NFL Ranked Defenses

[flamingrey]

They should simply take out any TD's given up by way of returns (Int/punt/fumble/kickoff). In addition, maybe take the average yards gained in a single drive (example ave. offensive drive is 20 yards before having to punt or something). From that they can derrive whether a defense should have been expected to give up any points after their offense turns the ball over. So, if a team turns the ball over on the opponents 48 yard line...the average drive being 20 yards (for this argument) that wouuld put the defense back at the 38 yard line, and potentially giving up a FG, but they would have still have held the opposing offense to the average amount (or less) of yards expected. So, in this case, the FG wouldn't count against their PPG average just like the returns wouldn't.

Hopefully that makes some sense....hard to type it out the way I am thinking it up.

Some good ideas in there (same as Crash's post).

You'd also somehow have to account for average starting position for a normal drive (one that doesn't initiate from a TO). On average, is the defense starting from the 20 yard line, the 30 yard line, etc. So it gives a measure of how many yards were possible to even give up before a FG or TD. Take 2 teams that both defend 10 drives and give up 10 TD, while both may seem "equal", if one team starts from the 30 yard line and the other 20 yard line on average, the team that starts on the 20 is actually worse than the 30.

For drives that ARE initiated from TO, they would similarly have to have a 2nd set of average starting positions. Depending on where the team starts on the field has a bearing how well that defense is going to do. As the field behind the defense gets shorter, it becomes easier to defend. So if one defense starts at the opponents 20 yard line versus a 2nd defense at the 40 yard line (both essentially in FG range), it's easier for the 1st defense to go 3 downs and a FG than it is for the 2nd defense to go 3 downs and a FG. Total yards, number of first downs, completions, etc. given up are all impacted.

To go on a tangent, this is why I'm not a big fan (I actually hate it) of the current QB rating that is widely used. Way too simplistic, arbitrary (looking at the "multipliers" in the formula), and doesn't account for the plethora of variables that go into determining a QB's play.

 

[DanBengalfan]

more stats, we are:

3rd against the pass
7th against the rush
tied for 1st in yards per carry at 3.1
tied for 6th in total points

if you only go with passing and rushing TD's, and take out fumble recoveries, Kick and Punt return and interceptions, we are
tied for 5th in total points, straight rushing and passing....

got all that from NFL.com stats

Thanks for looking that up for us. here's a rep.

 

[bengaldoug]

Buffalo was a good test for the defense, but they are by no means the most explosive offense we could have to deal with, 38ppg notwithstanding.....their receivers really didn't test our secondary deep, and even when playing well we have a tendency to give up the occasional deep throw, courtesy of our fine safeties.....

 

[CrashDavisSports]

What is another great thing for our defense with this ranking....

How many f'n 3rd downs do we F up and not convert? Huber has to be in the top 5 or so in punts. We are constantly punting, so for the defense to have to defend that much more is a testiment to their talent as they are still ranked #1 and have to be on the field, frequently.

 

[flamingrey]

Only a homer could continue to speak of the defense as ranked #1.

Stop being such a homer all the time.

 

[CrashDavisSports]

Only a homer could continue to speak of the defense as ranked #1.

Stop being such a homer all the time.

It is the only time I get to brag and have a stat to back it up. LOL

Gimme a F break!! I need one as a Bengals fan.

 

[NCGhosthunter]

What is another great thing for our defense with this ranking....

How many f'n 3rd downs do we F up and not convert? Huber has to be in the top 5 or so in punts. We are constantly punting, so for the defense to have to defend that much more is a testiment to their talent as they are still ranked #1 and have to be on the field, frequently.

ask and you shall receive, lol! j/k, thanks for the rep guys! I do like looking up stats, don't mind it one bit.. okay, on Kevin Huber... he is having overall a very good year so far... after 4 games he is:

3rd in punts with 25
21st in avg at 43.8
19th in net avg at 38.4

but that doesn't tell the whole story on why I think he is having a VERY good year. I dug deeper. He has been brilliant in other areas he obviously is concentrating on. Kevin is:

2nd in punts inside the 20 yard line with 9
2nd in punts fair catched with 7
3rd in avg return at 3.08 yards
4th with 6 punts downed by the other team, let roll to a stop

out of 25 punts, only 9 have even been returned, so almost 2/3 of his punts are not returned.. they are fair catched, let roll to a stop, or touchbacked (3)

from NFL.com stats

 

[anythingispossible]

more stats, we are:

3rd against the pass
7th against the rush
tied for 1st in yards per carry at 3.1
tied for 6th in total points

if you only go with passing and rushing TD's, and take out fumble recoveries, Kick and Punt return and interceptions, we are
tied for 5th in total points, straight rushing and passing....

got all that from NFL.com stats

Just think if your defense had to play the entire game like ours.

