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Goodberry's 2025 NFL Draft Sheet

Cincyfan78

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I think we can all agree that if there is one organization that can be trusted to turn raw talent into production, it's the Cincinnati Bengals. We'll be just fine.
I blame @CrashDavisSports

The guy has all the physical traits to be a really good DE, maybe even elite. His RAS puts him in the top 10 of all time. But, his lack of production is 100% concerning with all those gifts, and as @cincygrad said - this organization and projects do not exactly have a great history.
 

Cincyfan78

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As a side note, the 49ers who are very good at drafting defensive lineman, grabbed Mykel Williams at #11. So who is wrong, the 49ers at #11, or Joe Goodberry that listed him at #171?
We'll find out - but I'll posit this to you: Of the organizations in the NFL - does SF have more success on potential players like that? I'd argue, likely, yes. Contrast that to the Bengals, whose history of projects is....poor to put it mildly.
 

cincygrad

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As a side note, the 49ers who are very good at drafting defensive lineman, grabbed Mykel Williams at #11. So who is wrong, the 49ers at #11, or Joe Goodberry that listed him at #171?
Probably somewhere in the middle. I think it's good that we have access to all of these advance stats now, but I don't think they are very comparable when you look at them in the college game vs. the pro game. The offensive sets are just too different - Comparably there are much fewer true pass sets in the college game and the ball tends to come out quick. I think relying too much on production is going to hurt you. That said, you better have some ideas why production was lower relative to expectation and how that will be fixed at this level.
 

Cincyfan78

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Probably somewhere in the middle. I think it's good that we have access to all of these advance stats now, but I don't think they are very comparable when you look at them in the college game vs. the pro game. The offensive sets are just too different - Comparably there are much fewer true pass sets in the college game and the ball tends to come out quick. I think relying too much on production is going to hurt you. That said, you better have some ideas why production was lower relative to expectation and how that will be fixed at this level.
Joe hasn't done a lot of other NFL teams, but if you go through his history, which he shares, on some of the guys drafted higher up by the Bengals, and then where their sheet had those guys ranked...quite honestly, I think Duke should be calling Joe for that sheet. It favors Joe more than Duke...LOL
 

cincygrad

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I blame @CrashDavisSports

The guy has all the physical traits to be a really good DE, maybe even elite. His RAS puts him in the top 10 of all time. But, his lack of production is 100% concerning with all those gifts, and as @cincygrad said - this organization and projects do not exactly have a great history.
The only thing that gives me pause (and hope) is that normally when the Bengals fail it's because they get obssessed with changing someone's position or they take someone that is truly a tweener. In this case, the dude has all the physical tools needed to be an edge. And he's gifted enough athletically to move all over the line in different sets.
 

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Joe hasn't done a lot of other NFL teams, but if you go through his history, which he shares, on some of the guys drafted higher up by the Bengals, and then where their sheet had those guys ranked...quite honestly, I think Duke should be calling Joe for that sheet. It favors Joe more than Duke...LOL
Oh, I agree that his stuff is really good. But production scores do have some variables to consider and Joe even pointed out some of these when he did a deep dive on Stewart.
 

Cincyfan78

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The only thing that gives me pause (and hope) is that normally when the Bengals fail it's because they get obssessed with changing someone's position or they take someone that is truly a tweener. In this case, the dude has all the physical tools needed to be an edge. And he's gifted enough athletically to move all over the line in different sets.
This is true. He's a pure DE and he's not moving. Let's hang out hats on Al's ability to find the best way to use guys, and get the most out of them. It has been his strength as a DC, and in the past as a LB coach. Hopefully it works out.
 

Cincyfan78

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Oh, I agree that his stuff is really good. But production scores do have some variables to consider and Joe even pointed out some of these when he did a deep dive on Stewart.
Agreed. These are not be-all end-all type sheets. But as you start to go back over the lists - you see a lot more hits on those sheets than actual hits from GM selections. Of course...drafting a guy and then putting him in the right spots can do wonders for some guys - which is why there is always nuance.


I just think with all the lack of production last year along the defense, and defensive line, adding a guy who didn't have production at the college level is a swing this team, at the current juncture, could ill-afford to take.


Then you found out they didn't even have him in on visits. They met with him 1 time at the combine and that was it. I mean - it almost seems like a panic move...they had Nolen on the card, and he got take right before them...and instead of pivoting to the next best DT (and likely as good as Nolen) in Harmon - they took a HR swing...if this defense was humming along, and had not just had one of the worst statistical seasons of all time in Bengal history - you could understand it a lot more. As things stand...whooo....
 

Cincyfan78

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Best of the rest on the sheet.


