how much is riley worth ?

[Sharkinva]

i dont think anyone we bring in would have trouble making calls . we arent making the playoffs in year one of gruden . we should expect some improvement in the team but again losing riley isnt a big deal

in the end i think we get riley at our price or close to it

Lets look at it like this.

You bring in Spikes and another LB at $6 million a year a piece. You just spent $12 million. Now both their prices are inflated because we have created an extra need due to the fact that we have no ILBs.

Or you keep Riley at $7 million (if thats his price) and you bring in Spikes at $6 any way, possibly $5 because you havent created an undue need by trying to lowball one of your own. You also arent trying to have two guys learn your system at the same time. Less learning curve, likely better over all production. And what makes you think Spikes and others wont be looking for the same $7 million Riley is reported to want?? I tend to think we are much better off keeping him than trying to plug in two new guys. And if the over all difference is $1 million a year, you roll with it.

 

[Sharkinva]

Dont hate fellas, dont hate

Just read and gain some understanding.

Why the Washington Redskins Absolutely Must Re-Sign Perry Riley Jr. | Bleacher Report

 

[gkekoa]

Too many people miss the main problem with our defense...it's the interior OL pass rush.


That's why I'm hoping for Tuitt.

 

[Sleepy T]

Well what he wants and gets are 2 different things. I am with you guys, 7mill is too much. Make him a take it or leave offer of 4-5 million per year with some performance based incentives. If that isn't isn't good enough, then let him test the waters. He is young, good (not great), and improving, I would hate to lose him, but we can't just pay him crazy $$$$ when he has done nothing to warrant that type of contract.

 

[Sharkinva]

Well what he wants and gets are 2 different things. I am with you guys, 7mill is too much. Make him a take it or leave offer of 4-5 million per year with some performance based incentives. If that isn't isn't good enough, then let him test the waters. He is young, good (not great), and improving, I would hate to lose him, but we can't just pay him crazy $$$$ when he has done nothing to warrant that type of contract.

VT.. I just think if you give him a take it or leave it that maxes out at $5 million a year he leaves it. And we are worse off as a team because of it. Im all for bringing in another ILB because we need to. I think bringing in two new ILBs just sets us further back. And if the difference between having him or not is 1-2 million a year, its a no brainer to bring him back. Because having no one in the middle of the defense that KNOWs what the entire defense is supposed to be doing does more harm than good period. And as i have said, if we let him go, we increase the need at ILB, and thus increase the asking price of any one we would bring in accordingly. If I know you got no one to start at ILB, and you are targeting me at that point, why wouldnt I shoot higher than I might normally go for??

 

[gkekoa]

Paying a player twice the amount his skill level is worth is foolish...I don't care if he lost both ILBs and both OLBs...I am not paying twice his value.

 

[Sharkinva]

Paying a player twice the amount his skill level is worth is foolish...I don't care if he lost both ILBs and both OLBs...I am not paying twice his value.

So all of a sudden $7 million a year is twice the value of $5 million a year?? Come on man, you make it seem like we are paying $7 million a year for Biggers production or something. So you would rather pay $6 million a year for two FAs than pay $7 million a year for one of our own?? Really??

 

[j_y19]

So all of a sudden $7 million a year is twice the value of $5 million a year?? Come on man, you make it seem like we are paying $7 million a year for Biggers production or something. So you would rather pay $6 million a year for two FAs than pay $7 million a year for one of our own?? Really??

Shark, while I understand what you are saying, I think what most of us are trying to say is we won't have to pay Riley $7M because he won't get that from anyone else. This argument is all about market value. You believe his value is at $7M and the rest of us believe it is at around $5M. Unfortunately, the only way to truly determine this is to let him test the FA waters. I, for one, am not overly concerned about this if he does because I don't think he gets a sniff at $7M. We have done this numerous times over the last few years and it has never backfired on us. Allen is very good at determine fair market value for players and not panicking if they check out the market. Lorenzo Alexander is the only player that we wanted to keep that left via FA and that had more to do with our cap situation. Having said this, it wouldn't surprise me if they don't reach a deal before FA somewhere in the middle of the two sides ($6m or so).

