National Championship: Breakdown and Analysis

[DeafOranguntan]

good read OP…hard to go against a team w a QB who is 25-0 since being a starter.



going to be a goodie no doubt.



WILL WATCH.

Thanks. I'm definitely excited. Though my coworkers want to watch it with me. Not looking forward to that. I'm not a fun girl to watch Clemson with.

 

[Rolltide94]

First, that seems like a strange comparison. Clemson only played 3 P5 teams not in the ACC. They played Texas A&M the second week of the season before kinks were worked out without a complete playbook. Against South Carolina, they pulled the starters in the third quarter. They could have certainly scored over 38 had they left them in. And Ohio State was the #2 scoring defense in the country. LSU is the #28.

Second, that's incorrect. Wake, Charlotte, and UVA all had winning records, and Clemson scored 52, 52, and 62 against them. And again, the important stat in my mind is that Orgeron almost never pulled Burrow early (only against the three worst opponents). Clemson almost always pulled its starters early. That's going to drastically impact the stats. If you want a more interesting stat to compensate for this, in the last 7 games of the season (not counting Ohio State), Clemson outscored its opponents 35-2 at halftime. In that same time, LSU was up on their opponents 23-8. It's actually really interesting. Clemson outscored its opponents on the year by an average score of 47-11. That's with pulling their first string halfway through the third on average. LSU outscored theirs on the year 48-22 and pulled their starters 13 minutes after Clemson. If you gave Clemson's first string that time and presumed they stayed relatively consistent, Clemson would have beaten their opponents 62-7 on average.

Third, I don't know why you would be shocked if LSU was held to only 28 points. It's not like Venables has never done it before. This year, LSU has averaged 7.9 yards a play, 554 yards, and 48 points a game. That's fantastic, no doubt. However, here's some history. In 2015, Oklahoma (with Baker Mayfield) was averaging 8.1 yards a play, 531 yards, and 48 points a game. Clemson held them to 17. 2016 Ohio State averaged 6.4 yards a play, 460 yards, and 41 points a game. Clemson held them to 0. 2018 Alabama averaged 7.9 yards a play, 524 yards, and 48 points a game. Clemson held them to 16. This year, Ohio State was averaging 7.1 yards a play, 532 yards, and 49 points a game (and that's against significantly better defenses). Clemson held them to 23.

There are four games with substantially similar offenses as LSU where Venables held them to under 28 points (half that on average actually). There is a very strong argument to be made that last year's Bama offense and this year's Ohio State were both better offenses than LSU. They were certainly far more balanced. Even this year, Alabama dominated LSU after the nasty start, and that was with a team devastated by injuries

Fourth, I think it's basic math. Auburn held LSU to 23 and that was the only team to do so. But a number of other teams held them to 42 or less (Utah State, Florida, Mississippi State, and Georgia). Clemson's the #1 defense and is far better than those other teams (Georgia's the closest). They have only allowed over 14 points three times this season, and only one over 20 (and that was a better offense than LSU's). After a rough first quarter because they hadn't played anyone with the speed, size, and aggression of Ohio State, the starters held that top offense to 7 points. If LSU scores 28, they'd score more than any other team this year. On the other side of the ball, Clemson scored 45 or more points 9 times this season. If they played starters as long as LSU did, they would have scored 45 or more 11 times this season. LSU has allowed 28 or more points 6 times. Clemson has a better offense statistically than all 6 of those teams. Only Alabama has a comparable offense, and they scored 41 with an injured QB and several other key injuries. I don't think it's a stretch to say Clemson could score 45 with a fully-healthy offense.

And Bowl records are only one piece of the puzzle, which is why I averaged the average stats of all their opponents as well. I think LSU could definitely win this game. But I think Ohio State was a better team than LSU, and LSU is a step back from them due to their average defense and poor offensive balance. I'm sticking with 45-28.

TLDR: Clemson is the best when I cherry pick these stats, LSU is the worst when I cherry pick these stats.

I believe there is a significant gap between the ACC and the SEC. That is not to say that Clemson isn't better than LSU or vice versa, but claiming Clemson has the #1 this or that based on stats is bullshit.

