NHL #2 Goaltender

[DragonfromTO]

The B's goalies have led the league in Save % 4 of the last 5 seasons I believe. They allow a lot of shots from the wall cause they collapse down. This is Julien's system that helps do this

So are you arguing that the Kings' system allows an extremely disproportionate number of high quality chances? I find that rather hard to believe, but if you can show/prove it I'm all ears.

 

[Swamp Dragon]

So are you arguing that the Kings' system allows an extremely disproportionate number of high quality chances? I find that rather hard to believe, but if you can show/prove it I'm all ears.

Where in my post did I say anything about the Kings

 

[DragonfromTO]

The B's goalies have led the league in Save % 4 of the last 5 seasons I believe. They allow a lot of shots from the wall cause they collapse down. This is Julien's system that helps do this

So I'm a little annoyed... I knew I had read something short and sweet about this but couldn't find it when searching, but then luckily I found a link to it in another article. Unfortunately when I clicked it the article I wanted appears to have disappeared. The conclusions are cited in the second article though, so I'll post that at least. I'll keep looking.

Randy Carlyle Coaching Myths Part Five: Shot Distance - Pension Plan Puppets

"Just yesterday Travis Yost (a Sens blogger) posted an article on the site that shall not be named (but will be linked for the sake of this article) trying to look at shot quality and how it might be tied into shot distance. He postulated that teams with higher shot distance averages would have higher team save percentages. Turns out, there is virtually no correlation between average shot distance and save percentage. In that post you can see that the Leafs had the farthest average shot distance in the league, while also being dead last in 5v5 SA/60.

This was the link to the hockeybuzz piece that isn't there

HockeyBuzz.com - Terms of Use

 

[elocomotive]

 

[Swamp Dragon]

Where in my post did I say anything about the Kings

Sorry DragonfromTO but I tried to edit that answer and went over the time limit I was just stating that the B's system of play benefits the keeper

 

[Swamp Dragon]

So I'm a little annoyed... I knew I had read something short and sweet about this but couldn't find it when searching, but then luckily I found a link to it in another article. Unfortunately when I clicked it the article I wanted appears to have disappeared. The conclusions are cited in the second article though, so I'll post that at least. I'll keep looking.

Randy Carlyle Coaching Myths Part Five: Shot Distance - Pension Plan Puppets

"Just yesterday Travis Yost (a Sens blogger) posted an article on the site that shall not be named (but will be linked for the sake of this article) trying to look at shot quality and how it might be tied into shot distance. He postulated that teams with higher shot distance averages would have higher team save percentages. Turns out, there is virtually no correlation between average shot distance and save percentage. In that post you can see that the Leafs had the farthest average shot distance in the league, while also being dead last in 5v5 SA/60.

This was the link to the hockeybuzz piece that isn't there

HockeyBuzz.com - Terms of Use

Ask any goalkeeper if they'd rather face three shots from the boards or one from the slot

 

[DragonfromTO]

Where in my post did I say anything about the Kings

I assumed you were offering that argument as an explanation for Quick's unimpressive save percentages.

 

[DragonfromTO]

Ask any goalkeeper if they'd rather face three shots from the boards or one from the slot

You basically said that a team/goalie's overall save percentage will rise along with their average (allowed) shot distance (and cited the Bruins as an example). If that's not actually true, then what difference does the answer to that question make with regard to the actual statistical argument here?

It's only one team, but if you read the article talking about Carlyle and the Leafs you'll see that in that specific case their system of collapsing and trying to allow shots from the outside doesn't lead to them allowing fewer shots from the inside as a result... the higher number of outside shots are "extra" shots, not "instead of" shots.

 

[Swamp Dragon]

I assumed you were offering that argument as an explanation for Quick's unimpressive save percentages.

No I'm not that impressed with Quick he was in the zone in 2012

 

[Swamp Dragon]

You basically said that a team/goalie's overall save percentage will rise along with their average (allowed) shot distance (and cited the Bruins as an example). If that's not actually true, then what difference does the answer to that question make with regard to the actual statistical argument here?

It's only one team, but if you read the article talking about Carlyle and the Leafs you'll see that in that specific case their system of collapsing and trying to allow shots from the outside doesn't lead to them allowing fewer shots from the inside as a result... the higher number of outside shots are "extra" shots, not "instead of" shots.

the net is 4X6 at the side boards at say the face off circle the net looks 4x4 just angles

 

[DragonfromTO]

Ask any goalkeeper if they'd rather face three shots from the boards or one from the slot

I would also keep in mind that over the years (and as we get our hands on more and more data) plenty of arguments (both hockey and otherwise) that have made excellent intuitive sense have turned out not to be true.

