PAC 12 Thread v6.0

[AlaskaGuy]

Best bets — other than Bama or Clemson — to win national championship next

9. Oregon
The Ducks are the only Pac-12 team on this list. That speaks to the uncertainty around USC heading into a pivotal season under Clay Helton. Washington could have just easily gone here too, but Oregon is trending up with Mario Cristobal's top-10 recruiting class this cycle. Plus, he'll have a good Playoff look with Justin Herbert at quarterback in 2019. The season-opener against Auburn is huge.

 

[UtahUte]

Pac-12 Football National Championship Odds: Favorite, Dark Horse & More - Stadium

 

[AlaskaGuy]

Top Class of 2020 Pac-12 prospects: Sav’ell Smalls and Justin Flowe top five national talents

 

[AlaskaGuy]

Analysis: Who’s rising and who’s falling in the Pac-12 recruiting ranks?
Jon Wilner Pac-12 Hotline

Rising: The North.

The division dominated the regular season and continued its momentum through the early signing window and into February.

The Pac-12 placed four teams in Rivals’ final Top 25, and three were from the North:

No. 7 Oregon, No. 19 Washington and No. 23 Stanford.

USC (17th) was the only South team in the top 30, in fact.

Team-specific assessments are below, but it’s difficult to survey the coaching, returning personnel and incoming talent and conclude that balance will return to the conference in the next few years.

Too many schools in the South are too many years away from high-level play.

Rising: Oregon.

One number connected to Oregon’s stellar recruiting class intrigues the Hotline more than any other, and it’s not 7 (the Ducks’ national ranking in the 247sports composite).

Rather, it’s 300.

Like Washington’s Chris Petersen, Oregon coach Mario Cristobal knows well the value of power on the line of scrimmage, and this class — his first beginning-to-end as head coach — is heavy on heavies.

Four linemen (two offensive, two defensive) are on the plus side of 300.

That group doesn’t include the No. 1 signee in the west, edge rusher Kayvon Thibodeaux, or a 270-pound strong-side end, Brandon Dorlus.

Look at it this way: Cristobal has almost as many 300-pounders arriving as he does running backs and receivers.

Rising: Washington.

On paper or pixels, the Huskies corralled the best class of the Petersen era, which is telling on multiple fronts:

It indicates an uptick in the caliber of players UW is targeting regularly — OKGs with elite talent — and underscores what Petersen did with classes that didn’t rank at the top of the conference.

From here, it appears the Huskies signed the best collection of defensive talent in the conference, with a starting 11 of four-star prospects. (Oregon would surely have a case to make in that argument.)

And the Huskies are strong where they have been strong and the rest of the conference has been weak: The defensive line.

Three incoming players (two tackles and an end) are ranked in the top 10 nationally at their position.

Rising: Stanford.

Not much sizzle to the class but a nice bounce-back for David Shaw. His program got caught short (with numbers) last season but was more aggressive in this cycle.

The comps, per 247sports:

2018 class: 15 players, five of which carry four-star ratings, and seventh in the conference.

2019 class: 23 players, eight of which carry four-star ratings, and fourth in the conference.

Nope, there isn’t a substantial difference in the number of four-stars, but I’m not sure that matters.

Because Stanford recruits to an established system, it frequently turns three-star prospects into high-level players (Harrison Phillips, Austin Hooper, JJ Arcega-Whiteside to name three).

The key for the Cardinal is having the numbers to make that happen. This year, it does.

Rising: Colorado coach Mel Tucker.

Tough spot for Tucker: Hired in early December, after a nosedive of a second half by the Buffaloes, he took over a program that’s light on in-state talent and multiple hours (by air) from the nearest recruiting hub.

And yet …

The Buffs emerged with a class that, in quantity and quality, meets the threshold they needed to avoid a longer-term backslide in depth.

Partial credit for this should go to former coach Mike MacIntyre and his staff, but Tucker finished impressively:

One-third of the class, which was ranked seventh in the conference by Rivals, committed after the New Year.

For context on the challenges faced by Colorado (whether the coach is named Tucker or MacIntyre or Barnett or Neuheisel) consider these in-state numbers:

The 2019 class feature zero five-star players and only one four-star prospect (Luke McCaffrey).

The 2018 class had zero fives and two fours.

Yes, the Buffs must improve their hit rate with elite homegrown talent, but there is precious little of it.

Rising: Utah coach Kyle Whittingham.

The Utes are an afterthought, an eighth banana in the Pac-12 recruiting roundup, and that’s probably just fine with Whittingham.

