NL Central thread

[kburjr]

Hiura is the guy they have options with, so that was the obvious choice. It wouldn't surprise me at all if Shaw or Moose is traded and Hiura is up for good...but we'll see.

The Brew Crew needs to get some separation between now and the end of July if they want to win this division. It was loaded in the front and back and the middle is kind of soft, so they'll need to get a nice lead going into the end of July and early August...and if they don't they'll have a tough time getting a wild card spot. Basically, they need to make hay while the sun shines...

Shaw still had an option left. He should have been sent down to regain his stroke

 

[navamind]

It would be great for them if Nelson regains his 2017 form but I'm not sure how much you can expect from him given how long he's been out.

 

[navamind]

I think that decision might have had to do with Hiura's defense. Shaw's had an awful start this season but he was a damn good player in 2017-18.

 

[mr.hockey4242]

I guess we will have to agree to disagree on this one because I don't have time to look up a million stats.

Run differential is much more important. What’s also important is seeing how many 1 run games a team has played.

Take the Twins and Yankees for example. They have only played 13 and 14 1 run games respectively.

Twins are 8-5 in 1 run games which is a solid win pace. What’s more remarkable is they have 45 games not decided by 1 run already and they are 32-13 in those.

Winning consistently by a lot shows much more sustainability.

 

[Myles]

I think the run differential is very telling.

Top 15 in RD. Only 3 teams are sub .500 (.458, .491, .492)




Bottom 15 has only 2 teams over .500 (.542, .517).

 

[tomcat1]

I think the run differential is very telling.

Top 15 in RD. Only 3 teams are sub .500 (.458, .491, .492)

View attachment 206957


Bottom 15 has only 2 teams over .500 (.542, .517).

View attachment 206959

All I know without looking up more stats is that many teams that score 10 or more runs on a given day seem to score 1 or 2 runs the next day and I think this has already happened to our Cardinals a couple of times this season.

 

[tomcat1]

Several of us here have been having a respectful discussion about run differential and I have stated that I think it is a meaningless stat.

Going into tonight's action the 1st place Brewers had a big time plus in run differential but let's check out what happened to their run differential after tonight's action since the Marlins decided to have a fish fry of their own. I rest my case.

 

[packerzrule]

Losing 16 - 0 at home to the Fish??

Baseball is a funny game.

 

[Myles]

All I know without looking up more stats is that many teams that score 10 or more runs on a given day seem to score 1 or 2 runs the next day and I think this has already happened to our Cardinals a couple of times this season.

I agree that it doesn't guarantee anything and exceptions will happen allot. However, the stats pan out. 4 of the top 5 in run differential are leading their divisions. The Cardinals are nearly right in the middle 14/30. They are also only 1 game over .500. In the Cardinals case, they fall perfectly where their run differential says they should.
There will always be outliers. Like Arizona, who is 7th in run differential but are 2 games under .500.

 

[navamind]

Since the 2nd WC was introduced, here's how the top 10 teams in run differential fared in regards to making the playoffs:

2018 Major League Baseball Standings & Expanded Standings | Baseball-Reference.com

9 of the top 10 teams in pythag W-L made the playoffs (Nats being the exception)

2017 Major League Baseball Standings & Expanded Standings | Baseball-Reference.com

9 of the top 10 again (Cardinals being the exception)

2016 Major League Baseball Standings & Expanded Standings | Baseball-Reference.com

8 of 10 (Cards and Mariners didn't make it; Rangers won 95 games despite having a pythag of 82-80, but they've finished below .500 the next two seasons)

2015 Major League Baseball Standings & Expanded Standings | Baseball-Reference.com

8 of 10 (Giants and Nats missed and underachieved their pythags)

2014 Major League Baseball Standings & Expanded Standings | Baseball-Reference.com

8 of 10 (Jays and Mariners missed and underachieved their pythags)

2013 Major League Baseball Standings & Expanded Standings | Baseball-Reference.com

9 of 10 (Rangers missed out by blowing the AL West and losing in the Wild Card play-in game)

2012 Major League Baseball Standings & Expanded Standings | Baseball-Reference.com

9 of 10 (Angels missed)

And while you'll get a team every now and then like the 2010/12/14 Giants or the 2006/11 Cards winning the WS, the majority of WS winners are usually at/near the top in run differential.

