Panda contract?

[msgkings322]

Fair points, all, but I would take some exception to the bolded. I don't necessarily agree that just because NY, LA, TX, or Bos would pay more for him, that we could afford to outbid them (see Tanaka). The high end of "the market" likely doesn't include us.

But again, no one here has visibility into the revenue situation, and that is obviously rapidly changing.

Fair enough, but I continue to hope that our ownership understands the new Dodger-driven numbers and will at least try to keep up to some extent. Tanaka we didn't need to get involved with, but Panda we kinda do.

 

[SF11704]

Fair points, all, but I would take some exception to the bolded. I don't necessarily agree that just because NY, LA, TX, or Bos would pay more for him, that we could afford to outbid them (see Tanaka). The high end of "the market" likely doesn't include us.

But again, no one here has visibility into the revenue situation, and that is obviously rapidly changing.

I think that Mays-Fan has hit on one of the more subtle aspects of all this. The market isn't level nor is it really designed to be. Those teams with the money can almost make an 'elite' free agent untouchable by the rest of the market. tanaka is a good example. Howe many teams would actually be willing to go to the extent that the NYY did. I think Mays-Fan actually identified the playing field. Living in NY I HATED this approach for as long as I can remember. It always seems that the NYY got whatever they wanted whenever they wanted it. Always seemed to be the same 4-6 teams in the mix for these high-end free agents. Do I think Tanaka is worth 22M a year. No, but it doesn't matter. No matter what he does he will not be a complete loss for them. 12-15 wins is still a nice number to bring home. But, there is another side of this that we now see with the LA influx of money. Much of what the NYY did in the past was also put in place to stop BOS from gaining the edge. 14 wins may not be worth 22M but not giving thiose 14 wins to BOS also has a value to them. Makes the road for BOS just a little harder to climb. This is what I sense with the Doyers now. Every move they make, regardless of cost seems is always looked at in relationship to what it does to us in the end. i don't think we can spend as freely as them .... but we will have to spend to stay in the hunt ...

 

[SFGRTB]

Pablo was MVP of the 2012 W.S., but he's also been the MVP of the marketing department ever since he arrived in SF.

This is going to be a topic all year, and likely one of the biggest of the offseason. I just hope that there's no bad blood after it's all settled and this isn't drawn out. It's not off to a good start, reading some of the notes from this. Sounds like the Giants made a low ball offer, but that's pretty typical early in negotiations. Sounds like Pablo's agent took it a different way.

 

[MarcoPolo]

We've had this discussion already.

What did we decide?

There was no decision, per se, but a lot of the discussion was similar to what's in this thread, like :

On the open-market, he will likely be able to get 6 or 7 years and 15M+.

Thinking this through, if Panda will take a Pence to sign, we should do that yesterday.

If he balloons up, several AL teams would trade for him as a DH.

tzill made a comment that at worst if Panda got a 'Pence', then the Giants would get fair value, based on his WAR. I argued against that. I think we finally agreed to disagree.

 

[tzill]

If you could guarantee me 2010 MVP Pablo Sandoval, then 5 years $90 mil total is a steal, but you can't.

But instead of the Panda, he's turned into "IMAX" these last few years, his weight wobbles more than his bobblehead.

Overpaying for Pablo would be a mistake, I'd give him 4 years $50 mil at the most, and add clauses for the standard awards, playoffs, weight levels. 4 years $50 mil total might be overpaying.

Pre Posey, Pablo was the face of the 'chise, his hats sell well apparently. But given the finances, and the current payroll setup, I can't imagine Sabean bending over and offering $90 mil for this guy. He isn't worth it.

You won't get him for 4/50. You'd just insult him. He won't sign any significant weight clause.

It's going to take 5/90 or close to it. We'd be foolish not to do it.

 

[Mays-Fan]

You won't get him for 4/50. You'd just insult him. He won't sign any significant weight clause.

It's going to take 5/90 or close to it. We'd be foolish not to do it.

If we have the budget for it and it won't significantly impact our ability to pursue other quality players as needed, I'm good with that, esp if Panda is serious about his conditioning and not just getting fit for a one-time contract show.

He has the talent to be a top 5 MLB 3B. And he is obviously a huge fan favorite, perhaps as much a face of the team as anyone else when he is playing at or near his potential.

It all hinges on the revenue side...

 

[Band of Brothers]

Sandoval was injured today with what is being called a gash to his hand by Bochy. He did hit a HR after the injury so it must not be too serious but it is something to keep a close eye on.

 

[MarcoPolo]

You won't get him for 4/50. You'd just insult him. He won't sign any significant weight clause.

It's going to take 5/90 or close to it. We'd be foolish not to do it.

