Kaepernick looking for $18 million per year

[Davis_Mike]

Report: Kaepernick looking for $18 million per year

Posted by Mike Florio on March 3, 2014, 9:07 AM EST

As it turns out, coach Jim Harbaugh is a bargain in comparison to quarterback Colin Kaepernick.

At a time when it’s believed that Harbaugh hopes to increase his annual salary from $5 million to $6.5 million in 2014, Kaepernick hopes to end in a much higher spot. While starting in a much lower one.

Due to earn $973,000 this year, Kaepernick reportedly is looking for $18 million per year as part of a long-term deal, according to Ben Volin of the Boston Globe.

That would put Kaepernick in the same ballpark as Bears quarterback Jay Cutler and Cowboys quarterback Tony Romo, and slightly ahead of Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford, who averages $17.6 million per year.

It’s also considerably more than Patriots quarterback Tom Brady’s current $14.1 million per year deal, which nevertheless kicked off in 2013 with a $30 million signing bonus.

The question for the 49ers is whether to take the Joe Flacco approach or the Matt Ryan approach. In 2012, the Ravens opted to let Flacco finish his rookie contract, and he did so with a Super Bowl MVP trophy. It backed the Ravens into a corner, forcing them to choose between making him the highest-paid quarterback in the league or starting down a year-to-year path under the exclusive franchise tag that would have given him more than $80 million in three years.

In 2013, the Falcons opted to pay Matt Ryan before he completed the final year of his rookie deal and backed the team into the same corner, forcing Atlanta to break the bank even bigger in early 2014. Despite the team’s unexpectedly bad season, the Falcons still would have been faced with a dilemma between using the non-exclusive franchise tag (and risking a pilfering by another team happy to give up two first-round picks) and applying the exclusive version of the tag.

Kaepernick arguably hasn’t played enough games (he has only 23 regular-season starts) to justify the kind of money he wants. Also, given his mobile playing style, the 49ers will assume a greater injury risk upon giving Kaepernick long-term security.

With new team president Paraag Marathe, an analytics aficionado, recently explaining at the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference that advanced statistics “absolutely play a big role” in contract negotiations, the sample size is still too small to pay Kaepernick at or near the top of the market.

“Both sides in a contract negotiation, both sides are using analytics and data to help support — it’s confirmation bias to the max, everybody’s trying to find evidence that supports whatever theory or contract demand they want to make,” Marathe said, via Mike Rodak of ESPN.com. “They can cut it and slice it in a lot of ways that help you.”

Two stats can slice apart the legend of Colin Kaepernick. As explained in the latest edition of ESPN The Magazine, Kaepernick had a league-worst 54.6 completion percentage while under pressure. He also was sacked 20.2 percent of the time when facing pressure, the fourth highest average among all NFL starters.

Then there’s the question of whether Kaepernick’s success comes more from his innate abilities or from the highly talented team that surrounds him. And whether any other coach can get out of Kaepernick the production that Harbaugh has — especially once the postseason rolls around and Kaepernick seems to find a higher level of play.

With the Harbaugh situation potentially imploding after 2014, it’s probably a good idea to wait to pay Kaepernick the kind of money he’s looking for. If he has another strong season, the number won’t get much higher in 2015. If Kaepernick struggles, it could become a lot cheaper to keep him.

If Kaepernick is looking for or eventually gets money in that range, imagine what Wilson likely would get. It doesn't bode well for Seattle fans who think Wilson will be signed for less than the current standard for QB contracts.

 

[FaCe-LeE-uS]

"With the Harbaugh situation potentially imploding after 2014, it’s probably a good idea to wait to pay Kaepernick the kind of money he’s looking for. If he has another strong season, the number won’t get much higher in 2015. If Kaepernick struggles, it could become a lot cheaper to keep him. "

This

 

[cdumler7]

Yeah if Kaep has a decent year and get's this kind of contract the $18 million in my opinion is going to become just the bottom level of what a franchise quarterback gets. That will be the starting point then go up from there depending on whether the player is average or in that top 7 conversation for quarterbacks.

 

[HammerDown]

Kaepernick getting over $1,000,000 per game?

I hope like hell he gets it and the 49ers have to pay him every damned cent.

