National Championship: Breakdown and Analysis

[DeafOranguntan]

I did a full breakdown of each team last year and for the semi-final this year. I really enjoy doing these, but I have also received a lot of positive responses in the past, so I'll post the same here. These stats only contain the results up to the playoffs, except for the scores in the second half of the season, which are reflective of the last 8 games each team has played. The opponent ranking comparisons also considers the semifinals. As always, this will be long, so feel free to scroll past if you’re not interested in seeing the comparison.

LSU:

Offense

• Scoring Offense: #3 (47.7 ppg)
• Total Offense: #1 (554.4 ypg)
• Passing Offense: #2 (386.6 ypg)
• Yards per Att.: #3 (10.6)
• Rushing Offense: #61 (167.2) ypg
• Yards per Rush: #54 (4.84)
• 3rd Down Percentage: #5 (.509)
• Sacks Given Up: #72 (30 sacks)
• Turnovers Lost: Tied for #9 (5 fumbles, 7 interceptions, 12 total)
• Offensive Balance: Rushing 48% of Plays, Passing 52%
• Offensive Line Avg. Size: (6'4", 321 pounds)
• Average time left when first string is pulled: 9:14 left in fourth quarter

QB Stats- 77.6% completions, 4,715 yards, 48 touchdowns, 6 interceptions, 449 yards, 3 touchdowns
Second Half of Season – 76.4% completions, 372 ypg, 23 touchdowns, 3 interceptions
RB Stats- 6.6 ypc, 1304 yards, 16 touchdowns
Top Receiver Stats- 1498 yards, 18 touchdowns

Defense

• Scoring Defense: #28 (21.6 ppg)
• Total Defense: #31 (341.4 ypg)
• Passing Defense: #55 (222.1 ypg)
• Yards per Pass: #54 (6.47 ypa)
• Rushing Defense: #25 (119.6 ypg)
• Yards per Rush: #27 (3.7 ypc)
• 3rd Down Defense: #11 (.307)
• Sacks: #42 (2.5)
• Turnovers Gained: #29
• Defensive Touchdowns: #106

• Penalties per game: #91
• Average Score Second Half of Season (last 8 games): 45-22

#3 Clemson:

Offense

• Scoring Offense: #4 (46.5 ppg)
• Total Offense: #3 (547.7 ypg)
• Passing Offense: #20 (294.8 ypg)
• Yards per Att.: #7 (8.81)
• Rushing Offense: #9 (252.9 ypg)
• Yards per Rush: #1 (6.46)
• 3rd Down Percentage: #13 (.474)
• Sacks Given Up: #5 (13 sacks)
• Turnovers Lost: Tied for #27 (4 fumbles, 10 interceptions, 14 total) - only one lost second half of season
• Offensive Balance: Rushing 54% of Plays, Passing 46%
• Offensive Line Avg. Size: (6'4", 325 pounds)
• Average time left when first string is pulled: 7:21 left in the third quarter

QB Stats- 68.8% completions, 3172 yards, 34 touchdowns, 8 interceptions, 407 yards rushing, 7 touchdowns
Second Half of Season - 76.7% completions, 273 ypg, 23 touchdowns, 0 interceptions
RB Stats- 8.2 ypc, 1500 yards, 17 touchdowns
Top Receiver Stats- 1082 yards, 13 touchdowns

Defense

• Scoring Defense: #1 (10.6 ppg)
• Total Defense: #1 (244.7 ypg)
• Passing Defense: #1 (138.5 ypg)
• Yards per Pass: #1 (5.33 ypa)
• Rushing Defense: #9 (106.2 ypg)
• Yards per Rush: #8 (2.96 ypc)
• 3rd Down Defense: #10 (.302)
• Sacks: #17 (2.85)
• Turnovers Gained: #2
• Defensive Touchdowns: #10

• Penalties per game: #40
• Average Score Second Half of Season: 48-10

Opponent Rankings (and 2 best teams faced in each category)

LSU Opponents

· Winning Percentage: .568
· Passing Offense: #67 (Bama- #3, UF - #16)
· Rushing Offense: #52 (Ga. South. - #8, Ole Miss - #9)
· Passing Defense: #67 (Bama - #9, UF - #17)
· Rushing Defense: #51 (UGA - #3, UF - #11)

Clemson’s Opponents

· Winning Percentage: .548
· Passing Offenses: #55 (Wake - #24, UNC - #25)
· Rushing Offenses: #51 (OSU - #3, BC- #5)
· Passing Defense: #68 (OSU - #2, GT - #33)
· Rushing Defense: #72 (OSU - #4, UVA - #30)

