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1
Luke Joeckel
Kansas City Chiefs (2-14)
COLLEGE: Texas A&M
AGE: 21
HT: 6-6
WT: 306
POS: OT
Analysis: Placing the franchise tag on Branden Albert left the Chiefs with three options that factor into this pick. They could play Joeckel at right tackle in 2013 with the goal of moving him to the left side next year; they could start Joeckel on the left side immediately to reduce the adjustment pains he could experience in shifting next year and have Albert hold down right tackle; or they could continue to entertain trade offers for Albert and try to recoup some value they traded away in the deal for Alex Smith. In any event, given the way the board sets up, my belief is they'll take the top tackle in the draft because it fills a current hole for 2013, and could fill a significant roster void in 2014. Given that their second-biggest need is an interior linebacker, they'll go with a tackle here and deal with that later.
PLAYER CARD
2
Ezekiel Ansah
Jacksonville Jaguars (2-14)
COLLEGE: BYU
AGE: 23
HT: 6-5
WT: 271
POS: DE
Analysis: The Jaguars have been saddled with a deficient pass rush for years now, and I think they will take advantage of the opportunity to take a high-ceiling 4-3 defensive end who, yes, needs some development, but should still give them impact in 2013. Cornerback is another need, and the question at quarterback persists, but the Jags can't afford to draft a quarterback at this draft slot who might be behind Blaine Gabbert on the developmental curve. They need a player that can fill an immediate void.
PLAYER CARD
3
Sharrif Floyd *
Oakland Raiders (4-12)
COLLEGE: Florida
AGE: 20
HT: 6-3
WT: 297
POS: DT
Pick analysis: The Raiders are in desperate need of young talent on the defensive line after a season in which they were far too often gashed by the run. Floyd is a dynamic young player, has played inside and on the edge and uses great leverage and power to drive blockers back and blow up plays. Given that it's not set exactly which base defense the Raiders will operate out of primarily in 2013, adding versatile defensive line talent also adds scheme flexibility. Floyd is young, and while very good already, provides a high-ceiling building block for a team in need of those types of players.
PLAYER CARD
4
Geno Smith
Philadelphia Eagles (4-12)
COLLEGE: West Virginia
AGE: 22
HT: 6-2
WT: 218
POS: QB
Analysis: There are two realities the Eagles must face in evaluating their future at quarterback. One is that Michael Vick, while an intriguing fit under Chip Kelly, isn't a long-term solution, even if we're optimistic. Two, there's no such thing as a useful free-agent market of starting quarterbacks in this league. If you have a great quarterback, or even a pretty good one, you're going to lock him up. In drafting Smith, the Eagles are in a good position to develop an athletic, talented thrower to succeed specifically in Kelly's offense, but without the requirement that he must start from day one. I don't like the idea of Smith as a Week 1 starter in 2013 -- but for a roster that's already in a good position to compete this season, he could be a great fit for the franchise in 2014, and most importantly, a great fit for the coach.
PLAYER CARD
5
Dee Milliner *
Detroit Lions (4-12)
COLLEGE: Alabama
AGE: 21
HT: 6-0
WT: 201
POS: CB
Analysis: The Lions can plug a leaky pass defense in two ways. They could target a needed pass-rusher here, or they could go after the best cornerback in the draft if he's available. If Ansah is off the board, Detroit can sprint to the podium with the assurance that it has upgraded at cornerback, which is the second-biggest need for this team. Milliner is ready to start and succeed early, and defensive line depth in this draft should have the Lions confident they can add pass-rushing value in Round 2.
PLAYER CARD
6
Dion Jordan
Cleveland Browns (5-11)
COLLEGE: Oregon
AGE: 23
HT: 6-6
WT: 248
POS: OLB
Analysis: Really like this fit. I've noted before that the Browns had one of the worst pass rushes in the league last year. Jordan is a long, explosive pass-rusher with freakish athleticism and an ability to operate effectively in space. This is a guy you want to unleash in a 3-4. I think between getting him on the field and Jabaal Sheard making strides, the Browns can take a big step forward up front.