As you've said over and over. I disagree. I don't want to see him signed for 5 years, and I disagree with your arguments why 'we'd be foolish not to do it'

 

[dredinis21]

My stance on Panda is simple and based on the FO answering a couple long term questions. First, what is the plan with regards to Posey's future position, if not at C? That affects Posey, Belt, Panda, possibly whoever the G's decide will man LF. Without this answered, you cannot start to piece together their intentions. Maybe the 3 yr deal was offered because they have a long term plan to move Posey to 3rd once Susac gets more seasoning.

The Giants fan in me wants them to sign Panda because he has been my favorite position player not named Posey since he hit his first triple at AT&T and belly flopped the slide with the size of his stomach being the only reason why his chest and not his arms hit the bag first. Much like Timmeh, he has been a marketing savior for this franchise post Bonds and his positive attitude is one of the driving forces in that clubhouse. Merchandise alone could drive his price up much like it did Timmeh. 5/90 given what he brings to the club may very well be a steal for someone who was once, and for some still do, considered him to be part of a relatively young nucleus.

The business owner in me wishes I was a fly on the wall while the FO is having discussions towards what to do with Posey and the chain reaction it causes.

 

[SFGRTB]

I feel like this will fit well here:

Forbes: SF Giants, Oakland A?s are filthy rich ? check these numbers - John Shea

 

[moxie]

I feel like this will fit well here:

Forbes: SF Giants, Oakland A?s are filthy rich ? check these numbers - John Shea

Kinda puts it all back into perspective, huh? A million here, a million there... doesn't seem so bad when we're talking Billions.

 

[NBKLee]

You won't get him for 4/50. You'd just insult him. He won't sign any significant weight clause.

It's going to take 5/90 or close to it. We'd be foolish not to do it.

Damned if you do, damned if you don't. Not saying Pablo isn't worth more, but he's shown a tendency to not be in shape. As you get older, its harder to get in shape, and if you don't have a background or history of doing so, its harder to learn later.


Not going to compare MVP Pablo to Rowland, but overpaying for the extra large Pablo would be just a big of mistake as overpaying for Rowland in the past.


Its not my money, so if the Giants want to bend over and shell it out fine, but I hope folks enjoy the increase in parking fees / concussion prices, panda hats.

 

[tzill]

As you've said over and over. I disagree. I don't want to see him signed for 5 years, and I disagree with your arguments why 'we'd be foolish not to do it'

Here's a pretty good summary from BASG:
---------------
Deal Length Oliver WAR PECOTA WAR ZiPS Average
7 $116 $118 $136 $123
6 $106 $108 $125 $113
5 $94 $96 $111 $100
4 $79 $74 $93 $82
3 $60 $59 $71 $64


Based on these forecasts, Sandoval would have expected a pretty healthy payday on the open market this winter. If the reports of the Giants only offering three years and $40 million are true, they are expecting a very large hometown discount from Sandoval. If it’s also true that Sandoval’s camp was asking for a deal in the five-year, $90 million range, that’s a very reasonable estimate and maybe even a little low as a starting point in a contract negotiation.

There are a number of caveats that need to be made, along with missing information that is not taken into account with this model. The issues include: his age, weight, injury issues, positional scarcity at third base, the lack of internal options to replace him and his work ethic.

The potential big one that isn’t included is what a qualifying offer might do to his value if he waits until next season to sign. We have already seen this new wrinkle really change the markets for middle-tier free agents over the past two winters and Sandoval could end up in that camp if he underperforms or gets injured this season.

With all of the above taken into account, if the Giants want to make a deal to keep Sandoval they will need to come a lot closer to the numbers that the model suggests. Giants management might not be comfortable spending that much, but if they want to keep their third baseman they’ll need to pay up.
-------------
If you think he's going to underperform, or get injured, then you make the QO and let him walk. Problem is, unless Susac is ready to catch full time (he might be), we don't have an internal solution at 3B.

If he'd go 3/64 that might work for all concerned.

 

[msgkings322]

Damned if you do, damned if you don't. Not saying Pablo isn't worth more, but he's shown a tendency to not be in shape. As you get older, its harder to get in shape, and if you don't have a background or history of doing so, its harder to learn later.


Not going to compare MVP Pablo to Rowland, but overpaying for the extra large Pablo would be just a big of mistake as overpaying for Rowland in the past.


Its not my money, so if the Giants want to bend over and shell it out fine, but I hope folks enjoy the increase in parking fees / concussion prices, panda hats.

Maybe the extra cost for the hats is worth it to avoid the concussions?

All the teams have to start spending more, it's the inevitable inflation recently kicked into high gear by our own division rival. The Giants aren't going to try to be the top spender, but they do have to step it up or basically decide to be the Padres.