 

[DeafOranguntan]

Position Analysis

• Quarterbacks – This is about as close as you can get, with the two best quarterbacks in college football and the very likely #1 draft pick this year and #1 pick next year. However, the two took very different roads to get to this game. Lawrence was long considered the #1 QB in the class of 2018, and had teams banging on his door. He won the starting job shortly into his freshman year and has not looked back, starting his college career 25-0 and winning a national championship as a true freshman. Though he got off to a rocky start, he’s played better than anyone in the second half of the season. Last week, Lawrence played from behind in the fourth for the first time in his career, but showed his grit as an outstanding rushing threat alongside his passing abilities. Joe Burrow came from much more humble beginnings, a 3 star quarterback ranked as the #24 QB for the class of 2015 and the #280 prospect nationwide. He never was able to crack the rotation for Ohio State, and transferred away to LSU. He had a mediocre season in 2018, before exploding in the current offense and racing to the #1 position in completion percentage, touchdowns, and #2 in passing yards, winning the Heisman by the largest margin in recent memory, and breaking many playoff records en route to a shellacking of overmatched Oklahoma. This is an impossible matchup to predict. Edge – Draw.

• Running Backs – Clyde Edwards-Helaire has had a very respectable season, averaging 6.6 yards per carry for 1304 yards and 16 touchdowns. However, Helaire has been beat up and was not 100% for Oklahoma. His backup, Tyrion Davis-Price, is an enormous drop off in effectiveness, averaging 4.6 yards for 295 yards and 6 touchdowns. Travis Etienne, a Louisiana back that LSU let get away, has established himself as one of the most elite backs in the country. He averages 8 yards a carry for 1,536 yards and 18 touchdowns. Last week, he also showed his abilities at receiving, having 3 receptions for 98 yards and 2 touchdowns on Ohio State’s vaunted defense. He may also be angry given his family’s receiving numerous death threats over the past week from LSU fans. His backup, Lyn-J Dixon, has proven nearly as explosive, averaging 6.2 ypc for 636 yards and 6 touchdowns. Edge – Clemson.

• Wide Receivers – Clemson has long been known as wide receiver U, and this year has been no different. Their large squadron of 5 stars have established very nice seasons, despite playing fewer snaps than any other starting wide receiver group in the nation. Before the season, many wondered who would replace Hunter Renfrow. Amari Rodgers moved to the slot and has excelled, and Tee Higgins and Justyn Ross have established themselves as one of the top duos nationwide, though both were banged up in the Ohio State game. Neither is a burner but both have huge heights and hands that can catch anything, as opposing fans can see every game. Clemson has also been very happy with its two true freshman 5 Stars, Joseph Ngata and Frank Ladson. LSU’s wide receivers have exploded for an unbelievable season Ja’Marr Chase and Justin Jefferson have devastated defenses all season long with their freakish speed, combining for nearly 3,000 receiving yards and 36 touchdowns. However, they have not been Burrow’s only targets, as Terrace Marshall and Thaddeus Moss have also played extremely well. These are two of the nation’s top receiving corps, and it will be interesting to see them work against one another’s defenses. Edge – LSU.

• Offensive Line – LSU’s offensive line is one of the largest in the nation, averaging 6’4” and 321 pounds. It has been very good this season, as fans may have seen the huge time Burrow often gets to throw. However, they have shown some vulnerabilities this season, only managing to be #54 in yards per rush and #72 in sacks allowed (though some of that results from Burrow’s holding onto the ball too long). Clemson’s line is one of the few larger, averaging 4 pounds more. The senior laden line has been dominant, being #5 in sacks and #1 in rushing yards per attempt. The group was pushed to the limit against Ohio State’s defensive line, the best in the nation. However, they had a good game (especially after the first quarter), including their young left tackle Jackson Carman dominating Chase Young, holding him to 2 tackles all night. Edge – Clemson.

• Front 7 – This is a weakness in both teams’ defenses. Clemson’s defensive line was expected to take a large step back, but fans held out hope that 5 Star defensive ends Xavier Thomas and KJ Henry would retain some of the dominance Clemson enjoyed for the past 5 years. However, Clemson has struggled at pressuring quarterbacks at times, ranking #17 in sacks and #8 in yards per rush. Luckily, Clemson’s linebackers are blessed with Chad Smith, the Fiesta Bowl MVP, and Isaiah Simmons, one of the two best defensive players in the country. LSU’s defensive line has similarly struggled at getting to QBs, #27 in yards per rush and #42 in sacks. However, they have gone up against some of the most elite offensive lines in football this season. Slight Edge – Clemson.