1745586136374.png
 

Cincyfan78

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From joe: I did this last night on the stream, but I can lay it out in tweet form now. Shemar Stewart has a career 12.5% pressure rate. That puts him in the 56th percentile amongst edge prospects. In True Pass Sets, Stewart has a career 20.2% pressure rate. That puts him in the 67th percentile amongst edge prospects. It really came down finishing. He's missed 8 tackles/sacks as a pass rusher the last two years.


Now - Maybe Al can refine him more and get him to finish, but this is essentially what the Bengals are already getting out of Murphy. A lot of near pressure/sacks...but no finishes. Again, here's to hoping Al can crack the nut.
 

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As we talk about historicals - I believe Joe has said you want to be above 75 for those 1st round picks...if you draw a line there - I think you see the pattern (Eiffert injuries cloud his playing, but was elite when healthy and obviously wouldn't be shown on this chart heading into the draft).

1745586417635.png
 

Cincyfan78

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The only true "miss" on that chart above a 75 is Ross. Jackson was decent until he suddenly went prima donna on his contracts and then never really was the same...jury out on Murphy, but looking less and less "good".
 

Cincyfan78

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Alright....Round 1 is over. We're ON TO ROUND 2!

Where do the Bengals go here? I think they go IOL. Jonah or Tate would be pretty darn good. Mulim from WVU (I think that's his name) is also a kid I'd watch for. Both Wyatt and Jonah have OT experience and would bring a lot of flexibility to the table. Tate has production, but some injury concerns, but did place 8th all time in RAS for IOL...if the Bengals love them some traits (see Round 1, Stewart)...Tate would be a no-brainer here, and I would be very happy with that pick.
 

CrashDavisSports

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I blame @CrashDavisSports

The guy has all the physical traits to be a really good DE, maybe even elite. His RAS puts him in the top 10 of all time. But, his lack of production is 100% concerning with all those gifts, and as @cincygrad said - this organization and projects do not exactly have a great history.
As a side note, he doesn't have a top 10 RAS, he is #1 overall in the history of the scoring.

Now granted, like you said, I was hoping he was not the pick last night. What are the chances Emmanwori drops to #49?

I told my buddies I was with last night watching the draft, I got a friend on a message board that is probably cursing and throwing things right now with that pick.
 

CrashDavisSports

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Alright....Round 1 is over. We're ON TO ROUND 2!

Where do the Bengals go here? I think they go IOL. Jonah or Tate would be pretty darn good. Mulim from WVU (I think that's his name) is also a kid I'd watch for. Both Wyatt and Jonah have OT experience and would bring a lot of flexibility to the table. Tate has production, but some injury concerns, but did place 8th all time in RAS for IOL...if the Bengals love them some traits (see Round 1, Stewart)...Tate would be a no-brainer here, and I would be very happy with that pick.
Hopefully Emmanwori drops to 49. That is my saving grace.
 

Cincyfan78

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As a side note, he doesn't have a top 10 RAS, he is #1 overall in the history of the scoring.

Now granted, like you said, I was hoping he was not the pick last night. What are the chances Emmanwori drops to #49?

I told my buddies I was with last night watching the draft, I got a friend on a message board that is probably cursing and throwing things right now with that pick.
Yes, I thought I saw 9.8, but then saw it was 10.00 - #1 all time. Here's to hoping!

Honestly - I don't think he makes it to #49 - think with how things break, they will need to go IOL if they are going to go that route at all. Getting guys late in round 3 starting into round 4 becomes a bit of a toss-up. Would rather see them go Jonah/Tate/Wyatt in round 2, personally.
 

CrashDavisSports

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Yes, I thought I saw 9.8, but then saw it was 10.00 - #1 all time. Here's to hoping!

Honestly - I don't think he makes it to #49 - think with how things break, they will need to go IOL if they are going to go that route at all. Getting guys late in round 3 starting into round 4 becomes a bit of a toss-up. Would rather see them go Jonah/Tate/Wyatt in round 2, personally.
I thought there was a thought process last night about you being cool with waiting until round 4 for a OG if the Bengals take signing Risner seriously.
 

cincygrad

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At this point, I'm going with Tate Ratledge if he's there. Why fuck around with projections of tackles going to guard or guys with limited experience? We need a starter. Ratledge might not have position versatility or the upside of some prospects, but he's played a lot of football at a big-time program and would be ready to start on day 1. And he'd probably be better than anything we've had at guard the last 2 seasons.
 

Cincyfan78

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I thought there was a thought process last night about you being cool with waiting until round 4 for a OG if the Bengals take signing Risner seriously.
I'd still take a IOL by round 3...but, I do agree - if they have Risner in their pocket - I can be OK with taking a guy that might be a bit lower...but that also came with a caveat of getting impact day 1 guys - which so far, IMO, they whiffed on in round 1....so....LOL
 
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