Holding back on offense

[leomaz]

Obviously, all QBs miss open guys. The point i am making is that yes, he misses more than the average. It is not a new problem. However, I am wondering how much of the issue this year is Jay, and how much of it is Gase. It is possible that in tamping down Cutler, Gase dialed him back a little TOO much. I don't know the answer here...obviously you don't want to take the brakes fully off Cutler. It is nice that he has cut down on the interceptions. But it seems like somewhere between that Jay and this Jay, there is an optimum.

I don't think there is an easy answer here, but if you want to understand where the offense is not at full speed, it starts with that.

What is the average? Have you watched all QB's on every play to come up with an average? It's very interesting because Rodgers looked average on Sunday night

 

[blh7068]

How about this...if the Bears had an explosive rusher, that inherently helps the passing game. I love Forte, because he does a lot of things well...but he really is closer to pedestrian when it comes to running the football. Yes- I do question how much opposing defenses respect the running game.

 

[cubzzzfanincali]

What is the average? Have you watched all QB's on every play to come up with an average? It's very interesting because Rodgers looked average on Sunday night

I don't have a numeric statistic, but here's the closest I can do to that based on my impression. I would say the typical QB has an available open receiver that they do not throw to on a play that they otherwise have no other good option about once every 5 or so passes they make. In other words, they are forcing a pass, taking a sack, dump it on a checkdown, throw out of bounds, etc about once every five pass attempts. It is not uncommon. Again, that's not a hard statistic, it's just my estimate. So, over the course of a game, your typical average NFL QB does this maybe 6 or 7 times a game. Elite QBs maybe do this about 4 or 5 times a game.

This varies, of course, depending on the opponent. QBs playing the Bears do this less than those playing the Seahawks, or a better example this year would be the Rams. But on the whole, I'd say that's about the frequency.

In my opinion, I'd say Cutler does this more like once every 3 or 4 passes or so, or about 10 or 11 times a game. In the first half of Sunday's game, I saw like several plays like this, I'd guess about 6. His most common mistakes have typically been taking sacks or throwing the short bailout route when he has an open guy downfield. Here is one thing that has changed this year. He has, definitely, held the ball more or made the more conservative pass in exchange for fewer interceptions. But he has always checked down too much, last year this was a chronic problem of his. So yes Forte accumulated good stats, but Cutler missed an excessive number of downfield shots as the cost of this. You simply can't see this by watching the network feed. It's no one's fault, it just isn't on TV.

Yes, Rodgers played badly this week. He also threw 0 nterceptions. You know what it reminded me of? Clausen's performance against Seattle. Now, obviously Rodgers doesn't suck, but the difference is that no one was open. This is a huge distinction. He did force a couple of throws, but not very much. He ate a lot of it. This is, by the way, why I found so much of the criticism of Clausen after the Seattle game to be so nosebleedingly stupid. Sure, Clausen probably sucks. But you would have NO WAY OF EVALUATING THAT BY WATCHING THE SEATTLE GAME. None. Seattle completely blanketed our receivers like Denver did to Green Bay the other night. So whining about Clausen after that game just struck me, err....strikes me...as nothing more than an admission that you know nothing about watching NFL football. I mean that "you" in the collective sense, not you personally.

 

[blh7068]

But he has always checked down too much, last year this was a chronic problem of his. So yes Forte accumulated good stats, but Cutler missed an excessive number of downfield shots as the cost of this.

I dont know about that, Cali. As body of work, yes, Cutler misses more targets than we'd like to see, no doubt. Last year however, I do believe a lot of the checkdowns to Forte was a product 2 things- 1- The inefficiency/predictability of the run game. Forte averaged something like 3.8-3.9 ypc. This lead to 2- the not so speedy receiving targets of AJ, Bennett, and Marshall really struggling at times to get open/get over the top of the secondary. As a result, Cutler more often than not took what was available to him- which was the checkdown to Forte. Last year, Cutler had a low YPA but a high completion pct. That relationship doesnt correlate with missing downfield excessively.

