paxton lynch to the.....

[Broncos6482]

I'm a firm believer in BPA but I certainly went after pass defense on SportsHoopla's Mock draft earlier this month with the following:

1.28.28 : Chris Jones - DE - Mississippi St
2.28.60 : Karl Joseph - SS - West Virginia
4.28.128 : James Bradberry - CB - Samford
5.25.166 : Devon Cajuste - WR/TE - Stanford
5.28.169 : Alex McCalister - OLB - Florida
6.28.207 : Harlan Miller - CB - Southeastern Louisiana
7.28.253 : Ted Karras - OG - Illinois

So yeah, no QB and I had the option to take Lynch and passed on him. But the Chiefs aren't BPA drafters I don't believe. Chiefs had a DE and S retire and a CB and G leave in FA. They also have a S on Franchise Tag. Too many holes to go after a QB.

I think you have to find a balance between BPA and drafting for need. Obviously the biggest mistake you can make is reach for a lesser player simply because he fits a need. However, I don't think simply taking BPA is wise either, otherwise you can end up overloaded at one position and thin at another.

And it's not like teams will only have one area of need to address, anyway. For the Broncos case, they are thin at safety, defensive line, and quarterback. So maybe when it comes their time to draft the 4 best quarterbacks are already taken, in that case reaching for a qb simply because it's their area of biggest need wouldn't be wise. So they can take BPA at either safety or defensive line. Basically I think the best drafting teams strike a balance between the two.

 

[Clayton]

I think you have to find a balance between BPA and drafting for need. Obviously the biggest mistake you can make is reach for a lesser player simply because he fits a need. However, I don't think simply taking BPA is wise either, otherwise you can end up overloaded at one position and thin at another.

And it's not like teams will only have one area of need to address, anyway. For the Broncos case, they are thin at safety, defensive line, and quarterback. So maybe when it comes their time to draft the 4 best quarterbacks are already taken, in that case reaching for a qb simply because it's their area of biggest need wouldn't be wise. So they can take BPA at either safety or defensive line. Basically I think the best drafting teams strike a balance between the two.

Lately the best drafting teams have been drafting an elite defensive player in rd1 and supplementing that player with late round picks and BPA picks that somehow turn out to be good to great players. Once that is established, the best teams get a few veterans on board and make a run at a Super Bowl.

Chiefs aren't that lucky. *sticking my neck out* You can't really point to many late round/udfa guys on their team that made it big. DJ was a highly touted first rounder but not at a position to build around in today's game. Just important and really good. Berry was a highly touted first rounder but not quite at the level to build around. Close, though. Dontari Poe is the one guy you look at to build around but his numbers dropped last year and he just looked banged up. Justin Houston is a later round guy that fits the elite drafting mold but his recent injury history is a big blow. Still not on the level of importance as Von Miller, JJ Watt, Aaron Donald, Khalil Mack, Earl Thomas but a pro bowl guy when healthy.

I actually don't think Sean Smith was all that great but he was a decent CB that the Chiefs will need to replace. Peters was boom/bust last year which is great for a rookie but he pretty much has to stay the course and not get complacent like other boom/bust CBs in the past like Janoris Jenkins. I think Peters have the physical playmaker profile to compliment DJ and Berry to create something Seattle-ish but the Chiefs need better CB play and a better push from their dline.

Its my personal belief that the Chiefs need to go mostly defense. Its easier to win with an elite defense and an average offense than it is with an elite offense and an average defense.

 

[Fountain City Blues]

You're going to run less?

Considering the Chiefs were #1 in running the ball, per outsiders, even when they didn't even have Jamaal Charles, I would say the incentive to do so is near zero. Why Stop running for 4.6-5+ yards a clip when you have 2 competent along with a stud in Charles? When you factor in Alex Smith rates very well, even amongst other QB's, on just playaction passes and the incentive to pass more is near zero, imo. The Chiefs are creative enough to use Alex's mobility, and WR's, to supplement the running game as well so I don't think it'll at all be one dimensional or predictable per se. Running the ball won't be a drag on the offense- it'll make everything else much more efficient.

I mean if a player does not get enough targets he's going to miss catches

How so? The Chiefs weren't dropping all that many passes as opposed to years past because quite simply- they're a lot better than the scrubs being thrown out there for a decade plus up until 2015. Maclin had a near league low drop rate if you believe PFF and that corresponds just as well with the Chip Kelly Eagles. The Chiefs were tied for the 9th (or within thousandths of a percent of the Bills, another team which makes your hypothesis here troublesome) lowest drop rate per sportingcharts. I don't really see how Alex is the overwhelming cause of these drops. Not claiming Smith is Aaron Rodgers accuracy wise at all, but I don't think the hot hand hypothesis works at all for more established WR's.

