NFL Draft, 2024

[DurbanPoison2121]

I fear Kyle Shanahan hubris. I fear he thinks he is the smartest guy in the building, or at least enjoys the challenge of proving it. We all saw how the offensive line failed against AFC teams last season (Chiefs, Ravens, Browns, Bengals) and it cost the 49ers the Super Bowl. But in Kyle's mind, he got to a play or two from winning the Super Bowl with a piecemeal line. Even the front office knows this is a mediocre line, that is why they are paying their starting center $4.5M a year over next three year, and extended their left tackle at $4M a year. Even those players and their agents know those are backup salaries. They know they would not start elsewhere. Having said that, the 49ers did not draft an offensive lineman last year, they did not upgrade the offensive lineman in free agency this year, and we can all see them moving off OT at 31 for a defensive lineman or receiver. I mean, why are they meeting with Marshawn Kneeland at Santa Clara? David Lombardi has them drafting DE Darius Robinson, and Matt Barrows has them drafting DT Johnny Newton. At best, either is part of a rotation.

I have come around on where I think the Niners may go in this draft. I believe that this draft will be, in order, Mitchell if he falls to 31 (possibly even a slight move up), JPJ or Frazier if they fall to 31, then DL if all are gone by then. Given the shit developmental status of OL play in college and lack of quality "plug and play" OT in this draft that will be available at 31, I think Shanny and Foerster see whoever they draft at OT as a developmental tackle and will wait until the 3rd/4th to address it since they know whomever they draft at 31 would likely not beat out McKivitz until next year at the earliest anyways. Guys like Guyton, Salamatia, Morgan, etc. are all guys who need LOTS of developmental work/pro gyms to rebuild their bodies and technique. I don't see the Niners drafting a guy like that in the 1st round while simultaneouly being so deep in their Super Bowl window. Drafting Mitchell helps them now and in the future. Drafting JPJ or Frazier upgrades C now and in the future. Drafting DL helps our run defense now and with so many FA pending after this year, definitely in the future. Drafting a tackle without trading up in the teens and mortgaging part of our future isn't going to help us now. So maybe a guy like Kiran Amegadje from Yale, who has top notch traits but lacks experience against top level competition and may be available in the 3rd round...that may be the long term play.

My pipe dream:

1st: WR Adonai Mitchell
2nd: CB Andru Phillips
3rd: OT Kiran Amegadje
4th: DT DeWayne Carter
4th: TE Theo Johnson
4th: C Tanor Bortolini/Beux Limmer
5th: WR Javon Baker
6th: DE Gabriel Murphy
6th: DT Kristian Boyd
7th: QB Carter Bradley/Devin Leary

 

[deep9er]

I fear Kyle Shanahan hubris. I fear he thinks he is the smartest guy in the building, or at least enjoys the challenge of proving it. We all saw how the offensive line failed against AFC teams last season (Chiefs, Ravens, Browns, Bengals) and it cost the 49ers the Super Bowl. But in Kyle's mind, he got to a play or two from winning the Super Bowl with a piecemeal line. Even the front office knows this is a mediocre line, that is why they are paying their starting center $4.5M a year over next three year, and extended their left tackle at $4M a year. Even those players and their agents know those are backup salaries. They know they would not start elsewhere. Having said that, the 49ers did not draft an offensive lineman last year, they did not upgrade the offensive lineman in free agency this year, and we can all see them moving off OT at 31 for a defensive lineman or receiver. I mean, why are they meeting with Marshawn Kneeland at Santa Clara? David Lombardi has them drafting DE Darius Robinson, and Matt Barrows has them drafting DT Johnny Newton. At best, either is part of a rotation.

Yes, Brendel was extended after a good 2022, so this will affect how they view Center in this draft. It MIGHT push Center to a later round even if JPJ or Frazier are sitting there.

There is no doubt we need to upgrade the O-line and we're all hoping our 'BPA' will be an OT. Fortunately, the deep OT class helps us out so we'll see? But all of the top OT prospects are expected to be long gone by 31, so the remaining OTs are '2nd tier' prospects. IF there are 6 or 7 of them all about the same, it makes sense to grab a top DT first. Odds are one of the 6 or 7 "2nd tier" OTs will be there in Round 2.

