Luck's completion percentage over the last 5 games

[ChrisPozz]

Yikes.

Andy Fenelon: I find this mind-blowing: Andrew Luck has not completed +50% of passes in last 5 games, longest streak for @nfl starter in last 10 yrs

 

[spacedoodoopistol]

Listening to Aaron Schatz from Football Outsiders on a podcast right now, he says that by their DVOA ratings, this year's Colts were:

- the worst 11-5 team ever......and would even have been the worst 10-6 team ever as well

- the 4th worst playoff team ever

- had the easiest schedule in the league

- had the 2nd worst defense behind the Saints, who set the record for yards allowed

More luck than Luck.

 

[MHSL82]

Listening to Aaron Schatz from Football Outsiders on a podcast right now, he says that by their DVOA ratings, this year's Colts were:

- the worst 11-5 team ever......and would even have been the worst 10-6 team ever as well

- the 4th worst playoff team ever

- had the easiest schedule in the league

- had the 2nd worst defense behind the Saints, who set the record for yards allowed

More luck than Luck.

So it's settled, then. RGIII, Wilson, and then Luck for ROY. JK, I don't know how it'll go, but I feel people will vote for Luck regardless. I mean, look at 2-14! I'd be ok with any outcome, RGIII, Luck, and then Wilson. ??

Don't mean to take anything away from Luck, and if you (not you specifically, the royal you) feel he was better this year, then fine - I just didn't/don't like if people vote for the future reasons or past hype or just making the playoffs. Yes, the Redskins traded up, but they didn't have that great of a record the previous year, either. I suppose the supporting cast was worse for Luck? Manning would have had the 2-14 team much higher than 2 wins (8 to 11?). But how would an average QB do compared to 2-14? 5-6? 4-5? I guess I just saw Manning's replacements as below average and I think they wanted the high pick after they realized they aren't winning anything.

 

[spacedoodoopistol]

I guess I just saw Manning's replacements as below average and I think they wanted the high pick after they realized they aren't winning anything.

Yeah, I think its fair to say they tanked to go for that #1 pick. Probably could have done better than Orlovsky and Painter at the position last year with a bit of effort.

As far as who should get the award, or who was best, I agree with you.......and its just so hard to isolate individual performances on any team. You (again, royal) hear people saying "well Luck is playing with no-names and street free agents", but that doesn't mean they're worse, just means they were lesser-known guys. Maybe their GM did an awesome job of scouting these guys and bringing them in. And its not like Griffin and Wilson are playing with a bunch of great skill players on offense anyway.

But in the end, Colts record improved the most of all the teams, and most people won't study it too hard and will just give the QB all the credit as usual, so he will probably be the favorite for the ROY.

 

[USCDoom]

Listening to Aaron Schatz from Football Outsiders on a podcast right now, he says that by their DVOA ratings, this year's Colts were:

- the worst 11-5 team ever......and would even have been the worst 10-6 team ever as well

- the 4th worst playoff team ever

- had the easiest schedule in the league

- had the 2nd worst defense behind the Saints, who set the record for yards allowed

More luck than Luck.

Pretty Sure the Bucs had the 2nd worst Defense behind the Saints. Now I dont know how they rank them, I am thinking the fact the Bucs were #1 vs the Run raised them up in their rankings...

BTW - Does anyone know if any team has ever finished last then first in Run Defense?

 

[tallglassofwater007]

I think that Wilson should get it. I feel he outplayed both of the other guys. Luck had so much hype coming into the season and then RG3 has the never ending hype so Wilson gets lost in the shuffle. But I think he should get it over both of the other guys.

In response to the ROTY talk.

 

[MHSL82]

I think that Wilson should get it. I feel he outplayed both of the other guys. Luck had so much hype coming into the season and then RG3 has the never ending hype so Wilson gets lost in the shuffle. But I think he should get it over both of the other guys.

In response to the ROTY talk.

A much closer look at Russell Wilson, RG III - NFC West Blog - ESPN

This seems to support Wilson, at least as far as trend and games that matter. RGIII has higher numbers than Wilson verall, but since Week 8, Wilson has the higher numbers. If the last eight games are more important, given pressure to win, than Wilson's outproducing RGII handedly and consistently suggests he's more valuable down the stretch. Not saying RGIII was carried or that Wilson was not, or that RGIII was not impressive or starts of seasons aren't relavent, just stating the positives of Wilson's late play - consistent and at a high level overall.

 

[LeaderOCola]

Pretty Sure the Bucs had the 2nd worst Defense behind the Saints. Now I dont know how they rank them, I am thinking the fact the Bucs were #1 vs the Run raised them up in their rankings...

BTW - Does anyone know if any team has ever finished last then first in Run Defense?

wrong


FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | 2012 DEFENSIVE EFFICIENCY RATINGS

 

[LeaderOCola]

A much closer look at Russell Wilson, RG III - NFC West Blog - ESPN

This seems to support Wilson, at least as far as trend and games that matter. RGIII has higher numbers than Wilson verall, but since Week 8, Wilson has the higher numbers. If the last eight games are more important, given pressure to win, than Wilson's outproducing RGII handedly and consistently suggests he's more valuable down the stretch. Not saying RGIII was carried or that Wilson was not, or that RGIII was not impressive or starts of seasons aren't relavent, just stating the positives of Wilson's late play - consistent and at a high level overall.

FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | QUARTERBACKS 2012

 

[numone9er]

The RGIII people are forgetting Kirk Cousins helped him out by getting some wins while he was hurt. Wilson had a much better team. He had a great second half of the season as well. It's a very difficult choice right now. I still think Matt Kalil is being over looked, but I think all Luck, RGIII, and Wilson all have bright futures. They all had very good seasons.

 

[TobyTyler]

Yikes.

Andy Fenelon: I find this mind-blowing: Andrew Luck has not completed +50% of passes in last 5 games, longest streak for @nfl starter in last 10 yrs

Goes to show you how worthless completion percentage is as a statistic. Luck makes some big throws and he gets the job done without any type of running game. Give Luck the running game that Griffin has and he'd be even better. I'll take him over Griffin.

 

[USCDoom]

wrong


FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | 2012 DEFENSIVE EFFICIENCY RATINGS

You are the biggest idiot around... Just Dumb...

 

[bdave]

Stats don't always make up if a Quarterback is good or not (example Alex Smith)

In Andrew Luck's case you got to throw away the stats. He got drafted to a team that was supposed to be rebooting their franchise. They are now a playoff team, it wasn't their defense that got them there. It wasn't just the coaching either, it was Andrew Luck because the guy carried his team in the most critical moments and won games. You can argue it is the most easiest schedule in the league but they still had to play the Texans twice. Even though the Texans are beat up, I still believe the Colts made a statement in beating them.

They deserve to be in the playoffs with the kind of season they had. Andrew Luck reminds me of Brett Favre, he doesn't have the prettiest numbers but when he's in do or die mode, he does it.

 

[Kinzu]

RGIII is the rookie of the year, but I expect Luck to win it. The Colts were horrible last year and yet now they are in the playoffs. That will make an impact on how voters pick the winner.

 

[LeaderOCola]

You are the biggest idiot around... Just Dumb...

a truly insightful and compelling rebuttal.

go burst another eardrum.