 

[Sharkinva]

Shark, while I understand what you are saying, I think what most of us are trying to say is we won't have to pay Riley $7M because he won't get that from anyone else. This argument is all about market value. You believe his value is at $7M and the rest of us believe it is at around $5M. Unfortunately, the only way to truly determine this is to let him test the FA waters. I, for one, am not overly concerned about this if he does because I don't think he gets a sniff at $7M. We have done this numerous times over the last few years and it has never backfired on us. Allen is very good at determine fair market value for players and not panicking if they check out the market. Lorenzo Alexander is the only player that we wanted to keep that left via FA and that had more to do with our cap situation. Having said this, it wouldn't surprise me if they don't reach a deal before FA somewhere in the middle of the two sides ($6m or so).

I believe his market value is in the 4.5-6 range actually. But I also believe that you pay your own a little more. And I think by not retaining him, we will have to pay more for the FAs we bring in, and it comes out to say $12 million total to bring in two FA, or we pay Riley a little more and bring in a single FA at $5 million and still pay $12 million total for the two... which situation are we better of in??

 

[j_y19]

I believe his market value is in the 4.5-6 range actually. But I also believe that you pay your own a little more. And I think by not retaining him, we will have to pay more for the FAs we bring in, and it comes out to say $12 million total to bring in two FA, or we pay Riley a little more and bring in a single FA at $5 million and still pay $12 million total for the two... which situation are we better of in??

Your whole argument is predicated on the assumption that we lose him if we don't meet his demands. I don't subscribe to that assumption so your situations are not accurate to me. I also don't necessarily agree that we will have to pay more for FA if we do have to bring any in. If Riley were to sign with another team, that's one less potential buyer for the remaining FAs. Its all about supply and demand. If demand is reduced by by one less buyer, the price for the remaining supply goes down, not up.

I do, however, sympathize with your argument that there is value in continuity with Riley. But not at a 40% premium over even your estimated fair market value of $5M. Again, my guess is they strike a deal above $5m, but well less than $7M and everyone walks away happy.

 

[Sharkinva]

Your whole argument is predicated on the assumption that we lose him if we don't meet his demands. I don't subscribe to that assumption so your situations are not accurate to me. I also don't necessarily agree that we will have to pay more for FA if we do have to bring any in. If Riley were to sign with another team, that's one less potential buyer for the remaining FAs. Its all about supply and demand. If demand is reduced by by one less buyer, the price for the remaining supply goes down, not up.

I do, however, sympathize with your argument that there is value in continuity with Riley. But not at a 40% premium over even your estimated fair market value of $5M. Again, my guess is they strike a deal above $5m, but well less than $7M and everyone walks away happy.

Fact: If we give him a take it or leave it offer and he leaves it, we have basically created our own inflated demand.

Once you have an inflated demand, prices generally do go up, especially on items of limited supply. This is why i think we will have to pay a slightly higher premium on FA's at the position if Riely goes else where. If he is worth $5 to the outside world, he should actually be worth a little more to us if for no other reason than the fact that we dont have to commit time to teaching him the basics of our defensive system and he can assist in teaching the OTHER ILB what is unique to our defense for an ILB.

 

[j_y19]

Fact: If we give him a take it or leave it offer and he leaves it, we have basically created our own inflated demand.

Once you have an inflated demand, prices generally do go up, especially on items of limited supply. This is why i think we will have to pay a slightly higher premium on FA's at the position if Riely goes else where. If he is worth $5 to the outside world, he should actually be worth a little more to us if for no other reason than the fact that we dont have to commit time to teaching him the basics of our defensive system and he can assist in teaching the OTHER ILB what is unique to our defense for an ILB.

See, this is where we differ. Allen has been adept at letting guys test FA but not burning bridges. It doesn't have to be a take it or leave it offer. You can tactfully tell him that we want him on our team but understand that he needs to be aware of his value and that we are at odds at what that is. We value him in the $5M range, but if we are wrong, we are willing to negotiate. Obviously every player is different, and you have to feel him out first. But these guys are much more aware than you or I what this market will bear.

