Overperforming, Underperforming, and the Value of Goal Differential

[LeaderOCola]

so far this season....

 

[DChero]

It seems like the one goal games are the make-or-break point. I remember Tampa being pretty modest in this stat a couple of years ago. When they lost, they were blown out pretty often. When they won, it was usually close.

 

[element1286]

Yep, pretty established that those are highly correlated.

 

[puckhead]

tells me Winnipeg is due to lose a few games in the next little stretch.

 

[DChero]

tells me Winnipeg is due to lose a few games in the next little stretch.

Yep. In the playoffs.

I hate that team..

 

[pixburgher66]

Yep. In the playoffs.

I hate that team..

I don't really hate the team, but I hate the fact that they'll probably be in the playoffs because of the rough stretches in Washington and Raleigh.

 

[DChero]

I don't really hate the team, but I hate the fact that they'll probably be in the playoffs because of the rough stretches in Washington and Raleigh.

I can't see any NHL hockey because the team was moved. Eff Winnipeg and the Atlanta Spirit Group. Thank God I travel for work. If not, I'd have to drive 4 hours to Nashville or fly to Pittsburgh to see games. When I lived in Pittsburgh, I was in the South Hills. 25 minutes from the arena!

 

[LeaderOCola]

It's not just that the correlation is strong.

It's that the correlation hits (a non enforced) .5 interecept this season.

It's that there are only 2 teams with a .1 (or larger) outlier

It's that the slope this season is >.2
(that is if you 'buy' a player or two that will get you 1GPM), you will literally win .2 more games (almost 10 points, abridged season).


Fascinating.
Obviously there are intricacies, etc. But AGAIN, only two teams really stand OFF the trendline. Maybe I should replot it with confidence intervals based on the GDPG having standard deviations or something.


In summary, I'm just shocked it lines up THIS well, THIS season.

 

[esls79]

Can I infer the teams above the line are lucky and the ones below it aren't?

Also, you said buy a player or two, does the converse addition by subtraction apply as well?

 

[LeaderOCola]

Can I infer the teams above the line are lucky and the ones below it aren't?

Also, you said buy a player or two, does the converse addition by subtraction apply as well?

Well, luck may not be the right term, I mean

1) Strenght of Schedule is not included for example
2) a 8 goal win or loss will inflate the x-axis a lot
3) etc
4) teams above the line are, doing better than they should, and vice versa)

But in general to your point #2, yes, assuming you mean you want to play for the #1 draft pick.

+/-1 GPG margin on average, this year, translates to winning 10 more, or 10 less games in the short season. In a full year, about 16 games.

 

[esls79]

I actually meant getting rid of a defensive liability when I said addition by subtraction and not necessarily tanking.

 

[LeaderOCola]

I actually meant getting rid of a defensive liability when I said addition by subtraction and not necessarily tanking.

OK, well, I didn't read it that way, but yes if you thought overall it would improve your GPGD, then yes, you should, ceteris paribus

 

[Bizzle McDizzle]

score more and/or stop the other team from doing same means win more






math

 

[LeaderOCola]

score more and/or stop the other team from doing same means win more






math

again, derrrrr....


the topic is HOW solidified that is, THIS season.

and how 2 teams are really out of the correlation.
(1) of them is a current division leader.

 

[Bizzle McDizzle]

those two teams don't do math


derr

 

[LeaderOCola]

those two teams don't do math


derr

well, good to know I can greasemonkey your user title to HS flunkout,

 

[Bizzle McDizzle]

well, good to know I can greasemonkey your user title to HS flunkout,

That's the spirit.

 

[DevilishWon]

ugh the stench of math right here on the SportsHoopla boards.....

 

[Bizzle McDizzle]

ugh the stench of math right here on the SportsHoopla boards.....

Someone post a picture of tits, STAT!