Kirk Cousins

[Niner Outlaw]

I bet they would have come down on that if it was SF due to how high they are drafting. 2nd rounder and a 4th probably would have got it done.They put the cost high because they don't want to just give up a guy who has the potential to be a franchise QB. As good as Dalton is, there is still a camp of Bengal fans hoping AJ is our next starting QB. I never said he would be cheap, but it is certainly better than the 2 -1st round picks Washington will require, or more for Cousins unless he walks free agency. Then you are looking at a top 3 contract in all of football to sign him. I am sure Cincy will negotiate down next year once they put the tag on him.

Imo, a 2 and a 4 is still too high a price for someone like McCarron, particularly with the Niners' picks being near the top of each rd. He may be a future franchise QB--he showed a lot of promise when he got a chance to play--but I don't think we'll see what other teams really think of AJ until February 2019, when he's either a FA or the Bengals hit him with the FT or TT. However, either 2018 or 2019, I could see a team with Cincy ties, like the Skins with Gruden, value AJ more than other teams would, and should the Skins lose Cousins after this season or after the 2018 season, Washington seems like the type of team to go after him.

Washington will not require 2 1st rd picks for Cousins anyway and no team would pay it even if they did. The entire league knows KC will be a FA either this coming offseason or the next, so the Skins have no leverage to make high demands. They blew their chance to get max trade value for Cousins when they failed to trade him this offseason (and by max, I mean maybe a 2d pick).

The Niners have the luxury of time. They aren't in a rush. The team is in year 1 or 2 of a major rebuild and the HC and GM just got 6 year deals, so there is no pressure to win for the first couple of seasons. That's why if Cousins gets tagged again in February 2018 or the Niners get outbid for him as a FA, we can still use a top pick this year on one of the blue chip QBs coming out--and this 2018 QB draft class looks like it could have 2 or 3 Qbs rated higher than any QB in the 2017 draft class.

 

[CrashDavisSports]

I will give you that about this draft class possibly having better QB options than last year. McCarron is under appreciated because of being a backup in Cincinnati. I can see the reservations seeing how the rest of the league hasn't really got to see who AJ is. He is very charismatic too. Players love him. He is the type of guy that other guys follow to the end. You don't look as goofy as AJ, make league minimum as a backup QB and nail a beauty queen if you do not have that IT factor in your personality. I am just saying. I am certainly not a 49ers fan after watching them beat us in our only two Superbowls, but I think SF is actually a better fit for AJ than Washington is.

 

[Niner Outlaw]

I will give you that about this draft class possibly having better QB options than last year. McCarron is under appreciated because of being a backup in Cincinnati. I can see the reservations seeing how the rest of the league hasn't really got to see who AJ is. He is very charismatic too. Players love him. He is the type of guy that other guys follow to the end. You don't look as goofy as AJ, make league minimum as a backup QB and nail a beauty queen if you do not have that IT factor in your personality. I am just saying. I am certainly not a 49ers fan after watching them beat us in our only two Superbowls, but I think SF is actually a better fit for AJ than Washington is.

I agree, McCarron's play has been underrated. Why do you think SF is a better for him than Washington?

 

[Ricky Roma]

I agree the franchise tag is unlikely, but you never know with Snider. His dislike for Shanny is well known, so he could tag the guy for another year just out of spite, even though it gives Cousins 34M and opens the door to free agency the following year (arguably--the CBA doesn't explicitly prohibit 3 tags). In case of the TT, a team like the Niners or Browns could easily craft an offer sheet that Washington won't/can't match.

Washington really botched this whole thing. They should've traded the guy in this offseason before the draft. At least then, they would've gotten decent value for him. Now, they're screwed.
--Skins won't meet his demands, and his demands will either stay the same or go up in 2018
--If they simply let him walk in FA after this season, they'll get a comp pick at the end of the 3rd rd (assuming they don't sign a corresponding high dollar FA).
--If they don't match another team's transition offer, the Skins get nothing, not even a comp pick.
--If they franchise tag him again, they're paying him 34M on a 1yr deal and he'll be gone the next year
--They won't be bad enough in 2017 to draft the great-looking 2018 Qb crop this year without paying a Griffin/Walker deal...again

I'm not too sure Washington would've received much in return for trading Cousins.....most everyone has it locked down on the situation at hand in DC. Why give up much, at all, when he can be available in a year and the only thing you'll probably have to unload is a Brinks truck? I guess you guarantee you get him....on a condition that he signs a long term deal.

I agree the Redskins screwed up the situation, but I can at least see an argument that Cousins isn't a great player, and don't like being forced into a position of paying him like one. The QB position dictates wins/losses in todays game more than at any other time in history, and with the salary cap/free agency, you're put in a postion of rolling the dice. All the 'Cousins/Shanahan/49ers' stories like it's all but certain....guess when there is that much smoke.