 

[MHSL82]

The question for the 49ers is whether to take the Joe Flacco approach or the Matt Ryan approach. In 2012, the Ravens opted to let Flacco finish his rookie contract, and he did so with a Super Bowl MVP trophy. It backed the Ravens into a corner, forcing them to choose between making him the highest-paid quarterback in the league or starting down a year-to-year path under the exclusive franchise tag that would have given him more than $80 million in three years.

If the Niners take the Flacco approach, it could cost them (not much because 18 is high end, right now). If the Bengals take the Ryan approach, it could cost them. My recommendation would be for both to do the reverse of that. (But still try to get Kaepernick as low as possible in that range, just because less is better for teams.)

 

[JDM]

I don't think kaepernick commands more than 13 or so on the open market ATM. 18 is really high for his body of work and skill set.

 

[HammerDown]

I don't think kaepernick commands more than 13 or so on the open market ATM. 18 is really high for his body of work and skill set.

Shhhhh. We want the 49ers to pay it, remember?

 

[fordman84]

Imagine if he didn't crap the bed everytime he rolled into Seattle. I get he would think he was worth $25M a year

 

[RegentDenali]

Pay the man. Flacco money.

 

[Johnnydollaz89]

Talk about being overpaid....

 

[gowazzu02]

I don't think kaepernick commands more than 13 or so on the open market ATM. 18 is really high for his body of work and skill set.

QB's man, If bums like Romo and Cutler are getting what they got, Kap and Wilson should be asking for the moon.

 

[HammerDown]

Pay the man. Flacco money.

This.

 

[MHSL82]

I don't think kaepernick commands more than 13 or so on the open market ATM. 18 is really high for his body of work and skill set.

I wasn't being serious but some disgruntled Niners fan said he was worth 8 million, so I said 8 + 18 = 26 / 2 = 13/year.

Then I, only slightly more serious said:

They could do a bridge contract where it is 1 million this year as scheduled (team player), 8 next year as this guy says, and 18 what Kaepernick is asking for. Three years 27 million, 9 guaranteed with the 18M third year being an April 2016 roster bonus (it would be displayed as fully guaranteed to the regular public like a 9/year deal) - where if Kaepernick delivers this year, they add 3-4 years to it at 18 per added year. If he doesn't deliver this year, he's on a prove it 8 million dollar one-year deal (third year is cuttable).

Not really suggesting it, just saying there are levels of structuring. Don't like 9/year? You could do the same by adding a few to this year or next to make it a 12/year average or something. Point is, make the third year 18, what he's reportedly asking for - they can always restructure/extend higher (Kaepernick wouldn't object).

 

[MHSL82]

QB's man, If bums like Romo and Cutler are getting what they got, Kap and Wilson should be asking for the moon.

I wish QBs for their team sake would take deals that match their worth and not ruin it for the rest of the team (unable to sign help) or rest of the teams trying to sign theirs. I called Cutler's deal makeup sex because they felt bad for how McCown played and made Cutler feel. I also wish they would make this determination not based on what other QBs made.

But that's unrealistic and they should and will take what they can get because the NFL has a lot of money and can cut or trade them at any time (sometimes with financial consequences, but they can).

 

[JDM]

QB's man, If bums like Romo and Cutler are getting what they got, Kap and Wilson should be asking for the moon.

That's considering the inflated value of the position. What has he shown exactly?

 

[SonnyCID]

As much as I dislike Kap, of course he his. Who goes in to negotiations lowballing themselves?

 

[WizardHawk]

Wilson's contract will depend a lot on this coming year. If they make another deep run in the playoffs and he continues to be steady along the way he will/should get over 17m/y. If the team has setbacks or he has struggles maybe it's less.

With the projected cap likely going up to 140m after this season the rate for QB's will probably start creeping up to 20m/y and I could see Wilson getting close to that unless he wants to give a discount to protect the roster.

Given that he wants to be a team owner at some point in the future I'm not sure how likely he is to take those discounts.

 

[ATL96Steeler]

This will be one of the more interesting signings...with Cam Newton also due to become a FA next year, I'm curious to see how high the bar goes for these starting mobile QBs. Will it be similar to what Matt Ryan/Flacco/Romo got?

I think a notch lower.

 

[JDM]

Cam will, although he's one of the worst of the group of upcoming free agents IMO.

 

[NCChiFan]

Too low, Jay Cutler's base is $22mil... He should ask for more than that...