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From Jonah Keri again at Grantland
Fighting for Traction
They’re showing signs of life, but they need to do more to earn the “contender” label.
26. Philadelphia Phillies (13-12, -10, LW: 27)
25. San Diego Padres (12-14, -21, LW: 21)
24. Seattle Mariners (10-14, -8, LW: 22)
23. Minnesota Twins (12-11, +5, LW: 25)
22. Toronto Blue Jays (12-13, -1, LW: 18)
21. Chicago White Sox (13-13, +5, LW: 23)
I’m going to start this Jose Abreu tribute by sharing a decidedly nonanalytical story.
On Friday night, I was sitting with Baseball Tonight analysts Eduardo Perez and Doug Glanville, watching the ninth inning of the Rays–White Sox game.3 Rays closer Grant Balfour began melting down, allowing a double, then two walks, then nearly getting into a fight with Paul Konerko. Perez started shouting at the TV, “Don’t let this get to Abreu! You’d better get out of this before getting to Abreu!” The next batter, Adam Eaton, hit what looked like a game-ending double play to second, but a slightly botched relay between Ben Zobrist and Yunel Escobar allowed Eaton to beat the ball by a hair. Rays manager Joe Maddon challenged the call, causing Perez to jump out of his chair. “You’re messing with Balfour’s timing now! Abreu’s going to go yard if he comes up, watch out!” Facing rookie Marcus Semien, with Abreu on deck, Balfour inexcusably started nibbling, throwing a 2-1 slider that missed the strike zone by a mile, and ultimately issuing the walk. Up strode Abreu, the 255-pound, 27-year-old rookie with light-tower power. “Game over right here!” yelled Perez. And he was right: On an 0-1 count, Balfour threw a fastball, middle-out and thigh-high. Abreu crushed it to deep right, into the Chicago night and over the wall.
The room exploded. Perez and Glanville played a combined 22 years and 1,869 games in the big leagues, enough to have seen it all. Yet they still high-fived and celebrated like one of them had just cranked the walk-off grand slam. They weren’t the only excited spectators: It’s a minor miracle that Hawk Harrelson didn’t have a coronary while calling the play, and the Spanish telecast’s “Sayonara, baby!” call was a delightful touch.
That’s the kind of impact Abreu is having. He’s got fans and former big leaguers alike predicting game-winning home runs five batters before he can even step to the plate. He’s turned a moribund White Sox team into a must-watch outfit every night. And so far, he’s making history.
People in baseball began predicting big things for Abreu years ago, when he was putting up video-game numbers in Cuba and no one knew when he’d make the trip north to the United States. But not even the biggest optimists could have predicted what he’s done. Through 26 games, Abreu leads the American League in home runs (10) and runs batted in (31). He’s already broken the all-time record for most homers and RBIs by a rookie in April, marks previously held by one of the most dynamic rookies (and most terrifying sluggers) ever to play the game: Albert Pujols.
To figure out how Abreu has done it, let’s dig into the numbers, with a big assist from ESPN Stats & Info.
Abreu hit a two-run homer Sunday against a pitch on the outer half of the plate, meaning he’s now jacked eight of his 10 home runs on pitches in that part of the zone. No hitter in the game has done a better job of blasting those pitches than Abreu. Here’s how he ranks when it comes to hitting pitches on the outer half, out of 196 qualified hitters:
His eight home runs rank first
His .797 slugging percentage ranks first
His .237 well-hit average ranks seventh
His 54 percent swing rate ranks ninth
Abreu hasn’t victimized only patsies, either. Sunday’s two-run bomb came against 2012 Cy Young winner David Price. On April 22, he took 2011 Cy Young winner Justin Verlander deep. He’s also tagged impressive Rays right-hander Chris Archer and Rangers lefty Robbie Ross, who owns a 2.45 ERA.
jose-abreu-heat-map
For all his dominance against outside pitches, though, Abreu has been relatively toothless against pitches on the inner half. Going by ESPN Stats & Info’s well-hit average stat, we find that Abreu ranks just 141st in baseball; he’s slugging a pedestrian .409 on those same pitches, ranking 76th in the majors.
Pitching coaches study scouting reports, and will undoubtedly adjust accordingly. When those inside pitches start coming more frequently, it’ll be the first real major league test for Abreu, whom skeptics knocked before this season for having too long a swing. We don’t yet know if he’ll pass that test. We do know that he’s already become appointment TV.