• Defensive Backs – Coming into the season, everyone thought this would be a strength for Clemson, and it has not disappointed. The veteran secondary is #1 in passing defense and yards per pass and is #2 in turnovers gained and #10 in defensive touchdowns. LSU has a ton of talent in their secondary, including a shutdown corner in Derek Stingley Jr. They’ve also played much better in the last 4 games, including being top 15 in most statistics during that time. However, outside of Oklahoma, that did come against the #61 total offense, the #72 total offense, and the #110 total offense. LSU’s scheme also is similar to Alabama’s from a few years ago, including leaving its corners on an island, where Clemson’s wide receivers’ height advantage should prove problematic. They’ve also struggled greatly against their top 4 passing threats, who completed 69% of their passes for 351 yards (on average), 13 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions. Clemson’s top 4 passing opponents completed 54% of their passes for 153 yards, 3 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions. Edge – Clemson.

• Special Teams – LSU’s special teams have been great this year. Cade York has sunk 21 of 26 field goals, including 4 of 5 from outside the 50. Zach Von Rosenberg has punted it 40 times for 42.5 yards a punt. Clemson’s B.T. Potter has only connected on 12 of 20 field goal attempts. Will Spiers has been questionable punting most of the season. He has punted it 44 times for 42.84 yards a punt. However, this largely comes from his game against Ohio State, where he had 7 punts for 44.9 yards each. Edge – LSU

• Coaching – Since Ed Orgeron took over in 2016, he has greatly improved the LSU Tigers. In that time, he is 9-7 against top 25 opponents (including 5 wins this year). He is 3-1 in Bowls, beating Louisville, UCF, and Oklahoma. His offensive coordinator, Steve Ensminger, has a long history with the LSU tigers (including acting as their tight ends coach for their national championship attempt in 2011). He also coached at Clemson in the late 90s. However, his job got a lot easier with the hiring of 30 year old Joe Brady. Brady took what he learned under Drew Brees and Joe Lombardi and changed LSU’s offense overnight, taking the 88th most accurate QB and turning him into the most accurate. While this coaching staff has never been in an extremely important game before this one, they became battle tested this season, beating 6 teams that were ranked in the top 10 when they played them (though only 3 are still ranked there). This is Clemson’s staffs’ fifth playoff appearance in a row. In all those games, Clemson’s had the same head coach, same offensive coordinators, and same defensive coordinator. Since 2015, Clemson is 19-2 against top 25 opponents. After 2012’s embarrassment at the hands of West Virginia, Dabo Swinney went and hired Brent Venables, who is now widely considered the greatest defensive coordinator in the country. Since that game, Clemson has not looked back. They are 9-2 in the post-season, beating LSU, Notre Dame, Oklahoma twice, Alabama twice, and Ohio State three times. Their average margin of victory in those wins has been 21 points. They’ve also gone against some amazing players in that time, including: Odell Beckham Jr., Ezekiel Elliot, Joey Bosa, Baker Mayfield (and Lamar Jackson multiple times), Jonathan Allen, Minkah Fitzpatrick, Jalen Hurts, Tua, and Quinnen Williams. Edge – Clemson.

Conclusion

I always love doing these because you really learn a lot about a team by doing a breakdown like this. I was surprised by a few things when looking up these teams. I didn’t know LSU’s defense had improved this drastically in the last few games, though as pointed out, it did happen against mediocre offenses. It’s also very interesting that the stats of their opponents worked out the way they did. I was probably most surprised by how long Orgeron left the first string in this season. Their first string averaged playing nearly a quarter longer than Clemson’s. At first, you’d think that’s because they played these several very tough games. However, Orgeron only pulled his first string before the fourth quarter in 3 games (Georgia Southern, Utah State, and Arkansas). If Dabo left in the first string as long as Orgeron did (and was still passing), Trevor Lawrence would have approximately 4,553 passing yards and 47 touchdowns and Tee Higgins and Justyn Ross would have almost identical stats to Chase and Jefferson. I was finally shocked at how balanced LSU’s offense is (the most balanced of ranked teams in the nation), as I thought they were a very pass heavy team.

