Odds of getting a perfect bracket for March Madness

[JDM]

25 games? That's how many you have to exclude that way to make that math work, and that isn't remotely mathematically sound at that point.

 

[CatsTopPac]

Where are you getting the 25 games from? Is that the difference between the different odds? Because it seems to me that it would be far more games than that. If that is the correct math, then you are right, it should be better odds than 1 in 125b. Either way, I'm not trying to figure it out.

 

[pumpkinhead33793]

The big # gives #16 seed a chance to win the entire thing. #16 has never won in the NCAA Tournament, so anyone that knows anything about March Madness, that is it.

That means, #16 seed doesn't get the 2 choices for the 2nd game, 3rd game, 4th game, and 5th game,
and the #1 seed just gets the 1 choice for the 1st game

Actually, the big number assumes that every game has a 50 percent chance at either outcome which we all know is illogical. So not knowing anything about college basketball would actually yield a LESS chance of a perfect bracket than even the bigger number. That is because if you knew nothing about basketball, you probably would pick a few 16 seeds which would be like a 1 in a 1000 chance in that game alone let alone every other game.

 

[JDM]

2^38=~174billion

That means they would have to throw away 25 games for that simplistic model to work. This means he almost certainly did not do that.

However, if you assume that instead of each game being evenly matched, a knowledgable fan can guess 2/3 of games correctly instead of 1/2(random), you get an estimate of 1 in 124 billion. The actual success percentage to result in 1 in 180 billion odds would be 66.27425...%. This is more likely closer to how he approached it, although he may have handicapped separately by round or some other factors.

 

[JDM]

Actually, the big number assumes that every game has a 50 percent chance at either outcome which we all know is illogical. So not knowing anything about college basketball would actually yield a LESS chance of a perfect bracket than even the bigger number. That is because if you knew nothing about basketball, you probably would pick a few 16 seeds which would be like a 1 in a 1000 chance in that game alone let alone every other game.

Wrong. Not knowing means your odds are 50/50 each game.

 

[CatsTopPac]

I see what you are saying now. Based on those calculations, his figure is off. It would be much better that 125b odds with just the 15 and 16 seeds alone. All of the combinations of those seeds winning in each round, that are excluded in his calculations, are much more than 25 games.

So yes, a better explanation would be warranted.

 

[dcZONAfan]

can I vote this as worst thread of all time?

I hate you guys for making this continue to be bold when I refresh my screen

 

[pumpkinhead33793]

Wrong. Not knowing means your odds are 50/50 each game.

Well, I "don't know" who will win each 1 vs 16 game. Does that mean that the odds are 50/50 on those games? Don't be a fool.

 

[JDM]

Well, I "don't know" who will win each 1 vs 16 game. Does that mean that the odds are 50/50 on those games? Don't be a fool.

Your odds of guessing correctly with no knowledge are 50-50. The odds of the game itself are irrelevant as it is cancelled out by the fact that you are equally likely to pick either team

 

[pumpkinhead33793]

Your odds of guessing correctly with no knowledge are 50-50. The odds of the game itself are irrelevant as it is cancelled out by the fact that you are equally likely to pick either team

I see what you are saying. You are going off the chances before a person with no knowledge makes the picks. I am going based on the odds AFTER he makes the picks but before the games are played.

 

[charlie42s]

If anybody were to actually predict a perfect bracket, Warren Buffett will be offering the person a job shortly after he finds out who it is.

 

[gordontrue]

The official odds are something like 1 in 9.2 quintillion (an unfathomable, meaningless number), but this assumes you're picking at random with no useful knowledge.

I read somewhere that once you account for things like 16 seeds never winning, 15 seeds rarely winning, and having some basic knowledge about the game.... the odds come out closer to 1 in 100 billion. That is MUCH better odds than 1 in 9.2 quintillion... but still very, very far from having a realistic chance of ever happening.

 

[gordontrue]

Ok, so I see now that CTP already said what I basically said... carry on

 

[redseat]

hire micheal J fox and still his time machine and come back...

 

[JDM]

I see what you are saying. You are going off the chances before a person with no knowledge makes the picks. I am going based on the odds AFTER he makes the picks but before the games are played.

It doesn't matter. You're making assumptions that they will pick unlikely teams, which with no knowledge is no more likely than picking a likely team. It cancels out.

There are individual brackets that are unlikely, but the odds of selecting the right bracket doesn't change.

 

[pumpkinhead33793]

It doesn't matter. You're making assumptions that they will pick unlikely teams, which with no knowledge is no more likely than picking a likely team. It cancels out.

There are individual brackets that are unlikely, but the odds of selecting the right bracket doesn't change.

Dude, everyone that makes there picks at that point does not have the same chance at winning. Only BEFORE they pick do they. That is the only thing people care about.