 

[Mays-Fan]

Damned if you do, damned if you don't. Not saying Pablo isn't worth more, but he's shown a tendency to not be in shape. As you get older, its harder to get in shape, and if you don't have a background or history of doing so, its harder to learn later.


Not going to compare MVP Pablo to Rowland, but overpaying for the extra large Pablo would be just a big of mistake as overpaying for Rowland in the past.


Its not my money, so if the Giants want to bend over and shell it out fine, but I hope folks enjoy the increase in parking fees / concussion prices, panda hats.

I understand the trapped feeling, but two points here:

1) We don't know what the revenue situation is. We have been increasing payroll at a pretty good clip, and we haven't balked at any but the top of the top-shelf players. I suspect there is a lot more TV money than we realize, and so a bigger contract for Sandoval may not necessarily cause a huge jack in attendance costs for the fans. And it may not even pose a problem to management - they're just trying to sign players as cheaply as possible.

2) If we lose Sandoval, the bright side is that it may solve the problem of what to do with Posey and Belt longer term, and it will free up a nice chunk of payroll to address some serious issues (LF, another SP, etc).

 

[NBKLee]

Maybe the extra cost for the hats is worth it to avoid the concussions?

All the teams have to start spending more, it's the inevitable inflation recently kicked into high gear by our own division rival. The Giants aren't going to try to be the top spender, but they do have to step it up or basically decide to be the Padres.

, the autocorrect strikes again, concession prices

I'm not so sure about this one, wasn't there a strike/lockout recently in another major sport? NBA. Haven't these owners learned anything from throwing a gazillion dollars out there?

Giants are going to be competitive, but if they keep spending money loosely, they will end up being like the Phillies with a huge payroll only to finish 3rd or worse.

Spending money doesn't make a team successful, spending money wisely does.

Zito, Rowland, Durham, Pagan's 1st year of after reup, should all be warning signs that overpaying doesn't always get your results.

 

[NBKLee]

I understand the trapped feeling, but two points here:

1) We don't know what the revenue situation is. We have been increasing payroll at a pretty good clip, and we haven't balked at any but the top of the top-shelf players. I suspect there is a lot more TV money than we realize, and so a bigger contract for Sandoval may not necessarily cause a huge jack in attendance costs for the fans. And it may not even pose a problem to management - they're just trying to sign players as cheaply as possible.

2) If we lose Sandoval, the bright side is that it may solve the problem of what to do with Posey and Belt longer term, and it will free up a nice chunk of payroll to address some serious issues (LF, another SP, etc).

When IMAX walked through the door at 300+ lbs, it should have sent red flags up the pole, the FO and Sabean should have immediately started looking for backup options.

I believe we overpaid for Pence, but atleast you know he show up in shape, and work his ass off.

The "freed up payroll" will come in handy only if they don't pocket that money. If the Giants are banking on Crawfords development, and Morse returning to MLB form, then Pablo is expendable. There are other holes aswell though, Scutaro is showing his age, he's 40 going on 60 years now? If he plays 120+ games this year, I'll be surprised.

 

[tzill]

When IMAX walked through the door at 300+ lbs, it should have sent red flags up the pole, the FO and Sabean should have immediately started looking for backup options.

I believe we overpaid for Pence, but atleast you know he show up in shape, and work his ass off.

The "freed up payroll" will come in handy only if they don't pocket that money. If the Giants are banking on Crawfords development, and Morse returning to MLB form, then Pablo is expendable. There are other holes aswell though, Scutaro is showing his age, he's 40 going on 60 years now? If he plays 120+ games this year, I'll be surprised.

Based on what?

 

[Band of Brothers]

With Sandoval's agent basically telling the Giants if they can't get a deal done by the All Star break he will test the free agent market tells me that if a deal is not done Sandoval will be traded sometime around the trade deadline unless the Giants are rolling and going to take the West. If Sandoval goes on the market someone will make him a offer the Giants won't match. I think Sabean might have a plan to trade him and it might be sooner than later to get more value instead of letting Sandoval walk at the end of the year with only a extra draft pick to show for him leaving. I hope this whole thing will not be a major distraction to the team and Sandoval all year but I am afraid it will. I guess time will tell on how it shakes out.

 

[msgkings322]

With Sandoval's agent basically telling the Giants if they can't get a deal done by the All Star break he will test the free agent market tells me that if a deal is not done Sandoval will be traded sometime around the trade deadline unless the Giants are rolling and going to take the West. If Sandoval goes on the market someone will make him a offer the Giants won't match. I think Sabean might have a plan to trade him and it might be sooner than later to get more value instead of letting Sandoval walk at the end of the year with only a extra draft pick to show for him leaving. I hope this whole thing will not be a major distraction to the team and Sandoval all year but I am afraid it will. I guess time will tell on how it shakes out.

Is this ever NOT true?