My Thoughts on a Kirk Extension

[gkekoa]

Lets just say Kirk continues his current level of play which right now falls into the middle of the pack, yet we lose out ( which is entirely possible) and end up with a top ten pick. Are we better served as a TEAM, drafting yet ANOTHER QB, who might be cheaper, but also guarantees another 2-3 years of rebuilding. OR sticking with Kirk and using that top ten pick on say, a Pass Rusher, DB, or WR taller than your average 5th grader??

You start over rather than overpay. If KC doesn't work out and you overpaid for him...2-3 years becomes 5-6 years.

 

[Sharkinva]

Can't tell because of a possible typo but are you stating that Cousins should have been the starter at the beginning of 2013? Seriously? RG3 was just coming off a playoff run & rookie of the year honors. There were certainly some injury concerns, but it didn't appear that bad at the time. What exactly would you have proposed that they could have done at that time? Cut or trade RG3? Ridiculous.

Easy to say otherwise in hindsight, but that would have made no sense at the time.

I am 100% saying he should have been the starter coming into 2013. Griffin was also coming off his second rebuilt knee and as we all saw wasnt healthy. He wasnt capable of running the offense that MADE him rookie of the year, and didnt have the skills to be a traditional pocket passer. DO they cut or trade Griffin, no. But honestly you play the best 22 you have. And at that time Griffin was NOT among those best 22 starters. If it was about the team, Cousins would have been the starter... But as we see it wasnt about the team.

 

[Sharkinva]

You start over rather than overpay. If KC doesn't work out and you overpaid for him...2-3 years becomes 5-6 years.

Again... who is to determine what over paying is?? If the going rate for a starting QB is $17 million, and Kirk is our starter... some one is going to pay him. Do you start over because you want to quibble over the contract?? I agree if we were paying Cousins and he performed like a 3rd stringer. But I think Cousins is a bit better than that.

 

[j_y19]

You start over rather than overpay. If KC doesn't work out and you overpaid for him...2-3 years becomes 5-6 years.

So let me make sure I understand your position. You are impressed with KC and think he could be a starter for this team going forward, assuming he continues on his current trajectory (I'm paraphrasing and pulling this from numerous posts on him you have made over the last couple of days). Yet you would be willing to let him walk over $3M and replace him with a scrap pile player or untested rookie, negating any continuity that has been developed this year? How does that help the team?

 

[SoCalWizFan]

I am 100% saying he should have been the starter coming into 2013. Griffin was also coming off his second rebuilt knee and as we all saw wasnt healthy. He wasnt capable of running the offense that MADE him rookie of the year, and didnt have the skills to be a traditional pocket passer. DO they cut or trade Griffin, no. But honestly you play the best 22 you have. And at that time Griffin was NOT among those best 22 starters. If it was about the team, Cousins would have been the starter... But as we see it wasnt about the team.

Again - that is easy to say in hindsight but hardly anyone would have taken that stance at the time. At best - possibly RG3 would have sat a few games while he became healthy. This is not like now - no way RG3 contently sits for the entire season while Cousins starts after what occurred in the previous season (& in that case RG3 would have every rt to be upset). Also - very likely Cousins would have been worse at the time which would made the situation that much worse.

I am certainly pulling for Cousins now, but I believe that he has received exactly the chances that he has deserved to date (perhaps even more). Most 4th rd picks don't have this many chances. He was given most of last year and all of this season - that is more than fair.

 

[gkekoa]

So let me make sure I understand your position. You are impressed with KC and think he could be a starter for this team going forward, assuming he continues on his current trajectory (I'm paraphrasing and pulling this from numerous posts on him you have made over the last couple of days). Yet you would be willing to let him walk over $3M and replace him with a scrap pile player or untested rookie, negating any continuity that has been developed this year? How does that help the team?

Who said 3 million is the difference? The difference is based entirely in structure. I would give him 12 mil per season in salary and signing bonus. He could get more by hitting benchmarks.

Yes...if he didn't like it...he can leave. You are looking short term...I am looking long term.

 

[Sharkinva]

Again - that is easy to say in hindsight but hardly anyone would have taken that stance at the time. At best - possibly RG3 would have sat a few games while he became healthy. This is not like now - no way RG3 contently sits for the entire season while Cousins starts after what occurred in the previous season (& in that case RG3 would have every rt to be upset). Also - very likely Cousins would have been worse at the time which would made the situation that much worse.

I am certainly pulling for Cousins now, but I believe that he has received exactly the chances that he has deserved to date (perhaps even more). Most 4th rd picks don't have this many chances. He was given most of last year and all of this season - that is more than fair.

Have to disagree. We went through the entire off season and the preseason preparing as if RG3 would start, only he wasnt practicing. I think the time would have been better served working the offense to Kirks skills. Its kind of like training for a marathon by only running 100m sprints. Griffin came into game one, with very little actual practice time and no preseason play. Even if the plan was to only give Kirk the team for the first 4 games, I think that would have served the team better than the whole well Kirk is running with the ones, but we are going to scrap it all once Robert gets back. Which is basically what we ended up doing.

