in the C-USA West (Tulsa and Rice) and get home games against C-USA newcomers FIU, North Texas, Florida Atlantic and Middle Tennessee. I will call for the Golden Eagles to improve their record by six wins and qualify for a bowl this season.
9. Despite losing multiyear starting quarterbacks, look for Iowa, California and Georgia Tech to have improved numbers from their new starters this season.
Iowa QB Jake Rudock has zero career passing attempts, but he'll be an upgrade over James Vandenberg's 2,249 passing yards and 7:8 TD:INT ratio last season. Cal should see its best QB play in years with true freshman Jared Goff, who possesses the skill set to flourish in new head coach Sonny Dykes' high-flying offense, behind center. Lastly, while Tevin Washington fared well for Georgia Tech last season, his replacement, Vad Lee, is even more talented and should put up better stats.
10. Kent State will go from 11 wins to missing out on a bowl.
Last season, the Golden Flashes' loss to Northern Illinois in two overtimes in the MAC Championship game was the only thing preventing them from making an Orange Bowl appearance. This season, they have a new head coach in Paul Haynes and return just 11 starters, they but do have their outstanding running back duo of Dri Archer and Trayion Durham back, along with three-time All-MAC defensive tackle Roosevelt Nix.
The problem for this season's team is a schedule that features road trips to LSU and Penn State, along with games against MAC powers Bowling Green, Northern Illinois and Ball State -- all in the first seven games. They could easily lose all five of those games and still have to play Ohio on the road. Look for them to go from a school-record 11 wins to only six this season -- while failing to make a bowl.
Texas Longhorns will win 11 or more games, plus more bold predictions - College Football - ESPN
1. The Texas Longhorns will win at least 11 games.
If you have been reading my columns throughout the summer, you know I'm a believer in the Longhorns. To me, they are this season's version of 2012's Florida Gators -- a team coming off a shaky campaign that will emerge as a surprise national title contender as the talent comes together.
This is the most experienced team in the country -- the Horns have 19 returning starters, and their offensive line boasts 124 career starts. They are set at QB with starter David Ash, as well as capable backups, and they could have the league's best defense after some injuries and poor tackling set it back last season. The schedule isn't easy, with BYU and Ole Miss on the nonconference slate and the usual suspects on the Big 12 schedule. But they'll have revenge on the mind in a home game against Kansas State and the Red River Rivalry against Oklahoma, and they get fellow Big 12 contender Oklahoma State at home.
Five of my nine sets of power ratings call for an unbeaten season, and I will make the bold prediction that the Horns get at least 11 wins for the first time since 2009.
2. The SEC will send a record number of teams to bowls (11 or 12).
There is no question that the SEC has stood above the rest of the college football world for much of the past decade, and they could break another record by sending as many as 12 teams to a bowl this season.
Alabama, LSU, Texas A&M, Georgia, South Carolina and Florida are all locks. Ole Miss will be next in line with eight or more wins this season, followed by Vanderbilt, which will take advantage of a soft nonconference slate. At least two of the three first-year head coaches at Arkansas, Auburn and Tennessee will get their teams to bowl eligibility with six wins, and look for Missouri to have a bounce-back season and get to its eighth bowl in nine seasons. The only two teams that will definitely be on the outside looking in are Mississippi State (brutal schedule) and Kentucky (rebuilding).
3. Baylor's first-time starting QB Bryce Petty will lead the Big 12 in passing and total offense.
Last season, one of the major questions in Waco, Texas, was how the Bears would replace their first-ever Heisman winner in Robert Griffin III. The question was answered resoundingly by Nick Florence, who broke many of Griffin's single-season school records by throwing for 4,309 yards and rushing for 568 more.
This season, Baylor will have its third different quarterback behind center in as many seasons as the talented Petty (6-foot-3, 235 pounds) takes over. Longtime NFL draft scout Gil Brandt told me last year that Petty would be the next star not only at Baylor, but on the national scene. Petty will benefit from lots of talent around him (including RB Lache Seastrunk) and the QB-friendly system of underrated head coach Art Briles.
4. Florida State will average 40-plus points per game with a first-time starting quarterback.
Last season, the Seminoles came close to cracking the 40-point barrier for the first time since Danny Kanell was behind center, averaging 39.3 points per game. Despite the loss of the first quarterback taken in this year's NFL draft, EJ Manuel, I will call for the Seminoles to improve their points per game average this season.