 

[Yosemite Sam]

I think there are 4-5 guys who would start at CENTER over Jake Brendel

I have come around on where I think the Niners may go in this draft. I believe that this draft will be, in order, Mitchell if he falls to 31 (possibly even a slight move up), JPJ or Frazier if they fall to 31, then DL if all are gone by then. Given the shit developmental status of OL play in college and lack of quality "plug and play" OT in this draft that will be available at 31, I think Shanny and Foerster see whoever they draft at OT as a developmental tackle and will wait until the 3rd/4th to address it since they know whomever they draft at 31 would likely not beat out McKivitz until next year at the earliest anyways. Guys like Guyton, Salamatia, Morgan, etc. are all guys who need LOTS of developmental work/pro gyms to rebuild their bodies and technique. I don't see the Niners drafting a guy like that in the 1st round while simultaneouly being so deep in their Super Bowl window. Drafting Mitchell helps them now and in the future. Drafting JPJ or Frazier upgrades C now and in the future. Drafting DL helps our run defense now and with so many FA pending after this year, definitely in the future. Drafting a tackle without trading up in the teens and mortgaging part of our future isn't going to help us now. So maybe a guy like Kiran Amegadje from Yale, who has top notch traits but lacks experience against top level competition and may be available in the 3rd round...that may be the long term play.

My pipe dream:

1st: WR Adonai Mitchell
2nd: CB Andru Phillips
3rd: OT Kiran Amegadje
4th: DT DeWayne Carter
4th: TE Theo Johnson
4th: C Tanor Bortolini/Beux Limmer
5th: WR Javon Baker
6th: DE Gabriel Murphy
6th: DT Kristian Boyd
7th: QB Carter Bradley/Devin Leary

The criticism I hear on AD Mitchell is that he hasn't shown the discipline/compliance managing his diabetes, suggesting an immaturity. Because he is not diligent managing his insulin levels and diet, he has been prone to "not feeling like giving or unable to give 100%" on occasion.

As for drafting an OT that needs a year, I think there are two objectives. If they simply want to upgrade McKivits at RT, then they can draft a tackle later in round 2 or 3. But if they are looking at this 2024 draft to find Trent Williams future replacement, then they can draft a more impressive athlete with all the measurables but in need of development (Mims, Guyton, Suamataia). That is why I think it is important to recognize what Kyle Shanahan thinks he is capable of with this current offensive line talent that went to the Super Bowl last season.

The scenario where you wait to draft a center (Bortolini/Limmer) and OT (Amegadie) means neither position is upgraded this year. By drafting Jackson Powers-Johnson and Rosengarten or Paul; you can upgrade two position on the line this year. Or, imagine Frazier for now and Amegadie for development. My problem with drafting multiple developmental types is you get closer and closer to the existing talents of Brendel and McKivits, which are not sufficient. We must also anticipate replacing one or both Banks and Feliciano next year.

The scenario I can see is:

R1.31 CB Wiggins
R2.63 OT Rosengarten
R3.94 OC Van Pran

 

[deep9er]

I think there are 4-5 guys who would start at CENTER over Jake Brendel

The criticism I hear on AD Mitchell is that he hasn't shown the discipline/compliance managing his diabetes, suggesting an immaturity. Because he is not diligent managing his insulin levels and diet, he has been prone to "not feeling like giving or unable to give 100%" on occasion.

As for drafting an OT that needs a year, I think there are two objectives. If they simply want to upgrade McKivits at RT, then they can draft a tackle later in round 2 or 3. But if they are looking at this 2024 draft to find Trent Williams future replacement, then they can draft a more impressive athlete with all the measurables but in need of development (Mims, Guyton, Suamataia). That is why I think it is important to recognize what Kyle Shanahan thinks he is capable of with this current offensive line talent that went to the Super Bowl last season.