As for Riley's more valuable to us than others, I agreed with this in my earlier post. Its just what that value is worth. Remember, for every extra dollar we spend on Riley over what we needed to, we can't spend it on upgrading one of the numerous other holes we have.

 

[Sharkinva]

See, this is where we differ. Allen has been adept at letting guys test FA but not burning bridges. It doesn't have to be a take it or leave it offer. You can tactfully tell him that we want him on our team but understand that he needs to be aware of his value and that we are at odds at what that is. We value him in the $5M range, but if we are wrong, we are willing to negotiate. Obviously every player is different, and you have to feel him out first. But these guys are much more aware than you or I what this market will bear.

As for Riley's more valuable to us than others, I agreed with this in my earlier post. Its just what that value is worth. Remember, for every extra dollar we spend on Riley over what we needed to, we can't spend it on upgrading one of the numerous other holes we have.

I accept that. But many around here are of the mind set that either he takes 3-5 million or he can go screw himself and is easily replaceable. I on the other hand think that its that sort of thinking which has prevailed in this team being the hot mess that it has been since Dan bought the team. Like I said, I think you pay your own a little better than you would some one elses star. Being willing to pay more to some one coming in than we will for our own is a big part of what is and has been wrong with this team.

 

[j_y19]

I accept that. But many around here are of the mind set that either he takes 3-5 million or he can go screw himself and is easily replaceable. I on the other hand think that its that sort of thinking which has prevailed in this team being the hot mess that it has been since Dan bought the team. Like I said, I think you pay your own a little better than you would some one elses star. Being willing to pay more to some one coming in than we will for our own is a big part of what is and has been wrong with this team.

Honestly, with our lack of talent, there aren't too many on this team that I'd be willing to pay a bit more to keep. Riley, in my mind, is a solid yet unspectacular player that we should try and keep. But there is a point that I would let him go.

There's another school of thought that it's the player that should be offering a home town discount. Although I really can't fathom why any one would want to play here for a discount given how dysfunctional we have been for the last 15 years. This franchise has killed many careers over the years.

 

[Sharkinva]

Honestly, with our lack of talent, there aren't too many on this team that I'd be willing to pay a bit more to keep. Riley, in my mind, is a solid yet unspectacular player that we should try and keep. But there is a point that I would let him go.

There's another school of thought that it's the player that should be offering a home town discount. Although I really can't fathom why any one would want to play here for a discount given how dysfunctional we have been for the last 15 years. This franchise has killed many careers over the years.

Thing is, I think that because the team as a whole has been bad, people dont recognize when guys are actually performing unless it stands out to an all pro level. Whebn you are one of the few actually good players on a team that is otherwise bad, you do tend to get lumped in as either a bad or an average player in most cases. As far as the home town discount thing is concerned, I think any guy that does that is simply dumb. You take $1 million less and the team hits a bad spot, they are still just as likely to release you or ask you to take a bigger pay cut a few years down the road any way.

 

[skinz2winz]

Agreed Spikes could fill in for one if the other was still there. I just think you guys are under valueing Riley in that he already knows the defensive calls where as two new ILBs means basically they are both learning on the fly. If we keep Riley and bring in Spikes as the other ILB, Im all for it. But if we bring in two FA lbs at a cost of $10 million combined, or we could have kept Riley and brought in one FA at a cost of $12 million combined. Short and long term I think the $2 million will more than make up for the fact that we SHOULDNT then have the early to mid season glitches that come with no one currently on the field being quite sure what the coaches want and expect. Riley should bring that and I honestly think when all is said and done, that $2 million would be eaten up any way because the two FAs we bring in will cost a little extra based on the fact that without Riley, we have NO ILBs under contract worthy of starting.

We are NOT bringing in 2 FA ILB's so, your bone of contention about costing $12M in FA is way off. Spikes, Robinson, Kehl & a draft pick likely cost us less than $7M. I'm hoping the draft pick comes in the early rounds (2-3) and is the starter next to Spikes. If Riley accepts $3.5-4M then he stays and starts and we still draft an ILB. Either way, you are putting too much emphasis on KNOWING the system, making calls etc... This is football, not rocket science and if MS had the say on defense last year as some have suggested, Haslett will put his stamp on the structure of the defense along with verbiage this year anyways.