 

[flamingrey]

This is the way I read those stats:

Why are so many of punts not returned? Because he's below average at 21st with an average of 43.8 yards per punt. In effect, because the ball isn't relatively travelling very far, the defenders are getting to the ball by the time it reaches the returner. Hence, fair catch or he gets out of the way because defenders crowd him.

2nd in punts inside the 20 yard line because 1) he punts more than every punter except for 2, so he's got a higher probability, and 2) because the Bengals punt more than anyone else that close to the opponents side of the field. This is very likely since he's 21st in average. So it's not like he's booting them better than others. And this is also probably true based on our known Marvin infatuation with playing the field position game. So, really in the scheme of things, this stat is misleading (though Crash will love it ) at least at this juncture.

The 3 points below that can also be explained by the above - his below average yards per punt.

All that said, it's only been 4 games, so even a couple bad punts or a bad game will have a very large effect on the averages, so a true assessment cannot be made yet.

What does 3rd in punts mean for the defense? They're probably even better than advertised. It still doesn't say exactly how many series/game the Bengals defense is on the field nor prove they're on for more series than other teams, but based on the sheer number of punts, it's likely the defense is in fact on the field more than other teams.

 

[flamingrey]

Just think if your defense had to play the entire game like ours.

Well then you guys must be either 1st or 2nd in punts, otherwise our defense is likely seeing more series.

Go Vikings!

 

[NCGhosthunter]

This is the way I read those stats:

Why are so many of punts not returned? Because he's below average at 21st with an average of 43.8 yards per punt. In effect, because the ball isn't relatively travelling very far, the defenders are getting to the ball by the time it reaches the returner. Hence, fair catch or he gets out of the way because defenders crowd him.

2nd in punts inside the 20 yard line because 1) he punts more than every punter except for 2, so he's got a higher probability, and 2) because the Bengals punt more than anyone else that close to the opponents side of the field. This is very likely since he's 21st in average. So it's not like he's booting them better than others. And this is also probably true based on our known Marvin infatuation with playing the field position game. So, really in the scheme of things, this stat is misleading (though Crash will love it ) at least at this juncture.

The 3 points below that can also be explained by the above - his below average yards per punt.

All that said, it's only been 4 games, so even a couple bad punts or a bad game will have a very large effect on the averages, so a true assessment cannot be made yet.

What does 3rd in punts mean for the defense? They're probably even better than advertised. It still doesn't say exactly how many series/game the Bengals defense is on the field nor prove they're on for more series than other teams, but based on the sheer number of punts, it's likely the defense is in fact on the field more than other teams.

except you can not address why his punts that ARE returned, are only returned for 3.08 yards, which is at the very top of the NFL punters.....
I think you are stuck on yards, and not hang time my friend... his punts that ARE returned, are only returned for 3.08 yards....bam!

 

[flamingrey]

That 3.08 yards can be attributed to the same thing as fair catches and downed balls. He's just not getting as much distance on his kicks as most kickers, so even the ones returners try to return, the defenders are already caving in.

Hypothetically, if he were ranked in the top 10 in yards per punt and still had those other stats, then he's probably a top 5 kicker in the league. Because then it's a sign that not only is he getting the distance, but he's getting serious hang time as well that the returners still can't return the kicks.

Give me distance over hang time any day.

 

[Cincyfan78]

Dont' forget that punts inside the 20 drastically reduce the average (usually). If the team is punting from their own 40, to make it to the 19 and be considered inside the 20 (with no return) the punt only need to travel 40+ yards. A true average punt it hard to nail down because of all the changing variables.

Same with defense (and the QB rating, which I also do not like)...so many changing variables lead to many more outcomes other than those proposed for the stats. One thing I hate for QB's is that INT's that are not always the QB's fault, such as the one Caldwell dropped (should have caught) and ended up for a pick 6. No way is that on Dalton, but you can't give an INT to a WR. Maybe they should make up a stat for a defected pass that leads to turnovers for the WR. I remember TJ's last year here (I think it was) he had at least 3 balls bounce right off his hands and into a defenders for INT's. How is that remotely fair for the QB? Makes no sense.