For the record, I don't think that shot quality has absolutely zero effect on SV%. But from the data we have it doesn't appear to be a very large effect, and it definitely doesn't seem to me to be a large enough effect to raise a goalie who's been 26th in SV% over the last two years up to #2 in the world.

 

[DragonfromTO]

Ask any goalkeeper if they'd rather face three shots from the boards or one from the slot

Something else that you're not accounting for is that unless the goalie smothers those three shots from the boards perfectly, any one of them can create a new shot from 5-10 feet away. In addition, any one of them can hit a leg or a stick on the way to the net.

 

[Swamp Dragon]

You basically said that a team/goalie's overall save percentage will rise along with their average (allowed) shot distance (and cited the Bruins as an example). If that's not actually true, then what difference does the answer to that question make with regard to the actual statistical argument here?

It's only one team, but if you read the article talking about Carlyle and the Leafs you'll see that in that specific case their system of collapsing and trying to allow shots from the outside doesn't lead to them allowing fewer shots from the inside as a result... the higher number of outside shots are "extra" shots, not "instead of" shots.

There is far more to the B's system than collapsing down they force the play to the outside as opposed to collapsing into the the net in the Carlyle or Torts systems

 

[Swamp Dragon]

Something else that you're not accounting for is that unless the goalie smothers those three shots from the boards perfectly, any one of them can create a new shot from 5-10 feet away. In addition, any one of them can hit a leg or a stick on the way to the net.

Therein lies the problem it is the goalies job to STOP the puck it is the defensemens to clear it from danger the B's D get it the Leafs D does not

 

[DragonfromTO]

There is far more to the B's system than collapsing down they force the play to the outside as opposed to collapsing into the the net in the Carlyle or Torts systems

OK. Still doesn't change the fact that average shot distance doesn't seem to correlate with SV% at the team level in the NHL.

 

[DragonfromTO]

Therein lies the problem it is the goalies job to STOP the puck it is the defensemens to clear it from danger the B's D get it the Leafs D does not

The Leafs average shot distance at even strength was almost identical to the Bruins though (39.1 feet vs 39.3 feet). If what you're describing is what's happening, shouldn't the Bruins' average shot distance be greater than the Leafs' since they're allowing the far shots while clearing the rebounds? The difference was simply that Rask/Johnson stopped a higher percentage of overall shots than Bernier/Reimer did.

 

[DragonfromTO]

The Leafs average shot distance at even strength was almost identical to the Bruins though (39.1 feet vs 39.3 feet). If what you're describing is what's happening, shouldn't the Bruins' average shot distance be greater than the Leafs' since they're allowing the far shots while clearing the rebounds? The difference was simply that Rask/Johnson stopped a higher percentage of overall shots than Bernier/Reimer did.

If you're wondering where I got those average distances

Super Shot Search

Enjoy

Top 5 average shot distance teams (even strength, road games) and their ranking in SV% (even strength, road games)

1. Minnesota (40.4 feet) 8th
2. Bruins (39.3) 1st
3. Leafs (39.1) 20th
4. Flyers (39.0) 10th
5. Detroit (37.9) 23rd

As you can see, the Bruins don't appear to be 1st in SV% merely because of where they allow shots from but because their goalies were just really good. I'll probably mess around with some more of the data tomorrow.

 

[Bloody Brian Burke]

Aren't you the same fans that ranted how great Reimer was 2 seasons ago

Absolutely. If the Leafs had put a defence in front of him capable of limiting shots to under 30 a damn game, maybe the morons in charge wouldn't have figured he was the problem and acquired Bernier.

But they did, and Bernier was pretty awesome, so...

 

[Bloody Brian Burke]

Mason I agree. Bishop I'd take over Bernier

Not arguing anybody's preference, but given the criteria he should at least be listed.

I feel like i'm being such a Leaf homer but it's really just taking all the information at hand and concluding that, while all have had a small window of success, Bernier's numbers are up there with the rest while playing on the worst team of the three.

 

[Puck082]

I'd say Quick is better than HL. Especially Quick with his name on the cup twice. So I guess he's #2 if the assumption is HL is #1.