Ultimately, this game is easier to compare than Ohio State and Clemson, where it seemed in every stat, the two were ranked #1 and #2 and rotated which one was which. The comparison is pretty clear here. Clemson is without question the more well-rounded team. They excel in every phase of the game, which explains their beating opponents 48-10 the last 8 games of the season. LSU has a decent defense, though it is worse than at least their last 5 years’ defenses. They’ve been especially suspect against elite offenses, and Joe Burrow was outplayed this year by Sam Ehlinger, (an injured) Tua, and arguably Trask. LSU’s running game is genuinely bad, as LSU runs the ball 48% of the time yet is #54 in rushing yards per carry and #61 in total yards. With Helaire at less than 100%, the drop-off will be even more extreme. However, Joe Burrow has been phenomenal, with 3 receivers completely dominating and one of the top receiving tight ends in the nation in Moss. Clemson’s matchup is very interesting, with the #1 defense in the country and coached by the defensive quarterback best at causing issues for QBs. Last year, Tua had thrown 43 touchdowns with only 4 picks but threw 2 against Venables’ schemes. Last week, Justin Fields had thrown 40 touchdowns with only 1 pick but threw 2 picks (and 2 others that were drops).

Clemson is likely to score on LSU. Clemson’s offense is the best LSU will have faced, though they are closest to Alabama (with a healthy Tua). The question is whether LSU’s passing attack will be able to sustain success against Clemson’s defense. I think they will have some success, but that Venables will be able to use his long experience and talented defense to slow down LSU.

Clemson wins – 45-28

 

[theboardref]

Lol k

 

[DeafOranguntan]

Lol k

Hey, deal with it. Those numbers are objective and I think my analysis is too. If you'd like to debate it, I'd love for you to, but it's going to be difficult when the numbers are right there.

I also have to say I'm glad you guys are a one hit wonder this year. Alabama fans never acted this way before those national championships. Meanwhile, the corndogs turn a blind eye to any logic and don't want to discuss the game, your QB and your coach constantly talk trash, and your fans send death threats to the families of opposing players. It's just really pathetic.

 

[michaeljordan_fan]

Tldr - LSU wins

 

[TigerBait1971]

 

[theboardref]

Hey, deal with it. Those numbers are objective and I think my analysis is too. If you'd like to debate it, I'd love for you to, but it's going to be difficult when the numbers are right there.

I also have to say I'm glad you guys are a one hit wonder this year. Alabama fans never acted this way before those national championships. Meanwhile, the corndogs turn a blind eye to any logic and don't want to discuss the game, your QB and your coach constantly talk trash, and your fans send death threats to the families of opposing players. It's just really pathetic.

Lol k

 

[cwalke3408]

#1 Passing Offense vs #1 Passing Defense

 

[CaptainStubing]

LSU favored by 5 and a half points.

I would give Clemson a fair chance of pulling out a win but I believe LSU is the better team.

 

[Rolltide94]

Clemson wins – 45-28

Hard to use statistics to compare teams when they play in two different leagues....one of which is 7-2 this bowl season, while the other is 4-6. I would definitely be surprised if Clemson holds LSU to 28 points...shocked in fact.

Statistics didn't make LSU's offensive line the Joe Moore Award winner...nor did they make Clemson's a finalist...nor will it give Clemson the edge come game time.

Clemson might win this game, but I see nothing to see that they are going to win by 17.

The most points Clemson has scored against P5 teams not in the ACC is 38, over 4-8 South Carolina. The only time you have gone over 45 against a team with a winning record was Wake Forest...who just lost to a not so great Michigan State team. LSU has been held to 28 or under one time, by Auburn.

If the final score is 45-28 I would find it more likely that Clemson lost than won.

 

[mrwallace2ku]

Turnovers Lost: Tied for #9 (5 fumbles, 7 interceptions, 12 total)

that stat jumped out right away…


good stuff OP.

 

[mrwallace2ku]

Clemson wins – 45-28

good read OP…hard to go against a team w a QB who is 25-0 since being a starter.



going to be a goodie no doubt.



WILL WATCH.

 

[Deep Creek]

I'm pulling for LSU. Not because I'm a corn dog, but because I want a new name added to the CFP winner list.

However, it would be fun to watch the meltdown from the other conference nutswingers if Clemson won. The "pathetic" ACC would own 1/2 of the CFP champions to date...even if they all belong to one team.

 

[cwalke3408]

I'm pulling for LSU. Not because I'm a corn dog, but because I want a new name added to the CFP winner list.

However, it would be fun to watch the meltdown from the other conference nutswingers if Clemson won. The "pathetic" ACC would own 1/2 of the CFP champions to date...even if they all belong to one team.

OSU fans are already claiming the National Title if Clemson wins

 

[Deep Creek]

OSU fans are already claiming the National Title if Clemson wins

Haha...but I doubt the rest of the ACC fans will claim a part of Clemson's nattys like the other conference's nutswingers!

 

[tducey]

Should be a good game. I like LSU to win 30-27.

