One week till the draft....make your predictions

[Sharkonabicycle]

I think there is a good chance that the Eagles, who have two second round picks, trade up from 22 and into the teens with someone, especially if one of the offensive or defensive linemen they like falls. Like, if they can get a Jared Verse, Dallas Turner or JC Latham, I could see them trading into the 14-18 range.

I want Seattle to trade down their 16th with the Eagles to snatch their 22nd and one of their 2nds (and maybe we kick in one of our 4ths). I think that's roughly equal. I think Turner will be gone by 16 let alone 14, but Latham, Verse, Latu, or Murphy should be there (one of anyway). Good chance some OTs fall too because it could be 4-5 QBs and 3-4 WRs, and Bowers in the top 15.

For Seattle, the OL class is super deep and someone should be there at 22 (and we need IOL, not OT) and if not we can grab a DL or EDGE (or Nubin since he fits MacDonald's scheme) and pick up OL with the 2nd and 3rd.

 

[Schmoopy1000]

Before Donald retired I expected the Rams to trade current and future picks for short-term quality starters. Now...things are less clear.

just kind of a joke since the Rams are notorious for not having a 1st

 

[fastforward]

just kind of a joke since the Rams are notorious for not having a 1st

Still got 4 days to 'get rid of it'.

 

[belcherboy]

Still got 4 days to 'get rid of it'.

If they are trading back, I don't see that pick being traded till they are on the clock.

 

[Sharkonabicycle]

If they are trading back, I don't see that pick being traded till they are on the clock.

Correct.

 

[shopson67]

LOL, yeah a next year conditional 6th for a 1st round pick, who was traded up to acquire to begin with. No doubt, the Bears made out like bandits.

Having Fields still showing promise a year ago allowed the Bears to make the trade with Carolina last year, gift-wrapping Caleb to them this year. Bandits.

 

[shopson67]

In Round 1:

• 4 QBs go in the first (3 in the top 10)
• More CBs taken than WRs (6 to 5)
• Latu goes in the top 10

I wouldn't be surprised to see 6 QBs in the first. If you believe in Nix or Penix enough to draft them, getting that 5th year option is like a 50% off coupon. Only makes sense to at least trade up to the end of the 1st to select them. Or, to ensure that you don't get sniped, simply take them earlier. All depends on priorities I guess.

 

[shopson67]

Two WR's traded during the draft.

Aiyuk to the Bills....?

 

[shopson67]

The risk taker is him going to the Bears, they haven't developed a qb since Sid Luckman.

I'm thinking the people involved have changed a few times since then, including recently.

 

[shopson67]

I think the Falcons should consider taking Latu at #8, I think he might be the best pass rusher in the draft, but the injury concerns with him I think will cause him to fall some.

If the Falcons go Edge at 8, it should be either Turner or Latu. Morris dropped his edges into coverage a LOT last year, and Turner did that the most of the top edge rushers in this year's class. Latu also does that well, so he could also be that choice, but I think Turner is the fit.

 

[belcherboy]

I wouldn't be surprised to see 6 QBs in the first. If you believe in Nix or Penix enough to draft them, getting that 5th year option is like a 50% off coupon. Only makes sense to at least trade up to the end of the 1st to select them. Or, to ensure that you don't get sniped, simply take them earlier. All depends on priorities I guess.

I agree with you. Although if I were betting on it, I'd bet on 5 QB's going in the first round, I think that 6 QB's could very well see their names called on the first night.

 

[Black Adam]

I agree with you. Although if I were betting on it, I'd bet on 5 QB's going in the first round, I think that 6 QB's could very well see their names called on the first night.

As I've heard it put, it's a QB driven league, so finding a productive QB is essential to any team's success. So really taking a top notch QB(or at least as close as you can) is a no brainer as far as kick starting a roster...

 

[shopson67]

As I've heard it put, it's a QB driven league, so finding a productive QB is essential to any team's success. So really taking a top notch QB(or at least as close as you can) is a no brainer as far as kick starting a roster...

...and there are more than enough teams that really need one to push that number to six. I don't think Rattler gets pushed into the first, but he could go sooner than you think too.

 

[belcherboy]

...and there are more than enough teams that really need one to push that number to six. I don't think Rattler gets pushed into the first, but he could go sooner than you think too.

The fact that many of the best QB's came later in the draft and many from lesser programs helps create a culture of buying lottery tickets with your draft picks.

Current QB's who were drafted towards the end of the first round or later and/or from a smaller college program:

Dak Prescott - 4th round Miss St
Kirk Cousins - 4th round Michigan St
Brock Purdy - last pick in the draft Iowa St
Jordan Love - 26th pick Utah St
Jalen Hurts - Late 2nd round
Russell Wilson - 3rd round
Aaron Rodgers - 24th pick Cal
Lamar Jackson - 32nd pick Louisville
Josh Allen - Wyoming
Patrick Mahomes - Texas Tech


Lot's of potential drafting a QB from the late 1st round and after. Also, smaller programs put out some great talent compared to the big school QB's that come out. It can be worth a gamble, especially if that QB comes in quickly and succeeds (you've got 4-5 years of a cheap contract).

