More NHL to Vegas talk

[Bloody Brian Burke]

thats even more complicating when they get shot in the eyeball

Well, they shouldn't have been aiming the remote control at the neighbourhood watch guy. He's just standing his ground!

 

[detroit_schlegs]

IMO, in order to market a regular clientele to be able for a return to come close to offset the expansion fee and make a profit down the road, we would be squeezing it to think of any new city in the USA to meet those goals. This might be accomplished, though, by doubling up in one of the market cities already having an NHL franchise, either in Canada or the USA, as other professional sports have done. A profitable project might be accomplished in a European city, e.g, Scandinavia, or Russian, but the draw to get that needed revenue, where people would be willing to pay the amount necessary for a ticket on a regular basis to make it worthwhile for a financier to give it a go. The biggest issue with going in that direction, is that the players would need several days off after the series of games from that trip, in order to let their biological clocks to recover from the time changes; and, all Eastern location games would need to follow that over the pond trip. This seems like a stretch, but we seem to know the mindset of the Almighty Commissioner when $s are being thrown around; "go get anything that has a green color, and do it quickly".

 

[stealth]

Vegas, no way. They couldn't even support the ECHL Wranglers with 2000-2500 @ $22 per game. Does anyone really think 7000/8000 fans paying $60 a seat, per game, is going to happen?
Comp tickets to tourist, be real. Casinos want players in their house, not sitting in some arena for 3 hours.

Great point, this post is the whole premise on not having the NHL in Vegas!

 

[stealth]

Vegas, no way. They couldn't even support the ECHL Wranglers with 2000-2500 @ $22 per game. Does anyone really think 7000/8000 fans paying $60 a seat, per game, is going to happen?
Comp tickets to tourist, be real. Casinos want players in their house, not sitting in some arena for 3 hours.

I forgot 1 thing, Vegas could be possible only if the fans can gamble at the games. Not a bad Idea! Liquor/Hockey/gambling and gambling would mean betting on all NHL games with the league getting some of the cut. A new stream of NHL revenue with slots as well as other forms of gambling

 

[DevilishWon]

You negate your own argument with this. If it's a good market for national TV regardless of having local teams why not put the teams in markets where the national footprint is primed for growth? Also, how doesn't Seattle as a NHL market "fill a big enough gap"? The Pacific Northwest isn't a a big enough gap? There's over 12 million people in the region (without even including some spillover into British Columbia) and Washington is the 8th fastest-growing state in the country. All of this is even without mentioning once that Seattle is the 15th largest MSA in the US and is the 4th fastest growing of the top 15 after Houston, Dallas and DC. No part of your argument is logical.

Because a big part of the sell to the networks is regional advertising which is at least partially is driven by having teams in that market. That's not my doing but it is why the league is loathe to lose south florida & Arizona. I know everyone on the board thinks the folks running the league are fools or worse but they do know what the networks want. Why do you think they work so hard to keep the team in Arizona when there are markets begging for a team...because those markets are already "covered" for TV. Seattle may well get an expansion team (if someone is willing to put up a huge fee and get the taxpayers to fund an arena) but they wont get Florida or Arizona

 

[stealth]

Because a big part of the sell to the networks is regional advertising which is at least partially is driven by having teams in that market. That's not my doing but it is why the league is loathe to lose south florida & Arizona. I know everyone on the board thinks the folks running the league are fools or worse but they do know what the networks want. Why do you think they work so hard to keep the team in Arizona when there are markets begging for a team...because those markets are already "covered" for TV. Seattle may well get an expansion team (if someone is willing to put up a huge fee and get the taxpayers to fund an arena) but they wont get Florida or Arizona

true and I don't think the citizens/voting population will vote a new arena in. Basketball will have to come back as part of the deal due to the great support for the Supersonics (as Dash stated earlier). NHL hockey cant get lonewolf support in the city of Seattle.

 

[juliansteed]

Vegas, no way. They couldn't even support the ECHL Wranglers with 2000-2500 @ $22 per game. Does anyone really think 7000/8000 fans paying $60 a seat, per game, is going to happen?
Comp tickets to tourist, be real. Casinos want players in their house, not sitting in some arena for 3 hours.