His class is low key, low in numbers and heavy on the players that fit needs.

(On a per-player basis, the class rates sixth in the conference.)

No program in the Pac-12 regularly produces a better convergence of playing style, coaching philosophy and talent pool.

Rising: Cal.

We’re not about to proclaim the class to be a breakthrough for third-year coach Justin Wilcox, except in one regard.

The Bears signed six players from Arizona and, in multiple instances, beat out the Wildcats and Sun Devils for prospects, including four-star defensive tackle Brett Johnson.

The state of Arizona possesses a rapidly improving talent pool and could serve as a complementary pipeline for Wilcox for years to come.

Rising: Arizona State.

We’re hesitant to slot the Sun Devils in this category (for reasons outlined a few paragraphs below). But as with so many ASU football matters, the Hotline prefers the bottom line, which doubles as the big picture:

With all the scrutiny on Herm Edwards and the so-called New Leadership Model, it was imperative that the Sun Devils present a level of general competence during the offseason, the regular season and Edwards’ first full recruiting cycle.

Edwards has cleared that bar repeatedly, and his ’19 class is the latest example.

That said, the numbers don’t indicate a marked improvement from the Todd Graham era.

ASU’s ranking within the Pac-12, per 247sports:

2013: 5
2014: 5
2015: 4
2016: 4
2017: 6
2018: 6
2019: 5

The issue moving forward isn’t the prospect ratings, of course. It’s the interconnection of evaluation and development.

Not all fifth-ranked recruiting classes are created equal. If a higher percentage of signees than past years were accurately evaluated, and make steady progress within the system, then the Sun Devils will better maximize the talent.

For clarity on that front, we need a few years.

Rising: Washington State.

There are 65 teams in the Power Five, including Notre Dame.

The Cougars’ recruiting class is ranked below all but four (Kansas, Texas Tech, Oregon State and Louisville).

We don’t care.

We believe.

Falling: Pac-12.

One top-10 class nationally … four top-30 classes nationally … it’s difficult to call the 2018-19 recruiting cycle an unqualified success for the conference.

At the root of the problem: Poor home-turf protection.

Five of the top 10 players in California are leaving the Pac-12.

The top five players in Arizona are all leaving the Pac-12.

So is the No. 2 prospect in Hawaii.

Falling: UCLA.

While it’s easy to paint the home-turf troubles with a brush that’s 12 programs wide, the root cause is trouble in Los Angeles.

The Bruins and Trojans simply didn’t execute to their traditional standards.

That’s partly by design with Chip Kelly, whose approach to talent acquisition is heavier on fit and lighter on star ratings as any coach, anywhere.

That said, buzz matters. It doesn’t matter as much as winning, but it matters. And it matters even more in the absence of winning.

Right now, the Bruins have neither wins nor buzz.

What they have more of than anything, out of necessity, is faith.

Faith that Kelly’s tactics are sound …

Faith that his evaluation skills are sharp as ever …

Faith that the warp-speed nature of the recruiting cycle isn’t too fast for Kelly’s preferred approach.

If the Bruins have neither buzz nor wins at this time next year, there won’t be much faith left, either.

Falling: USC.

Meanwhile, there was nothing premeditated about the Trojans’ inability to secure top-tier talent: Clay Helton and his staff simply didn’t execute — just like, you know, September through November

The situation might not feel as dire for the Trojans if the coaching staff had an established record of developing talent, of turning three- and four-star prospects into four- and five-star performers.

But the reality is quite different: Prospects arrive on campus and either stagnate or regress over time.

Combine poor development with less-than-elite talent and, over time, things could get even worse.

Falling: Future Pac-12 QBs.

Not a good cycle for quarterback recruiting. Not. Good. At. All.

The conference signed just two of the top-10 QB prospects in the country and three of the top 20.

And two of them are headed to the same place: Tempe.

(The Sun Devils are bringing in three quarterbacks, which means two will be in the transfer portal by the winter of 2021.)

This isn’t cross-conference cause for alarm, at least not to the degree it would have been four or five years ago.

Player movement, especially quarterback movement, has increased dramatically: One never knows when a Player of the Year candidate might materialize from the graduate transfer market.

But here’s the issue: Five quarterbacks ranked among the top 20 are from the Pac-12 footprint … and headed elsewhere.

Now that is cause for concern.

Falling: Arizona.

Kevin Sumlin was hired so late that Arizona’s 2018 class wasn’t really his.

