Is Baker Mayfield a Bust?

[PDay8810]

Anybody that doesn't think Baker can be better next season is nuts. Last season was his first in a new offense. He is still just 28 years old. He is only going to get more and more comfortable with Evans, Godwin, and Otten.

call me nuts

 

[DJ Fieri]

call me nuts

Everybody here already knew that.

 

[belcherboy]

call me nuts

I think he will likely get marginally better after getting more comfortable in the offense (there offense wasn't very good last year so it should be easy to improve it). I still don't see him cracking into the top 10 QB's though. In my opinion, he has too much to overcome in Tampa. The best advantage to Tampa's playoff chances are playing in the South. That division is a mess, but I think Cousins will have a great year. Atlanta's O-Line (I believe ranked #4 last year) will give him plenty of time to deliver the ball. He should be able to get the Falcons to 10+ wins.

I think Baker and the Bucs will struggle this year. Their offense and defense just needs too much help, and I don't think 9 wins will get them a playoff spot again (which I think is their best case scenario next season).

 

[PDay8810]

Everybody here already knew that.

now you speak for everyone?

 

[PDay8810]

I think he will likely get marginally better after getting more comfortable in the offense (there offense wasn't very good last year so it should be easy to improve it). I still don't see him cracking into the top 10 QB's though. In my opinion, he has too much to overcome in Tampa. The best advantage to Tampa's playoff chances are playing in the South. That division is a mess, but I think Cousins will have a great year. Atlanta's O-Line (I believe ranked #4 last year) will give him plenty of time to deliver the ball. He should be able to get the Falcons to 10+ wins.

I think Baker and the Bucs will struggle this year. Their offense and defense just needs too much help, and I don't think 9 wins will get them a playoff spot again (which I think is their best case scenario next season).

dude...it is very clear how you feel. Opinions vary.

 

[belcherboy]

dude...it is very clear how you feel. Opinions vary.

I wasn't disagreeing with you. Marginally better isn't really much different than thinking he won't get better, especially if the team doesn't win any more games than the previous season (I think they could actually go backwards a bit in the win column).

 

[PDay8810]

I wasn't disagreeing with you. Marginally better isn't really much different than thinking he won't get better, especially if the team doesn't win any more games than the previous season (I think they could actually go backwards a bit in the win column).

you can disagree.

 

[belcherboy]

you can disagree.

I guess I can, but I really don't. Do you want me to disagree with you?

 

[PDay8810]

I guess I can, but I really don't. Do you want me to disagree with you?

no sir

your opinion has as much value as mine.

 

[belcherboy]

no sir

your opinion has as much value as mine.

Well good, because I think we have basically the same opinion in this.

 

[Stakesarehigh]

I disagree. He will be moderately better rather than marginally better.

 

[fastforward]

and if he was cut post June in 25 he'd be a 20 million dollar dead cap hit. They wouldn't escape this entirely without financial commitment. That said it's still a great deal. No matter what happens Baker gets 50 million and just last year that didn't look likely.

So people can continue to detract all they want on the dude but he's at least accomplished that

edit

now that I look at this thing it's likely they at minimum restructure his 3rd year into an extension. Although 2 years from now 50 million may be a deal with the direction this is going.

No.

 

[shopson67]

Pretty wish-washy discourse here, seems I have stumbled in on a group hug of some sort.

 

[Stakesarehigh]

No.

no what dude

 

[belcherboy]

Pretty wish-washy discourse here, seems I have stumbled in on a group hug of some sort.

You stumbled? This is exactly where you wanted to be.

 

[fastforward]

no what dude

It's $10M guaranteed for 2025. The 2nd $10M guarantee doesn't guarantee until 5+ days into the new 2025 year and free agency period. IF Mayfield was going to be cut it would be before that 2nd guarantee kicked in. If he's going to be cut it wouldn't be done as a post Jun 1 cut because the Buccaneers would have to account for the $30M salary until June just to avoid having to account for the $10M guaranteed salary through the rest of the season.

For now the 2nd guarantee is only for injury. If he was injured it's highly unlikely the Buccaneers would make an early decision on cutting him because there wouldn't be any advantage. They could wait until Week 1. It wouldn't cost more and potentially Mayfield might be willing to make a cheaper, earlier settlement so he could make a deal somewhere else.

The irony of the deal is that if things fall apart for Mayfield and the Buccaneers and the Buccaneers don't want him for 2025 that decision is likely to happen late during the 2024 season as happened with Russell Wilson. The team would bench or cut him to prevent any risk of injury.

I don't think any of this will come apart but this is the situation. It's not a $50M full guarantee and a Post Jun 1 cut wouldn't be realistic.

 

[Stakesarehigh]

It's $10M guaranteed for 2025. The 2nd $10M guarantee doesn't guarantee until 5+ days into the new 2025 year and free agency period. IF Mayfield was going to be cut it would be before that 2nd guarantee kicked in. If he's going to be cut it wouldn't be done as a post Jun 1 cut because the Buccaneers would have to account for the $30M salary until June just to avoid having to account for the $10M guaranteed salary through the rest of the season.

For now the 2nd guarantee is only for injury. If he was injured it's highly unlikely the Buccaneers would make an early decision on cutting him because there wouldn't be any advantage. They could wait until Week 1. It wouldn't cost more and potentially Mayfield might be willing to make a cheaper, earlier settlement so he could make a deal somewhere else.

The irony of the deal is that if things fall apart for Mayfield and the Buccaneers and the Buccaneers don't want him for 2025 that decision is likely to happen late during the 2024 season as happened with Russell Wilson. The team would bench or cut him to prevent any risk of injury.

I don't think any of this will come apart but this is the situation. It's not a $50M full guarantee and a Post Jun 1 cut wouldn't be realistic.

I'm going off the cap site I usually use. It has post June as 20 million dead cap.

But yes given it is all back loaded in that 3rd year cap wise it's highly unlikely he's cut before then.

At this point we are just squabbling over a deal no one (including myself) thought he'd be signing at this point last year

fwiw it has pre June as 30 million dead cap. Which is why I used post

 

[Shanemansj13]

Honestly, I expect baker to regress some this year. Not sure of his stats, but It's always been my view of Baker that he's just good enough to get his next, improved, contract. After signing the deal, when he's counted on, he regresses.

This is why CLE traded for Watson. His ceiling was higher without a doubt. Now with his injury last year he didn’t get to show his potential. Baker is a very good QB but there is a clear ceiling the Browns saw from him and I can’t disagree.

 

[Stakesarehigh]

This is why CLE traded for Watson. His ceiling was higher without a doubt. Now with his injury last year he didn’t get to show his potential. Baker is a very good QB but there is a clear ceiling the Browns saw from him and I can’t disagree.

Watson definitely has the higher ceiling. Eliminate all the massage drama and it's a no Brainer.

Unfortunately that's not the reality of the situation

 

[Shanemansj13]

Anybody that doesn't think Baker can be better next season is nuts. Last season was his first in a new offense. He is still just 28 years old. He is only going to get more and more comfortable with Evans, Godwin, and Otten.

You never know. I’m sure Browns fans thought the same and it was kind of a roller coaster. If that were the case every QB on every roster would improve every year. That isn’t how it works but I think he can be just fine. I see a clear ceiling with his game and that is likely the divisional. He had a great season last year though but we could see the same