Game Thread: NFC Championship Game: #3 Detroit Lions @ #1 San Francisco 49ers

[belcherboy]

The Lions ranked 27th in passing yards and 27th in passing TDs allowed. Is it a chicken/egg thing? Are the Lions are so weak against the pass that teams don’t run on them much? And let's not forget that they allowed 185+ rushing yards to the Broncos, Raiders, Chargers, and Packers. In the 3 games where they held the opponent below 100yds rushing, they allowed plenty in yards passing (340 Bucs, 253 Ravens, 311 Vikings).

I disagree. i foresee a high-scoring game. The Niner defense is relatively weak against the pass and the Lions pass well. OTOH, the Lions are bottom-third of the league in pass defense (and 29th in net yards per pass attempt) and the Niners are the most efficient passing offense in the NFL. I think we'll see more than expected scoring.

The Lions, from my view, have been the "bend don't break" type pass defense for much of the season. Teams move the ball fairly easily through the air, but if the front line can get to the QB a few times in a drive, they can minimize the weakness in the secondary. In other words, they may give up 40-50 passing yards on a drive, but a well time sack or two can force a FG or a punt.

Now don't get me wrong, I imagine that the Lions are still in the bottom half of the league in the sack stat on defense, but it does feel like they get the sack when they need it many times, and it stalls out a drive forcing a punt or forces a FG.

I'm not sure what to expect from this 49ers game though. My head tells me that the 49ers should win it fairly easily. My hope is that Detroit's defense can get some pressure on Purdy and effectively contain Mac. If they can do those things, I think the Lions will be in a position at the end of the game to pull off the upset in Cali this weekend. The other side is how Goff handles pressure too. If he makes a few bad mistakes/turnovers, it will likely end the game quickly.

 

[belcherboy]

As has been pointed out already...Shanahan's game plan Saturday night was horrible. CMac with 17 carries in that game was ridiculous. The 49ers were incredibly lucky to come away with the W. I know the Lions are good against the run, but CMac needs at least 20+ carries in that game. He most likely won't average 6 ypc, but he doesn't need to. They cannot put the game in Purdy's hands.

That's a good call. I was wondering why TB didn't continue running the ball on Detroit on Sunday. They were having good success with it, but they simply abandoned it for some reason. I imagine they will try to run the ball a bit more on Detroit than TB did last game.

 

[Sharkonabicycle]

The Lions ranked 27th in passing yards and 27th in passing TDs allowed. Is it a chicken/egg thing? Are the Lions are so weak against the pass that teams don’t run on them much? And let's not forget that they allowed 185+ rushing yards to the Broncos, Raiders, Chargers, and Packers. In the 3 games where they held the opponent below 100yds rushing, they allowed plenty in yards passing (340 Bucs, 253 Ravens, 311 Vikings).

I disagree. i foresee a high-scoring game. The Niner defense is relatively weak against the pass and the Lions pass well. OTOH, the Lions are bottom-third of the league in pass defense (and 29th in net yards per pass attempt) and the Niners are the most efficient passing offense in the NFL. I think we'll see more than expected scoring.

I always go by Yards per attempt when it comes to rushing. Yards per game is generally meaningless to me... obviously a crappy team is going to get run on WAY more and a GOOD team is going to get passed on way more. Yards per attempt is the telling story to me... So when I said Detroit was one of the better teams against the run that's the metric I was naturally using (and everyone should use).

Could be a high scoring game... dunno. Again, gotta wait for the injury report. If Samuel is out, and the Lions OL is banged up, could be lower scoring as I still don't trust Purdy to take over in a passing game. Green Bay would've downed him if they didn't drop 2 interceptions that were gifted to em'.

 

[Niner Outlaw]

The Lions ranked 27th in passing yards and 27th in passing TDs allowed. Is it a chicken/egg thing? Are the Lions are so weak against the pass that teams don’t run on them much? And let's not forget that they allowed 185+ rushing yards to the Broncos, Raiders, Chargers, and Packers. In the 3 games where they held the opponent below 100yds rushing, they allowed plenty in yards passing (340 Bucs, 253 Ravens, 311 Vikings).

I disagree. i foresee a high-scoring game. The Niner defense is relatively weak against the pass and the Lions pass well. OTOH, the Lions are bottom-third of the league in pass defense (and 29th in net yards per pass attempt) and the Niners are the most efficient passing offense in the NFL. I think we'll see more than expected scoring.