The only thing that is certain at this point is that LSU is significantly better than the best B12 team and Clemson is marginally better than the best B1G team, everything else is conjecture.

 

[78Cyclones]

These two teams are 100% equal IMO, but that doesn't mean that one equal team cannot clock another equal team just like last year. Clemson has been more dominant, but LSU has played a tougher schedule. I am going with Clemson by a nose, but I am 100% rooting for the Purple and Gold Tigers!

 

[bocomo007]

First, that seems like a strange comparison. Clemson only played 3 P5 teams not in the ACC. They played Texas A&M the second week of the season before kinks were worked out without a complete playbook. Against South Carolina, they pulled the starters in the third quarter. They could have certainly scored over 38 had they left them in. And Ohio State was the #2 scoring defense in the country. LSU is the #28.

Second, that's incorrect. Wake, Charlotte, and UVA all had winning records, and Clemson scored 52, 52, and 62 against them. And again, the important stat in my mind is that Orgeron almost never pulled Burrow early (only against the three worst opponents). Clemson almost always pulled its starters early. That's going to drastically impact the stats. If you want a more interesting stat to compensate for this, in the last 7 games of the season (not counting Ohio State), Clemson outscored its opponents 35-2 at halftime. In that same time, LSU was up on their opponents 23-8. It's actually really interesting. Clemson outscored its opponents on the year by an average score of 47-11. That's with pulling their first string halfway through the third on average. LSU outscored theirs on the year 48-22 and pulled their starters 13 minutes after Clemson. If you gave Clemson's first string that time and presumed they stayed relatively consistent, Clemson would have beaten their opponents 62-7 on average.

Third, I don't know why you would be shocked if LSU was held to only 28 points. It's not like Venables has never done it before. This year, LSU has averaged 7.9 yards a play, 554 yards, and 48 points a game. That's fantastic, no doubt. However, here's some history. In 2015, Oklahoma (with Baker Mayfield) was averaging 8.1 yards a play, 531 yards, and 48 points a game. Clemson held them to 17. 2016 Ohio State averaged 6.4 yards a play, 460 yards, and 41 points a game. Clemson held them to 0. 2018 Alabama averaged 7.9 yards a play, 524 yards, and 48 points a game. Clemson held them to 16. This year, Ohio State was averaging 7.1 yards a play, 532 yards, and 49 points a game (and that's against significantly better defenses). Clemson held them to 23.

There are four games with substantially similar offenses as LSU where Venables held them to under 28 points (half that on average actually). There is a very strong argument to be made that last year's Bama offense and this year's Ohio State were both better offenses than LSU. They were certainly far more balanced. Even this year, Alabama dominated LSU after the nasty start, and that was with a team devastated by injuries

Fourth, I think it's basic math. Auburn held LSU to 23 and that was the only team to do so. But a number of other teams held them to 42 or less (Utah State, Florida, Mississippi State, and Georgia). Clemson's the #1 defense and is far better than those other teams (Georgia's the closest). They have only allowed over 14 points three times this season, and only one over 20 (and that was a better offense than LSU's). After a rough first quarter because they hadn't played anyone with the speed, size, and aggression of Ohio State, the starters held that top offense to 7 points. If LSU scores 28, they'd score more than any other team this year. On the other side of the ball, Clemson scored 45 or more points 9 times this season. If they played starters as long as LSU did, they would have scored 45 or more 11 times this season. LSU has allowed 28 or more points 6 times. Clemson has a better offense statistically than all 6 of those teams. Only Alabama has a comparable offense, and they scored 41 with an injured QB and several other key injuries. I don't think it's a stretch to say Clemson could score 45 with a fully-healthy offense.

And Bowl records are only one piece of the puzzle, which is why I averaged the average stats of all their opponents as well. I think LSU could definitely win this game. But I think Ohio State was a better team than LSU, and LSU is a step back from them due to their average defense and poor offensive balance. I'm sticking with 45-28.

you must be fucking high

you give your team a pass for an early game; convenient
you exclude your shitty playoff game against OSU; convenient
i would love to hear your very strong argument that last years bama and this years OSU offenses are better than our
you think that OSU team that just folded like a wet paper bag is better than us!?!?!?

