I'm very excited about this Den game.

[beardown07]

The run defense is not better than last year. Sure, injuries and rookies, new scheme, got it. But the actual results...are actually worse. Last year, 4.3 YPC, this year 4.8 YPC. And you call that "much better"?

What are the TD ratios?


Total yards?

Rankings?



This Defense is better. This Defense is keeping teams out of the endzone. Last two years' D's were giving up a ton of points.


Stats are cool, but points are what matter most, to me, at least.

 

[cubzzzfanincali]

I completely agree that passing defense is quite a bit better. No doubt. The run defense, no way. Football Outsiders has ours ranked 31st this year. last year they were 21st. Yards per game, 2015 128.5, last year 112.7. They only gave up 12 rushing TDs all season last year, which was league-average. Last year's defense mainly sucked on the passing side. The run defense was pretty poor, but not as bad as this year.

And it isn't just the stats. They look like crap. I honestly have no idea what you guys are seeing. Jenkins has gone from bad to worse, and for as much of a lift as McPhee has given the pass rush, he is a shitty run defender. Watching a Bear game has mostly been an exercise in watching opposing O lines own our defensive front 7. Green Bay would have almost certainly beaten us if they hadn't mysteriously quit running the ball in the second half.

 

[beardown07]

I completely agree that passing defense is quite a bit better. No doubt. The run defense, no way. Football Outsiders has ours ranked 31st this year. last year they were 21st. Yards per game, 2015 128.5, last year 112.7. They only gave up 12 rushing TDs all season last year, which was league-average. Last year's defense mainly sucked on the passing side. The run defense was pretty poor, but not as bad as this year.

And it isn't just the stats. They look like crap. I honestly have no idea what you guys are seeing. Jenkins has gone from bad to worse, and for as much of a lift as McPhee has given the pass rush, he is a shitty run defender. Watching a Bear game has mostly been an exercise in watching opposing O lines own our defensive front 7. Green Bay would have almost certainly beaten us if they hadn't mysteriously quit running the ball in the second half.

You're right except they kind of feed off each other. If your pass D is top 5, teams will be inclined to run it more, no? More attempts generally mean more yards.


The run D isn't great, but it's 2nd in the NFL in TD's against. That's where I think the stats can mislead a little.


The pass D has improved the most for sure tho

 

[cubzzzfanincali]

Let me point this out further. Let's look at the Packer drives in the second half of the game.

To refresh, let's set the stage. The half started 14-13. The Packers are averaging 6.5 YPC, and are down 1 point. They are owning us at the LOS. There is zero reason whatsoever to abandon the run.

The Packers had 4 drives in the half. Here is what happened.

Drive 1. The Packers, intelligently, open up with 6 runs and get 32 yards and 3 first downs. That's very successful, but then whatever drugs they were taking kicked in. They then run 6 straight pass plays, and only pull off a single first down when a penalty is called on Amos. They punt. It's only one drive, but pretty stark contrast in play success.

Drive 2. Now down 17-13, but hardly warrants ditching the run, especially since it was working so well in contrast to the Packer passing game. They start off with three runs and get another first down as a result, which is pretty much the end of all Packer running in the game at 10:28 still to play (with one exception right before 2 min warning). Then they start firing off passes, 6 of them in a row again, and again with the only first down coming as a result of the penalty called on Gaston. Anyway, they have to punt again. DETECTING ANY PATTERNS HERE ANYONE??

Drive 3. It is later in the game, but there is still plenty of time, as drive starts with 4:09 on clock. Ignoring every shred of evidence from the game, the Packers decide to try to move downfield in the air, prompting howls of frustration from my buddies and cackles of laughter at the stupidity from me. 2 broken pass plays resulting in Rodgers scrambles later, then their only passing first down play of the second half to this point, and then an interception. I don't know about you, but at some point does the thought occur to you that maybe they should have run more often? No? Ohhh....I'm sorry.

Drive 4. This drive consists of 13 plays. 12 of them were passes, and one was a run literally right before the two minute warning (which sure seems to suggest to me that, yes, sure, they really DID want to run, they just panicked and turned to only passing too early). That run, by the way, went 7 yards (hmmm). Most crucially of all, the Packers show up at the Bear 8 with 51 seconds on the clock, which even with no timeouts is enough time to run twice, and even if they stay inbounds or don't score a TD, is still enough time for 2 shots in the end zone on 3rd and 4th downs. But what do the Packers do? Learning no lessons from the SF/Balt Super Bowl a couple years back, they opt to try 4 times through the air even though it had not been terribly successful all game. 4 incompletions later, the Bears get the W.

The defense is better, but only in the passing game. Our run defense sucks ass this year. Fortunately for us, our archrivals somehow managed to not notice.

 

[cubzzzfanincali]

The run D isn't great, but it's 2nd in the NFL in TD's against. That's where I think the stats can mislead a little.

Certainly stats always need context. This stat is a great example.

The Bears run D is in fact giving up few TDs. But that's not because we are magically suddenly stout against the run. It is because - for really no good reason whatsoever - opposing teams are choosing not to run when they get deep in the red zone. I defy anyone to come up with a plausible reason why they aren't, but they aren't.

Here, take a look:

Opponent run calls inside Bears 10:

Green Bay: 0
Denver: 1
St. Louis: 1 (was a TD run)
San Diego: 1
Minnesota: 0
Detroit: 2 (not counting Stafford kneel down)
KC: 1
Oakland: 0
Seattle: 0
Arizona: 0
GB: 1 (ended in TD)

I mean, this is crazy. You want an explanation, ask someone else. For some nutty reason, teams are simply not running against the Bears when they get inside the 10 yard line. There have only been SEVEN running plays called inside the 10 against the Bears all season, and two of those ended in TDs.

If opposing teams ever figure this out, it will not be good.

 

[Bearaholic]

What are the TD ratios?


Total yards?

Rankings?



This Defense is better. This Defense is keeping teams out of the endzone. Last two years' D's were giving up a ton of points.


Stats are cool, but points are what matter most, to me, at least.

They held Aaron Rodgers to his worst game at Lambeau....I'd say they are getting better