Omar 382
Well-Known Member
You think Rupp and Knapp will combine for 30 home runs this year. You've been smoking too much crank with Dondrell in that Chester trap house of yoursHuh? What's the problem. Looks good to me, moths.
You think Rupp and Knapp will combine for 30 home runs this year. You've been smoking too much crank with Dondrell in that Chester trap house of yoursHuh? What's the problem. Looks good to me, moths.
You think Rupp and Knapp will combine for 30 home runs this year. You've been smoking too much crank with Dondrell in that Chester trap house of yours
I was laughing not only at the fact that you think they will hit 30 home runs (which they 99% likely won't) but also the fact that you think that will connote success at the plate. Rupp hit 16 home runs last year with a .195 ISO, and still finished with a 99 wRC+. SLG pails in comparison to the production that OBP provides (.303 last year for Rupp), which is why I have such a problem with OPS assuming equal weight for each statistic, when the actual weight is somewhere around 1.8/1 OBP/SLGRupp hit 16 in 120 games so it's not too extreme. Knapp hit 8 homers in 100 games so he has some power.
I was laughing not only at the fact that you think they will hit 30 home runs (which they 99% likely won't) but also the fact that you think that will connote success at the plate. Rupp hit 16 home runs last year with a .195 ISO, and still finished with a 99 wRC+. SLG pails in comparison to the production that OBP provides (.303 last year for Rupp), which is why I have such a problem with OPS assuming equal weight for each statistic, when the actual weight is somewhere around 1.8/1 OBP/SLG
"I'd rather be ignorant of facts that will be more predictive of actual future events than the intuitions I so dearly cling to"I think Rupp is bound to improve. He had his best year in '16. He won't go in the other direction. Bank on it. No time to look at those stats you cited.
Winter Meetings are over. Maybe I should make a new thread to catalog my insomnia
"I'd rather be ignorant of facts that will be more predictive of actual future events than the intuitions I so dearly cling to"
Great comment! Dr jvett is right on he mark!People who have insomnia need to be more physically active during the day and stay away from caffeine loaded soda. Have you done your 30 sit ups and pushups today? Physicians don't emphasize activity because they want to prescribe drugs to maintain their revenue cycle. Dr. Jvett has spoken.
In general, no one's ever been able to accurately predict how a player will develop based on those stats.Or show me. We wouldn't have so many surprising busts if that were true. I think the BA, OBP, SLG carry more weight. imo.
lolYou're absolutely full glossy. You should give your proof that those metrics have predicted who will or won't make it in the ml. Generally, maybe they can say something about a guy's future prospects. Let's follow Rupp next year. I'll run naked in CBP outfield if doesn't hit 20+ homers.
Do you even know the steps to making optimal decisions with uncertain probabilities? Decisions Analytics Framework? Data Visualization? Domain Knowledge? Data Transformation? You may have Domain Knowledge, but that's all. In baseball, like anything in life, there's no possible way to "predict who will or won't make it in the ml." If that was possible, we could see the future, and being a General Manager would be a moot point. You have to survey the past (catchers similar to Cameron Rupp), and then transform data to see what is likely to happen. Not what will happen, what is likely to happen. Hell, Cameron Rupp could hit 74 home runs next year. It's entirely possible. But is it likely?You're absolutely full glossy. You should give your proof that those metrics have predicted who will or won't make it in the ml. Generally, maybe they can say something about a guy's future prospects. Let's follow Rupp next year. I'll run naked in CBP outfield if doesn't hit 20+ homers.
The code was so you know I'm not BS'ing you
Have you read my posts, bruh?You never bullshit.
So, in my amphetamine infused stupor, I for some reason specified that the ISO of age 20-27 players should be greater than .163. This doesn't make sense, it should be less than .163 to see who is most similar to Rupp. Doing that, there are 742 seasons from players from 1876-2016 with an ISO of .163 or worse. Of those 742 seasons, only 139 hit 20 or more home runs in their age 28 season, for a 19% rate. Here are those players to do it. Again, how many have similar career trajectories to Rupp?
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So, in my amphetamine infused stupor, I for some reason specified that the ISO of age 20-27 players should be greater than .163. This doesn't make sense, it should be less than .163 to see who is most similar to Rupp. Doing that, there are 742 seasons from players from 1876-2016 with an ISO of .163 or worse. Of those 742 seasons, only 139 hit 20 or more home runs in their age 28 season, for a 19% rate. Here are those players to do it. Again, how many have similar career trajectories to Rupp?
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View attachment 152380View attachment 152382
Wow! There is no way possible for us to know if you left anybody off the list. But it is amazing to think ofSo, in my amphetamine infused stupor, I for some reason specified that the ISO of age 20-27 players should be greater than .163. This doesn't make sense, it should be less than .163 to see who is most similar to Rupp. Doing that, there are 742 seasons from players from 1876-2016 with an ISO of .163 or worse. Of those 742 seasons, only 139 hit 20 or more home runs in their age 28 season, for a 19% rate. Here are those players to do it. Again, how many have similar career trajectories to Rupp?
View attachment 152379
View attachment 152380View attachment 152382