 

[Niner Outlaw]

I agree the Redskins screwed up the situation, but I can at least see an argument that Cousins isn't a great player, and don't like being forced into a position of paying him like one. The QB position dictates wins/losses in todays game more than at any other time in history, and with the salary cap/free agency, you're put in a postion of rolling the dice. All the 'Cousins/Shanahan/49ers' stories like it's all but certain....guess when there is that much smoke.

That's what blows my mind about the Skins' FO dealings with Cousins--they were always a year behind. Each year, the team offered him what he wanted the previous offseason. That's not how negotiations work. When he wanted 15-16M/year, the team wanted to pay him 12. The next year, he wanted 18-20, the team offered him 16 and ended up tagging him. The next year, his demands started at the 24M tag amount, but the team was only offering 20 or so, so he was tagged again.


Then to see the way the de facto GM threw Cousins under the bus in his recent press release, damn. That was impressive incompetence. Reminded me of the Yorks' work.

The scary thing is that they did all that while having no exit plan--no plan B. Their plan B was the tag and now, that's gonna be VERY pricey come february. Surely, not even Snyder is crazy enough to pay a one year deal for 34M?

I agree. The media make it out like it's a lock that Cousins signs with the Niners. At this point, the upset would be if he resigned in Washington in February.

 

[Ricky Roma]

I agree. The media make it out like it's a lock that Cousins signs with the Niners. At this point, the upset would be if he resigned in Washington in February.

I'd have a good laugh if he really wants out of DC, and signs with SF/Shanny on a lesser deal because of the connection with KS and simply an FU to Snyder and Allen.

 

[Pattersonca65]

I'd have a good laugh if he really wants out of DC, and signs with SF/Shanny on a lesser deal because of the connection with KS and simply an FU to Snyder and Allen.

I don't know that their front office could have handled the whole thing any worse. Their FO is as dysfunctional as ours was under Baalke

 

[poewelch84]

I'm not sure how good Cousins is but his numbers rated him in the top 5 to 10 QB's in the league last year.

 

[deep9er]

I'm not sure how good Cousins is but his numbers rated him in the top 5 to 10 QB's in the league last year.

read an article saying these stats were piled on between the 20 yard lines, he was aided by receivers who could fly downfield. However, he struggled mightily in the red zone. This was telling regarding his inability to read, process, and execute. by the time free agency hits next year, i won't be on Cousin's bandwagon. For the kind of money he'll command, no thanks.

We're better off drafting another QB, and strengthening the O-line. Manage that cap cause in 2-3 years, we'll need it to extend the defensive studs. There will be more than a few by then.

 

[deep9er]

Cousins' Stats

That's not to say that Cousins' stats aren't impressive, as reported in a recent article by 49ers Webzone's Bret Rumbeck:

Nobody can discount the numbers Cousins put up over the last two seasons. He's thrown for just over 9,000 yards, tossed 54 touchdowns and completed 68.4 percent of his passes.
Cousins does throw for a lot of yards -- in 2016, his 4,917 passing yards and 8.1 yards-per-attempt average were the third best in the NFL. The stats say that Cousins is also generally efficient and accurate -- in 2016, his quarterback rating of 97.2 was the seventh highest in the league, and his 67.0-percent completion percentage was the NFL's eighth best. However, Cousins isn't at the top of the class in all quarterback metrics: in 2016, his touchdown percentage and interception percentage were average among starting NFL quarterbacks, and his nine fumbles were the fifth most among all QBs.

Throwing for a lot of yards is great, but getting the ball into the end zone is better -- there's a reason why the 2016 Redskins led the league in field goal attempts, but were just 15th in extra points -- and it's the same reason why the Redskins only won half of their games. The Washington Redskins -- and quarterback Kirk Cousins -- have a red zone problem. The Redskins have an elite offensive line, one of the NFL's best tight ends, two 1,000-yard wideouts, a top slot receiverand three serviceable running backs. So what's missing?

A franchise quarterback.

Cousins' Red Zone Problem

Solely based on his stats, Cousins appears to be a franchise -- bordering on elite -- quarterback on early downs, outside of the red zone. In 2016, his overall passing success rate (the "Hidden Game of Football" version, based on yardage, down and distance) was the fourth highest in the NFL on first and second downs, but a mediocre 10th best on third downs. However, Cousins' real problems began when he entered the red zone, where his success rate dropped to 29th in the league. Cousins' red zone quarterback rating was 24th in the league, due to a severe decrease in completion percentage; Cousins' 67.0-percent overall completion percentage fell to 45.8-percent in the red zone. Inside the 10-yard line, Cousins' 31.6-percent completion percentage was the worst in the NFL.