But the ’19 group? That’s all Sumlin. And it’s a tad underwhelming, to be blunt.

Ranked on the bottom tier within the conference, it’s striking on several levels, not the least of which is the paucity of players from California.

The class breakdown, via 247sports:

Texas: 8
California: 5
Arizona: 2
Florida/Kansas/Utah: 1 each

The Wildcats must recruit Texas, of course. But tepid success retaining in-state players and low flow from the California pipeline … goodness, that’s a difficult combination to endure over multiple cycles.

Falling: Oregon State.

The Hotline won’t attempt to place a positive spin on the second class of the Jonathan Smith era … or a neutral spin … or even a negative spin.

In fact, we’re not going to place anything on it. We’re not even going to discuss it, because prospects that may or may not impact results in three years aren’t important to the Beavers.

What matters to the Beavers is 2019, and generating positive momentum for Smith’s program.

In that regard, it’s all about the transfers: Three newcomers from Nebraska (quarterback Tristan Gebbia, receiver Tyjon Lindsey and linebacker Avery Roberts) plus one from Oklahoma (edge rusher Addison Gumbs) could have a greater short-term impact on OSU than any combination of four veteran players.

They were all four-star recruits but aren’t included in the recruiting ratings.

Falling: Offensive linemen.

The Hotline made note of this trend in December, but it’s well worth a double-down.

Number of top-50 offensive linemen signed by the Pac-12 in the past eight years:

2012: 12
2013: 11
2014: 9
2015: 9
2016: 7
2017: 8
2018: 7
2019: 6

If the conference can’t control the line of scrimmage against top teams from other Power Fives, the big-stage losses will continue.

 

[Across The Field]

Best bets — other than Bama or Clemson — to win national championship next

9. Oregon
The Ducks are the only Pac-12 team on this list. That speaks to the uncertainty around USC heading into a pivotal season under Clay Helton. Washington could have just easily gone here too, but Oregon is trending up with Mario Cristobal's top-10 recruiting class this cycle. Plus, he'll have a good Playoff look with Justin Herbert at quarterback in 2019. The season-opener against Auburn is huge.

This is an interesting article. Not sure I'd put Texas that high, and Oregon should be behind both Washington and probably Stanford, but otherwise pretty solid.

 

[AlaskaGuy]

This is an interesting article. Not sure I'd put Texas that high, and Oregon should be behind both Washington and probably Stanford, but otherwise pretty solid.

Texas is the media love child atm after what they did to UGA. Washington lost a boatload of starters on defense and Oregon has a bunch of starters coming back including their QB so the media is going to be pushing them this offseason. I hate to admit it but I'll be pulling for the Ducks vs Auburn. The PAC is in dire need of some quality OOC wins and sad to say Washington hasn't helped much in that regard. Petersen has yet to win vs a quality OOC opponent while at Washington.

 

[Across The Field]

Texas is the media love child atm after what they did to UGA. Washington lost a boatload of starters on defense and Oregon has a bunch of starters coming back including their QB so the media is going to be pushing them this offseason. I hate to admit it but I'll be pulling for the Ducks vs Auburn. The PAC is in dire need of some quality OOC wins and sad to say Washington hasn't helped much in that regard. Petersen has yet to win vs a quality OOC opponent while at Washington.

I know how nauseous you must be typing that out, but you're probably right. I think Oregon can get the W over Auburn, given how inconsistent they are - especially on offense - but I hope you're at least gonna be rooting for the scarlet and gray when we go to Autzen next year.

Washington has seemed to reload reasonably well in the past 5 years, and the past 3 classes have been solid, so I expect them to be fine this year. Eason will be an upgrade at QB IMO, and Ahmed could round into a solid RB. I think the conference will be wide open this year. Gun to my head, I'd pick the Huskies to win the conference again.

 

[AlaskaGuy]

I know how nauseous you must be typing that out, but you're probably right. I think Oregon can get the W over Auburn, given how inconsistent they are - especially on offense - but I hope you're at least gonna be rooting for the scarlet and gray when we go to Autzen next year.

Washington has seemed to reload reasonably well in the past 5 years, and the past 3 classes have been solid, so I expect them to be fine this year. Eason will be an upgrade at QB IMO, and Ahmed could round into a solid RB. I think the conference will be wide open this year. Gun to my head, I'd pick the Huskies to win the conference again.

I'd LMFAO if Washington won the North this year and it's possible seeing how like you pointed out Petersen has them to the point that they just reload every season. That and UW's schedule is set up pretty good this year with the way they placed the bye weeks.