Fighting for Traction
They’re showing signs of life, but they need to do more to earn the “contender” label.
26. Philadelphia Phillies (13-12, -10, LW: 27)
25. San Diego Padres (12-14, -21, LW: 21)
24. Seattle Mariners (10-14, -8, LW: 22)
23. Minnesota Twins (12-11, +5, LW: 25)
22. Toronto Blue Jays (12-13, -1, LW: 18)
21. Chicago White Sox (13-13, +5, LW: 23)
I’m going to start this Jose Abreu tribute by sharing a decidedly nonanalytical story.
On Friday night, I was sitting with Baseball Tonight analysts Eduardo Perez and Doug Glanville, watching the ninth inning of the Rays–White Sox game.3 Rays closer Grant Balfour began melting down, allowing a double, then two walks, then nearly getting into a fight with Paul Konerko. Perez started shouting at the TV, “Don’t let this get to Abreu! You’d better get out of this before getting to Abreu!” The next batter, Adam Eaton, hit what looked like a game-ending double play to second, but a slightly botched relay between Ben Zobrist and Yunel Escobar allowed Eaton to beat the ball by a hair. Rays manager Joe Maddon challenged the call, causing Perez to jump out of his chair. “You’re messing with Balfour’s timing now! Abreu’s going to go yard if he comes up, watch out!” Facing rookie Marcus Semien, with Abreu on deck, Balfour inexcusably started nibbling, throwing a 2-1 slider that missed the strike zone by a mile, and ultimately issuing the walk. Up strode Abreu, the 255-pound, 27-year-old rookie with light-tower power. “Game over right here!” yelled Perez. And he was right: On an 0-1 count, Balfour threw a fastball, middle-out and thigh-high. Abreu crushed it to deep right, into the Chicago night and over the wall.
The room exploded. Perez and Glanville played a combined 22 years and 1,869 games in the big leagues, enough to have seen it all. Yet they still high-fived and celebrated like one of them had just cranked the walk-off grand slam. They weren’t the only excited spectators: It’s a minor miracle that Hawk Harrelson didn’t have a coronary while calling the play, and the Spanish telecast’s “Sayonara, baby!” call was a delightful touch.
That’s the kind of impact Abreu is having. He’s got fans and former big leaguers alike predicting game-winning home runs five batters before he can even step to the plate. He’s turned a moribund White Sox team into a must-watch outfit every night. And so far, he’s making history.
People in baseball began predicting big things for Abreu years ago, when he was putting up video-game numbers in Cuba and no one knew when he’d make the trip north to the United States. But not even the biggest optimists could have predicted what he’s done. Through 26 games, Abreu leads the American League in home runs (10) and runs batted in (31). He’s already broken the all-time record for most homers and RBIs by a rookie in April, marks previously held by one of the most dynamic rookies (and most terrifying sluggers) ever to play the game: Albert Pujols.
To figure out how Abreu has done it, let’s dig into the numbers, with a big assist from ESPN Stats & Info.
Abreu hit a two-run homer Sunday against a pitch on the outer half of the plate, meaning he’s now jacked eight of his 10 home runs on pitches in that part of the zone. No hitter in the game has done a better job of blasting those pitches than Abreu. Here’s how he ranks when it comes to hitting pitches on the outer half, out of 196 qualified hitters:
His eight home runs rank first
His .797 slugging percentage ranks first
His .237 well-hit average ranks seventh
His 54 percent swing rate ranks ninth
Abreu hasn’t victimized only patsies, either. Sunday’s two-run bomb came against 2012 Cy Young winner David Price. On April 22, he took 2011 Cy Young winner Justin Verlander deep. He’s also tagged impressive Rays right-hander Chris Archer and Rangers lefty Robbie Ross, who owns a 2.45 ERA.
jose-abreu-heat-map
For all his dominance against outside pitches, though, Abreu has been relatively toothless against pitches on the inner half. Going by ESPN Stats & Info’s well-hit average stat, we find that Abreu ranks just 141st in baseball; he’s slugging a pedestrian .409 on those same pitches, ranking 76th in the majors.
Pitching coaches study scouting reports, and will undoubtedly adjust accordingly. When those inside pitches start coming more frequently, it’ll be the first real major league test for Abreu, whom skeptics knocked before this season for having too long a swing. We don’t yet know if he’ll pass that test. We do know that he’s already become appointment TV.
