IF this continues ...

[JohnU]

At the current pace, if the NL-C season continues this way, the records would be:

WLB's 105-57
Redlegs 97-65
Parrots 96-66
Broo-Hoos 65-97
Wigglys 65-97

Houston would win 53 games, Miami would win 48.

 

[Redsfan1507]

Schedules have been easier than they will be for Reds/Cardinals, Pirates , some others. Unfortunately we won't get to play 60% of games against sub .500 teams all year. IMO, there are only a few real teams in the NL though...Cardinals, Reds, Braves, Giants, D-Backs and possibly a Nationals comeback. I don't think the Pirates, Phillies, Dodgers or Rockies are for real, but might trip up a few contenders in close races. Cardinals might win 100 but still believe the Pirates & Rockies are 81-83 win teams when it's all done.

 

[JohnU]

It would be mathematically difficult for the standings to end up this way. It's all about current W-L percentages but since there are a lot of intra-divisional games ahead, what are the odds they will be an even split? Milwaukee will probably dump players but I don't see who they have to dump. Maybe Carlos Gomez. Not much else.

The Cubs are just going to get worse. They might find a way to move Soriano. I would like the Reds to take a stab at DeJesus, who is a free agent in November. Honestly, I prefer DeJesus over Billy Hamilton, at least until Ham shows he can hit a baseball.


I have to believe the Parrots will struggle to score runs and they're all wet in the panties over Cole's first start. I remind them of Von McDaniel. Losing Wandy won't hurt them. Getting McDonald back won't help them. They might burn out Melancon and Grilli by August. That's been discussed. Honestly, I think the Parrots pitching is really overrated.

Birds have way too many young pitchers but their run production will make that an easier transition. Unless they can be cooled off, which I don't see as likely, they are on a pace to sew it up by the middle of September. Westbrook won't find a good fit if he returns healthy. Wacha and Miller are getting by with offense behind them. Rosenthal is better as a closer than Mujica is.

 

[Redsfan1507]

If there is eventually some real suspension of PED losers, the Brewers may get hurt the worst because of Braun. The Yankees would benefit from A-Rod suspension, and Cervelli (sp) wouldn't make much difference, apparently Robby Cano has special overlook status from the Pope and Bud Selig. Colon can be replaced at his salary in the As organization. Grandal and Melky have already served time.

I think ALL rebuilds of teams have to start with young pitching, and I don't believe the Brewers, Cubs or any team is serious until they have that. In that regard, a team like the Phillies may be handicapped by an aging under contract rotation. The Yankees and Redsox have shown how blowing your payroll on hitters and forgetting the farm and specifically pitching, can hamstring a team. That theory might be a factor in bit re-signing Arroyo for the Reds. The Cardinals are consistently tough because they can reach into the farm regularly for answers.

 

[Redsfan1507]

Speaking of Cano, wouldn't it suck to see him sign with the Cards ? They have about a quarter of a Billion they didn't spend on Pujols, Berkman and Carpenter, you know. There are only so many places for a contract like his to go. The Nationals also have some spare payroll.

 

[JohnU]

I think the Cards will probably be in a position to build their corner outfielders from the farm. For the short term, they really only need to find catching depth and some bullpen stability. That isn't real difficult for the time being. I think they see Matt Adams as their 1B, which moves Craig to RF.

 

[Redsfan1507]

Cano in SF ? Is LA out of money ? Will he stay in NY ?

 

[JohnU]

NYY would be fairly dumb to not sign Cano. It's not like they are going to fall into last place.

 

[JohnU]

I do think that there are those who perceive we bitch too much about this sort of thing.
Maybe, but there's no reason that -- as fans -- we can't expect something even better than we get. I have zero problem sweeping a series as opposed to taking 2 out of 3. Really, winning 100 games is way more fun than winning 90.

Reducing the number of mistakes is something I have a right to anticipate with a team that is billed to be one of the best in MLB. Currently, I think the record suggests our heroes are better than most teams. Already knew that. Want to be better than the rest of them as well.

 

[Redsfan1507]

Me too. I hate settling for less than the talent on the field is capable of. I think it's the talent in the dugout that's costing us taking 2 of 3 instead of 1 of 3 in series against good teams. The playoffs are ALL those kinds of teams. Players COULD have made up for the 3 dugout gaffes in the 3 playoff home losses, but why should they be EXPECTED to ? if you have a 30 error shortstop that costs you 12 games a year, why WOULDN'T you look at a change, or at least moving him to a position less likely to harm you as much ? Why is a manager different ? Maybe he isn't- they just can't decide on who is a better one... or someone is pressuring them NOT to find one...or maybe, being "competitive" is the real goal, and the WS would just be whipped cream on the sundae ?

Don't get me wrong, I appreciate where the Reds are vs. where they've been half a decade ago, but do I have to settle for embarrassing ourselves with tactical stupidity in the playoffs just so we don't hurt Dusty's feelings by hiring a manager that won't make a mistake a game the talent had to overcome to win ?