The scenario where you wait to draft a center (Bortolini/Limmer) and OT (Amegadie) means neither position is upgraded this year. By drafting Jackson Powers-Johnson and Rosengarten or Paul; you can upgrade two position on the line this year. Or, imagine Frazier for now and Amegadie for development. My problem with drafting multiple developmental types is you get closer and closer to the existing talents of Brendel and McKivits, which are not sufficient. We must also anticipate replacing one or both Banks and Feliciano next year.

The scenario I can see is:

R1.31 CB Wiggins
R2.63 OT Rosengarten
R3.94 OC Van Pran

It could be this scenario and I'd like these R2 and R3 picks.

While i can't say for certain Wiggins would be 'BPA' or not, I'm inclined to think no? Knowing Lynch/Shanahan, they'll place more value on a DT or DT/DE type like Darius Robinson or Chop Robinson. Someone on the outside but could go inside on NASCAR plays.

 

[DurbanPoison2121]

I think there are 4-5 guys who would start at CENTER over Jake Brendel

The criticism I hear on AD Mitchell is that he hasn't shown the discipline/compliance managing his diabetes, suggesting an immaturity. Because he is not diligent managing his insulin levels and diet, he has been prone to "not feeling like giving or unable to give 100%" on occasion.

As for drafting an OT that needs a year, I think there are two objectives. If they simply want to upgrade McKivits at RT, then they can draft a tackle later in round 2 or 3. But if they are looking at this 2024 draft to find Trent Williams future replacement, then they can draft a more impressive athlete with all the measurables but in need of development (Mims, Guyton, Suamataia). That is why I think it is important to recognize what Kyle Shanahan thinks he is capable of with this current offensive line talent that went to the Super Bowl last season.

The scenario where you wait to draft a center (Bortolini/Limmer) and OT (Amegadie) means neither position is upgraded this year. By drafting Jackson Powers-Johnson and Rosengarten or Paul; you can upgrade two position on the line this year. Or, imagine Frazier for now and Amegadie for development. My problem with drafting multiple developmental types is you get closer and closer to the existing talents of Brendel and McKivits, which are not sufficient. We must also anticipate replacing one or both Banks and Feliciano next year.

The scenario I can see is:

R1.31 CB Wiggins
R2.63 OT Rosengarten
R3.94 OC Van Pran

I watch a TON of Texas football, one of my best friends swam at Texas...AD Mitchell showed up in the biggest games. I find it hard to believe that two weeks before the draft, not during season or combine, suddenly there is an issue with AD Mitchell's management of diabetes. Sounds like a ploy to get him to drop in the draft over anything else. My point was we have MAJOR issues coming up CB, WR, and OL. OL in college, is more developmentally lacking than the other positions, which is why I feel that Shanny would rather plug and play talented WR/CB immediately while giving the OL picks a redshirt year, especially when the draft is DEEP with OL and not as deep with WR.

In terms of OT and development, you are assuming a lot by thinking that a Rosengarten or Paul, both developmental OT in their own rights, would supplant McKivitz this year. Hell, Rosengarten IS McKivitz in that he is better in pass pro than run blocking, but gets eaten up by power pass rush moves. What he lacks that McKivitz has, is experience in the Shanny offense. Paul gets eaten up by speed rushers and is sloppy technically and despite having the second most college snaps of any OT in this draft, still seen as a project pick.

You are also assuming Van Pran to be able to supplant Brendel but not Bortolini or Limmer. Why is that? C is not a position that is valued which is why all three of these guys dropped but I can see a clear path towards starting for all three of these guys by the BYE week next year. I consider all dudes mentioned as eventual upgrades over Brendel.

When I look at the draft in its totality, I see this draft that is DEEP with developmental OL, with only maybe 5 OT, 3 C, and like 2 G ready to start day one. One G who got injured during the season but I think can start day one, Zinter from Michigan, I'm hoping the Niners can draft in the 4th, give him the Banks treatment, redshirt him a year, than play him in 2025. The rest, IMO, need seasoning and work to get them up to speed. What Shanny has proven during his time in SF, is that he will not spend $$$ for OL unless you are Trent. He has let everyone else walk. He believes he can scheme up his OL.