PLAYER CARD
7
Eric Fisher
Arizona Cardinals (5-11)
COLLEGE: Central Michigan
AGE: 22
HT: 6-7
WT: 306
POS: OT
Analysis: It's true the Cardinals saw their offensive line improve over the second half of 2012. But they also just acquired Carson Palmer, who has all the maneuverability of a Brink's truck. They need to be able to form a pocket on a consistent basis in 2013, and that means even if Fisher is off the board here, they could still look to a tackle such as Lane Johnson. They also have a need at guard, so the presence of Fisher could allow them to move someone inside. Yes, they have other needs, but keeping Palmer upright should be the top priority.
PLAYER CARD
8
Jonathan Cooper
Buffalo Bills (6-10)
COLLEGE: North Carolina
AGE: 23
HT: 6-2
WT: 311
POS: G
Analysis: The Bills actually have a good foundation on the offensive line. They should feel pretty good about four of their five starters up front. Unfortunately, they lost left guard Andy Levitre to the Titans in free agency, which could really hurt, particularly for a run game that should be strong. Cooper is a great guard, a player capable of challenging for a trip to Hawaii as a rookie. Given the situation at QB, the Bills should take advantage of the opportunity to fill the biggest void they have up front.
PLAYER CARD
9
Barkevious Mingo *
New York Jets (6-10)
COLLEGE: LSU
AGE: 22
HT: 6-4
WT: 242
POS: OLB
Analysis: This is a pick I'm sticking with, because I really like the fit. The Jets need an athletic difference-maker on the edge for Rex Ryan. I've said before the interior of the defensive line should be a strength with Muhammad Wilkerson and Quinton Coples, but the Jets need edge speed. Mingo is a freak athlete and could become a star under Ryan's tutelage.
PLAYER CARD
10
Chance Warmack *
Tennessee Titans (6-10)
COLLEGE: Alabama
AGE: 21
HT: 6-2
WT: 314
POS: G
Analysis: Adding Warmack simply provides an immediate upgrade on the interior of your offensive line. One of the more dominating run blockers to enter the draft in years, Warmack is what I'd call a "no excuses" addition to your team. If your running back isn't better running behind Warmack, it might be time for a new back. The Titans were much better in pass-blocking than run-blocking last year. Given the situation at QB, the run game needs to become more reliable. Warmack makes a difference.
PLAYER CARD
11
Lane Johnson
San Diego Chargers (7-9)
COLLEGE: Oklahoma
AGE: 22
HT: 6-6
WT: 303
POS: OT
Analysis: There's nothing more important for the Chargers than finding their future at left tackle. A good player who is only going to get better, Johnson can become the successor to Jared Gaither. Injuries along the offensive line have really diminished the offense over the past couple of seasons, and Philip Rivers has taken a step back because of it. Johnson, a former junior college quarterback, is a pretty gifted athlete for his size, and has been a star during the evaluation process.
PLAYER CARD
12
D.J. Fluker
Miami Dolphins (7-9)
COLLEGE: Alabama
AGE: 21
HT: 6-5
WT: 339
POS: OT
Analysis: The Dolphins will shift second-year man Jonathan Martin to left tackle in the absence of Jake Long, but it leaves a pretty big talent deficiency at right tackle, and in Fluker they get a player who is ready to step in immediately. The Dolphins have made personnel upgrades in their passing game, but they don't want the problem to become protection or an inability to run the ball and create short-yardage situations where they can open up the playbook. They do need another pass-rusher, but Fluker makes sense.
PLAYER CARD
13
Star Lotulelei
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-9)
COLLEGE: Utah
AGE: 23
HT: 6-2
WT: 311
POS: DT
Analysis: This isn't the top need for the Bucs, but now that Lotulelei has been cleared medically, he becomes a steal at this spot on the board. Cornerback is a need, but the drop off from Milliner to the best available option is enough where the Bucs miss out on some board value if they take one here. You simply can't have enough depth on the defensive line, and Lotulelei is one of those rare defensive tackles with the potential to become dominant.