Actually I think that's probably about right, but that's not nearly enough.

 

[Bloody Brian Burke]

Because a big part of the sell to the networks is regional advertising which is at least partially is driven by having teams in that market. That's not my doing but it is why the league is loathe to lose south florida & Arizona. I know everyone on the board thinks the folks running the league are fools or worse but they do know what the networks want. Why do you think they work so hard to keep the team in Arizona when there are markets begging for a team...because those markets are already "covered" for TV. Seattle may well get an expansion team (if someone is willing to put up a huge fee and get the taxpayers to fund an arena) but they wont get Florida or Arizona

Maybe i'm missing something here, but if the locals aren't watching the local team, what effect at all does that have on local broadcasts? They can still run local ads when the locals are watching out-of-market teams.

Is there one particular reason having teams in bad, terrible, no good hockey markets is beneficial for the national television rights package? NBC isn't stupid - if Bettman says "oh well we need another hundred million because we're in 10 of the 12 largest MSA's", Mr. NBC executive is going to retort "yes, but your product is about as popular in two of those MSA's as lupus".

In short, the number of South Florida hockey fans watching a national broadcast of two out-of-market teams simply because they're Panthers fans will be dwarfed by the number doing so in a market like Seattle, so I'm failing to see how having a team in a terrible hockey market benefits the national television package fees as opposed to having a team in a serviceable hockey market with a large growth potential.

 

[Bloody Brian Burke]

Hello Miami, NHL History in the Making - PensBurgh

"Back in February 2011, Miami Herald columnist Barry Jackson exposed just how poorly the Panthers were drawing on television with an average of 3,000 homes, which was worse than an infomercial."


I have no reason to believe Panthers viewership has risen much in the intervening years, and I can probably safely assume Coyotes viewership is somewhat similar. These are for Panthers games broadcast locally only (I couldn't find any by-the-market ratings for national broadcasts) but there is no fucking argument on earth that can be made to convince me it is beneficial for the NHL to have teams in these terrible markets.

 

[elocomotive]

Sunrise and Glendale are not exactly packing their respective stadiums either (the NHL is still primarily a gate driven league).

2014-2015 NHL Attendance - National Hockey League - ESPN

Florida is filling almost 2 out of 3 seats, Dash, and we all know Meatloaf says that isn't bad.

I need to research the Supersonics II

Is that anything like the Might Ducks 2?

If a half-billion dollar franchise fee is too much for the location these days, YOU'RE IN THE WRONG LOCATION!

How do you figure?

Only 12-13 NHL franchises exceed a valuation of $450 million to begin with, so you're talking about the franchise fee EXCEEDING the valuation of the average NHL franchise. That's absurd math unless you aren't understanding the difference between franchise fee and valuation.

I think 43 has a fair point about possibly trying to price them out. I guess we'll see when we hear what a different location's franchise fee is.

 

[Bloody Brian Burke]

Florida is filling almost 2 out of 3 seats, Dash, and we all know Meatloaf says that isn't bad.

They're selling 2 of 3, maybe. Most nights it looks like calling it 1/3 full is generous.

How do you figure?

Only 12-13 NHL franchises exceed a valuation of $450 million to begin with, so you're talking about the franchise fee EXCEEDING the valuation of the average NHL franchise. That's absurd math unless you aren't understanding the difference between franchise fee and valuation.

I think 43 has a fair point about possibly trying to price them out. I guess we'll see when we hear what a different location's franchise fee is.

Average value of a franchise according to Forbes is $490 million. Remove Florida and Arizona from the equation, and the average value is $510 million. Should an expansion franchise not at least be getting the existing teams a sum commensurate to the average value of a NHL franchise?

Also, the NHL would almost assuredly demand a half-billion dollar franchise fee for a second team in Toronto or a team in Quebec City.

 

[BGDave]

Average value of a franchise according to Forbes is $490 million. Remove Florida and Arizona from the equation, and the average value is $510 million. Should an expansion franchise not at least be getting the existing teams a sum commensurate to the average value of a NHL franchise?

