Harvard Sports Analysis Collective: Dolphins & Seahawks NFL's Top Teams

[Wolverine830872]

Dunno but the AFCE has been weak other then NE. If NE had a fall off then possibly Miami is sitting alone atop with a decent schedule to play. Except when they lose to the Ravens of course.

I am definitely in the camp that believes NE takes a huge step back this season, can't wait to find out if that'll be the case. August is going to be a VERY long month.

 

[BigKen]

Interesting but I'd still like to know more about how he's doing this. Does the algorithm take into account such things as odds for injury on specific positions or decline in performance based on the age of player?

Good point. Injuries are always the intangibles. No team makes it through a season without at least a few. Some are much more critical than others. What happens if Russell Wilson blows a knee or Aaron Rodgers ? In some instances a left tackle injury will destroy the teams chances.

All things being equal, no team can be eliminated until the 9th game of the season has been played.

The other critical piece of information is a team schedule. An average team playing a brutal schedule has less chance than an above average team playing a cakewalk schedule.

 

[SteelersPride]

hes really down on the ravens, 9% chance, come on.....thats silly

actually he browns are at 20%

so the he has the browns twice as likely as the ravens to make the playoffs

 

[Manster7588]

Maybe he thinks Miami has a big season NE drops off and the AFCE is weak? Plausible.

Even if so I see 3 to 5 better AFC teams

 

[Tgann69]

Even if so I see 3 to 5 better AFC teams

Me too but my bet is he is seein something statistically that says Miami replaces NE.

 

[Ojb81]

hes really down on the ravens, 9% chance, come on.....thats silly

actually he browns are at 20%

so the he has the browns twice as likely as the ravens to make the playoffs

agreed, that's absurd. as much as I don't want to admit it, I could easily see the ravens going back to the superbowl this season.

 

[Tgann69]

hes really down on the ravens, 9% chance, come on.....thats silly

actually he browns are at 20%

so the he has the browns twice as likely as the ravens to make the playoffs

I think he's dead wrong. However it may be that he is weighting schedule and roster change more then historical? dunno?

 

[SteelersPride]

Just about everyone would say hes wrong....

 

[SteelersPride]

56% for the jets?

 

[Tgann69]

Just about everyone would say hes wrong....

Not about Miami making the playoffs.

 

[SteelersPride]

Jets ahead of the ravens, steelers , bengals, Texans, Chargers in the afc?????

 

[SteelersPride]

Not about Miami making the playoffs.

no about his 9% ravens

 

[HaroldSeattle]

Jets ahead of the ravens, steelers , bengals, Texans, Chargers in the afc?????

Sounds ludicrous, but if it happens, he'll be rich. Shoot Vegas bookmakers would want to hire him. I'll believe it when it happens, but I'll be in shock.

 

[Tgann69]

no about his 9% ravens

I agree but I do believe Miami makes playoffs...

 

[tducey]

I have Miami winning the AFC East this year, I think they're going to surprise a few people this year.

 

[Battlelyon]

He has the Rams as the 5th worst team in the NFL, um yeah....

 

[SteelersPride]

He has the Rams as the 5th worst team in the NFL, um yeah....

thats possible

 

[Wolverine830872]

He has the Rams as the 5th worst team in the NFL, um yeah....

not 5th worst team, just 5th worst odds, which takes into account SoS and Divisional Strength.

 

[NEPatsfan]

Interesting but I'd still like to know more about how he's doing this. Does the algorithm take into account such things as odds for injury on specific positions or decline in performance based on the age of player?

I think he puts a bit to much emphasis on teams previous years results. As we all know that is not a very reliable stat to use from one year to the next.

 

[NEPatsfan]

I am definitely in the camp that believes NE takes a huge step back this season, can't wait to find out if that'll be the case. August is going to be a VERY long month.

August is always a very long month.