 

[cubzzzfanincali]

That's an interesting argument. I'd like to ask you further. I don't think YPA and completion pct can tell you much about "missed open guys downfield", but if you are saying the guys simply weren't open downfield, I would have to plead ignorance. I know I developed this impression last year but I have no way of re-evaluating it. So if I take your point, you are saying the fact that the run game got predictable led to a lot of long third downs, and then the result was a lot of obvious passes in coverage heavy sets. Right? I wouldn't necessarily disagree. But Cutler DID challenge those coverages. Some of his more famous turnovers came in those situations. I don't know the number offhand. But my gut says that too many of his checkdowns wee happening on 2nd downs, not 3rd downs.

Anyone else have a take on this?

 

[blh7068]

I don't think YPA and completion pct can tell you much about "missed open guys downfield"

It doesnt....but thats not what I said... The relationship suggests hes wasnt throwing it downfield, i.e. its derived from the number of chances taken- not who was missed among those chances that youre referring to.

I concluded the reason for that was what I said in my previous posts. Little in the way of a run game isnt going to keep defenses honest. If the tape shows teams can contain the run with the front seven, the secondary can play further off the LOS without the need to cheat up for run support. Then when the obvious passing situations come up- and they do when a team cant run effectively- those three not so speedy guys are going to struggle beating the secondary, moreso if an unfavorable down and distance was created. Now the secondary is in really favorable position to keep the play in front of them in those situations.

Theres two ways he was 'missing' guys- either by throwing and missing his target on those limited attempts(very possible), or his targets are getting open downfield often and hes opting not to throw it(which I doubt).

However, his misses are not coming from taking excessive shots downfield- a low ypa and high completion pct just doesnt support that.

 

[noonthirtyjoe]

I was taking it as Cali saying Jay is not looking downfield this season because Gase has him thinking safe. So that would be a this year thing.

 

[leomaz]

While at the game you see open receivers for the Bears once in a while.....nothing like we see for the other team

 

[anotheridiot]

I dont know about that, Cali. As body of work, yes, Cutler misses more targets than we'd like to see, no doubt. Last year however, I do believe a lot of the checkdowns to Forte was a product 2 things- 1- The inefficiency/predictability of the run game. Forte averaged something like 3.8-3.9 ypc. This lead to 2- the not so speedy receiving targets of AJ, Bennett, and Marshall really struggling at times to get open/get over the top of the secondary. As a result, Cutler more often than not took what was available to him- which was the checkdown to Forte. Last year, Cutler had a low YPA but a high completion pct. That relationship doesnt correlate with missing downfield excessively.

Did you really take Marshall as struggling to get open? He was hardly ever open, which I constantly called, stop, shield, jump, receive. His YAC were low because he was usually covered by two or three guys by the time the ball got there. They were fine till they had their disagreement on accepting blame. Most of the check downs to Forte were late in the season when Marshall was too hurt to continue. Its my same broken record, receivers stop, Cuter makes throws right in their range. Moving targets has never been cutlers strong point. Even when we had Hester, he was either stopping, catching or leaping catching on those stupid bubble screens, those passes need to be in stride. The throw like he made to Jeffrey last game are few and far between.

 

[JoeyTourettes]

I know Cali and I don't see eye-to-eye... but his whole argument of Cutler (OR ANY QB) missing open receivers isn't quantifiable as a fan. It's very easy to see an all-22 film from an elevated angle, slow it down/speed it up, rewatch...etc. AND point out an "open" guy somewhere. I'm sure that anyone could do this for every NFL QB. And sure...some will have more then others. The main reasons this argument isn't quantifiable is:

1. You don't know the play call. What is the read? What is the defensive alignment they were expecting vs what they got on that particular play? When looking at an all-22 view (*I'm not sure what Cali is seeing or what his definition of "open" is when he tallies up his numbers...) but I'm going to assume he's counting the backside fade "clear out" route that wasn't a part of the read progression or a 4th option. 99% of the time a QB is going to have ONE or TWO keys they are to read. And that's all the time they will have anyway... Then DUMP it off to the RB. Get + yards=good play.
2. Oline protection- While that "one guy" might have been open down the seam... could the QB see him? Was there a half step more of penetration into the backfield with a hand up? That DLman didn't make a play on the ball or even touch the QB but he disrupted the view (*this goes to the angle of the All-22 angle) Sure you watching that film can see "him" open...but the 6'3" QB with the 6'5" Olineman and 300 lb Dline in front of him simply can't. Check down/throw away.
3. WR Route Timing- Ideally the offense is running smoothly and everyone is on the same page... Deep routes take longer to develop. MOST of the time those are later reads in the play progression. Unless the team is specifically targeting a particular deep route... the first read will dictate the ball thrown earlier, and shorter (defenses WANT you do to that) While one beat later that Deep route WR might have a step on his guy, but the decision has already been made and the ball is already gone. This is also very evident on long crossing routes. A WR in the slot on the backside of the field on a 12 yard crossing route (#3 or 4 option) QB is reading a corner high/low combo on the front side. That backside route will come into play later than the first combo option. That guy might be open in the middle of the field, but the QB is focused on his read! and that crossing route takes awhile to get there- getting through "the soup" of LB's and Safeties. ALSO if he deviates from his route or gets rerouted by a step, his timing is off from when the QB would look for him. QB comes off read...throws it away/checks it down. Then cross comes open. (checked box for "missed open receiver"?)

I want to be clear- I'm saying this as a QB... not a Cutler defender. I also firmly believe that it's just human nature to justify your prejudged belief. If you believe "Jay Cutler" misses open receivers...you're going to see that or see it that way. Than you will write posts on message boards to try and convince people of your belief. IF you believe that "Elite QB" is a god among boys when it comes to playing NFL QB. (and who doesn't?) you will give him the benefit of the doubt or simply marvel at his ability to "not turn it over" You will say things like: Look how good he is!! He smartly checked it down instead of forcing that throw. (all the while not even commenting on the "open" receiver he "missed" on that play. Such is the way with fans.)
Go Bears!

 

[blh7068]

Most of the check downs to Forte were late in the season when Marshall was too hurt to continue.

I strongly suggest you check his game log receiving numbers from 2014, then come back and tell me how you arrived at that notion.

 

[wood20ks]

How about this...if the Bears had an explosive rusher, that inherently helps the passing game. I love Forte, because he does a lot of things well...but he really is closer to pedestrian when it comes to running the football. Yes- I do question how much opposing defenses respect the running game.

Ive often wondered this....... Dominoes seem harder to take down than him.

 

[wood20ks]

While at the game you see open receivers for the Bears once in a while.....nothing like we see for the other team

I'm not sure how anyone can see what's going on at a game. With all the commotion, players colliding with each other and it taking fusty a few seconds for every play to happen, how can a person see all this?

If you watch the was, how do you what's happening at the los? What's the ribs doing? What's Jay doing?

I think an average play might be six seconds?

Ive been to plenty of games and to me its tough to see what the heel is going on........

 

[cubzzzfanincali]

This is exactly why you have to watch the all 22. It usually takes me an average of ten times through both the 22 and the end zone view before I feel like I really understand a play well. There's simply way too much going on for the average normal human to process it all in one six second gulp.

And with that, jokes about the "average normal human" comment can commence.

 

[wood20ks]

I'm not sure how anyone can see what's going on at a game. With all the commotion, players colliding with each other and it taking(just) a few seconds for every play to happen, how can a person see all this?

If you watch the was(wrs), how do you what's happening at the los? What's the ribs(rbs) doing? What's Jay doing?

I think an average play might be six seconds?

Ive been to plenty of games and to me its tough to see what the heel(hell) is going on........

Damn I hate autocorrect...... It spells the words for me......

 

[leomaz]

I'm not sure how anyone can see what's going on at a game. With all the commotion, players colliding with each other and it taking fusty a few seconds for every play to happen, how can a person see all this?

If you watch the was, how do you what's happening at the los? What's the ribs doing? What's Jay doing?

I think an average play might be six seconds?

Ive been to plenty of games and to me its tough to see what the heel is going on........

I'm in an endzone so you see it a bit better and if there is a recievers wide open in from of you its automatic

 

[wood20ks]

I'm in an endzone so you see it a bit better and if there is a recievers wide open in from of you its automatic

Not buying it......

Been there, done that.
Too much happening to see everything.