Michael Johnson

[tpaulus_2]

With Cincinnati's re-signing of Carlos Dunlap, it's looking increasingly likely that Michael Johnson will be a free agent this next offseason.

I know it's a long ways off, but things are dead right now till training camp, so I figured I'd strike up this discussion now, and we could re-visit it after the season to so how much, if at all, our opinions changed on the matter.

 

[tpaulus_2]

The way I look at it is we should definitely make a run at him, depending on where his price ends up.

We have young pass rushers in Zeke Ansah, Devin Taylor (both rookies), Willie Young and Ronnell Lewis. We have versatile veterans in Jason Jones and Israel Idonije. Great looking group heading into this season.

However, Idonije is 32 and here on a one year deal. I hope he kicks ass and takes names, but he's definitely short term help.

Ronnell Lewis is another big question mark. He's got potential and is a great athletic specimen, but he didn't have any role last year. I'm not really sure where he fits (MLB conversion, perhaps? Can he cover?), but I wouldn't count on him to be on the roster for sure at this point next year.

Willie Young is also on a "prove it" scholarship this year, imo. He flashed a couple of years of early potential, but fell flat last season. I expect him to return to form and continue to be a solid rotational DE. I think that's pretty well his ceiling though, which is fine, I just don't ever see him being a regular starter.


Ansah, Jones and Taylor are near roster locks going into 2014. Willie Young is likely in there, too.

Looking at that group the only lock for a starter that jumps out is Ansah. If we have the $$ and his price is reasonable, the (then) 27 year old Johnson may be just what the doctor ordered.

Of course it all depends on what he does this season, but he's coming off a pair of successfully better seasons, culminating in 11.5 sacks last year. What jumps out to me though is his size- he's 6'7" and 270 lbs, making him a seemingly perfect fit with our new direction at the position. He also has 7 batted passes in the last two years.

I think he and Ansah starting, with Taylor and Jones rotating behind them (and Willie Young perhaps, too), with Jones also rotating at DT in the Nickel and Dime looks, would be a very formidable group of DEs heading into next season.

I know, it's far away, but I'm bored...

 

[gandydancer]

I need to see what we got after this season. See how this group gels. Who knows this might look like a strength and spend money elsewhere.

 

[tpaulus_2]

You never know. Maybe Jason Jones excels in this role and we don't need Johnson?

Maybe Devin Taylor comes on late? Maybe Idonije has another solid year and we re-sign him for another tour?

We definitely have some talent at the position, that's for sure.

 

[Mebert]

I could be way off, but I think the Lions will only be ale to splurge on one big signing next offseason. With that in mind I would rather Try for Alex Mack or Sean Lee. Now if they both get extensions or franchised I would be all for Johnson to make our D-Line one of the gratest around.

 

[tpaulus_2]

Sean Lee is a beast. Concussion issues are scary for a LB though...

 

[RobBase]

I like Michael Johnson but the Lions will not sign him for the same reason Cinci was forced to let him walk; too much money tied up in the Dline.

 

[Dr. Evil-er]

Cincy is $20m under the cap with Johnson currently counting $11.175m. Even if the cap doesn't move up they will have $30m in space coming into the 2014 season, and that assumes they don't cut any dead salary weight. I don't think Johnson is going anywhere unless he stinks it up this year.

For the record, the Bengals ability to create additional cap space is staggering because they have very little dead $ on their contracts. When they cut its almost all salary so every $ of the cuts count. They have only about $29m of dead $ on their players under contract. In contrast, the Lions will enter the 2014 season with a staggering $132m in dead $ in the contracts of their players. That is exactly what happens when you restructure deal after deal after deal. Even if Johnson were to become available we can't afford that type of a hit and we can't handle another gigantic back loaded contract. I realize it may be annoying to hear me constantly dogging the Lions and their cap mgmt but this is what they created.

 

[tpaulus_2]

Cincy is $20m under the cap with Johnson currently counting $11.175m. Even if the cap doesn't move up they will have $30m in space coming into the 2014 season, and that assumes they don't cut any dead salary weight. I don't think Johnson is going anywhere unless he stinks it up this year.