 

[DeafOranguntan]

you must be fucking high

you give your team a pass for an early game; convenient
you exclude your shitty playoff game against OSU; convenient
i would love to hear your very strong argument that last years bama and this years OSU offenses are better than our
you think that OSU team that just folded like a wet paper bag is better than us!?!?!?

I didn't exclude the playoff game for Clemson in the important things, like scoring margin. I excluded it from stats because it wasn't worth recalculating just so you could beat your chest over beating a JV team. I also excluded it for Ohio State, because they played substantially better defenses, and it's not fair that we'd count their performance against the #1 defense vs yours against the #63 defense.

It's a very compelling argument. I know you're not going to be convinced from anything, so I'll only discuss Ohio State for others. Going into the playoffs, Ohio State had 48.7 points per game (#1), 532 ypg (#5), 9.53 yards per pass attempt (#5), and 5.67 yards per rush (#6). Their opponents had an average defensive ranking of #39 (they played 10 teams ranked in the top 50 in defense). Ohio State also played opponents with a higher winning percentage, a better bowl record, and more ranked teams than LSU. LSU had 47.7 points per game (#3), 554 ypg (#1), 10.6 yards per pass attempt (#3), and 4.84 yards per rush (#54). Their opponents had an average defensive ranking of #57 (not counting Northwestern State, an FCS team) and they played 5 teams in the top 50 defensively. So Ohio State had better stats against far, far better defenses than LSU and played their starters more than a quarter less on average. There is no evidence to support LSU being better on offense than Ohio State and a lot pointing to Ohio State being better.

And Ohio State getting 516 yards on the #1 defense (who averaged allowing 244 ypg) and holding their offense to 18 points less than their average is folding like a wet paper bag? I know you're a troll but you gotta try harder than that.

 

[romeo212000]

Lol. No way. OP picked Clemson to win.

 

[JuiceTheGator]

I haven't slighted Clemson's talent all season...that would be stupid.

Still, comparing stats from an uber-easy ACC schedule to an SEC schedule is arbitrary and pointless. If Clemson wins by 17, or even wins at all, it will mean Orgeron really fucked up a lot of shit.

If LSU has a good night or Clemson messes up a bit, there's a real possibility of an ass-kicking.

 

[Deep Creek]

Lol. No way. OP picked Clemson to win.

 

[DeafOranguntan]

Lol. No way. OP picked Clemson to win.

Hey Romeo, you're back. I was afraid that I wouldn't see you around here until next season, and it's really not the same without you. I owe you an apology. Early this season, I said that Oklahoma's defense was improved statistically from last year, but that I thought that the defense was still "porous" and kept them from being a contender. You took significant umbrage from my porous comment, and brought it up to me about 4-5 times. Well, I owe you an apology. I was obviously wrong and inappropriately maligned them when I said their defense was porous. I don't know how I could have come to that conclusion and I'm sorry.

 

[bocomo007]

Hey Romeo, you're back. I was afraid that I wouldn't see you around here until next season, and it's really not the same without you. I owe you an apology. Early this season, I said that Oklahoma's defense was improved statistically from last year, but that I thought that the defense was still "porous" and kept them from being a contender. You took significant umbrage from my porous comment, and brought it up to me about 4-5 times. Well, I owe you an apology. I was obviously wrong and inappropriately maligned them when I said their defense was porous. I don't know how I could have come to that conclusion and I'm sorry.

i guess statistical analysis ain't everything...

