how much is riley worth ?

[Sharkinva]

Fletcher's replacement likely not on Redskins' current roster | Comcast SportsNet Washington

here is a list of guys who can replace riley

add spikes and dane fletcher to the mix as well

some, if not all, would be cheaper

So for $2 million a year you go into the season with two new ILBs instead of having atleast one who is actually a capable player and already knows what the coaches want and expect of him?? And what if either or all of those guys want say $6 million a year?? MAny of you were drooling over the posibility of getting Sean Lee who DID get $7 million a year average despite his injury history. But you dont think Riley is worth that??

 

[j_y19]

$7 MIllion a year is about the going average for a player of Rileys age and performance. For $9 I tell him good luck finding that else where. But many here are saying he isnt worth the Seven. That I disagree with, and I think if we try and lowball him into $5 million a year we lose him

$7m/yr puts him in the Lee/Poslunszy/Dquell Jackson/Demeco Ryans tier. I just don't see him at that level. All of those guys are in the top 10 ILBs. I see him at the next level with the likes of Hawk/Larinitus/D Johnson/Lofton. These guys are in the 3.5-5.5M range. That's where he belongs.

 

[deanpet21]

I agree jy19. Riley is not an elite ILB by no means.

 

[j_y19]

I'd take Lee any day, even with his injury history, over Riley. That guy is a difference maker. Riley is a capable, but not feared, ILB.

 

[Sharkinva]

How is he worth 7? 5 is stretching it. He is an avg to good player nothing special.

He lead the team in tackles, had more passes defenses than any one on the team except Hall and Amerson, had three sacks and an INT. I would say a bit more than average. If anything he was one of the few positives from our defense the last two years, and he and his agent will base their numbers off of market value for a player in his position. The Skins can lowball him if they like, but as I said I expect he gets no worse than $6 million a year, and I expect if he leaves some one else gives him the seven and we go into the season with half the defense being new guys and trying to teach two new starting ILBs what we need

 

[j_y19]

He lead the team in tackles, had more passes defenses than any one on the team except Hall and Amerson, had three sacks and an INT. I would say a bit more than average. If anything he was one of the few positives from our defense the last two years, and he and his agent will base their numbers off of market value for a player in his position. The Skins can lowball him if they like, but as I said I expect he gets no worse than $6 million a year, and I expect if he leaves some one else gives him the seven and we go into the season with half the defense being new guys and trying to teach two new starting ILBs what we need

Well, they will use the Ellerbe contract as their bargaining base. Unfortunately, Ellerbe was overpaid for his production. Who knows, maybe that is now the going rate for tier 2 ILBs. If so, then you pay it. But don't confuse Riley for a tier 1 player, as he is not. Our defense is designed for our ILBs to lead the team in tackles, so I don't put much stock in that stat other than he does his job capably. If Barnett started, he would have either led, or been 2nd, in tackles on this team. I will say that he is a pretty good blitzer and he is adequate at pass coverage. He is a good player, not an elite player. $5M is the current rate for good ILBs.

 

[deanpet21]

Riley started 16 games ,he should of put up those numbers. That would be more of an overpay then Rak at 10 million.

 

[Sharkinva]

Well, they will use the Ellerbe contract as their bargaining base. Unfortunately, Ellerbe was overpaid for his production. Who knows, maybe that is now the going rate for tier 2 ILBs. If so, then you pay it. But don't confuse Riley for a tier 1 player, as he is not. Our defense is designed for our ILBs to lead the team in tackles, so I don't put much stock in that stat other than he does his job capably. If Barnett started, he would have either led, or been 2nd, in tackles on this team. I will say that he is a pretty good blitzer and he is adequate at pass coverage. He is a good player, not an elite player. $5M is the current rate for good ILBs.

Teir one LB are making $8-$10 million a year average, I dont know what numbers you are looking at bro. $7 million a year AVERAGE (key word there) Is not that huge considering there will be incentives built into the deal as well. Like i said, if they gave him a f year $35 million deal with $10 MIllion of it garunteed and the first three years being cap hits of $3 million, $5 and $5 respectively, Yes his cap number would spike in year four, but thats typically when you look to rework or cut bait on a guy any way. So if we got him for 3 years, with total outlay of $17 million, thats $5.6 million a year in real money. The last two years ar just fluff in NFL deals these days any way.

So a $7 million a year average deal falls right in line with what you guys are preaching actually

 

[Sharkinva]

Riley started 16 games ,he should of put up those numbers. That would be more of an overpay then Rak at 10 million.

Dean.. is there a single frakin player on this team that you think is worth even a market value contract?? Seriously. You think Rak is worth $2 million less, Riley, Hell in two years are you going to be saying RG3 is only worth $40 million??

 

[deanpet21]

Riley at 7 and Rak at 10 are massive overpays. The consistent production is just not there and we are not winning games. I think Garcons' contract was fair.

 

[j_y19]

Teir one LB are making $8-$10 million a year average, I dont know what numbers you are looking at bro. $7 million a year AVERAGE (key word there) Is not that huge considering there will be incentives built into the deal as well. Like i said, if they gave him a f year $35 million deal with $10 MIllion of it garunteed and the first three years being cap hits of $3 million, $5 and $5 respectively, Yes his cap number would spike in year four, but thats typically when you look to rework or cut bait on a guy any way. So if we got him for 3 years, with total outlay of $17 million, thats $5.6 million a year in real money. The last two years ar just fluff in NFL deals these days any way.

So a $7 million a year average deal falls right in line with what you guys are preaching actually

I got my numbers from overthecap.com. If they aren't correct and $7M is the going rate for a Tier 2 ILB, then I'm ok with it for that is what it would cost us to replace him with like production. However, overthecap is usually pretty accurate. According to their data, their are only 6 ILBs that make 8-10M. There are another 5 or so in the 7-8M range, with Sean Lee bringing up the rear at $7M. That is the bottom of tier 1, IMO. Again, I don't feel riley belongs in that league, but then again, neither does Ellerbe and he's in there.