Where the draft is NOT deep is WR, where the talent pool drops significantly past the 2nd round. The jump from Mitchell at the end of the 1st to Brendan Rice at the end of the 3rd is HUGE. To compound the issue, we have JJ, Aiyuk, Gray, Conway, at the end of their deals this year, we already lost Ray Ray, and Deebo's price tag jumps next season as well.

All just speculation at the end....just my $0.02

 

[DurbanPoison2121]

A couple draft day notes as we get closer...

I don't think we end up drafting a S, even though the only S on our roster currently are Huf and Brown...there are SO many S in FA right now (Gipson included!) that I don't see the Niners using early round draft capital on one unless that S has the versatility to cover the nickel as well.

I REALLY hope the Niners draft a C within the first 4 rounds. Barton, JPJ, Frazier, Van Pran, Bortolini, Nurzard, Limmer are all guys I feel can overtake Brendel by the BYE week. I just feel like Shanahan likes Brendel and McKivitz WAY more than the fans do.

Ladd McConkey is growing on me...and if Mitchell is off the board, I wouldn't be mad if we drafted Ladd at 31 for a couple reasons. First, he is a hellava WR, with nuanced moves to his game. Second, KC is looking for a WR and I would love nothing more than the Niners sticking it to the Chiefs by taking the guy they want. The talent drop-off from Mitchell/McConkey to the next WR is pretty steep. I anticipate the Niners drafting two WRs, one early and one late, with the latter being more of a return specialist.

There are some DUDES late in this draft at DT. We need a run stuffing, high energy coke machine sized dude in the middle of our defense and this draft has a few! McKinley Jackson from Texas A&M, Khristian Boyd from Northern Iowa, DeWayne Carter from Duke are all dudes I wouldn't be mad at if the Niners wanted to "DJ Jones" this draft and get a keeper in the 6th.

Watching most of these OT tape has me believing that more of these guys will end up inside at G then staying out on the edges.

Anyone else wanna see the Niners draft a QB with their last pick every year now that Purdy has been so successful?

 

[deep9er]

A couple draft day notes as we get closer...

I don't think we end up drafting a S, even though the only S on our roster currently are Huf and Brown...there are SO many S in FA right now (Gipson included!) that I don't see the Niners using early round draft capital on one unless that S has the versatility to cover the nickel as well.

I REALLY hope the Niners draft a C within the first 4 rounds. Barton, JPJ, Frazier, Van Pran, Bortolini, Nurzard, Limmer are all guys I feel can overtake Brendel by the BYE week. I just feel like Shanahan likes Brendel and McKivitz WAY more than the fans do.

Ladd McConkey is growing on me...and if Mitchell is off the board, I wouldn't be mad if we drafted Ladd at 31 for a couple reasons. First, he is a hellava WR, with nuanced moves to his game. Second, KC is looking for a WR and I would love nothing more than the Niners sticking it to the Chiefs by taking the guy they want. The talent drop-off from Mitchell/McConkey to the next WR is pretty steep. I anticipate the Niners drafting two WRs, one early and one late, with the latter being more of a return specialist.

There are some DUDES late in this draft at DT. We need a run stuffing, high energy coke machine sized dude in the middle of our defense and this draft has a few! McKinley Jackson from Texas A&M, Khristian Boyd from Northern Iowa, DeWayne Carter from Duke are all dudes I wouldn't be mad at if the Niners wanted to "DJ Jones" this draft and get a keeper in the 6th.

Watching most of these OT tape has me believing that more of these guys will end up inside at G then staying out on the edges.

Anyone else wanna see the Niners draft a QB with their last pick every year now that Purdy has been so successful?

If we keep this many picks, they'll draft a S.

My personal hope is 2 of first 3 picks are O-line, ie OT and C. But personal opinion is secondary to BPA. Lean BPA because next year we don't want to find out our top picks aren't good. The draft is about players who pan out even if not filling our CURRENT needs.