From a seller's (the existing owners) perspective, maybe. But to a buyer, no way. In any business when you start up, you will incur costs to build, develop and maintain a market. We all can agree that someone trying to build a market for an NHL team in Las Vegas will have to sink serious $$$ into the investment.

As a buyer then, the economic formula is: Upfront fee + Cost to build a market and team <= Value of your franchise once established.

If the average NHL franchise is $510 million (accepting your elimination of outliers), logic says an investor in an NHL franchise will pay $450M ONLY if they do not anticipate spending more than $60M to build the franchise. And the investor would have to be darned confident the end result is an "average" NHL franchise.

Given the hurdles to starting up in Las Vegas, no sane investor would put down $450M on a franchise fee. Likely no more than $350M max.

Can the league get more in fees from a Quebec City team or a second T.O. team? Absolutely. And that is where the League should look to expand.

 

[Bloody Brian Burke]

From a seller's (the existing owners) perspective, maybe. But to a buyer, no way. In any business when you start up, you will incur costs to build, develop and maintain a market. We all can agree that someone trying to build a market for an NHL team in Las Vegas will have to sink serious $$$ into the investment.

As a buyer then, the economic formula is: Upfront fee + Cost to build a market and team <= Value of your franchise once established.

If the average NHL franchise is $510 million (accepting your elimination of outliers), logic says an investor in an NHL franchise will pay $450M ONLY if they do not anticipate spending more than $60M to build the franchise. And the investor would have to be darned confident the end result is an "average" NHL franchise.

Given the hurdles to starting up in Las Vegas, no sane investor would put down $450M on a franchise fee. Likely no more than $350M max.

Can the league get more in fees from a Quebec City team or a second T.O. team? Absolutely. And that is where the League should look to expand.

Exactly why I said if the potential ownership group in LV can't afford the league average team value in expansion fee, they shouldn't be expanding there.

 

[dash]

Ticket prices have been released and Bill Foley hopes to have 10,000 season ticket commitments.

http://www.lasvegas-hockey.com/Documents/Arena Diagram and Pricing.pdf

 

[DevilishWon]

Ticket prices have been released and Bill Foley hopes to have 10,000 season ticket commitments.

http://www.lasvegas-hockey.com/Documents/Arena Diagram and Pricing.pdf

With a 64 team league coming I don't see why not

 

[dash]

With a 64 team league coming I don't see why not

Sounds like March Madness, DW.

 

[Comeds]

With a 64 team league coming I don't see why not

Its kind of crazy but just might work.

2 32 team conferences
4 8 team divisions in each conference
No inter-conference play
Each team plays their own division 5 times (35 games)
Each team plays the other teams in conference twice (48 games)
One conference employs the shoot out as it is now, the other uses a designated shooter - one player who takes all three or more shots

 

[DevilishWon]

Sounds like March Madness, DW.

Don't forget I'm still angling to get an NHL team in Trenton at the arena where my late lamented Trenton Titans (ECHL) played. Beautiful arena just off the highway. Only seats about 8,500 though....

http://www.sunnationalbankcenter.com/images/organizations/U9jQs.jpg

 

[DevilishWon]

Its kind of crazy but just might work.

2 32 team conferences
4 8 team divisions in each conference
No inter-conference play
Each team plays their own division 5 times (35 games)
Each team plays the other teams in conference twice (48 games)
One conference employs the shoot out as it is now, the other uses a designated shooter - one player who takes all three or more shots

And only the top 48 teams make the playoffs

 

[sabresfaninthesouth]

Its kind of crazy but just might work.

2 32 team conferences
4 8 team divisions in each conference
No inter-conference play
Each team plays their own division 5 times (35 games)
Each team plays the other teams in conference twice (48 games)
One conference employs the shoot out as it is now, the other uses a designated shooter - one player who takes all three or more shots

Well there's your first problem.

There's no possible way to reasonably balance the conferences. Obviously they'd have to have 30 in the West and 34 in the East.