Giants vs. Junipero Serras 4/29

[GiantsPackersChamps2011]

We take the Series!
Bumgarner 4-1

 

[MarcoPolo]

Casilla with 2 Ks and the save.

 

[GiantsPackersChamps2011]

Do we have our own Post Game comments (coverage)

 

[GiantsPackersChamps2011]

Who do you have as Player of the Game:

I'll take Bumgarner:
Early in the game struggled a bit but really settled down, and pitched 8 stellar innings. 4-1, great start to the year

 

[iHATEdodgers]

MadBum is just a bad motherfucker. I am so glad they signed him long term.

 

[msgkings322]

Dodgers looking like another win too...

Folks here still don't see anything with them?

 

[SFAnthem]

Dodgers looking like another win too...

Folks here still don't see anything with them?

I see a nice start, that's all

Let's see the Giants play em a few times, then I will make judgements.

 

[msgkings322]

I see a nice start, that's all

Let's see the Giants play em a few times, then I will make judgements.

We get our first taste in a couple of weeks. I'm not penciling them in for 95 wins just yet, I'm just saying there's always that team no one is really banking on that has a good to great year. Their starting rotation is as good as ours, or very very close. They have the best position player in the entire sport and it's not even debatable. They have a couple other nice pieces. If they are this year's surprise team it won't be a, uh, surprise.

 

[SFAnthem]

We get our first taste in a couple of weeks. I'm not penciling them in for 95 wins just yet, I'm just saying there's always that team no one is really banking on that has a good to great year. Their starting rotation is as good as ours, or very very close. They have the best position player in the entire sport and it's not even debatable. They have a couple other nice pieces. If they are this year's surprise team it won't be a, uh, surprise.

That's true. It's a trend in the NL West, isn't it?

I wanna see what kind of depth they have and how they react to injuries and slumps. They cannot be discounted, not with that hot start, but the "they are for real" tags aren't handed out til June.

 

[filosofy29]

Dodgers looking like another win too...

Folks here still don't see anything with them?

I'm not worried about them yet. Here's some reasons why:

1.) They're a combined 11-2 against the Pirates, Padres and Astros (which is still impressive, but nothing Earth-shattering). They're 5-4 against the Brewers, Braves and Nationals.
2.) Their offense is a two man team. They have 19 total Home Runs (16 of which by Kemp - 11 and Ethier - 5). They've only scored 89 total runs which is actually 1 run less than the Giants have scored. Of their 86 team RBI's, 48 of them have been produced by Kemp and Ethier (or 56%). Ethier is near his career line (over his HR pace, but under his BA pace). I highly doubt Kemp is going to hit 80 HR's and bat .425 the rest of the way though.
3.) Capuano, Lilly and Billingsley are pitching WAY over their career norms right now. They all could have career years, I'm just not going to hold my breath.

I need to see them at the 54 game mark before I make any judgements. My guess is, they'll be a lot closer to 32-22 by then which is still impressive, but not when you take into account their 16-6 start.

 

[the_broom]

Wasn't it pretty bad last year too?

Last year the team had no range but they caught and threw the ball ok...this year....

Not so good...

 

[msgkings322]

I'm not worried about them yet. Here's some reasons why:

1.) They're a combined 11-2 against the Pirates, Padres and Astros (which is still impressive, but nothing Earth-shattering). They're 5-4 against the Brewers, Braves and Nationals.
2.) Their offense is a two man team. They have 19 total Home Runs (16 of which by Kemp - 11 and Ethier - 5). They've only scored 89 total runs which is actually 1 run less than the Giants have scored. Of their 86 team RBI's, 48 of them have been produced by Kemp and Ethier (or 56%). Ethier is near his career line (over his HR pace, but under his BA pace). I highly doubt Kemp is going to hit 80 HR's and bat .425 the rest of the way though.
3.) Capuano, Lilly and Billingsley are pitching WAY over their career norms right now. They all could have career years, I'm just not going to hold my breath.

I need to see them at the 54 game mark before I make any judgements. My guess is, they'll be a lot closer to 32-22 by then which is still impressive, but not when you take into account their 16-6 start.