@Sharkonabicycle, and everyone else, please ignore post # 40 (mods please delete). i don't know how, but I mixed up the stats i was looking at. The Lions had only 5 games where they gave up more than 100yds rushing all this season. And you are correct, that yards per rushing attempt, or ypc, is the best rushing defense measure to use--where the Lions are a top 3 defense.

That doesn't really change my point on the Lions weak pass defense--they are 29th in net yards per passing attempt allowed. The 3rd worst in the league. While the Niners are 1st in net yards per passing attempt on offense. That's why I still see a higher than expected scoring output.

 

[Jikkle]

Tends to get glossed over since the Lions have been successful but Goff still can do the things that drove McVay nuts and ultimately led to that Stafford trade. The 9ers usually at least got 1 pick 6 a year off him for like 3 seasons straight.

So neither QB should be really all that high on the trust factor but the weather is supposed to be nice at game time so I suspect Purdy won't struggle nearly as much as he did against the Pack but that doesn't mean you can fool him into throwing an INT. I just expect his passes will be more on target consistently in this game.

Deebo update is the X-rays were negative and his status is 50-50 which I'm going to say he's going to play. Regular season game you probably sit him out a week but in a must-win NFC Championship game as long as he can hold onto the ball he'll play. Apparently, he wanted to go back in against the Pack but since his injury was similar to the Browns one where he had a hairline fracture Shanahan didn't want to risk it.

 

[Sharkonabicycle]

@Sharkonabicycle, and everyone else, please ignore post # 40 (mods please delete). i don't know how, but I mixed up the stats i was looking at. The Lions had only 5 games where they gave up more than 100yds rushing all this season. And you are correct, that yards per rushing attempt, or ypc, is the best rushing defense measure to use--where the Lions are a top 3 defense.

That doesn't really change my point on the Lions weak pass defense--they are 29th in net yards per passing attempt allowed. The 3rd worst in the league. While the Niners are 1st in net yards per passing attempt on offense. That's why I still see a higher than expected scoring output.

No worries mah dude. Mistakes happen. I make them on this site as well

Yah it'll be interesting to see how Purdy handles a poor pass defense. Rumor is Detroit was pretty miffed Seattle took Witherspoon (which obviously would help them). I'm just curious to see if Samuel is out. I know the 9ers still have Kittle and Aiyuk but Samuel adds another dimension. If he's out Detroit may be able to shore up the pass decently. Detroit was one of the better teams against tight ends during the season if I recall correctly.

 

[Jikkle]

Weirdly the 9ers can't play the "nobody believes in us" card but Purdy somehow can. I don't think I've seen a QB who led his team on a 4th quarter game-winning drive in the playoffs get dismissed this badly. He obviously didn't play great but neither did a lot of QBs who had heroic comebacks that gave their team the win.

As far as the pressure factor goes for either team I'd say it's a wash. 9ers have the expectations of being the #1 seed and this being their 3rd straight NFC championship appearance in a row but this is the best Lions team in decades and they've got the weight of all the Lions fans who are hoping this is finally there time.

Ultimately though I was never a fan of the whole "house money" or "too young to know" arguments because I feel those are the fan's feelings more than the players. With all these teams all they see is the opponent in front of them and that they need to beat them. They know the stakes and they aren't thinking we're glad to be here or ignorant of what playing in a big game is like.

 

[Jikkle]

I think the Niners will be better but I also think Shanahan coached a terrible game in bad weather. He was so set on his "gameplan" and didn't adjust to the simple fact that his QB was obviously uncomfortable and couldn't properly grip and throw throw the ball. I like Purdy but he has real issues in wet weather. Kyle can be a little stubborn and get into trouble at times. He really dodged a huge bullet Saturday because if Green Bay would have finished them off, the negative Purdy spin would have been the talking point the entire off-season. Sadly, Purdy would have been in the cross hairs when it should be Shanahan. Purdy had a subpar game but he really shouldn't have been in that situation. Even Andy Reid is smart enough to run the damn ball in bad weather. Mahomes with 23 drop backs while Purdy has 39? Stupid play calling. I think we will see San Fran get back to what they do best and not try to get cute but we will also see if Deebo can go or for how long if he does. Tough test for the Lions but I am really rooting for them, obviously.

