Ideal Situation heading into Playoffs

[DallasMCRSdynasty]

1. We need to win out or do what it takes while resting key players (at a smaller scale than yesterday) to get the #2 seed. We control our own destiny and there's no reason why Holland/Lewis/Harrison can't go full games. I have no problem with letting CJ go just 3 innings and let the back end bullpen pitch out the rest of that game.

2. Hope that Boston/Tampa Bay are tied and forced into a 1 game play off, which forces those two teams to use either Beckett/Lester or Price/Shields (ideal), so they're pushed back to game 4/5 in a potential series.

 

[kennyt12]

1. We need to win out or do what it takes while resting key players (at a smaller scale than yesterday) to get the #2 seed. We control our own destiny and there's no reason why Holland/Lewis/Harrison can't go full games. I have no problem with letting CJ go just 3 innings and let the back end bullpen pitch out the rest of that game.

2. Hope that Boston/Tampa Bay are tied and forced into a 1 game play off, which forces those two teams to use either Beckett/Lester or Price/Shields (ideal), so they're pushed back to game 4/5 in a potential series.

I hadn't thought about the tie scenerio but I like it. Hopefully Boston would come out on top because I'd rather face them.

 

[fordman84]

I want the standings just the way they are. DET at NYY and then BOS at Tex. I love our chances against either BOS or TPA, but would rather face BOS right now. We got TPA last year, would rather face someone else this year. And at home would help as well.

 

[Windingmywatch]

I want the standings just the way they are. DET at NYY and then BOS at Tex. I love our chances against either BOS or TPA, but would rather face BOS right now. We got TPA last year, would rather face someone else this year. And at home would help as well.

The WC tie scenario must be giving MLB fits right now ... because it is possible for BOS, TBR, and LAA all to tie for the WC.

If BOS is swept @ BAL, TBR takes 1 of 3 from NYY, and LAA sweeps TEX then all three finish with identical 89 - 73 records. Breaking a three way tie is as you might imagine ... complex: See Resolution of ties in division races - BR Bullpen.

Bottom line ranking amongst clubs in a thee-way tie is: TBR, BOS, LAA. TBR gets first choice of being Club A, Club B, or Club C ... with BOS getting second pick of the two remaining club designations ... and LAA would get whichever designation is remaining. Then:

"Club"A" shall play Club "B" at the ballpark of Club "A" on the day after the season was scheduled to end. The following day, the winner of the first game shall be the home Club in a second game, against Club "C." The winner of the game between Club"C" and the Club that won the game between Club"A" and Club"B" shall be declared the Division Champion[ or wild card]. "

A two team tie would force BOS to fly from BAL to TBR for a one game playoff at TBR (who is at home hosting NYY) ... and then have to fly to TEX (or DET) for the first ALDS game.

If it is a 3-way WC tie I suspect the TBR would choose to be Team A ... and BOS would choose to be Team C ... which would force LAA to fly to TBR for a one game matchup with TBR on Thu ... with the winner facing BOS on Fri. A three way AL WC playoff will push the ALDS back to the same schedule as the NLDS ... and the TV guys will go nuts. No way will the NL teams agree to move forward a day.

This is going to be very entertaining next three days.

 

[Hambombs]

The WC tie scenario must be giving MLB fits right now ... because it is possible for BOS, TBR, and LAA all to tie for the WC.

If BOS is swept @ BAL, TBR takes 1 of 3 from NYY, and LAA sweeps TEX then all three finish with identical 89 - 73 records. Breaking a three way tie is as you might imagine ... complex: See Resolution of ties in division races - BR Bullpen.

Bottom line ranking amongst clubs in a thee-way tie is: TBR, BOS, LAA. TBR gets first choice of being Club A, Club B, or Club C ... with BOS getting second pick of the two remaining club designations ... and LAA would get whichever designation is remaining. Then:

"Club"A" shall play Club "B" at the ballpark of Club "A" on the day after the season was scheduled to end. The following day, the winner of the first game shall be the home Club in a second game, against Club "C." The winner of the game between Club"C" and the Club that won the game between Club"A" and Club"B" shall be declared the Division Champion[ or wild card]. "

A two team tie would force BOS to fly from BAL to TBR for a one game playoff at TBR (who is at home hosting NYY) ... and then have to fly to TEX (or DET) for the first ALDS game.

