Let a ball fall foul on purpose?

[williewilliejuan]

You're wasting an Sergio lot of time instead of debating the topic. Can you focus?

I'll restate it again:

On one hand, you let the other team tie the game and give them one less out to potentially work a big inning.

On the other hand, you keep the lead (not a trivial thing at all), but you give the other team an other out to work with, BUT the batter has two strikes.


Can you debate the topic, or do you have to attack the messenger, appeal to authority, use false dichotomies, and other logical fallacies?

I've tried debating the topic, but you don't actually seem interested in anything other than hearing yourself talk.

 

[ElTexan]

I've tried debating the topic, but you don't actually seem interested in anything other than hearing yourself talk.

So no ? You won't reply to the topic at hand. Got it.

 

[uncfan103]

My baseball statistics class would've taught me this...

There is a chart (that I don't still have, I'd have to look it up). You'd have to look at

1. 1 + Expected number of runs with two outs and a runner on (1st - assuming guy couldn't tag from first or 2nd).

2. Expected number of runs with 1 out and runners on the corner.

You'd could go about it another way and use the statistics to calculate the probably based on runs and batting average, obp, etc. that the next batter gets on base. But, I don't feel like thinking that far back and getting into school thoughts.

I think the only time you absolutely must let the ball drop is in the bottom inning of a tie game in the 9th inning or later. But, statistically speaking, there may be other times when you would let it drop. And, I think whatever has better odds of giving up fewer runs is what would be the best option.

It's too black and white to just pick a side and an inning. If Pete Kozma is up and Jaime Garcia is on deck I can't imagine there being any inning where it would make sense to catch the ball.

 

[ElTexan]

For everyone else, I'm keeping my lead with an ace on the mound, one out, two strikes, in the ninth.

Most likely in the eighth too.

In the seventh, I probably lean more toward taking the out.

 

[williewilliejuan]

So no ? You won't reply to the topic at hand. Got it.

I have replied to the topic at hand, repeatedly. If you can't accept that, I can't help you. Sorry you can't handle people disagreeing with you maturely.

 

[uncfan103]

Okay, so I found a run expectancy chart...

A) 1 out, runners on first and third:
Chances of the team scoring: 35.5%
Expected total of runs: 1.15442

b) 2 outs, runner on first
Chances of the team scoring: 100% (because they scored when you caught the ball)
Expected total of runs: 1.2221 (that's factoring in that you gave up a run on the catch)

However, the difference comes down to the chances of a team scoring a big number:

Scenario a) 6% chance of 4 or more runs (14.54% chance of 3+)
Scenario b) 2% chance of 4 or more runs, including the run already scored) (6.47882% chance of 3+)

I did all the work and I'm not sure what I would say. It basically just tells us what we already know. Obviously the number of runs expected to be given up it is statistically higher if you catch it, so it's better to let the ball drop because odds are you will give up less runs. But, there is a chance you dig yourself into too deep of a whole to get out. I think you just have to factor in who is at the plate and who is on deck. Again, I wouldn't let Pete Kozma an RBI, I'd make him do it again because odds are...he won't.

 

[williewilliejuan]

Okay, so I found a run expectancy chart...

A) 1 out, runners on first and third:
Chances of the team scoring: 35.5%
Expected total of runs: 1.15442

b) 2 outs, runner on first
Chances of the team scoring: 100% (because they scored when you caught the ball)
Expected total of runs: 1.2221 (that's factoring in that you gave up a run on the catch)

However, the difference comes down to the chances of a team scoring a big number:

Scenario a) 6% chance of 4 or more runs (14.54% chance of 3+)
Scenario b) 2% chance of 4 or more runs, including the run already scored) (6.47882% chance of 3+)

I did all the work and I'm not sure what I would say. It basically just tells us what we already know. Obviously the number of runs expected to be given up it is statistically higher if you catch it, so it's better to let the ball drop because odds are you will give up less runs. But, there is a chance you dig yourself into too deep of a whole to get out. I think you just have to factor in who is at the plate and who is on deck. Again, I wouldn't let Pete Kozma an RBI, I'd make him do it again because odds are...he won't.

Good stuff. Although you have to factor in that the fielder would either have to run through these scenarios before the batter comes to the plate or, more likely, make the decision on the fly while he's chasing down the ball.

 

[uncfan103]

Good stuff. Although you have to factor in that the fielder would either have to run through these scenarios before the batter comes to the plate or, more likely, make the decision on the fly while he's chasing down the ball.

Sure, unless it's a situation where it's taught. Runners on the corner we'd rather have the out.

Also, I know third base coaches are extremely aware of the batting order, who is on deck, the odds of a runner scoring from third, sending runners, holding runners, etc. No reason fielders can't be aware of the guys at the plate or on deck. Obviously, having those kind of numbers on the fly would be difficult, but having an understanding of the basic concept would not make it entirely too difficult.

 

[uncfan103]

What u dont show is the batter tripled and run scored anyways and next batter drove in the 5th run

No, I remember I grew up family friends with that pitcher and i remember watching it live with my family.

 

[williewilliejuan]

Sure, unless it's a situation where it's taught. Runners on the corner we'd rather have the out.