The game highlighted all of Shanahan's faults as a coach.

It was probably the right gameplan if the weather wasn't a factor which is why he likely didn't want to budge off of it but rain was forecasted all week so he really should've had a Plan B ready to go. And I'm sure Deebo getting hurt didn't help but you still can't let one player going down (outside of QB) just throw you completely off on offense.

His other fault is he can be way too conservative at times it doesn't make sense to be conservative or where so measured risk-taking is appropriate. At the end of the 1st half they had plenty of time and the timeouts to go for a TD but opted to focus on killing the clock and going for the FG attempt. In that particular scenario you should focus on going for the TD and if you come up short kick the FG. In the playoffs I'm a firm believer you have to take calculated risks if you want to win championships and most teams that win Super Bowls take some calculated risks along the way.

 

[broncosmitty]

Tends to get glossed over since the Lions have been successful but Goff still can do the things that drove McVay nuts and ultimately led to that Stafford trade. The 9ers usually at least got 1 pick 6 a year off him for like 3 seasons straight.

So neither QB should be really all that high on the trust factor but the weather is supposed to be nice at game time so I suspect Purdy won't struggle nearly as much as he did against the Pack but that doesn't mean you can fool him into throwing an INT. I just expect his passes will be more on target consistently in this game.

Deebo update is the X-rays were negative and his status is 50-50 which I'm going to say he's going to play. Regular season game you probably sit him out a week but in a must-win NFC Championship game as long as he can hold onto the ball he'll play. Apparently, he wanted to go back in against the Pack but since his injury was similar to the Browns one where he had a hairline fracture Shanahan didn't want to risk it.

Funny thing to me on the pick six thing…

Stafford has thrown the second most ever, 30. Should catch Favre next year. He has 32.

Goff has thrown 9. He threw two against SF as a Ram. One as a Lion. He’s thrown more after the trade then he did before it.

 

[phantomfoul88]

Last time Lions and Niners met in the playoffs this guy's prayers weren't answered as just seconds later Eddie Murray missed a game winning 43yd FG.

 

[Tai Chi≈Surfing]

Icymi


DeeeeeeeeeeBo update....

49ers' Samuel doesn't have fracture in shoulder

49ers coach Kyle Shanahan said Monday afternoon that imaging did not show another break in Deebo Samuel's shoulder, which at least leaves the door open for him to return this week.

www.espn.com

 

[Robotech]

The last time the Lions advanced to the NFL's championship game (1958, so it wasn't the Super Bowl), they beat the Niners in the previous round. It's time for the Niners to exact some revenge!

 

[Ojb81]

Heard that about you.


Also heard you be likin the Browns. That’s what people are sayin…

 

[Robotech]

There is video of the 1957 Niners-Lions playoff game. I said 1958 above, but it was actually 1958. The game was played at Kezar Stadium. Back then, the West division winner played the East division winner for the NFL championship, but because the Lions and Niners were tied and had split their two games, they had to play this tiebreaker game.

Yes, the Lions were a West division team. They made a great comeback against the Niners after being down 24-7, and then they demolished the Browns 59-14 the following week to win the 1957 title.

 

[calsnowskier]

The last time the Lions advanced to the NFL's championship game (1958, so it wasn't the Super Bowl), they beat the Niners in the previous round. It's time for the Niners to exact some revenge!

Too soon, dude. Too soon.

 

[Battlelyon]

 

[Jikkle]

Deebo's injury status is getting all the attention but the Lions' offensive line situation bears watching as well.

Jackson for sure is out and maybe a Lions fan can chime in about Ragnow's status as I know he gutted out having a sprained knee and ankle and haven't heard though how serious it is and how the odds of him playing.

 

[Mebert]

Deebo's injury status is getting all the attention but the Lions' offensive line situation bears watching as well.

Jackson for sure is out and maybe a Lions fan can chime in about Ragnow's status as I know he gutted out having a sprained knee and ankle and haven't heard though how serious it is and how the odds of him playing.

Ragnow has needed foot surgery for 3 years, but he does not have enough cartilage to repair it. So he just ignores it. I would be shocked if he didn't play. Dude is next level tough.

 

[UTVolCountry]

I'm rooting for Detroit all the way, hope they win it all

 

[Niner Outlaw]

Hard to believe that narrative still exists. Then again, considering how observant the causal fan is...