 

[gkekoa]

Again... who is to determine what over paying is?? If the going rate for a starting QB is $17 million, and Kirk is our starter... some one is going to pay him. Do you start over because you want to quibble over the contract?? I agree if we were paying Cousins and he performed like a 3rd stringer. But I think Cousins is a bit better than that.

That is entirely untrue. There are quite a few starters in this league being paid far less than 17 mil/season.

Of course you quibble over a contract. If you give your QB 17 mil, then you have less to get good players around him.

 

[SoCalWizFan]

Have to disagree. We went through the entire off season and the preseason preparing as if RG3 would start, only he wasnt practicing. I think the time would have been better served working the offense to Kirks skills. Its kind of like training for a marathon by only running 100m sprints. Griffin came into game one, with very little actual practice time and no preseason play. Even if the plan was to only give Kirk the team for the first 4 games, I think that would have served the team better than the whole well Kirk is running with the ones, but we are going to scrap it all once Robert gets back. Which is basically what we ended up doing.

OK - explained that way - I can agree with that. If the plan was to hand the team back to RG3 barring Cousins playing lights out all 4 games (which he almost certainly would not have at that stage of his career) that sounds about rt.

If you believe that this was an issue you can put that one squarely on Shanahan - either for making the wrong decision or being a puppet/wuss.

 

[j_y19]

Who said 3 million is the difference? The difference is based entirely in structure. I would give him 12 mil per season in salary and signing bonus. He could get more by hitting benchmarks.

Yes...if he didn't like it...he can leave. You are looking short term...I am looking long term.

You said you would go up to 12m. Shark said the salary for a starter is in the 15-17m range. I thought you balked at that. The difference between 15 and 12 is 3. Clearly, if you were going to re sign him, it's because he did enough to come back as a starter. Otherwise you wouldn't be offering him 12M. Yet you won't pay him as one. What message does that send to him and the rest of the team about taking care of your own?
How is you position long term? HoW Is going into 2016 with either a scrap pile QB or an unproven rookie the best way to develop the rest of the offense in the best interest of long term development?

 

[SoCalWizFan]

You said you would go up to 12m. Shark said the salary for a starter is in the 15-17m range. I thought you balked at that. The difference between 15 and 12 is 3. Clearly, if you were going to re sign him, it's because he did enough to come back as a starter. Otherwise you wouldn't be offering him 12M. Yet you won't pay him as one. What message does that send to him and the rest of the team about taking care of your own?
How is you position long term? HoW Is going into 2016 with either a scrap pile QB or an unproven rookie the best way to develop the rest of the offense in the best interest of long term development?

Thankfully - none of us are the GM for this team. I don't believe that it is simply a matter of the amt for each season. Contracts can be structured in any number of ways to benefit the team. SM will figure it out.

 

[j_y19]

Thankfully - none of us are the GM for this team. I don't believe that it is simply a matter of the amt for each season. Contracts can be structured in any number of ways to benefit the team. SM will figure it out.

I understand. This debate is more of a philosophical one where we are using numbers. Either you decide he is your starter next year and pay him as one, even if on the low end, or you low ball him and let him walk because you aren't sure.

 

[deanpet21]

If KC plays well and wins the division he has all the leverage in the contract negoations. How can the Skins let him walk if he does that? If he plays average and we don't win the division he still has leverage b/c the Skins have no other options. He has the Skins over a barrel right now.

 

[ATL96Steeler]

Here's what I think about Kirk and whether we should extend him based on what we know now.

I went through the QBs across the league today and looked at where Kirk sat amongst them since I hear a lot of comments about him being a middle of the pack QB. I found 18 QBs that are definitely better IMO. They are...

Rodgers, Cutler, Romo, Eli, Russell, Palmer, Brees, Cam, Ryan, Jameis, Ben, Dalton, Flacco, Carr, Rivers, Luck, Mariota, and Brady.

Then there are the QBs Kirk compares to a little more closely. Some of them are probably better than him and some are probably worse than him but like it or not the group Kirk fits into IMO is...

Tannehill, Fitzpatrick, Tyrod, Hoyer, Bortles, Smith, McCown, Teddy, and Stafford...and Kirk.

The numbers we have seen for Kirks extension have ranged anywhere from $5-17 mil a year it seems. None of those QBs deserve more than MAYBE $10 mil per right now. Thats not to say some of them cant get that on the open market but itll be an overpay.