PLAYER CARD
14
Sheldon Richardson *
Carolina Panthers (7-9)
COLLEGE: Missouri
AGE: 24
HT: 6-2
WT: 294
POS: DT
Luke Joeckel
Kansas City Chiefs (2-14)
COLLEGE: Texas A&M
AGE: 21
HT: 6-6
WT: 306
POS: OT
Analysis: Placing the franchise tag on Branden Albert left the Chiefs with three options that factor into this pick. They could play Joeckel at right tackle in 2013 with the goal of moving him to the left side next year; they could start Joeckel on the left side immediately to reduce the adjustment pains he could experience in shifting next year and have Albert hold down right tackle; or they could continue to entertain trade offers for Albert and try to recoup some value they traded away in the deal for Alex Smith. In any event, given the way the board sets up, my belief is they'll take the top tackle in the draft because it fills a current hole for 2013, and could fill a significant roster void in 2014. Given that their second-biggest need is an interior linebacker, they'll go with a tackle here and deal with that later.
PLAYER CARD
2
Ezekiel Ansah
Jacksonville Jaguars (2-14)
COLLEGE: BYU
AGE: 23
HT: 6-5
WT: 271
POS: DE
Analysis: The Jaguars have been saddled with a deficient pass rush for years now, and I think they will take advantage of the opportunity to take a high-ceiling 4-3 defensive end who, yes, needs some development, but should still give them impact in 2013. Cornerback is another need, and the question at quarterback persists, but the Jags can't afford to draft a quarterback at this draft slot who might be behind Blaine Gabbert on the developmental curve. They need a player that can fill an immediate void.
PLAYER CARD
3
Sharrif Floyd *
Oakland Raiders (4-12)
COLLEGE: Florida
AGE: 20
HT: 6-3
WT: 297
POS: DT
Pick analysis: The Raiders are in desperate need of young talent on the defensive line after a season in which they were far too often gashed by the run. Floyd is a dynamic young player, has played inside and on the edge and uses great leverage and power to drive blockers back and blow up plays. Given that it's not set exactly which base defense the Raiders will operate out of primarily in 2013, adding versatile defensive line talent also adds scheme flexibility. Floyd is young, and while very good already, provides a high-ceiling building block for a team in need of those types of players.
PLAYER CARD
4
Geno Smith
Philadelphia Eagles (4-12)
COLLEGE: West Virginia
AGE: 22
HT: 6-2
WT: 218
POS: QB
Analysis: There are two realities the Eagles must face in evaluating their future at quarterback. One is that Michael Vick, while an intriguing fit under Chip Kelly, isn't a long-term solution, even if we're optimistic. Two, there's no such thing as a useful free-agent market of starting quarterbacks in this league. If you have a great quarterback, or even a pretty good one, you're going to lock him up. In drafting Smith, the Eagles are in a good position to develop an athletic, talented thrower to succeed specifically in Kelly's offense, but without the requirement that he must start from day one. I don't like the idea of Smith as a Week 1 starter in 2013 -- but for a roster that's already in a good position to compete this season, he could be a great fit for the franchise in 2014, and most importantly, a great fit for the coach.
PLAYER CARD
5
Dee Milliner *
Detroit Lions (4-12)
COLLEGE: Alabama
AGE: 21
HT: 6-0
WT: 201
POS: CB
Analysis: The Lions can plug a leaky pass defense in two ways. They could target a needed pass-rusher here, or they could go after the best cornerback in the draft if he's available. If Ansah is off the board, Detroit can sprint to the podium with the assurance that it has upgraded at cornerback, which is the second-biggest need for this team. Milliner is ready to start and succeed early, and defensive line depth in this draft should have the Lions confident they can add pass-rushing value in Round 2.
PLAYER CARD
6
Dion Jordan
Cleveland Browns (5-11)
COLLEGE: Oregon
AGE: 23
HT: 6-6
WT: 248
POS: OLB
Analysis: Really like this fit. I've noted before that the Browns had one of the worst pass rushes in the league last year. Jordan is a long, explosive pass-rusher with freakish athleticism and an ability to operate effectively in space. This is a guy you want to unleash in a 3-4. I think between getting him on the field and Jabaal Sheard making strides, the Browns can take a big step forward up front.