 

[Neilcar]

ok got it … Bet on LSU

 

[cwalke3408]

10-1 vs the SEC

 

[cwalke3408]

#1 Passing Offense vs #1 Passing Defense

Another quality CFB channel I would recommend

 

[Angry red]

Position Analysis

• Quarterbacks – This is about as close as you can get, with the two best quarterbacks in college football and the very likely #1 draft pick this year and #1 pick next year. However, the two took very different roads to get to this game. Lawrence was long considered the #1 QB in the class of 2018, and had teams banging on his door. He won the starting job shortly into his freshman year and has not looked back, starting his college career 25-0 and winning a national championship as a true freshman. Though he got off to a rocky start, he’s played better than anyone in the second half of the season. Last week, Lawrence played from behind in the fourth for the first time in his career, but showed his grit as an outstanding rushing threat alongside his passing abilities. Joe Burrow came from much more humble beginnings, a 3 star quarterback ranked as the #24 QB for the class of 2015 and the #280 prospect nationwide. He never was able to crack the rotation for Ohio State, and transferred away to LSU. He had a mediocre season in 2018, before exploding in the current offense and racing to the #1 position in completion percentage, touchdowns, and #2 in passing yards, winning the Heisman by the largest margin in recent memory, and breaking many playoff records en route to a shellacking of overmatched Oklahoma. This is an impossible matchup to predict. Edge – Draw.

• Running Backs – Clyde Edwards-Helaire has had a very respectable season, averaging 6.6 yards per carry for 1304 yards and 16 touchdowns. However, Helaire has been beat up and was not 100% for Oklahoma. His backup, Tyrion Davis-Price, is an enormous drop off in effectiveness, averaging 4.6 yards for 295 yards and 6 touchdowns. Travis Etienne, a Louisiana back that LSU let get away, has established himself as one of the most elite backs in the country. He averages 8 yards a carry for 1,536 yards and 18 touchdowns. Last week, he also showed his abilities at receiving, having 3 receptions for 98 yards and 2 touchdowns on Ohio State’s vaunted defense. He may also be angry given his family’s receiving numerous death threats over the past week from LSU fans. His backup, Lyn-J Dixon, has proven nearly as explosive, averaging 6.2 ypc for 636 yards and 6 touchdowns. Edge – Clemson.

• Wide Receivers – Clemson has long been known as wide receiver U, and this year has been no different. Their large squadron of 5 stars have established very nice seasons, despite playing fewer snaps than any other starting wide receiver group in the nation. Before the season, many wondered who would replace Hunter Renfrow. Amari Rodgers moved to the slot and has excelled, and Tee Higgins and Justyn Ross have established themselves as one of the top duos nationwide, though both were banged up in the Ohio State game. Neither is a burner but both have huge heights and hands that can catch anything, as opposing fans can see every game. Clemson has also been very happy with its two true freshman 5 Stars, Joseph Ngata and Frank Ladson. LSU’s wide receivers have exploded for an unbelievable season Ja’Marr Chase and Justin Jefferson have devastated defenses all season long with their freakish speed, combining for nearly 3,000 receiving yards and 36 touchdowns. However, they have not been Burrow’s only targets, as Terrace Marshall and Thaddeus Moss have also played extremely well. These are two of the nation’s top receiving corps, and it will be interesting to see them work against one another’s defenses. Edge – LSU.

• Offensive Line – LSU’s offensive line is one of the largest in the nation, averaging 6’4” and 321 pounds. It has been very good this season, as fans may have seen the huge time Burrow often gets to throw. However, they have shown some vulnerabilities this season, only managing to be #54 in yards per rush and #72 in sacks allowed (though some of that results from Burrow’s holding onto the ball too long). Clemson’s line is one of the few larger, averaging 4 pounds more. The senior laden line has been dominant, being #5 in sacks and #1 in rushing yards per attempt. The group was pushed to the limit against Ohio State’s defensive line, the best in the nation. However, they had a good game (especially after the first quarter), including their young left tackle Jackson Carman dominating Chase Young, holding him to 2 tackles all night. Edge – Clemson.

• Front 7 – This is a weakness in both teams’ defenses. Clemson’s defensive line was expected to take a large step back, but fans held out hope that 5 Star defensive ends Xavier Thomas and KJ Henry would retain some of the dominance Clemson enjoyed for the past 5 years. However, Clemson has struggled at pressuring quarterbacks at times, ranking #17 in sacks and #8 in yards per rush. Luckily, Clemson’s linebackers are blessed with Chad Smith, the Fiesta Bowl MVP, and Isaiah Simmons, one of the two best defensive players in the country. LSU’s defensive line has similarly struggled at getting to QBs, #27 in yards per rush and #42 in sacks. However, they have gone up against some of the most elite offensive lines in football this season. Slight Edge – Clemson.