Additionally of those 10 QBs in Kirks group, 4 (or 5 if we count Kirk who couldve been acquired for a mid round pick probably) could have been picked up off the scrap heap this past offseason. So while many of you have asked "who will we get if we dont keep Cousins?" I think you are forgetting that there are usually scrap heap options available who can do at least close to what Kirk is doing right now. Granted this year FA is especially weak at QB but that having been said - somebody who is that replaceable (yea, I know you guys dont think hes that replaceable) shouldnt be taking 12+ million dollars from us. And while Kirk could still develop its not likely he'll develop into a guy who can carry a team. I wouldnt be overly happy about paying any of the QBs in that list with Kirk much money. I would prefer to stream cheaper options if we can while we try to find somebody who can take this team to a SB.

All that said (think I covered everything I wanted to) Im not trying to convince you guys with this post because I know that won't happen but Im just laying out what I think so its all out there and explaining my POV.

3 Disclaimers
- This doesnt mean I dont think we should resign Kirk no matter what
- This doesnt mean I hate Kirk
- This doesnt mean Kirk cant change my opinion by the end of the season

Great post.

From an outsider pov...KC is probably part of a bigger question...Gruden...post #2 kinda nailed it...if Gruden is retained, Cousins is most likely going to be resigned...in terms of the contract value, this is similar to Hoyer LY...very small sample size as a starter. I think he's going to slot under the most recent $80 to $100 mil type contracts...something in the $50mil/6/$20mil range...anything more than that, and you really start to reach for midlevel talent. You still take a QB in this draft, but further down.

If Gruden is not retained. I think WAS might be in that top 15ish type position...the new HC is going to want his own QB most likely...3 QBs are surfacing with 1st rd grades and a handful of the teams likely to be picking higher are not going to pick a QB 1st rd...TN, SD, BAL, JAX, MIA could be picking higher as well.

That would be ideal for the new HC is to land one of those 3 young guys and build around him.

 

[deanpet21]

Gruden is coming back. KC has our team over a barrel. Even if he doesn't play well he is still the best FA qb out there b/c of his age. He beats the Giants on Sunday fans would be wanting to give KC the world.

 

[j_y19]

Great post.

From an outsider pov...KC is probably part of a bigger question...Gruden...post #2 kinda nailed it...if Gruden is retained, Cousins is most likely going to be resigned...in terms of the contract value, this is similar to Hoyer LY...very small sample size as a starter. I think he's going to slot under the most recent $80 to $100 mil type contracts...something in the $50mil/6/$20mil range...anything more than that, and you really start to reach for midlevel talent. You still take a QB in this draft, but further down.

If Gruden is not retained. I think WAS might be in that top 15ish type position...the new HC is going to want his own QB most likely...3 QBs are surfacing with 1st rd grades and a handful of the teams likely to be picking higher are not going to pick a QB 1st rd...TN, SD, BAL, JAX, MIA could be picking higher as well.

That would be ideal for the new HC is to land one of those 3 young guys and build around him.

No doubt KC is tied to Gruden. Reports are that Gruden is coming back. I think Gruden and our GM are generally happy with KCs performance and growth this year. All indications are they want him back. Of course there are 6 games left so anything can happen.

 

[ATL96Steeler]

No doubt KC is tied to Gruden. Reports are that Gruden is coming back. I think Gruden and our GM are generally happy with KCs performance and growth this year. All indications are they want him back. Of course there are 6 games left so anything can happen.

I'm not sure if Gruden is a HC in this league, but he deserves at least 3 seasons...if they bottom out to the degree that you can secure one of the taller ceiling rookies at QB...whatta you do?

 

[deanpet21]

It depends on how they bottomed out. A lot of what ifs. I don't think we are in the top 10 of the draft next year. The Giants game is very winnable and if we win that game the Skins will be in 1st place in the East.

 

[ehb5]

First of all - again - any of us stating that none of those guys deserve more than $10 mil is irrelevant. It doesn't matter what you, I or anyone else (outside of an NFL GM) thinks about his value. It is about supply and demand & it only takes one other team to affect the future contract. It is a given that somebody will be overpaid - it has always been that way.

As for the QBs that you put in Cousin's category - forget about last offseason - moving forward I cannot see any of them as a suitable replacement since either a. they are no better & perhaps older or b. there is no way that they will be available. The only possible exception could be Stafford but no way the Redskins sign him at his expected asking price. Cousins is also probably a desired choice since he is already in the system and used to working with everyone else.

Oh well - as you alluded to - a lot depends on what happens for the remainder of the year. A win against the Giants this week and a road victory or two will likely go a long way for Cousins & his future contract.

Disagree. Just because other people might do it doesnt mean we should. We should pay him what he is worth to us.

As for the QBs I brought up I wasnt naming them to say we should replace him with one but more to point out that hes in the group of guys that dont deserve big contracts and that you can usually find comparable guys on the cheap.

 

[ehb5]

KC has leverage over the Redskins when contract talks come. Especially if he plays well. We are not a top 10 pick ehb. cmon.

You dont think this team has any chance of going 2-4 or 1-5 the rest of the year?