Also, I know third base coaches are extremely aware of the batting order, who is on deck, the odds of a runner scoring from third, sending runners, holding runners, etc. No reason fielders can't be aware of the guys at the plate or on deck. Obviously, having those kind of numbers on the fly would be difficult, but having an understanding of the basic concept would not make it entirely too difficult.

Maybe if you enforced a routine where they go through all of those variables before each bat, it might work. Or have the third base coach go through them and communicate before each batter. The problem is that the number of people on this planet capable of nuanced thought under pressure is exceedingly small. You'd be better off teaching the scenario that comes up 99% of the time than try to teach the rare situation where an exception would be appropriate.

 

[bksballer89]

BIG

 

[uncfan103]

Maybe if you enforced a routine where they go through all of those variables before each bat, it might work. Or have the third base coach go through them and communicate before each batter. The problem is that the number of people on this planet capable of nuanced thought under pressure is exceedingly small. You'd be better off teaching the scenario that comes up 99% of the time than try to teach the rare situation where an exception would be appropriate.

For sure. I don't think they need to know extreme specifics. But they should know this guys sucks and the pitcher is on deck. That's not difficult. Again, to piece all that together may be. But if you're taught from rookie ball on up when to catch the ball and when to let it drop is it possible it could be engrained in your head enough for it just to be a basic thought? I don't know. Knowing that the next two batters suck should cross your mind at some point though.

 

[williewilliejuan]

For sure. I don't think they need to know extreme specifics. But they should know this guys sucks and the pitcher is on deck. That's not difficult. Again, to piece all that together may be. But if you're taught from rookie ball on up when to catch the ball and when to let it drop is it possible it could be engrained in your head enough for it just to be a basic thought? I don't know. Knowing that the next two batters suck should cross your mind at some point though.

You'd also have to know who's on the bench because the guy on deck may not be the next guy to bat depending on the situation. Late in a game with a runner in scoring position, if the guy on deck sucks he might get pulled for a pinch hitter.

 

[ElTexan]

The differential between a guy who sucks on deck and a guy who doesn't might not even factor in compared to the other variables.

If you're betting even money whether a half court shot is made, it shouldn't matter if it's Jordan or Martin Short taking the shot… you should bet against.

 

[juliansteed]

I've see you say something "MAKES NO SENSE" a number of times that just aren't applicable. I think perhaps you don't know what it actually means. Your scenario immediately gives your opponent a free out. Frankly, if a manager directed his team to intentionally drop a fly ball and they don't get an out on that batter, he'd be on the hot seat forever. There are just too many scenarios where intentionally giving up an out can come around to bite you in the ass for this strategy to "MAKE SENSE" in many situations at all.

I agree that generally speaking, you catch the fly and give up the run. But there is a lot a of room for exceptions here.

 

[juliansteed]

In the 9th, without a doubt.
Maybe in the 8th too

Especially if you are the road team. Maybe not if you are the home team.

 

[juliansteed]

What u dont show is the batter tripled and run scored anyways and next batter drove in the 5th run

How many batters triple more often than going 0 for 1? Hindsight is 20/20.

 

[juliansteed]

Maybe if you enforced a routine where they go through all of those variables before each bat, it might work. Or have the third base coach go through them and communicate before each batter. The problem is that the number of people on this planet capable of nuanced thought under pressure is exceedingly small. You'd be better off teaching the scenario that comes up 99% of the time than try to teach the rare situation where an exception would be appropriate.

So you think that a guy on this message board might be aware of this but not a guy that gets paid to be a baseball manager?

Okay sure! Lets assume that is true. The question wasn't what do you think a guy would do? But was (not literally but implied) what should you do? So whether or not a batter has time to think about the stats isn't really relevant. Either way, if he doesn't have time to think about it, why would the default move be the one that opposes the statistics?

In my opinion this is a great topic and a great debate but I don't think there is a simple answer. I think in most cases you would take the out but I think there are so many variables at play that could make you think otherwise.

 

[uncfan103]

You'd also have to know who's on the bench because the guy on deck may not be the next guy to bat depending on the situation. Late in a game with a runner in scoring position, if the guy on deck sucks he might get pulled for a pinch hitter.

Sure. I'm not saying it wouldn't be difficult. Just know the situation.

Also, the question was what should you do. So, that's the question I was trying to help answer. Obviously the great third base coaches have a gift, but I think through the minor leagues it could be drilled into their heads. I'm not saying be perfect but having the basic understanding of the situation can be taught

 

[ElTexan]

To answer the one guys question: yes, there are lots of things guys on message boards think of that professionals don't. You know Tebow was drafted in the first round, right?
You saw Eli throwing the ball earlier this year instead of taking the sack and the e Tra 35 seconds. You see running backs go out of bounds instead of running clock. You see the Browns playing Russian roulette with their coaches and qb's.

Professionals are not gods... Especially when it comes to strategy.

In fact, I was going to put together a presentation called "1st down, fall down" for the Longhorns because of all the clock management mistakes I see on a weekly basis in cfb and the NFL.

Baylor lost the friggin Cotton Bowl because s receiver wasn't taught to simply take a knee after catching what would have been the final conversion of the game