• Defensive Backs – Coming into the season, everyone thought this would be a strength for Clemson, and it has not disappointed. The veteran secondary is #1 in passing defense and yards per pass and is #2 in turnovers gained and #10 in defensive touchdowns. LSU has a ton of talent in their secondary, including a shutdown corner in Derek Stingley Jr. They’ve also played much better in the last 4 games, including being top 15 in most statistics during that time. However, outside of Oklahoma, that did come against the #61 total offense, the #72 total offense, and the #110 total offense. LSU’s scheme also is similar to Alabama’s from a few years ago, including leaving its corners on an island, where Clemson’s wide receivers’ height advantage should prove problematic. They’ve also struggled greatly against their top 4 passing threats, who completed 69% of their passes for 351 yards (on average), 13 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions. Clemson’s top 4 passing opponents completed 54% of their passes for 153 yards, 3 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions. Edge – Clemson.

• Special Teams – LSU’s special teams have been great this year. Cade York has sunk 21 of 26 field goals, including 4 of 5 from outside the 50. Zach Von Rosenberg has punted it 40 times for 42.5 yards a punt. Clemson’s B.T. Potter has only connected on 12 of 20 field goal attempts. Will Spiers has been questionable punting most of the season. He has punted it 44 times for 42.84 yards a punt. However, this largely comes from his game against Ohio State, where he had 7 punts for 44.9 yards each. Edge – LSU

• Coaching – Since Ed Orgeron took over in 2016, he has greatly improved the LSU Tigers. In that time, he is 9-7 against top 25 opponents (including 5 wins this year). He is 3-1 in Bowls, beating Louisville, UCF, and Oklahoma. His offensive coordinator, Steve Ensminger, has a long history with the LSU tigers (including acting as their tight ends coach for their national championship attempt in 2011). He also coached at Clemson in the late 90s. However, his job got a lot easier with the hiring of 30 year old Joe Brady. Brady took what he learned under Drew Brees and Joe Lombardi and changed LSU’s offense overnight, taking the 88th most accurate QB and turning him into the most accurate. While this coaching staff has never been in an extremely important game before this one, they became battle tested this season, beating 6 teams that were ranked in the top 10 when they played them (though only 3 are still ranked there). This is Clemson’s staffs’ fifth playoff appearance in a row. In all those games, Clemson’s had the same head coach, same offensive coordinators, and same defensive coordinator. Since 2015, Clemson is 19-2 against top 25 opponents. After 2012’s embarrassment at the hands of West Virginia, Dabo Swinney went and hired Brent Venables, who is now widely considered the greatest defensive coordinator in the country. Since that game, Clemson has not looked back. They are 9-2 in the post-season, beating LSU, Notre Dame, Oklahoma twice, Alabama twice, and Ohio State three times. Their average margin of victory in those wins has been 21 points. They’ve also gone against some amazing players in that time, including: Odell Beckham Jr., Ezekiel Elliot, Joey Bosa, Baker Mayfield (and Lamar Jackson multiple times), Jonathan Allen, Minkah Fitzpatrick, Jalen Hurts, Tua, and Quinnen Williams. Edge – Clemson.

Conclusion

I always love doing these because you really learn a lot about a team by doing a breakdown like this. I was surprised by a few things when looking up these teams. I didn’t know LSU’s defense had improved this drastically in the last few games, though as pointed out, it did happen against mediocre offenses. It’s also very interesting that the stats of their opponents worked out the way they did. I was probably most surprised by how long Orgeron left the first string in this season. Their first string averaged playing nearly a quarter longer than Clemson’s. At first, you’d think that’s because they played these several very tough games. However, Orgeron only pulled his first string before the fourth quarter in 3 games (Georgia Southern, Utah State, and Arkansas). If Dabo left in the first string as long as Orgeron did (and was still passing), Trevor Lawrence would have approximately 4,553 passing yards and 47 touchdowns and Tee Higgins and Justyn Ross would have almost identical stats to Chase and Jefferson. I was finally shocked at how balanced LSU’s offense is (the most balanced of ranked teams in the nation), as I thought they were a very pass heavy team.