This is more plausible though for much less experienced receiving options and Conley did have the dropsies at times though; or at the very least wasn't tough with the ball. As a Chiefs fan, you hope to see more plays in the playoffs vs the Texans where you just see Smith shove the ball into Conley's very tall, and very fast, frame into the endzone; much like you might see Matt Ryan shove it to Julio Jones. Alex Smith being the reason his receivers have been historically drops prone doesn't really add up when you look at who he has had.

Alex Smith hits rookie Chris Conley for 9-yard TD

The problem is not the receivers more than it is Smith. He's a game manager. It seems lately there has to be a elite receiver at every position on the field now for qbs like him.

While I agree he is more 'game manager' than game changer, He's not discernably below average as a QB either- he's happily average with a high floor (low INT%, acceptable YPA) which means Alex Smith is seldom the reason his team loses per se; I see Chiefs fans make up crazy reasons all the time about why he is significantly worse or better probably because of just that, but that's a discussion for a Chiefs board, not really here.

If you're saying he'd need an elite OL, and elite receiving corp, and elite, pass happy, coaching staff to put up elite numbers like 4500 yards 8.5 YPA, sure I agree. No disagreement there. Does that amount to it being more Smith being the problem than the receivers? No, not really. Maclin had a 1100/15 game season which is rock solid. Kelce had about 850 which while it wasn't what some wanted, there far, far, far, from terrible from a TE; quite good even in fact. Pretty big contrast from the Dwayne Bowes and Michael Crabtrees of the world which are just more drop prone than many would like even in their primes.

Bottom line, is Alex Smith carrying a team on his back, no. Can he win a SB if you build a great team around him, yes. Despite a plodding offense and a really startling start, the Chiefs were 9th in PPG, and 3rd in weighted DVOA on offense; 14th in passing, 1 in rushing. Sure, some of that is skewed by an epic snowball effect after the 1-5 start, but the data doesn't show anything that makes this look particularly flukey (Data projects the Chiefs to be an 11.7 win team in 2015; Denver was 9.7 for giggles) unless you just believe Charcandrick West and Spencer Ware just aren't good RB's and had horseshoes shoved up their asses. So again, we have Alex Smith, with solid receiving options and poor pass protection, being competent but not particularly game-changing on the passing side of things- still is plenty enough with the team around him.

I would LOVE an upgrade at QB as there isn't an outrageous amount of pressure on maintaining an elite defense and offense, but I am just not sure Paxton Lynch is a guy you can develop even if you sit him a year. I'll support either decision as Reid has a relatively good history with QB's, but I have my own personal skepticisms with Lynch for the timebeing.

 

[Fountain City Blues]

Sound Paxton Lynch alert: CLEV and DAL have inquired about trading back into back part of first round, per sources. Let's see if it heats up

 

[NinerSickness]

You forgot the term "CFL" in your title.

 

[TBBishop]

I think he'll be gone before 31 because GMs are stupid but if he's still on the board, he's a Bronco

 

[NWPATSFAN]

Sound Paxton Lynch alert: CLEV and DAL have inquired about trading back into back part of first round, per sources. Let's see if it heats up

Interesting. This is what keeps the draft exciting for me. So many experts predict this and that. Then all of a sudden there's a run on certain players. Throw in a trade or two and first rounders are going mid/late 2nd.

 

[Fountain City Blues]

Through 22 picks, no Lynch still. About now is when it should get interesting for Lynch.

 

[megalodon30]

He's wearing sunglasses at night. What a delta bravo.

 

[tabascojet]

He's wearing sunglasses at night. What a delta bravo.

to hide his forthcoming tears.....

 

[Manster7588]

To the Denver Broncos

 

[megalodon30]

to the Broncos to become Super Bowl 51 MVP.

Go Broncos!

 

[megalodon30]

Eesh. 40th on Kiper's big board.

 

[Manster7588]

Eesh. 40th on Kiper's big board.

Kipers an idiot so make of it what you want.

 

[megalodon30]

to hide his forthcoming tears.....

Hey, you were right. Crying like a baby.

 

[cdumler7]

Eesh. 40th on Kiper's big board.

He was 20th on Mayock's

 

[megalodon30]

He was 20th on Mayock's

That's not great news. Mayock had Manziel as his 10th best prospect a couple years ago.

 

[cdumler7]

That's not great news. Mayock had Manziel as his 10th best prospect a couple years ago.

Talent wasn't really Manziel's problem though. He just couldn't stop partying

 

[Duffman]

Apparently with several teams trying to trade back into the 1st round to get Lynch Denver probably had to give up 1 of their 3rd's but they have a 2nd one a few picks later so it's not a huge deal.

 

[megalodon30]

Talent wasn't really Manziel's problem though. He just couldn't stop partying

He was undersized and scrambled too often. And the partying was a red flag even before he got to the NFL. Considering him a top 10 prospect was a bit of a stretch.