They have a huge contract to give out to Geno Atkins next offseason, plus deals to Andy Dalton and A.J. Green in short order after that. So in the long run they might not want to give Johnson market value with all of the other $$ they'll have tied up...

 

[Mebert]

Dr. Evil-er is right, the Lions should go back in time and not be so terrible when rookie contracts got out of hand.

 

[RobBase]

...staggering $132m in dead $ in the contracts of their players. I realize it may be annoying to hear me constantly dogging the Lions and their cap mgmt but this is what they created.

Is there a link proving they will have 132 million in "dead money"? That seems wrong but I don't know enough about stars to dispute it.

And two, what are you ultimately predicting and when should the rest of us start watching for the sky to fall?

 

[Mebert]

You do realize that dead money can only happen when you cut or release someone right? So it is absolutely impossible Suh CJ or Stafford to have any dead money whatsoever for the Lions.

Lions actually have $7,576,682 in dead money ,$5,723,750 is from Vanden Bosch, 900 k from Titus Young.

The Highest amount of dead money is actually from the Colts at 38 Million (16 Million for Manning)

 

[Mebert]

I appologize, the 38 million for the Colts was last year, they are at 8 now.

FYI:
Bears - 3.3 Million
Vikings - 2.1 Million
Packers - 1.7 Million

So Lions do have the most dead money in the NFC North

 

[Mebert]

I am going full on tpaulus with my 3rd response with no reply, but I figured I would post where I found the information.

» Over the Cap- Detroit Lions 2013 Salary Cap Page

Dead money is listed at the bottom of the page. The dead money column on the top half is what the dead money would be if the Lions cut said player.

 

[gandydancer]

So as the Lions stand right now. How many years will it take to get cap $$ number down? Will it take until after all these extensions play out? like say 2018???

 

[Mebert]

in 2016 they have 15 players undercontract and 86 million spent. So not good for a while.

 

[Dr. Evil-er]

I'm going to simply reply to the most recent comments and then not discuss salary cap until next offseason.

They have a huge contract to give out to Geno Atkins next offseason, plus deals
to Andy Dalton and A.J. Green in short order after that. So in the long run they
might not want to give Johnson market value with all of the other $$ they'll
have tied up...

Green and Dalton are after next season and the huge cap hit Johnson carries this year folds back into their cap space entering 2014. If the Bengals want to keep him they have a shit ton of cap space to do that.

Is there a link proving they will have 132 million in "dead money"? That seems
wrong but I don't know enough about stars to dispute it.

spotrac.com select NFL>>>Detroit>>>2013 Cap hits>>>Select the drop down box for the year and look at 2014. The Lions carry the most dead $ in active contracts of any team in the league.

And two, what are you ultimately predicting and when should the rest of us start
watching for the sky to fall?

The approach the Lions have taken in contract structuring will allow them to be players in the free agent market every other year is what I believe it boils down to unless the cap goes up considerably. That may not prove to hurt us if there arent any quality, impactful FA's available, but I think most of us thought there were impact players available after the 2011 season and we werent a player that year. Not because we didnt want to but because we simply couldnt. The sky will fall soon after the Lions win a road game at Lambeau Field.

You do realize that dead money can only happen when you cut or release someone
right? So it is absolutely impossible Suh CJ or Stafford to have any dead money
whatsoever for the Lions.

Lions actually have $7,576,682 in dead
money ,$5,723,750 is from Vanden Bosch, 900 k from Titus Young.


The Highest amount of dead money is actually from the Colts at 38 Million
(16 Million for Manning)

Before you get condescending and be a smart ass about what you think I realize and dont realize read the post correctly. Did you really think I was implying that we had more dead money applied against our cap than what the actual cap amount is?? ($132m vs $123m) I am quite well aware dead money in a contract doesnt come into play unless that player is cut or traded and that with each year the player completes of their contract their dead money portion decreases. Unless of course you keep shoving it back by restructuring contracts, which is exactly what the Lions have been doing. That's why we are carrying more than a $5.7m hit from cutting KVB. You made my point for me by posting that yourself. That's the risk the Lions carry by doing this, and its a big risk.