If it is a 3-way WC tie I suspect the TBR would choose to be Team A ... and BOS would choose to be Team C ... which would force LAA to fly to TBR for a one game matchup with TBR on Thu ... with the winner facing BOS on Fri. A three way AL WC playoff will push the ALDS back to the same schedule as the NLDS ... and the TV guys will go nuts. No way will the NL teams agree to move forward a day.

This is going to be very entertaining next three days.

That won't happen if we win today just sayin

 

[Ginger]

Winding, not sure about the presumed choices. If a team chose to be team A they get to host 2 play-in games; however, team C only has to play and win 1 game. In baseball, I think it is easier to win 1 game on the road than 2 at home. Just speaking of random odds team C has a .5 probability of being the WC while team A and team B would have a .25 probability. Depending upon how you allow for home field advantage I think Team C has the greatest probability of winning the WC, team A would have the 2nd best opportunity and team B would be the most unlikely.

Team A: 1/2 * 1/2 = 1/4
Team B: 1/2 * 1/2 = 1/4
Team C: 1/2

If you weighted home field advantage as 10% which I think is high you'd be looking at something like this:

Team A: .6 * .6 = .36
Team B: .4 * .6 = .24
Team C: .40

Now if you believe home field advantage is really worth more than 10% then the math becomes meaningful to be team A; however, in my opinion in the 3 team playoff scenario you should always be team C and only have to play 1 game featuring your top pitcher if possible. We haven't even discussed the ramifications of being team A or B and not being able to feature their ace for both games.

 

[robhea67]

Your so smart ginger. Team c does have the advantage.

 

[fordman84]

Winding, not sure about the presumed choices. If a team chose to be team A they get to host 2 play-in games; however, team C only has to play and win 1 game. In baseball, I think it is easier to win 1 game on the road than 2 at home. Just speaking of random odds team C has a .5 probability of being the WC while team A and team B would have a .25 probability. Depending upon how you allow for home field advantage I think Team C has the greatest probability of winning the WC, team A would have the 2nd best opportunity and team B would be the most unlikely.

Team A: 1/2 * 1/2 = 1/4
Team B: 1/2 * 1/2 = 1/4
Team C: 1/2

If you weighted home field advantage as 10% which I think is high you'd be looking at something like this:

Team A: .6 * .6 = .36
Team B: .4 * .6 = .24
Team C: .40

Now if you believe home field advantage is really worth more than 10% then the math becomes meaningful to be team A; however, in my opinion in the 3 team playoff scenario you should always be team C and only have to play 1 game featuring your top pitcher if possible. We haven't even discussed the ramifications of being team A or B and not being able to feature their ace for both games.

Not to mention that teams A or B would then have to put their #2 against team C's #1.


Now that I got to the bottom of your post, you did mention that. DOH

 

[Windingmywatch]

Winding, not sure about the presumed choices. If a team chose to be team A they get to host 2 play-in games; however, team C only has to play and win 1 game. In baseball, I think it is easier to win 1 game on the road than 2 at home. Just speaking of random odds team C has a .5 probability of being the WC while team A and team B would have a .25 probability. Depending upon how you allow for home field advantage I think Team C has the greatest probability of winning the WC, team A would have the 2nd best opportunity and team B would be the most unlikely.

Team A: 1/2 * 1/2 = 1/4
Team B: 1/2 * 1/2 = 1/4
Team C: 1/2

If you weighted home field advantage as 10% which I think is high you'd be looking at something like this:

Team A: .6 * .6 = .36
Team B: .4 * .6 = .24
Team C: .40

Now if you believe home field advantage is really worth more than 10% then the math becomes meaningful to be team A; however, in my opinion in the 3 team playoff scenario you should always be team C and only have to play 1 game featuring your top pitcher if possible. We haven't even discussed the ramifications of being team A or B and not being able to feature their ace for both games.

Ginger ... Good points. I was just proud to have found the reference for what to do with a three-team WC playoff! But you are right. TBR would logically pick to be Team C ... then BOS would certainly choose being Team A forcing LAA to face them first. BOS has the superior season record over LAA ... and TBR has the superior record over BOS. That sequence like you suggest neutralizes LAA-TBR 4-4 season tie and would force the winner of elimination game 1 to use its second choice pitcher in the WC game against TBR.