Also, why do FG kickers get yards from the spot of the kick, but punters only get yards from the LOS? That also should be address (if I am not mistaken)

 

[DanBengalfan]

Kevin Huber is the god of punting, and you will not blaspheme his name.

 

[NCGhosthunter]

That 3.08 yards can be attributed to the same thing as fair catches and downed balls. He's just not getting as much distance on his kicks as most kickers, so even the ones returners try to return, the defenders are already caving in.

Hypothetically, if he were ranked in the top 10 in yards per punt and still had those other stats, then he's probably a top 5 kicker in the league. Because then it's a sign that not only is he getting the distance, but he's getting serious hang time as well that the returners still can't return the kicks.

Give me distance over hang time any day.

Give me distance over hang time any day? oh hell no!

I'll take hang time, 2/3 of his punts not even attempted to be returned, and a 3 yd avg return?? please say you aren't serious lol...

 

[NCGhosthunter]

Kevin Huber is the god of punting, and you will not blaspheme his name.

lol..

not saying that, but I am saying he might be one of the smartest punters in the NFL...

 

[vancelot23]

I'll take hangtime as a general rule. If he's averaging 40 yards but very little return I'm happy. If he's averaging 50 yards but giving up longer returns due to outkicking the coverage then thats not good.

 

[flamingrey]

Dont' forget that punts inside the 20 drastically reduce the average (usually). If the team is punting from their own 40, to make it to the 19 and be considered inside the 20 (with no return) the punt only need to travel 40+ yards. A true average punt it hard to nail down because of all the changing variables.

Same with defense (and the QB rating, which I also do not like)...so many changing variables lead to many more outcomes other than those proposed for the stats. One thing I hate for QB's is that INT's that are not always the QB's fault, such as the one Caldwell dropped (should have caught) and ended up for a pick 6. No way is that on Dalton, but you can't give an INT to a WR. Maybe they should make up a stat for a defected pass that leads to turnovers for the WR. I remember TJ's last year here (I think it was) he had at least 3 balls bounce right off his hands and into a defenders for INT's. How is that remotely fair for the QB? Makes no sense.

Also, why do FG kickers get yards from the spot of the kick, but punters only get yards from the LOS? That also should be address (if I am not mistaken)

That is what I forgot to account for in my analysis. I even mentioned that the Bengals love to punt from near midfield. Now I'm gonna have to rethink the stats (later on) and will likely come up with a varying conclusion.

As for kicks being measured from the LOS as opposed to the spot of the kick, it really should matter since every team generally kicks from the same distance away from the LOS. The exception is for punts that are kicked from the endzone.

However, this may be the exact reason why. EVERY team kicks FG from 7 yards behind the LOS. No matter from where they measure, it's consistent. However, teams could slightly vary from where they punt, and it just becomes complicated to keep track of. Additionally, the important thing to remember is, they're trying to determine where the opposing team gets the ball from where the ball originally was (on 4th down). So I'm at my own 30 yard line. The punter can kick from whereever, but I what I want to see is where I'm giving up the ball from where I had it. So it makes sense to measure from the LOS.

 

[flamingrey]

I'll take hangtime as a general rule. If he's averaging 40 yards but very little return I'm happy. If he's averaging 50 yards but giving up longer returns due to outkicking the coverage then thats not good.

Given that for the most part, all teams are within 10 yards of each other (with the exception of 5) in average punt return, it's a good indication that regardless of the hangtime, returners are only going to beat you for a few additional yards with a couple seconds less in the air.

I.e. I'd rather have a punter who could boot it that extra 10 yards knowing it'll only cost me say 4-5 yards return yardage on average.

Also, remember, if a ball is travelling further, to get that extra distance it'll be in the air longer than if it didn't go as long (this is obviously neglecting the height of the trajectory).

 

[NCGhosthunter]

I'll take hangtime as a general rule. If he's averaging 40 yards but very little return I'm happy. If he's averaging 50 yards but giving up longer returns due to outkicking the coverage then thats not good.

yep, that's the way I see it too. think we got a smart punter on our team..