 

[Mebert]

Before you get condescending and be a smart ass about what you think I realize and dont realize read the post correctly. Did you really think I was implying that we had more dead money applied against our cap than what the actual cap amount is?? ($132m vs $123m) I am quite well aware dead money in a contract doesnt come into play unless that player is cut or traded and that with each year the player completes of their contract their dead money portion decreases. Unless of course you keep shoving it back by restructuring contracts, which is exactly what the Lions have been doing. That's why we are carrying more than a $5.7m hit from cutting KVB. You made my point for me by posting that yourself. That's the risk the Lions carry by doing this, and its a big risk.

So are you calling guaranteed money dead money because you think it makes your point for you? I agree that the restructure of Vanden Bosch was bad, but do you really see the Lions cutting Stafford, CJ, or Suh? They are fixtures on the team and won't be going anywhere, so moving the base Salary to a bonus does not make a difference at all.

 

[Dr. Evil-er]

but do you really see the Lions cutting Stafford, CJ, or Suh?

At this time of course not. But how many players in this league have you watched their level of play fall off over time or just suddenly become completely non-impactful? The dead money on those deals can force teams to keep those players vs trying to upgrade because after they take the cap hit if they release or even trade that player they are cap constrained to try and spend enough to improve the team.

They are fixtures on the team and won't be going anywhere, so moving the base Salary to a bonus does not make a difference at all.

Are you kidding me? It makes every difference and you just said it with KVB. Had the Lions not restructured his deal (twice) we would not be carry a $5.7m dead money hit. Forget the guaranteed $ for a minute and focus on all the bonus money we have pushed back from the restructured deals.

Suh counts $10m against the cap the next three years even if he didnt have a contract. Obviously the Lions want to keep him and rework his deal. Whatever that deal may be, lets just make it real simple and say its a 5yr, $70m deal with a $15m signing bonus. That is a very reasonable deal and might be even on the low end.

The signing bonus will count $3m and then his salary needs to be added in. Since there has to be $55m in salary or bonuses in that contract over the next five years you cant very well just put in a $1m salary and think thats ok since then you have to put in $54m over the next four years otherwise. But that is exactly what the Lions have done. That's why the contracts of Jones, Bush, and Quin will go up $7.4m next year. That is how we were able to sign them. Which pushes back the cap hits into much larger amounts in the later years of those contracts. The exact same time as when those players, just like KVB, may start to really fall off in value. You also have the risk of injury. But to unload them is simply to costly.

That is the point I have consistently tried to make regarding the Lions approach to the cap. You simply can not just keep doing that without eventual consequences. That is why we lead the league in dead $ on our current contracts, because the Lions have been doing that for years now. Stafford and Suh are currently carrying 15% of the entire salary cap amount in dead money at more than $18m. That isnt their cap hits, thats $18m in unammortized money created by pushing back $ by restructuring deals. If the Lions hadnt done that Suh would currently be carrying only an ammortized cap hit amount of $3.5m. Instead he carries almost $10m and Stafford's deal would be very similar. Each would be carrying some from the bonuses they got upon the signing of their original contracts but it wouldnt even be in the vacinity of the $18m they have now. It would have been about $8m. I would like to have that $10m still available in our cap space. If you wouldnt thats fine, your opinion is as valid as mine. The only opinion you should disregard on here is TP's, because he is an idiot

 

[gandydancer]

Lions cutting Stafford, CJ, or Suh? They are fixtures on the team and won't be going anywhere, so moving the base Salary to a bonus does not make a difference at all.

Actually it does make a difference, correct? I thought bonus money was spread out over a certain time period??? not sure of time frame. So the Lions are still taking big cap hits for the next 5 years from Suh Matty and CJ.

You stated that in 2016 they have $86 million tied up with only 15 contracts. So with my math, they can spend about $32 or $33 mill on 38 players leaving room for PS and 90 roster spots going in to preseason...

Scary part about this is in 2016 we may have young kids ready for big deals.(Ansah, Worford etc...)