The whole point is Riley is not worth anymore than a mid level type ILB would command. He has yet to take the next step in his progression and quite honestly, I don't think he will. Reminds me of Pierce and he remained fairly average after a big pay day from the G-Men.

 

[gkekoa]

So all of a sudden $7 million a year is twice the value of $5 million a year?? Come on man, you make it seem like we are paying $7 million a year for Biggers production or something. So you would rather pay $6 million a year for two FAs than pay $7 million a year for one of our own?? Really??

I don't consider him worth 5 mil/season. I barely consider him worth 4 mil/season. I believe his value is 3 to 3.5 mil/season...so double.

I'm not sure what you are referring to in the last two sentences. Where did I say pay 6 mil to two different players? Under your statement, we would pay 13 mil for Riley and another.

RAK is far better than Riley and people are hesitant to pay him 8 to 10 mil on here. It really makes no sense that you are condoning 7 mil for Riley.

 

[Sharkinva]

I don't consider him worth 5 mil/season. I barely consider him worth 4 mil/season. I believe his value is 3 to 3.5 mil/season...so double.

I'm not sure what you are referring to in the last two sentences. Where did I say pay 6 mil to two different players? Under your statement, we would pay 13 mil for Riley and another.

RAK is far better than Riley and people are hesitant to pay him 8 to 10 mil on here. It really makes no sense that you are condoning 7 mil for Riley.

I think you seriously under value Riley at $3 million. As i have stated, I also think by not signing him, you drive up our need for ILBs and thus also drive up what we will pay for two ILBs to replace Riley and Fletcher. As I have said, I think Riley is more worth the $4-6 million range and I would kick it to $7 based on the fact that you do take care of your own. I also think, as our need would be less at the position, the likelyhood of us needing to over pay for some one elses free agent goes down.

So we Pay Riley $7, which i admit might be a little more than his worth, but we then dont end up paying $6 million for some one elses free agent that we should get for $5 million. We still end up paying $12 million for the two positions combined, but are in a better position because we dont then have two people trying to fit into our system.

As far as Rak, again I think people under value him as well. BUt Im starting to get used to us undervaluing our own guys, but being willing to pay what it takes to bring in some one elses free agents for us to complain we over paid.

 

[skinsdad62]

Lets look at it like this.

You bring in Spikes and another LB at $6 million a year a piece. You just spent $12 million. Now both their prices are inflated because we have created an extra need due to the fact that we have no ILBs.

Or you keep Riley at $7 million (if thats his price) and you bring in Spikes at $6 any way, possibly $5 because you havent created an undue need by trying to lowball one of your own. You also arent trying to have two guys learn your system at the same time. Less learning curve, likely better over all production. And what makes you think Spikes and others wont be looking for the same $7 million Riley is reported to want?? I tend to think we are much better off keeping him than trying to plug in two new guys. And if the over all difference is $1 million a year, you roll with it.

i dont see spikes getting a 600% raise shark and you act like i got to go and get 2 expensive ilbs i dont . i think dane fletcher can do everything riley does and he can be had for about 3 mil spikes maybe 4 and of course we do have a draft pick

and besides haslett sgould be able to coach him up despite his mediocre coaching career numbers

but as i have sais like 4 times now i think we get riley at our price

 

[skinsdad62]

I believe a lot of Rak's success is b/c of Kerrigan. His best year was when he was a 4-3 De with Haynesworth. To commit that much money for him you have to be damn well sure he is a top sacker in the NFL and he is not. Look at Jason Worlids for example. Can he be just as effective for half the price. I think so. I just think Rak has always been over hyped. Don't worry guys he will be overpaid b/c the Skins are afraid too lose him. They have no balls. I just don't think he is a 10 million dollar player like Matthews and Suggs. Don't get me wrong I want him back but at the right price.

dean for the love of god RAK has been an outside linebacker his hole professional career . he was never a regular de in any scheme daniels and carter ring a bell ?

also if kerrigan was a key factor in raks success why didnt it show up last season with jackson ?