 

[wazzu31]

Tldr - LSU wins

Clemson by 17

 

[Deep Creek]

Clemson by 17

 

[cwalke3408]

Haha...but I doubt the rest of the ACC fans will claim a part of Clemson's nattys like the other conference's nutswingers!

They take care of basketball, we take care of football. So it all works out pretty evenly

 

[DeafOranguntan]

Hard to use statistics to compare teams when they play in two different leagues....one of which is 7-2 this bowl season, while the other is 4-6. I would definitely be surprised if Clemson holds LSU to 28 points...shocked in fact.

Statistics didn't make LSU's offensive line the Joe Moore Award winner...nor did they make Clemson's a finalist...nor will it give Clemson the edge come game time.

Clemson might win this game, but I see nothing to see that they are going to win by 17.

The most points Clemson has scored against P5 teams not in the ACC is 38, over 4-8 South Carolina. The only time you have gone over 45 against a team with a winning record was Wake Forest...who just lost to a not so great Michigan State team. LSU has been held to 28 or under one time, by Auburn.

If the final score is 45-28 I would find it more likely that Clemson lost than won.

First, that seems like a strange comparison. Clemson only played 3 P5 teams not in the ACC. They played Texas A&M the second week of the season before kinks were worked out without a complete playbook. Against South Carolina, they pulled the starters in the third quarter. They could have certainly scored over 38 had they left them in. And Ohio State was the #2 scoring defense in the country. LSU is the #28.

Second, that's incorrect. Wake, Charlotte, and UVA all had winning records, and Clemson scored 52, 52, and 62 against them. And again, the important stat in my mind is that Orgeron almost never pulled Burrow early (only against the three worst opponents). Clemson almost always pulled its starters early. That's going to drastically impact the stats. If you want a more interesting stat to compensate for this, in the last 7 games of the season (not counting Ohio State), Clemson outscored its opponents 35-2 at halftime. In that same time, LSU was up on their opponents 23-8. It's actually really interesting. Clemson outscored its opponents on the year by an average score of 47-11. That's with pulling their first string halfway through the third on average. LSU outscored theirs on the year 48-22 and pulled their starters 13 minutes after Clemson. If you gave Clemson's first string that time and presumed they stayed relatively consistent, Clemson would have beaten their opponents 62-7 on average.

Third, I don't know why you would be shocked if LSU was held to only 28 points. It's not like Venables has never done it before. This year, LSU has averaged 7.9 yards a play, 554 yards, and 48 points a game. That's fantastic, no doubt. However, here's some history. In 2015, Oklahoma (with Baker Mayfield) was averaging 8.1 yards a play, 531 yards, and 48 points a game. Clemson held them to 17. 2016 Ohio State averaged 6.4 yards a play, 460 yards, and 41 points a game. Clemson held them to 0. 2018 Alabama averaged 7.9 yards a play, 524 yards, and 48 points a game. Clemson held them to 16. This year, Ohio State was averaging 7.1 yards a play, 532 yards, and 49 points a game (and that's against significantly better defenses). Clemson held them to 23.

There are four games with substantially similar offenses as LSU where Venables held them to under 28 points (half that on average actually). There is a very strong argument to be made that last year's Bama offense and this year's Ohio State were both better offenses than LSU. They were certainly far more balanced. Even this year, Alabama dominated LSU after the nasty start, and that was with a team devastated by injuries

Fourth, I think it's basic math. Auburn held LSU to 23 and that was the only team to do so. But a number of other teams held them to 42 or less (Utah State, Florida, Mississippi State, and Georgia). Clemson's the #1 defense and is far better than those other teams (Georgia's the closest). They have only allowed over 14 points three times this season, and only one over 20 (and that was a better offense than LSU's). After a rough first quarter because they hadn't played anyone with the speed, size, and aggression of Ohio State, the starters held that top offense to 7 points. If LSU scores 28, they'd score more than any other team this year. On the other side of the ball, Clemson scored 45 or more points 9 times this season. If they played starters as long as LSU did, they would have scored 45 or more 11 times this season. LSU has allowed 28 or more points 6 times. Clemson has a better offense statistically than all 6 of those teams. Only Alabama has a comparable offense, and they scored 41 with an injured QB and several other key injuries. I don't think it's a stretch to say Clemson could score 45 with a fully-healthy offense.

And Bowl records are only one piece of the puzzle, which is why I averaged the average stats of all their opponents as well. I think LSU could definitely win this game. But I think Ohio State was a better team than LSU, and LSU is a step back from them due to their average defense and poor offensive balance. I'm sticking with 45-28.