Have #2 pick and thinking of brown

[ehb5]

I sure wouldn't. In a PPR, yes the WR's are more valuable, but so are the very few RB's that rarely leave the field. The gap between them and the typical "2 down" backs widens considerably. Gurley, Bell, Zeke, DJ..by far and away the best assets to own in a ppr, then a slew of WR's

But theres also a lot more random rbs who gain value. All of a sudden thompson, riddick, duke, gio, cohen, etc all are usable.

 

[ehb5]

12 team ppr and like I said drafting 2nd


I know it’s not scientific but doing a lot of mocks and looking at stats by the time I come back in round 2 there aren’t any top 10 high value imo wr out there. With the quick turn for round 3 the same meh wr will be there so sure I can take bell or gurly first and come back with say McCoy or macfreny or McKinnon. That would leave me in round 3 looking at hill Hilton theilen jeffery none of them scream wr 1 I know everyone and their mother loves Rb. Just don’t know if brown and best rb or top rb and best wr in round 2/3

I dont think you can really go wrong there. If AB is the "wrong" pick youre still in great shape. AB is as automatic as they come. Not saying id do it but its not crazy.

 

[ehb5]

If you only start 2 WR then you should draft a RB with the #2 overall pick.

WR are more plentiful and will not drag your fantasy team down. But a couple of bad RB could.

With the flex though its essentially 3 WRs in a ppr.

 

[TREFF]

But theres also a lot more random rbs who gain value. All of a sudden thompson, riddick, duke, gio, cohen, etc all are usable.

That affects their position relative to the 2nd tier RB's and the also ran wideouts, their uptick in value is barely noticeable when compared to the elites. Same could be said for gobs of WR's, but we don't consider that a reason for not taking Brown

 

[SmokingMonkey]

But theres also a lot more random rbs who gain value. All of a sudden thompson, riddick, duke, gio, cohen, etc all are usable.

That affects their position relative to the 2nd tier RB's and the also ran wideouts, their uptick in value is barely noticeable when compared to the elites. Same could be said for gobs of WR's, but we don't consider that a reason for not taking Brown

I think it's like once you get to WR and RB 22 or 24, the tides turn in favor of WR2/3 types being more productive than the RBs from there on out in half and full ppr.

I'll try to find the article I read about that, it was on roto or fantasypros recently

 

[SmokingMonkey]

I had it wrong, 22 is where WR catches up to RB in standard, 14 in half ppr, and 2nd overall in full PPR

How PPR Should Change the Way You Draft (Fantasy Football)

Still advise to go stud RB in 1st if you get the chance, then load up at WR

 

[averagejoe]

I had it wrong, 22 is where WR catches up to RB in standard, 14 in half ppr, and 2nd overall in full PPR

How PPR Should Change the Way You Draft (Fantasy Football)

Still advise to go stud RB in 1st if you get the chance, then load up at WR

Nice article.
I think it might be worth noting that the author stated the chart listed the average scoring of each position based on where they finished.
That could make the stats misleading. While AB is usually drafted as the WR1, he may not finish that way.
Believe Hopkins edged him out last year in PPR.
Julio the year before that. Possibly.
My point is, the chart may imply that the WR1 is AB, when it actually represents the average of the WR who finished first in fantasy scoring.
But by the same token, the RB would also be all over the place.

 

[TREFF]

I had it wrong, 22 is where WR catches up to RB in standard, 14 in half ppr, and 2nd overall in full PPR

How PPR Should Change the Way You Draft (Fantasy Football)

Still advise to go stud RB in 1st if you get the chance, then load up at WR

The article actually proved you should go RB at 2, as the differences between WR1 and WR 12 for instance (which might be the WR you get if you go RB first) is only @100 pts, but the difference between RB1 and RB12 (which might be the RB you get if you go WR first) is almost 160. So while maybe you get equal production with the first pick either way, you lose 60 points on your second by going WR first.
The author even focuses on the middle tiers to prove his point, which is dead on accurate, but the reasoning fails at the top.

Ppr makes those second tier WR's much better, which is more reason to wait and grab elite RB's first

 

[TREFF]

Nice article.
I think it might be worth noting that the author stated the chart listed the average scoring of each position based on where they finished.
That could make the stats misleading. While AB is usually drafted as the WR1, he may not finish that way.
Believe Hopkins edged him out last year in PPR.
Julio the year before that. Possibly.
My point is, the chart may imply that the WR1 is AB, when it actually represents the average of the WR who finished first in fantasy scoring.
But by the same token, the RB would also be all over the place.