 

[AlaskaGuy]

I know how nauseous you must be typing that out, but you're probably right. I think Oregon can get the W over Auburn, given how inconsistent they are - especially on offense - but I hope you're at least gonna be rooting for the scarlet and gray when we go to Autzen next year.

Washington has seemed to reload reasonably well in the past 5 years, and the past 3 classes have been solid, so I expect them to be fine this year. Eason will be an upgrade at QB IMO, and Ahmed could round into a solid RB. I think the conference will be wide open this year. Gun to my head, I'd pick the Huskies to win the conference again.

btw keep an eye on Utah. Those fvcks have a shitload of starters returning.

 

[WizardHawk]

I know how nauseous you must be typing that out, but you're probably right. I think Oregon can get the W over Auburn, given how inconsistent they are - especially on offense - but I hope you're at least gonna be rooting for the scarlet and gray when we go to Autzen next year.

Washington has seemed to reload reasonably well in the past 5 years, and the past 3 classes have been solid, so I expect them to be fine this year. Eason will be an upgrade at QB IMO, and Ahmed could round into a solid RB. I think the conference will be wide open this year. Gun to my head, I'd pick the Huskies to win the conference again.

It doesn't nauseate him at all. Oregon is like his #2 team. He was pretty tight with the duck fans on that crap stain they came from.

The hard part about picking the ducks still remains: Their schedule and particularly road games (Herbert is like 4-8 for a career on the road), their defense needs to make much better strides, and UW has entirely reloaded on defense and done fine before after King, Baker, Jones, and the rest all left for the NFL a few short years ago. This crop stepped right in without skipping a beat. Lake seems to really know how to keep that back end humming along.

UW has a much easier schedule and the staff to put it together. However the loss of Gaskin is really still the biggest question mark outside of all of the new faces on defense. They have some talented young WR's that are expected to break out this year after red shirting last season and should improve quite a bit in the passing game.

I know everyone wants to make it a forgone conclusion that Oregon will take the conference, but I'll believe it when I see it and not before.

 

[AlaskaGuy]

It doesn't nauseate him at all. Oregon is like his #2 team. He was pretty tight with the duck fans on that crap stain they came from.

 

[AlaskaGuy]

Washington will most likely land these two.

Ranking the Top 25 Players in the 2020 CFB Recruiting Class

1. 
   2. Sav'ell Smalls, LB
   
   Linebacker Sav'ell Smalls has one of the most impressive highlight tapes you'll see. Athletic and explosive enough to play receiver, linebacker and block field goals, Smalls projects as a top-tier pass-rusher with significant room to add weight to his frame. The 6'3", 230-pounder has a terrific vertical jump, which is an indicator of elite upside for pass-rushers.
   

1. 
   12. Kelee Ringo, CB
   
   Possessing an intimidating 6'2", 205-pound frame and solid downfield speed, cornerback Kelee Ringo is one of the most exciting prospects in the nation. He uses his plus strength and length to jam receivers and has enough fluidity and speed to carry them upfield. His ability to play man and zone makes him a top corner prospect across the nation.
   

 

[PSUTE]

btw keep an eye on Utah. Those fvcks have a shitload of starters returning.

Yeah, we do. Like to see our starting QB make it through his final season without another season ending injury. We reload on defense, so the low ranking on defensive returning production is not a huge concern...

 

[AlaskaGuy]

 

[wazzu31]

I know how nauseous you must be typing that out, but you're probably right. I think Oregon can get the W over Auburn, given how inconsistent they are - especially on offense - but I hope you're at least gonna be rooting for the scarlet and gray when we go to Autzen next year.

Washington has seemed to reload reasonably well in the past 5 years, and the past 3 classes have been solid, so I expect them to be fine this year. Eason will be an upgrade at QB IMO, and Ahmed could round into a solid RB. I think the conference will be wide open this year. Gun to my head, I'd pick the Huskies to win the conference again.

Thing with Oregon is, they make the most inconsistent offenses look like well oiled machines. Michigan State actually looked semi competent which they hadn’t all year.

 

[TheLonestarDUCK]

MSU season offensive yard avg 342, had 331 vs Oregon.
MSU avg 20 1st downs, had 19 vs Oregon. Looks pretty close to par to me.

 

[WizardHawk]

Suck it ducks and utes.

 

[AlaskaGuy]

 

[AlaskaGuy]

2019 Football Team Rankings

 

[PSUTE]

2019 Football Team Rankings

Hell of a get. Congrats...