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Oklahoma is favored by 9 1/2.....Did I hear that right.

Discussion in 'College Football Forum' started by outofyourmind, Oct 9, 2019.

  1. outofyourmind

    outofyourmind Oklahoma Sooners

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    That sounds really high for this game.
     



  2. tnapucco

    tnapucco Fair as fuck

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    [​IMG]
     
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  3. Red_Alert

    Red_Alert Paint It Red, Baby!!!

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    Opened OU (-10.5).

    Went to (-11) soon after.
     
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  4. Red_Alert

    Red_Alert Paint It Red, Baby!!!

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    Agree it seems high for a rivalry.
     
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  5. Used 2 B Hu

    Used 2 B Hu Bailor Bares!

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    I like that O/U 76 though
     
  6. MAIZEandBLUE09

    MAIZEandBLUE09 Well-Known, and Feared, Member

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    #1 offense vs. #104 defense spells bad times for texas
     
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  7. TechRaiderRider

    TechRaiderRider Wreck Em!!

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    lookin at the transitive property
    which we all know is absolute
    in cfb -
    horns barely got past the pokes
    who were manhandled by the red raiders
    who were demolished by the sooners -

    9-1/2 seems a bit low, tho -

    wreck em!!
     
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  8. CaptainStubing

    CaptainStubing Well-Known Member

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    i think it actually opened at 10.5
     
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  9. tnapucco

    tnapucco Fair as fuck

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    Here is the line, you are correct as far as Vegas Insider can tell:
    Capture.JPG

    Full history here:
    Sports Betting News and Vegas Odds
     

    Attached Files:

  10. Goldbug

    Goldbug Well-Known Member

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    OU will probably score around 70% of the time they have the ball and Texas will score about 60% of the time so that's actually a pretty good spread. It's hard to bet. Neither defense is truly worth a damn so if one side or the other gets even a little lucky on D the score could get out of hand. That's the big question mark about this game.
     
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  11. Hornsstampede2.0

    Hornsstampede2.0 Burnt Orange and Shiner

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    Texas is (6-1) in the last 7 meetings versus OU versus the spread
    The largest margin of victory in the last 7 meetings was one oddball Texas slight blowout of the Sooners in 2013.

    All the other games were within a FG at some point in the 4th quarter and were nailbiters.
    This is a coinflip rivalry game.

    This game is a betting nightmare for any sort of intuitive lean based on data outside of the game itself.
    Texas is the only Big 12 team who even competes with Oklahoma anymore.

    The point spread in the rivalry game is usually skewed...and forgets how close the rivalry has become.
     
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  12. JuiceTheGator

    JuiceTheGator Purveyor of Justice

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    But that Tejas bad defense is what seems to have given LSUx a 13.5 point favorite over UF? :scratch: If I were allowed to gamble, I'd probably make a buck on this foolishness.

    But yeah, if LSUx scored easily on Tejas, Okie probably can as well.
     
  13. Hook'Em0608

    Hook'Em0608 Moderator Staff Member Moderator

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    Using adjusted stats so opponents don't matter as much. This game is a mismatch for Texas. Granted it's a rivalry so anything goes...

    Texas offense

    Texas #14 in points per play
    Texas #31 in yards per play

    Oklahoma offense

    Oklahoma #1 in points per play
    Oklahoma #1 in yards per play

    Texas defense

    Texas #35 in points per play
    Texas #79 in yards per play

    Oklahoma defense

    Oklahoma #26 in points per play
    Oklahoma #43 in yards per play

    We really don't have an advantage on either side of the ball this year. Only thing we can hope for is turnovers and our offense is clicking. I do believe we will be the more physical team because of the way we practice, but that has it's faults also if your team is too beat up to have any depth on Saturdays. In the 4th quarter we better have a lead because our depth sucks right now at key positions to grind out a win.
     
  14. olympicoscar

    olympicoscar Life is what you've made of it. Supporting Member Level 3

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    This should be real high scoring. I would take the over. Texas has a chance, but only with a couple of turnovers.
     
  15. Hook'Em0608

    Hook'Em0608 Moderator Staff Member Moderator

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    As to why I'm not feeling great...Last year there was a clear advantage for us

    2018

    Texas Offense

    Texas #34 in points per play
    Texas #55 in yards per play

    Oklahoma Offense

    Oklahoma #1 in points per play
    Oklahoma #1 in yards per play

    Texas Defense

    Texas #17 in points per play
    Texas #22 in yards per play

    Oklahoma Defense

    Oklahoma #64 in points per play
    Oklahoma #66 in yards per play

    Where is our advantage this year???
     
  16. Hornsstampede2.0

    Hornsstampede2.0 Burnt Orange and Shiner

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    Isn't OU's kicker in jail or something, and our kicker is likely going to be a Groza finalist.

    If it comes down to a tight nerve kick

    #somethinganything
     
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  17. Wishbone

    Wishbone Robust Member

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    Dicker the Kicker shouldn't even be playing in this game. He should be suspended for targeting.
     
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  18. BoomerNTX

    BoomerNTX ~Boomer FN Sooner~

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    OU's 2nd kicker is better than our 1st. Sutherland is 50% at FG's. Brkic is 100% on FG's. Both are 100% on PATs. Neither gets many attempts at FG's, because OU's offensive juggernaut. A total of 5 FG attempts in 5 games.
     
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  19. Codaxx

    Codaxx Well-Known Member

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    Texas needs to take advantage of that OL, especially the tackles. Have to attack it smartly. Take away the easy reads for Hurts and make him read the defense. Make intelligent 4-5 man blitzes, something that Orlando can struggle with. Molten is good for at least 1 PI and a hold a game. OU's OL isnt nearly as athletic and they hold constantly from my viewing. Not a bad strategy, considering that offense. IF you think I am full of shit on this, take a look at the penalties this year. OU is ranked 129th in the country. 1 more thing, please play Bradley-Hines
     
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  20. Hornsstampede2.0

    Hornsstampede2.0 Burnt Orange and Shiner

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    Turnover Margin
    Texas is 11th in the nation
    Oklahoma is 43rd in nation

    Penalties
    Texas is 69th in penalties
    Oklahoma 107th in penalties

    Texas doesnt really beat itself that badly and helps itself to other teams mistakes quite often.
    OU has shown a little bit of stupid self inflicted stuff and isnt great with taking advantage of others mistakes.

    Against their schedule of god awful horrible teams they played so far, Oklahoma can get away with it.
    But, if OU starts committing dumb penalties and loses the turnover battle versus UT or anyone else with a pulse.
     
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