Why was Cousins so bad in the red zone? In order to answer this question, we first need a better understanding of who Cousins is as a quarterback, and how the Redskins utilize him outside of the red zone -- and to do that, I analyzed all of his 2016 game film. Cousins is obviously a talented player with many qualities a general manager looks for in a starting quarterback. Cousins doesn't have an elite arm, but he has enough arm strength to throw the ball deep, and he shows excellent accuracy on deep passes when he throws from a solid base. When unpressured, Cousins has the proper velocity and accuracy on his intermediate passes; incompletions are usually caused by either poor decision-making or pressure from the defense. Even though Cousins throws a high percentage of short passes, his accuracy on these shorter throws is often lacking, especially when he's forced to rush the throw. And although Cousins does not navigate the pocket exceptionally well, he is rarely sacked, thanks to his elite offensive line and his propensity to throw passes away at the first sign of pressure.

The Redskins' Offensive Scheme

At their respective NFL Combines, Cousins' top three 2016 receivers ran 40-yard times in the 4.3s and 4.4s, and his second tight end -- Vernon Davis -- once ran in the 4.3s himself. The Redskins' speed at the receiver position provided Cousins with deep threats on the vast majority of passing plays. With fast receivers running deep routes, the Redskins implemented a variety of vertical stretch concepts, and with opposing safeties pushed back, easier matchups were created for receivers running intermediate routes. The Redskins paired these concepts with the play-action pass with great success. With defenses concerned with the deep ball as well as the run, tight end Jordan Reed was often left relatively uncovered for a player of his caliber, and provided a consistent outlet for Cousins. Cousins threw a large percentage of his passes near the line of scrimmage, but his yards-per-attempt average was bolstered by a number of deep passes, and his receivers adding yardage after the catch.

Stretching the field vertically is a priority for every good team, but even more so for the Redskins, because Cousins lacks the ability to properly assess the entire field. The Redskins regularly used route concepts that allowed Cousins to focus on a limited area of the field in order to minimize the mistakes in his route progressions.

Cousins Needs to Win Pre-Snap

The majority of Cousins' impressive passes -- and there were many in 2016 -- were throws to Cousins' first read, from a clean pocket. Cousins was extremely successful on passing plays that were designed to be thrown to a specific receiver -- provided that the receiver was open -- and he had limited success on plays that required improvisation.

When Cousins was able to predict the defensive coverage, he consistently hit his first read quickly and with great accuracy -- for example, when linebackers bit on a play-action fake, by the time Cousins hit the back of his drop, the ball was out of his hands and on its way to a receiver down the seam. However, when Cousins had to wait for his first read to work his way open, Cousins often stared down the receiver, which -- as expected -- often got him into trouble. Cousins rarely effectively looked off safeties or zone defenders -- and although it was obvious that he made more of an attempt in the latter part of the season, he was rarely successful moving defenders with his eyes.

Pre-Snap Decisions

Since Cousins was much more comfortable -- and successful -- throwing to his first read, he sometimes fell into the trap of predetermining where he would throw the ball prior to the snap. He made this mistake surprisingly often on third down and short, where he ignored open receivers beyond the sticks in order to throw passes to well-covered receivers deep down the field.

Route Progression and Telegraphing Passes

When Cousins knew where he wanted to go pre-snap -- and the defense reacted the way he expected -- Cousins was one of the most dangerous quarterbacks in the NFL. Cousins needed only a split second to recognize that his first read was open before delivering the pass on target.

But what happened when Cousins' first read wasn't immediately open? Thanks to the Redskins' offensive line, Cousins usually had the time to wait for his receiver to find a hole in the defensive coverage, allowing Cousins to deliver an accurate pass. However, when his first read was covered, Cousins was forced to go through his route progressions. Although Cousins went through his progressions slower than you would expect for a "franchise quarterback," the larger problem was the way he progressed through his receivers. Instead of using just his eyes to scan the field, he moved his entire head, allowing defenders to easily identify his intended target. Then, once he chose his target, Cousins stared down the receiver and took an abnormally long time to assess the speed of the receiver in order to determine the exact location to throw the ball. If Cousins didn't take the extended time to assess the receiver, his passes were usually well off the mark.

The combination of Cousins' limited field of vision and his propensity to telegraph passes caused additional problems for the Redskins' signal caller. Savvy zone defenders who realized Cousins' limitations keyed on the quarterback and ignored receivers running through their area in order to break on receivers who were more likely to receive the pass. Even when Cousins properly read a defense, defenders were often not where they were "supposed to be" as the offensive play was designed. This lead to Cousins throwing passes into the hands of defenders even when throwing from a clean pocket -- but the Redskins' real problems began when Cousins was subjected to quarterback pressure.

 

[deep9er]

Not saying Cousins isn't good, but saying he isn't $28M per year good. i would prefer a QB with accuracy even if short and medium routes. i would rather have a QB that can read defenses and be able to see his 2nd read when necessary. I would take this over pure gaudy stats.

It makes sense that weaknesses would turn up in the red zone. Didn't Kaepernick have the same issues when in the RZ? Kaepernich almost never thru in the middle but mainly to the far outside (fades).