Knowing how they draft, don't see a WR at 31st, more likely a DT or DE? Also because one of the top DTs MIGHT fall because the top OTs were all taken.

Agree, a late round run stuffing NT would be nice. Odds are low he becomes a DJ Jones quality, but you have to try.

If there's a QB worth a 7th rounder, do it.

 

[deep9er]

49ers Trade Brandon Aiyuk to Jaguars and take Brian Thomas Jr. in Latest Mock Draft

The San Francisco 49ers are projected to trade Brandon Aiyuk to the Jacksonville Jaguars and take LSU wide receiver Brian Thomas Jr. with the 17th pick in Benjamin Allbright's latest mock draft.

www.si.com

For me, if they did make this trade, then they draft an OT. I'm sure Thomas is a talented WR but these OT's are really good too. As we all know, it is very hard to obtain good OT's especially when drafting late 1st round. I'd project us to continue drafting late 1st round for a few more seasons.

Anyway, earlier felt they'd only trade Aiyuk if HE wanted out of SF. There hasn't been any indication of this so in the end, they'll extend BA even though for much higher than Lynch budgeted.

 

[DurbanPoison2121]

If we keep this many picks, they'll draft a S.

My personal hope is 2 of first 3 picks are O-line, ie OT and C. But personal opinion is secondary to BPA. Lean BPA because next year we don't want to find out our top picks aren't good. The draft is about players who pan out even if not filling our CURRENT needs.

Knowing how they draft, don't see a WR at 31st, more likely a DT or DE? Also because one of the top DTs MIGHT fall because the top OTs were all taken.

Agree, a late round run stuffing NT would be nice. Odds are low he becomes a DJ Jones quality, but you have to try.

If there's a QB worth a 7th rounder, do it.

What if a player like Penix is the BPA Deep? You want us to draft a player in a position that has no clear path to starting? That doesn't make sense.

 

[Brightboat]

Ridiculous first round pick by the 49ers. they don't have a place to play this guy and they had so many other areas of greater need.

 

[Sandisfan]

I know that draft lists by even the experts aren't always good on the ratings but Pearsall wasn't even a third round rating by many draft lists! Why that high If you think you can get that player later, why overdraft? I can't see picking THAT WR before the second round. TRADE DOWN don't overdraft and get assets, then draft even 10 picks later. you could get a 2nd or at least a third then package that pick to move back up. UGH It seems too often Shanny(& Co.) overthinks the draft and figures he/they are the smartest guys in the room. When people think they are the smartest guy in the room they usually end up with egg on their faces. I can't think of a team that drafted that far off the board where that team has been shown to be right. UGH

 

[deep9er]

What if a player like Penix is the BPA Deep? You want us to draft a player in a position that has no clear path to starting? That doesn't make sense.

Correct and why I say "lean" over to BPA, not absolutely no question go BPA.

 

[deep9er]

Ridiculous first round pick by the 49ers. they don't have a place to play this guy and they had so many other areas of greater need.

First I stand corrected, didn't think they'd go WR at 31st.

Second, not convinced he was our 'BPA', guess i have to keep reading stuff.

 

[Groo]

Well, that was certainly a surprise pick.
They must really feel that he fits the system
And that one of our starters is not for long in the red&gold.
Otherwise someone ought to have to reminded the braintrust there's still only one ball.

 

[deep9er]

Well, that was certainly a surprise pick.
They must really feel that he fits the system
And that one of our starters is not for long in the red&gold.
Otherwise someone ought to have to reminded the braintrust there's still only one ball.

Yep
The had to have been totally, utterly convinced he's a fit
Probably not but guess we MIGHT consider a future 1st rounder?
Yep, a stronger O-line helps BOTH run and pass. A stronger O-line also protects Purdy more consistently.

We can still have a successful draft, we'll see?