 

[chico ruiz]

yankees haven't forgotten the farm or pitching 1507. do you really think an organization like the yankees would not have the wherewithal, and managerial talent, to see and develop young talent? hughes, phelps, warren, robertson, claiborne, and chamberlain are all from the yankee organization. they also have a half dozen pitchers in the minors who are near major league ready. don't fall for all the popular mid-country stereotypes that are applied to the evil empire. they are not all true, or even remotely accurate, in some cases.

 

[Redsfan1507]

Not at all. In fact, it's the high payroll roster that most often blocks NY farmhands. The Yankees aren't famous for developing pitchers though. They have fewer financial constraints than smaller teams, but still DO sacrifice funding elsewhere with a huge MLB payroll. The opposite is also true- many bad teams draft well, but trade away better talent than they keep.

The Redsox (and specifically Theo Epstein's team) are more guilty about forgetting pitching than the NYY, but really, after Sabathia, who's a stud SP for the Yankees ?

 

[chico ruiz]

cc's era is +4.00 and he's adapting to less velocity. kuroda has very good off-speed stuff in general, with plus movement on his fastball. they still have pineda, and nova licking their respective wounds, but getting closer to returns. nuno looked good against mlb line-ups. here's a better question: what teams have a 'stud' SP? what teams have two? do the reds have one of these mythical beasts? better yet, do they exist, at all, anymore?

 

[Redsfan1507]

Wow...Cueto, Bailey qualify u think. Leake is sporting an ERA under 3.00. Chapman was a Reds first signee to name a few. The Cards have several. The Marlins, Rays and S
A's produce lots if pitchers. Yeah, they DO exist, even without trading for them in mid career, I think.

 

[chico ruiz]

i think you misunderstand mr. 1507, and it really highlights how much the game has changed in a relatively short time. i'm talking mickey lolich type stud: 1971 / 376 innings pitched / 29 complete games / 308 K's. i'm talking bob gibson '68' type numbers: 1.12 ERA / 305 innings pitched / 28 complete games. those are just two off the top of my head. nolan ryan has recently tried to buck this trend; to no avail or success. but, he belongs on the aforementioned list. he pitched over 300 innings in a couple seasons with california and had 25+ complete games in each season. also, almost K'd 400 batters. yeah, that's my definition of a ++starting pitcher. but, on the other hand this is 2013, and i also know there's no affirmative action either.

 

[chico ruiz]

this an older article, but i think it's worth a read. it sheds some light on a common misperception often represented on this board.

Baseball Prospectus | Prospectus Q&A: Terry Reynolds

 

[JohnU]

this an older article, but i think it's worth a read. it sheds some light on a common misperception often represented on this board.

Baseball Prospectus | Prospectus Q&A: Terry Reynolds

The report is obviously a couple of years old but it illustrates how quickly the spotlight can shift.
I agree with the comment that you can only teach guys about hitting to contact until they have to do it on their own.

HOW-EV-ER ... I watch the Cardinals and they DO NOT strike out 19 times in a game against mediocre pitching. THAT JUST DOES NOT NEED TO HAPPEN.

 

[Redsfan1507]

You need to understand that an interview about current minor leaguers is always about 90 % PR campaign. No one is going to say, "he was a mistake" or " we can't figure out why this guy can't hit" or "that guy sucks on D"...they're ALL going to contribute. Sure they are. Joey Votto gas put up better numbers in MLB than in minors, but it's almost never the case. The Reds "developed" Stubbs contact rate ? Hamiltons glove ? Janish is the guy ?

Chico, I thought we were discussing the home grown pitching "studs" of modern day teams, not ancient 300 innings guys. I don't know the metrics, but not many of the Yankees star pitchers are home grown. Rivera yes, but sorry Joba isn't a stud. He's a situational reliever. Nova ? Wow. Travis Wood would be a Reds counter. The Yankees are famous for homegrown Captains, but buying most other stars. It's all about winning, they don't care how you do it. I wish the Refs had $100 mil more to spend, if they did, maybe they could buy enough hitters for Dusty to win a post season series more often than once a career.

 

[JohnU]

I need to assert that "home grown" is one thing in baseball but the fact that the Yanks were able to sign those guys and KEEP them is directly related to their financial ability to hang onto their talent. Some teams signed young talent only to watch it disappear into free agency when the time came. It's more than just finding good free agents. Very few FA's left the Yanks to sign with the Royals.

I did think the article was interesting to see how players were evaluated at the time and what they actually ended up being just three years later.

 

[Redsfan1507]

It's not just FA the Tankees sign. They trade for players others won't be able to sign, too. They raise the salary and payroll bar. If it weren't for Steinbrenner, the average MLB salary ( and I suspect ticket prices) would be considerably lower...and IMO, if they affected PEDs in no other way, the Yankees created the biggest financial motivation for using them...and coincidentally or not, they signed quite a few rousers themselves.