PLAYER CARD
7
Eric Fisher
Arizona Cardinals (5-11)
COLLEGE: Central Michigan
AGE: 22
HT: 6-7
WT: 306
POS: OT
Analysis: It's true the Cardinals saw their offensive line improve over the second half of 2012. But they also just acquired Carson Palmer, who has all the maneuverability of a Brink's truck. They need to be able to form a pocket on a consistent basis in 2013, and that means even if Fisher is off the board here, they could still look to a tackle such as Lane Johnson. They also have a need at guard, so the presence of Fisher could allow them to move someone inside. Yes, they have other needs, but keeping Palmer upright should be the top priority.
PLAYER CARD
8
Jonathan Cooper
Buffalo Bills (6-10)
COLLEGE: North Carolina
AGE: 23
HT: 6-2
WT: 311
POS: G
Analysis: The Bills actually have a good foundation on the offensive line. They should feel pretty good about four of their five starters up front. Unfortunately, they lost left guard Andy Levitre to the Titans in free agency, which could really hurt, particularly for a run game that should be strong. Cooper is a great guard, a player capable of challenging for a trip to Hawaii as a rookie. Given the situation at QB, the Bills should take advantage of the opportunity to fill the biggest void they have up front.
PLAYER CARD
9
Barkevious Mingo *
New York Jets (6-10)
COLLEGE: LSU
AGE: 22
HT: 6-4
WT: 242
POS: OLB
Analysis: This is a pick I'm sticking with, because I really like the fit. The Jets need an athletic difference-maker on the edge for Rex Ryan. I've said before the interior of the defensive line should be a strength with Muhammad Wilkerson and Quinton Coples, but the Jets need edge speed. Mingo is a freak athlete and could become a star under Ryan's tutelage.
PLAYER CARD
10
Chance Warmack *
Tennessee Titans (6-10)
COLLEGE: Alabama
AGE: 21
HT: 6-2
WT: 314
POS: G
Analysis: Adding Warmack simply provides an immediate upgrade on the interior of your offensive line. One of the more dominating run blockers to enter the draft in years, Warmack is what I'd call a "no excuses" addition to your team. If your running back isn't better running behind Warmack, it might be time for a new back. The Titans were much better in pass-blocking than run-blocking last year. Given the situation at QB, the run game needs to become more reliable. Warmack makes a difference.
PLAYER CARD
11
Lane Johnson
San Diego Chargers (7-9)
COLLEGE: Oklahoma
AGE: 22
HT: 6-6
WT: 303
POS: OT
Analysis: There's nothing more important for the Chargers than finding their future at left tackle. A good player who is only going to get better, Johnson can become the successor to Jared Gaither. Injuries along the offensive line have really diminished the offense over the past couple of seasons, and Philip Rivers has taken a step back because of it. Johnson, a former junior college quarterback, is a pretty gifted athlete for his size, and has been a star during the evaluation process.
PLAYER CARD
12
D.J. Fluker
Miami Dolphins (7-9)
COLLEGE: Alabama
AGE: 21
HT: 6-5
WT: 339
POS: OT
Analysis: The Dolphins will shift second-year man Jonathan Martin to left tackle in the absence of Jake Long, but it leaves a pretty big talent deficiency at right tackle, and in Fluker they get a player who is ready to step in immediately. The Dolphins have made personnel upgrades in their passing game, but they don't want the problem to become protection or an inability to run the ball and create short-yardage situations where they can open up the playbook. They do need another pass-rusher, but Fluker makes sense.
PLAYER CARD
13
Star Lotulelei
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-9)
COLLEGE: Utah
AGE: 23
HT: 6-2
WT: 311
POS: DT
Analysis: This isn't the top need for the Bucs, but now that Lotulelei has been cleared medically, he becomes a steal at this spot on the board. Cornerback is a need, but the drop off from Milliner to the best available option is enough where the Bucs miss out on some board value if they take one here. You simply can't have enough depth on the defensive line, and Lotulelei is one of those rare defensive tackles with the potential to become dominant.
PLAYER CARD
14
Sheldon Richardson *
Carolina Panthers (7-9)
COLLEGE: Missouri
AGE: 24
HT: 6-2
WT: 294
POS: DT