I think though as hambonbs noted ... after tonight it could all be a mute point. By game time in Anaheim tonight BOS may have eliminated LAA with a win in BAL.

I think HFA means something now that TEX has it ... and is going to take it hard especially in the first game of the series to eliminate LAA itself. With DET playing 2 hours ahead of it vs CLE TEX will know what they need to do ... so might as well sweep LAA to nail down the lid on the coffin.

 

[Al Falfa]

Ginger ... Good points. I was just proud to have found the reference for what to do with a three-team WC playoff! But you are right. TBR would logically pick to be Team C ... then BOS would certainly choose being Team A forcing LAA to face them first. BOS has the superior season record over LAA ... and TBR has the superior record over BOS. That sequence like you suggest neutralizes LAA-TBR 4-4 season tie and would force the winner of elimination game 1 to use its second choice pitcher in the WC game against TBR.

I think though as hambonbs noted ... after tonight it could all be a mute point. By game time in Anaheim tonight BOS may have eliminated LAA with a win in BAL.

I think HFA means something now that TEX has it ... and is going to take it hard especially in the first game of the series to eliminate LAA itself. With DET playing 2 hours ahead of it vs CLE TEX will know what they need to do ... so might as well sweep LAA to nail down the lid on the coffin.

I wish Wash saw it like the rest of us. Unfortunately, he's managing to have players rested and not for HFA. With CJ only scheduled to go 45 pitches or so, the BP will have to shine tonight.

 

[kennyt12]

I wish Wash saw it like the rest of us. Unfortunately, he's managing to have players rested and not for HFA. With CJ only scheduled to go 45 pitches or so, the BP will have to shine tonight.

I'm sorry but CJ is only throwing 45 pitches so he won't be worn down on Friday! Would you rather him throw 110 pitches and then go on short rest on Friday? Friday is far more important than Monday. Wash is making the right decision. Now if he doesn that with the rest of the staff then I'd be pissed because they'll have full rest.

Ron is making the right move!

 

[kennyt12]

Oh and as far as the 3 way tie goes, I think the Angels will be out of it before our game starts. Red Sox beat the O's then we get to play 3 meaningless games for the Angels. Maybe they'll throw a young guy or two against us!

 

[Stinky Britches]

Ginger ... Good points. I was just proud to have found the reference for what to do with a three-team WC playoff! But you are right. TBR would logically pick to be Team C ... then BOS would certainly choose being Team A forcing LAA to face them first. BOS has the superior season record over LAA ... and TBR has the superior record over BOS. That sequence like you suggest neutralizes LAA-TBR 4-4 season tie and would force the winner of elimination game 1 to use its second choice pitcher in the WC game against TBR.

I think though as hambonbs noted ... after tonight it could all be a mute point. By game time in Anaheim tonight BOS may have eliminated LAA with a win in BAL.

I think HFA means something now that TEX has it ... and is going to take it hard especially in the first game of the series to eliminate LAA itself. With DET playing 2 hours ahead of it vs CLE TEX will know what they need to do ... so might as well sweep LAA to nail down the lid on the coffin.

Well, Detroit has Cleveland to dominate, but here's the good news:

Trumbo is done for the season.

On paper, it got a little easier to beat Angels.

 

[kennyt12]

Well, Detroit has Cleveland to dominate, but here's the good news:

Trumbo is done for the season.

On paper, it got a little easier to beat Angels.

What happened to Trumbo. I hate to see any team lose a good young player to injury.

 

[scotsman1948]

What happened to Trumbo. I hate to see any team lose a good young player to injury.

stress fracture in his foot

 

[scotsman1948]

looks like LA is only going thru the motions right now. they know the season is over for them

 

[kennyt12]

The O's just took the lead over Boston. Man, Boston is playing some bad baseball. Looks like they are going to be in a tie with the Rays after today unless something changes.

Tommy "Big Game" Hunter is going for another W! If we wanted a ring he'd let Boston win. haha

 

[Stinky Britches]

Wow. Cleveland has been giving away a metric ton of runs lately.

11-0 Det.

They are no help.

 

[kennyt12]

And the O's are up 6-2 now. Boston sux!

 

[Stinky Britches]

it looks like it could be an alds rematch

boston is now tied with tb