They return seven starters, including three linemen who earned second-team ACC honors last season and WR Rashad Greene, who has led them in receiving each of the past two seasons. They also have a dynamic 1-2 punch at running back in Devonta Freeman (speed) and James Wilder (power).
The only question comes at the quarterback spot, as highly talented redshirt freshman Jameis Winston takes over. Despite his inexperience, I am expecting him to have a similar debut to what we saw out of Johnny Manziel, Marcus Mariota, Everett Golson and Brett Hundley last season.
5. Wisconsin will have three fewer losses this season but won't win its division.
The Badgers have won three straight Big Ten championships and now have made six Rose Bowls since 1993, which is, shockingly, one more appearance than Michigan and Ohio State have combined during that time.
This season, Wisconsin returns 14 starters, including an outstanding pair of running backs in Melvin Gordon and James White. The schedule is favorable for new head coach Gary Andersen, as the Badgers avoid Nebraska, Michigan State and Michigan out of the Legends division; they also host Northwestern.
Last season's team took advantage of Ohio State's postseason ineligibility and won the Big Ten despite a 7-5 regular season. This season's team should win 10 games, but a loss to the Buckeyes in Columbus, Ohio, on Sept. 28 will prevent it from appearing in its fourth consecutive Rose Bowl.
6. The best bet to win the Heisman? The field.
In each of the past four seasons, a player has come out of nowhere to take home the Heisman Trophy, including Cam Newton in 2010 and Manziel last season. It would not surprise me at all if a player like Florida State QB Winston, Stanford QB Kevin Hogan, Baylor RB Seastrunk or QB Petty, Michigan QB Devin Gardner, Miami RB Duke Johnson or QB Stephen Morris surprises by earning an invite to New York and a shot to take home the most prestigious award in college sports.
7. Marshall will go from five wins to a double-digit win total.
A decade ago, the Thundering Herd were one of the top non-AQ programs in the country as they produced NFL players like Chad Pennington, Randy Moss and Byron Leftwich while winning several MAC championships. However, since their move to Conference USA, they have struggled, failing to win more than seven games in every season since 2003.
This season, the Herd look poised to return to the national scene. The offense has returning QB Rakeem Cato, who threw for 4,201 yards last season, a deep running back corps and a very good wide receiver in Tommy Shuler (1,138 yards last season). The defense, thanks to several BCS-level transfers, looks improved, and the schedule sets up nicely, thanks to the departures of annual C-USA contenders UCF, Houston and SMU to the American Athletic Conference. The Herd are my pick to be the nation's most-improved team.
8. Southern Miss will go from 0-12 to a bowl game.
Ellis Johnson was let go after his one season as head coach resulted in an 0-12 record, but this season, new head coach Todd Monken steps into a great situation. The Golden Eagles have one of the more underrated defenses in the country with nine starters back, and, even though the nonconference schedule is a nightmare with Nebraska, Arkansas and Boise State all on the road, the Golden Eagles avoid the two best teams in the C-USA West (Tulsa and Rice) and get home games against C-USA newcomers FIU, North Texas, Florida Atlantic and Middle Tennessee. I will call for the Golden Eagles to improve their record by six wins and qualify for a bowl this season.
9. Despite losing multiyear starting quarterbacks, look for Iowa, California and Georgia Tech to have improved numbers from their new starters this season.
Iowa QB Jake Rudock has zero career passing attempts, but he'll be an upgrade over James Vandenberg's 2,249 passing yards and 7:8 TD:INT ratio last season. Cal should see its best QB play in years with true freshman Jared Goff, who possesses the skill set to flourish in new head coach Sonny Dykes' high-flying offense, behind center. Lastly, while Tevin Washington fared well for Georgia Tech last season, his replacement, Vad Lee, is even more talented and should put up better stats.
10. Kent State will go from 11 wins to missing out on a bowl.
Last season, the Golden Flashes' loss to Northern Illinois in two overtimes in the MAC Championship game was the only thing preventing them from making an Orange Bowl appearance. This season, they have a new head coach in Paul Haynes and return just 11 starters, they but do have their outstanding running back duo of Dri Archer and Trayion Durham back, along with three-time All-MAC defensive tackle Roosevelt Nix.
The problem for this season's team is a schedule that features road trips to LSU and Penn State, along with games against MAC powers Bowling Green, Northern Illinois and Ball State -- all in the first seven games. They could easily lose all five of those games and still have to play Ohio on the road. Look for them to go from a school-record 11 wins to only six this season -- while failing to make a bowl.
Texas Longhorns will win 11 or more games, plus more bold predictions - College Football - ESPN