Right? Its imperfect no matter how you slice it. Only way to get it right is to know ahead of time who the RB2, WR1, RB12 and WR12 (Or whatever random first and second picks you wanna pick are) will end up before you draft them.
Grabbing Brown and the RB that surprises greatly exceeds expectations makes you look like a genius, just as taking an elite RB and a WR that goes top 5 from out of nowhere will. And both ways renders this debate mute. Too bad we can't know till after the fact

 

[TREFF]

Cripes, I studied the chart, didn't read the rest. Even he agrees..
"
But in general, wide receivers are king in PPR formats, but that doesn’t mean you should completely ignore the running back position. In fact, there’s plenty of value to be had later in drafts at wide receiver, as indicated by the 60-player gap between the WR48 and RB25, that produce nearly the same amount of points. Because of that, I would snag one of the top-tier running backs (Todd Gurley, Le’Veon Bell, Ezekiel Elliott, David Johnson, Saquon Barkley) in the first-round if I had the chance, because they’re the running backs who are guaranteed 300-plus touches if healthy"

There ya have it

 

[Clayton]

JuJu Smith-Schuster had almost 1,000 yds and 7 TDs as a rookie and the Steelers have a new OC. I wouldn't be stunned if the talented 2nd year guy ended up stealing touched from AB.

Antonio Brown is safe but I wouldn't touch him in the top 3.

 

[RobBase]

Take a RB.

 

[eaglesnut]

Dude, get your RB.

You don't draft a WR until the elite RBs are gone.

Gurley, Bell, Johnson, Zeke in whatever order you want, but geezus don't pass on one for a WR.

You are basically arguing that it is better to draft later. The #2 spot is a gift. Open it.

 

[eaglesnut]

looking at last year stats and going with guys who i project to be available when i draft in the 1st and 2nd rounds.

brown had 331pts (and he missed two games last year and left the pats game in the first qtr) wr's that should be there their point totals from last year. fitz 265 landry 260 hill 251 theilen 247

taking bell 348pts and rb's that should be there when i pick in round 2. mccoy 271 christian 229 duke 216 howard 206 freeman 202 mckkinnon 179.

I wouldn't even look at it this way, BUT

"A big drop off either way"

? ? ?

Look at those numbers again. Do the math. The RB drop off is way bigger.

 

[Barilko]

nothing to add to all the above advice

except

if you draft an RB at 2 (which you must do) and the guy who gets Brown wins the league, i promise you it will not be because he got Brown and you didn't

Draft the Stud RB

 

[SteelersPride]

hes going brown

 

[nj_cup]

I wouldn't even look at it this way, BUT

"A big drop off either way"

? ? ?

Look at those numbers again. Do the math. The RB drop off is way bigger.

Brown missed almost 3 games from injury and still finished ahead of hopkins in my scoring by 20.

I do wonder too if the Steelers will limit bells opportunities in the redZone being this is a walk year. So would that mean brown gets more looks? Juju is definitely a concern but what player doesn’t come with a concern.

 

[TREFF]

Brown missed almost 3 games from injury and still finished ahead of hopkins in my scoring by 20.

I do wonder too if the Steelers will limit bells opportunities in the redZone being this is a walk year. So would that mean brown gets more looks? Juju is definitely a concern but what player doesn’t come with a concern.

And Hopkins only had 6-7 games with a real NFL QB, who was a rookie, and still was in the ballpark. Pretty impressive. Think the discussion as to whether Hopkins or Brown (or Beckham) should be the #1 WR is pretty valid

 

[eaglesnut]

Brown missed almost 3 games from injury and still finished ahead of hopkins in my scoring by 20.

I do wonder too if the Steelers will limit bells opportunities in the redZone being this is a walk year. So would that mean brown gets more looks? Juju is definitely a concern but what player doesn’t come with a concern.

Missing games is bad. Not gonna extrapolate a guys numbers when he can't even do it himself. Is he even playing 16 this year?

That said, you can round Brown's numbers up if you want and you should still notice that the WRs have a much smaller rate of decline than the RBs do in the sample provided... 265, 260, 251, 247 vs 271, 229, 216, 206, 202... Even with mccoy taken out of it.

 

[SteelersPride]

And Hopkins only had 6-7 games with a real NFL QB, who was a rookie, and still was in the ballpark. Pretty impressive. Think the discussion as to whether Hopkins or Brown (or Beckham) should be the #1 WR is pretty valid

i have to hole heartedly agree here. Hopkins has a deep connection with his qb, and fuller sucks he had a rediculous touchdown percentage that wont be matched and not many catches, hopkins just gets target after target