Ultimately, this game is easier to compare than Ohio State and Clemson, where it seemed in every stat, the two were ranked #1 and #2 and rotated which one was which. The comparison is pretty clear here. Clemson is without question the more well-rounded team. They excel in every phase of the game, which explains their beating opponents 48-10 the last 8 games of the season. LSU has a decent defense, though it is worse than at least their last 5 years’ defenses. They’ve been especially suspect against elite offenses, and Joe Burrow was outplayed this year by Sam Ehlinger, (an injured) Tua, and arguably Trask. LSU’s running game is genuinely bad, as LSU runs the ball 48% of the time yet is #54 in rushing yards per carry and #61 in total yards. With Helaire at less than 100%, the drop-off will be even more extreme. However, Joe Burrow has been phenomenal, with 3 receivers completely dominating and one of the top receiving tight ends in the nation in Moss. Clemson’s matchup is very interesting, with the #1 defense in the country and coached by the defensive quarterback best at causing issues for QBs. Last year, Tua had thrown 43 touchdowns with only 4 picks but threw 2 against Venables’ schemes. Last week, Justin Fields had thrown 40 touchdowns with only 1 pick but threw 2 picks (and 2 others that were drops).

Clemson is likely to score on LSU. Clemson’s offense is the best LSU will have faced, though they are closest to Alabama (with a healthy Tua). The question is whether LSU’s passing attack will be able to sustain success against Clemson’s defense. I think they will have some success, but that Venables will be able to use his long experience and talented defense to slow down LSU.

Clemson wins – 45-28

Too many points rationalized to arrive at the conclusion you want. One point that is undeniable, Venables will either earn his money or not, with this game.

 

[Angry red]

Clemson starts like like last week. They lose by 21. Disrespecting Dabo.

 

[Angry red]

I didn't exclude the playoff game for Clemson in the important things, like scoring margin. I excluded it from stats because it wasn't worth recalculating just so you could beat your chest over beating a JV team. I also excluded it for Ohio State, because they played substantially better defenses, and it's not fair that we'd count their performance against the #1 defense vs yours against the #63 defense.

It's a very compelling argument. I know you're not going to be convinced from anything, so I'll only discuss Ohio State for others. Going into the playoffs, Ohio State had 48.7 points per game (#1), 532 ypg (#5), 9.53 yards per pass attempt (#5), and 5.67 yards per rush (#6). Their opponents had an average defensive ranking of #39 (they played 10 teams ranked in the top 50 in defense). Ohio State also played opponents with a higher winning percentage, a better bowl record, and more ranked teams than LSU. LSU had 47.7 points per game (#3), 554 ypg (#1), 10.6 yards per pass attempt (#3), and 4.84 yards per rush (#54). Their opponents had an average defensive ranking of #57 (not counting Northwestern State, an FCS team) and they played 5 teams in the top 50 defensively. So Ohio State had better stats against far, far better defenses than LSU and played their starters more than a quarter less on average. There is no evidence to support LSU being better on offense than Ohio State and a lot pointing to Ohio State being better.

And Ohio State getting 516 yards on the #1 defense (who averaged allowing 244 ypg) and holding their offense to 18 points less than their average is folding like a wet paper bag? I know you're a troll but you gotta try harder than that.

I saw Dobbins running free. I like LSU to be able to take advantage of Clemson, compared to the field goals for the.

If it comes to officiating, SEC, SEC, SEC!

 

[Angry red]

Thanks. I'm definitely excited. Though my coworkers want to watch it with me. Not looking forward to that. I'm not a fun girl to watch Clemson with.

You should have said you were or are a woman. I was wondering why you were so wrong.

 

[B_dub]

Lol at thinking the QB battle would be a draw. Not even remotely close.

 

[romeo212000]

Nailed it!!!

 

[DeafOranguntan]

Nailed it!!!

First, I'm shocked you're back given you're being convinced of how good Oklahoma's defense was. Second, we were wrong. I wont blame the calls. There were some big blown calls but Clemsonnhas just played badly tonight.