 

[tomcat1]

NL teams on the plus side in run differential:

Dodgers +105
Cubs +56
Reds +39
Diamondbacks +37
Phillies +18
Cardinals +16
Braves +15
Rockies +11
Brewers +2

In my opinion the Brewers, who are listed last on the above list, are one of the best teams in the NL. Do you think even half the teams listed in the above list are as good as the Brewers? I don't think so. One bad game like the Brewers had last night can destroy the stat called run differential and this is why I think it's a meaningless stat. To put it another way, the Reds are listed 3rd on the above list and they are in last place.

 

[tomcat1]

Losing 16 - 0 at home to the Fish??

Baseball is a funny game.

It is indeed but I sure wouldn't bet against the Brewers tonight.

 

[mr.hockey4242]

NL teams on the plus side in run differential:

Dodgers +105
Cubs +56
Reds +39
Diamondbacks +37
Phillies +18
Cardinals +16
Braves +15
Rockies +11
Brewers +2

In my opinion the Brewers, who are listed last on the above list, are one of the best teams in the NL. Do you think even half the teams listed in the above list are as good as the Brewers? I don't think so. One bad game like the Brewers had last night can destroy the stat called run differential and this is why I think it's a meaningless stat. To put it another way, the Reds are listed 3rd on the above list and they are in last place.

Sure there’s outliers.

Dodgers are also head and shoulders the best team in the NL and run differential supports it.

Cubs are one of the best rosters, run differential supports it.

 

[tomcat1]

Sure there’s outliers.

Dodgers are also head and shoulders the best team in the NL and run differential supports it.

Cubs are one of the best rosters, run differential supports it.

Reds are in last place and their +39 run differential does not support it.

 

[tomcat1]

Sure there’s outliers.

Dodgers are also head and shoulders the best team in the NL and run differential supports it.

Cubs are one of the best rosters, run differential supports it.

The Brewers lost to the Marlins at home tonight as a -250 favorite making it two loses in a row at home against the Marlins but their run differential vs. the Marlins does not support it.

With as many stats as there are in baseball we can toss numbers around all we want to and make them look like what we want them to when the only thing that matters is how did a given team come out at the end of the season.

 

[Myles]

The Brewers lost to the Marlins at home tonight as a -250 favorite making it two loses in a row at home against the Marlins but their run differential vs. the Marlins does not support it.

With as many stats as there are in baseball we can toss numbers around all we want to and make them look like what we want them to when the only thing that matters is how did a given team come out at the end of the season.

So far 5 of the top 6 in run differential are winning their division. None of the division winners are in the bottom half.
It's a pretty good gauge. If my wife, who knows nothing of baseball, could guess who the best teams were based only on run differential, she could guess fairly accurately. In fact if she went only by that stat, she would pick 5 of the 6 division leaders and Tampa Bay who is 13 games over .500 and only 1.5 games out of first.

You are correct in saying the only thing that matters is the final standings.

 

[navamind]

run differential isn't going to matter as much when you're a third into the season. you're going to see a lot more variance and sample size weirdness.

Reds are in last place and their +39 run differential does not support it.

they also started the season 5-12. they're last place, but they're only 4 games below .500 and 5.5 games out of the division. they're coming off a May in which they went 15-13 and outscored opponents by 32 runs. their offense had a brutal start (.212/.286/.380 and 109 runs in 29 games), but bounced back in May (.259/.326/.444 and 149 runs in 28 games).

 

[tomcat1]

So far 5 of the top 6 in run differential are winning their division. None of the division winners are in the bottom half.
It's a pretty good gauge. If my wife, who knows nothing of baseball, could guess who the best teams were based only on run differential, she could guess fairly accurately. In fact if she went only by that stat, she would pick 5 of the 6 division leaders and Tampa Bay who is 13 games over .500 and only 1.5 games out of first.

You are correct in saying the only thing that matters is the final standings.

View attachment 207118

A good win for our Redbirds this afternoon and just think, we added 2 more runs to our run differential. What does that win us, LOL?

Tough weekend series coming up at Wrigley starting tomorrow afternoon . . . GO REDBIRDS!

 

[Clayton]

I'm a big believer in run differential at the end of the year for gauging power rankings.

Cards are 2-0 in games I've gone to this year. Good to see a clean game today with good coaching.

 

[mr.hockey4242]

The Brewers lost to the Marlins at home tonight as a -250 favorite making it two loses in a row at home against the Marlins but their run differential vs. the Marlins does not support it.

With as many stats as there are in baseball we can toss numbers around all we want to and make them look like what we want them to when the only thing that matters is how did a given team come out at the end of the season.

And as @navamind showed you. By seasons end, the playoff teams are almost all supported by strong run differentials.

You can argue all you want, it’ll never make you right.