 

[cwalke3408]

I wouldn't be surprised to see 6 QBs in the first. If you believe in Nix or Penix enough to draft them, getting that 5th year option is like a 50% off coupon. Only makes sense to at least trade up to the end of the 1st to select them. Or, to ensure that you don't get sniped, simply take them earlier. All depends on priorities I guess.

Wouldn't surprise me either but to have a QB and using the 5th year option, you have to keep them for that long first.
With now Zach Wilson traded that put 4/5 1st round QBs in 2021 traded before the 5th year.
Also this confirms Broncos are out on taking QB

 

[cwalke3408]

The fact that many of the best QB's came later in the draft and many from lesser programs helps create a culture of buying lottery tickets with your draft picks.

Current QB's who were drafted towards the end of the first round or later and/or from a smaller college program:

Dak Prescott - 4th round Miss St
Kirk Cousins - 4th round Michigan St
Brock Purdy - last pick in the draft Iowa St
Jordan Love - 26th pick Utah St
Jalen Hurts - Late 2nd round
Russell Wilson - 3rd round
Aaron Rodgers - 24th pick Cal
Lamar Jackson - 32nd pick Louisville
Josh Allen - Wyoming
Patrick Mahomes - Texas Tech


Lot's of potential drafting a QB from the late 1st round and after. Also, smaller programs put out some great talent compared to the big school QB's that come out. It can be worth a gamble, especially if that QB comes in quickly and succeeds (you've got 4-5 years of a cheap contract).

For every Dak Prescott or Russell Wilson, there is 12 Matt Corral, Ian Book, Will Grier, Ryan Finley, etc
The chances on getting a start worthy QB after the first is pretty low

 

[belcherboy]

Wouldn't surprise me either but to have a QB and using the 5th year option, you have to keep them for that long first.
With now Zach Wilson traded that put 4/5 1st round QBs in 2021 traded before the 5th year.
Also this confirms Broncos are out on taking QB

I could see Denver trading back from the #12 and if Nix or Penix is available late in the first or early in the 2nd round, I could see them snagging one. I think it is highly unlikely, but Wilson cost them nothing so if they like the potential Nix or Penix brings, Wilson could buy them a year or two of development, if the Broncos see a nice ceiling with them...and they can get them late in the first or second round.

 

[belcherboy]

For every Dak Prescott or Russell Wilson, there is 12 Matt Corral, Ian Book, Will Grier, Ryan Finley, etc
The chances on getting a start worthy QB after the first is pretty low

That's why I called it a lottery ticket. There does seem to be one guy picked late in the first round or later that hits a home run every few drafts.

 

[Clayton]

That's why I called it a lottery ticket. There does seem to be one guy picked late in the first round or later that hits a home run every few drafts.

Yeah, but it requires every other team to mess up the evaluation. Often these outliers help newer QBs get drafted higher. Kyler Murray doesnt go #1 without Russell Wilson. Anthony Richardson doesnt go top 5 without Jalen Hurts. Drake Maye doesn't go top 5 without Jordan Love.

Maybe Spencer Rattler changes how we view QBs. Maybe its Bo Nix. I think the Chiefs GM says he thinks there are 5 rd1 QBs. Maybe 10 years ago he'd only see 2 rd1 QBs.

 

[belcherboy]

Yeah, but it requires every other team to mess up the evaluation. Often these outliers help newer QBs get drafted higher. Kyler Murray doesnt go #1 without Russell Wilson. Anthony Richardson doesnt go top 5 without Jalen Hurts. Drake Maye doesn't go top 5 without Jordan Love.

Maybe Spencer Rattler changes how we view QBs. Maybe its Bo Nix. I think the Chiefs GM says he thinks there are 5 rd1 QBs. Maybe 10 years ago he'd only see 2 rd1 QBs.

My point is that many teams do mess up their evaluations...every year. So a lottery ticket can look more enticing if you don't have the #1 or #2 picks. GM and coaches don't lose their jobs when they whiff on a guy who is drafted later, like they do when they whiff on a top 10 QB pick.

#2 Trubisky (2017)
#1 Russell (2007)
#3 Joey Harrington (2002)
#1 Vince Young (2006)
#6 Daniel Jones (2019)
#3 Blake Bortles (2014)
#2 Zach Wilson (2021)
#2 Carson Wentz (2016)
#8 Jake Locker (2011)
#10 Blaine Gabbert (2011)
#2 RG3 (2012)
#3 Sam Darnold (2018)
#10 Josh Rosen (2018)

I think teams are more willing to risk an unpolished QB later in the draft because of the guys I listed above. They are unpolished, and have clear flaws, but they are much cheaper to toss away if they don't pan out, and GM's are not judged as harshly if they don't pan out. They are straight gold if they hit because of their tiny contract for the first 4-5 years.