Then there is a clear step down in talent and compensation to the $5M level. It is here that we find Johnson, Lofton, Hawk, and Tulloch. This is where I see Riley.

 

[Sharkinva]

Riley at 7 and Rak at 10 are massive overpays. The consistent production is just not there and we are not winning games. I think Garcons' contract was fair.

Dean we will have to agree to not agree. Because the market on both of these guys is likely to be around $2 million higher than what you personally think they are worth. And realistically to try and lowball them because they didnt have talent around them is hogwash. Based on the contracts we have seen as of late, and what guys who produced LESS than either of them have gotten, the market is already some what set. For what you want to pay them, we are likely to get less production from their respective replacements, not more.

 

[deanpet21]

You never overpay for avg. talent just b/c you fear you cant replace them. If we lose Rak then Van Noy becomes the 2nd round pick and we go from there. If we somehow lose both Riley and Rak it would just mean that we would have more money in FA and next years FA to spend. If Rak gets 10 mil from another team so be it. He is not worth it. If Riley get 7 mil from a team let him go too. I am sick if this organization overpaying for avg talent. I know Rak is not an avg player but 10 mil doesn't do it for me.

 

[j_y19]

Dean, RAK is an above average talent that has potential to be elite. He will get every bit of $10M. In fact, we may have to franchise him at $11M. That's just to going rate for that position.

 

[deanpet21]

Rak has not shown me that he could be an elite player. Why he is worth 10 mil? He is injury prone. He disappears in big games. He has never had a 13-15 sack season. Hopefully we get him for 7 or 8. Danny is probably scared to lose him so a massive overpay might be in the works. By doing this Riley and Hall could be gone. The dark horse FA that must be signed is Baker. Especially if Bowen is cut.

 

[Sharkinva]

I got my numbers from overthecap.com. If they aren't correct and $7M is the going rate for a Tier 2 ILB, then I'm ok with it for that is what it would cost us to replace him with like production. However, overthecap is usually pretty accurate. According to their data, their are only 6 ILBs that make 8-10M. There are another 5 or so in the 7-8M range, with Sean Lee bringing up the rear at $7M. That is the bottom of tier 1, IMO. Again, I don't feel riley belongs in that league, but then again, neither does Ellerbe and he's in there.

Then there is a clear step down in talent and compensation to the $5M level. It is here that we find Johnson, Lofton, Hawk, and Tulloch. This is where I see Riley.

Dude.. .LFB made $5 million and some change last year, Ellerbe's deal from last year is whats going to set the market to a degree for this year. Along with Lee's deal.

 

[Sharkinva]

You never overpay for avg. talent just b/c you fear you cant replace them. If we lose Rak then Van Noy becomes the 2nd round pick and we go from there. If we somehow lose both Riley and Rak it would just mean that we would have more money in FA and next years FA to spend. If Rak gets 10 mil from another team so be it. He is not worth it. If Riley get 7 mil from a team let him go too. I am sick if this organization overpaying for avg talent. I know Rak is not an avg player but 10 mil doesn't do it for me.

And Im sick of this team always figuring we dont want to pay our own, so we let them go only to pay some one else just as much or more to suck. Its a pattern. We need to pay OUR own guys to develop and stop thinking oh we can simply replace some of the guys who actually do produce for us even if it wasnt at all world level. But hell you are right, why dont we just let them all walk. Hell any OLB can produce ten sacks a season for $7 million a year. And 115 tackles... thats just average. YOu are right dean, we can just plug any one in, these guy are not worth half what they want.

 

[j_y19]

Rak has not shown me that he could be an elite player. Why he is worth 10 mil? He is injury prone. He disappears in big games. He has never had a 13-15 sack season. Hopefully we get him for 7 or 8. Danny is probably scared to lose him so a massive overpay might be in the works. By doing this Riley and Hall could be gone. The dark horse FA that must be signed is Baker. Especially if Bowen is cut.

You have to understand that one reason why RAKs sack numbers aren't higher is how he was used in the scheme we ran under shanahan. He dropped back in coverage more than he should and he often had outside contain as his first priority. The result of these schemes meant that he couldn't always pin his ears back and just rush the QB. This does have a material effect on his stats. If we let him focus on rushing the qb as his first priority, i bet he adds 4-6 sacks annually to his total. So If he is a 15 sack a year guy, does that change your opinion?

 

[j_y19]

And Im sick of this team always figuring we dont want to pay our own, so we let them go only to pay some one else just as much or more to suck. Its a pattern. We need to pay OUR own guys to develop and stop thinking oh we can simply replace some of the guys who actually do produce for us even if it wasnt at all world level. But hell you are right, why dont we just let them all walk. Hell any OLB can produce ten sacks a season for $7 million a year. And 115 tackles... thats just average. YOu are right dean, we can just plug any one in, these guy are not worth half what they want.

In the last few years, who have we let walk other than Alexander? Now under vinny/dan, we did it regularly. Maybe Carlos Rogers is the only other one I can think of.

 

[j_y19]

Dude.. .LFB made $5 million and some change last year, Ellerbe's deal from last year is whats going to set the market to a degree for this year. Along with Lee's deal.

That's right, London got 5m and he led the league in tackles the year before. In fact, London was still second on the skins this year in tackles, just a couple behind Riley. That's how our defense is designed.

I do agree that Riley's agent will try and use ellerbes contract as l the basis for their demands. But I don't think it will fly with the skins or with the rest of the league. Ellerbe has not lived up to his contract.