 

[Brightboat]

I know that draft lists by even the experts aren't always good on the ratings but Pearsall wasn't even a third round rating by many draft lists! Why that high If you think you can get that player later, why overdraft? I can't see picking THAT WR before the second round. TRADE DOWN don't overdraft and get assets, then draft even 10 picks later. you could get a 2nd or at least a third then package that pick to move back up. UGH It seems too often Shanny(& Co.) overthinks the draft and figures he/they are the smartest guys in the room. When people think they are the smartest guy in the room they usually end up with egg on their faces. I can't think of a team that drafted that far off the board where that team has been shown to be right. UGH

Exactly

 

[Brightboat]

Well, that was certainly a surprise pick.
They must really feel that he fits the system
And that one of our starters is not for long in the red&gold.
Otherwise someone ought to have to reminded the braintrust there's still only one ball.

Might fit the system but why draft him in the first round when you could most likely get him in the third round. Now he has undue pressure on him to perform as a first rounder when he doesn’t have first round talent

 

[Groo]

Might fit the system but why draft him in the first round when you could most likely get him in the third round. Now he has undue pressure on him to perform as a first rounder when he doesn’t have first round talent

I would hazard to guess that are brain trust out smarted themselves. Thusly developing blinders.

 

[Niner Outlaw]

This is another of Kyle's "I'll show everyone how smart I am" mistakes. The team has serious needs at OL, CB, etc. McKinstry was there, Powers-Johnson was there, we had out choice of DTs and we could've just traded down as well. But NO. What do we do? We take a WR that most had rated as a late 2nd round player. This was a full round reach imo. It would make more sense if we had traded Deebo, but that probably isn't going to happen this year (cap reasons), and even if we had traded Deebo, it's still a big reach for Pearsall.

The guy is 6'1, 190 and he'll be 24 when the season starts. Overall, this pick feels like AJ Jenkins or Dante Pettis all over again. Unless the guy turns out to be a faster version of Cooper Kupp, this has bust written all over it.

On the plus side of this:
--A natural athlete, very athletic, the kind who could excel in almost any sport
--Pearsall can play inside and outside and can also return punts and kicks
--I've seen him rated as the 40-something best player in the draft
--Pearsall had good reviews at the Senior Bowl
--He posted impressive numbers at the Combine, recording a 4.41-second time in the 40-yard dash, a vertical jump of 42 inches (1/2 away from best among WRs), a broad jump of 10 feet, 9 inches, a 6.64-second three-cone drill time (best among WRs), 17 reps on the bench press, and a 20-yard shuttle time of 4.05 seconds.
--He scored 9.9 in the Relative Athletic Score test (out of a possible 10)
--Runs great routes and knows how to gain separation
--Has great hands, rarely drops a pass
--He's known was a tough player who can block and run after the catch (both necessary things for the Niner WRs)
--Players like CJ Stroud and BA loved the pick.

 

[Niner Outlaw]

Greg Cosell's thoughts on Pearsall:

STRENGTHS:

- Good-sized wide receiver with extensive experience outside and in the slot. He has natural quickness to his movement.

- Extensive experience with multiple splits to the boundary and to the field. A lot of location versatility.

- Short-area quickness and burst to defeat press and get cleanly into routes. He has build-up speed into his vertical stem.

- Loose-hipped with feel for working through traffic on in-breaking routes. Excellent lateral movement-quickness.

- Showed subtle, refined understanding of route running re: vertical stem, feints, head movements and QB indicators.

- Understood coverages and how to attack them. Showed excellent feel for reading zone and settling into voids.

- Outstanding hands catching the ball easily away from his frame. Made tough hands catches with arm extension.

- Caught through contact effectively and attacked the ball vs. good coverage. More than just a finesse receiver.

- Showed high-level ball tracking skills, with the body control to contort his frame and make over-the-shoulder catches.

WEAKNESSES:

- Not truly explosive as a mover, but that is not an overall weakness in his game, given what he is as a receiver.

BOTTOM LINE:

"Pearsall turned out to be one of my favorite receivers to watch as I got deeper into his tape and evaluation. He has extensive experience lining up outside and the slot. While many might box him in as a slot prospect, I believe with the expansion of NFL pass game concepts and the increase in multiple formations, Pearsall can be location versatile in addition to being deployed as a motion receiver which he did at Florida in 2023."