#1 granted, they got fat on some bad teams, but you have to do that and they did

On #2: I disagree, Loney is legit too, and Uribe can always have a 2010 type year. And one of the two men you describe is the runaway MVP this year. He's not quite Bondsian, but it's like when we used to have the best position player in the game? Now those fuckers do. He can hit for average and power, steal bags, fields great at a premium position, etc.

#3: Billingsley has always been solid and Capuano has been good before. Lilly is a pretty good 5th starter, at least as good as ours. Their rotation is legit.

Agreed it's still early but 32-22 is about as good as we will be at 54 games, if we're lucky (we'd have to go 20-10). I'm not saying they are the '27 Yankees, just that I think the division is a 3 team race not 2.

 

[filosofy29]

#1 granted, they got fat on some bad teams, but you have to do that and they did

On #2: I disagree, Loney is legit too, and Uribe can always have a 2010 type year. And one of the two men you describe is the runaway MVP this year. He's not quite Bondsian, but it's like when we used to have the best position player in the game? Now those fuckers do. He can hit for average and power, steal bags, fields great at a premium position, etc.

#3: Billingsley has always been solid and Capuano has been good before. Lilly is a pretty good 5th starter, at least as good as ours. Their rotation is legit.

Agreed it's still early but 32-22 is about as good as we will be at 54 games, if we're lucky (we'd have to go 20-10). I'm not saying they are the '27 Yankees, just that I think the division is a 3 team race not 2.

1.) True and agreed. You have to beat the bad teams still and the Giants were terrible at that last year when they needed it (all the Astros' series anyone???) and it cost them. Definitely gotta give the Doghairs credit for this.

2.) Loney is solid, not legit. He should bat around .285 with less than 10 home runs. Uribe "can", but his power numbers are down again after an injury plagued season last year. They say he's only 33, but I have a feeling that may be an "old" 33 if you catch my drift. Sure, Kemp is a beast, but I don't think he bats above .400 for the rest of the year and I don't think he'll get to even 60 home runs, so his pace is going to slow down quite a bit (even though he's still the best player in the game bar none). Seriously, go look at their hitting statistics, do you think that's sustainable (for Kemp)? Some guys may start hitting, but those other names don't frighten me at all.

3.) Billingsley's been 35-33 over the last 3 seasons with an (approximate) ERA of 3.94 and a (approximate) WHIP of 1.35. I think he'll regress a lot closer to those numbers than his current pace of 2.64 ERA and .95 WHIP. He is only 27 though, so maybe he's learned how to pitch more effectively. He has the best chance to keep up his numbers over Capuano and Lilly in my humble opinion. Lilly is a very smart pitcher and knows how to get the most out of his stuff. That said, he's at a .90 ERA and .85 WHIP. I can't imagine him sustaining that.....especially at age 36. I think he'll be above 3.00 ERA when it's all said and done. Capuano is the wild card, but he's never had an ERA lower than 3.95. He's only 32, so maybe he's coming into his own as well, but some of the numbers put up by this staff (save for Clayton Kershaw who is the best pitcher in the game imho) have SSS written all over it.

So, in essence, I'm not discounting this team one bit and they should be a contender for the NL West Crown, but this team has "unknown" written all over it, that's all. Like I've said earlier, I never saw the 2010 versions of the Padres and Giants, so anything can happen.....so who knows, they may barnstorm their way to the NL title. I'm just saying if I were an investor and bought some LA Dodger stock, I'd sell the shit out of it right now.

 

[msgkings322]

1.) True and agreed. You have to beat the bad teams still and the Giants were terrible at that last year when they needed it (all the Astros' series anyone???) and it cost them. Definitely gotta give the Doghairs credit for this.

2.) Loney is solid, not legit. He should bat around .285 with less than 10 home runs. Uribe "can", but his power numbers are down again after an injury plagued season last year. They say he's only 33, but I have a feeling that may be an "old" 33 if you catch my drift. Sure, Kemp is a beast, but I don't think he bats above .400 for the rest of the year and I don't think he'll get to even 60 home runs, so his pace is going to slow down quite a bit (even though he's still the best player in the game bar none). Seriously, go look at their hitting statistics, do you think that's sustainable (for Kemp)? Some guys may start hitting, but those other names don't frighten me at all.

3.) Billingsley's been 35-33 over the last 3 seasons with an (approximate) ERA of 3.94 and a (approximate) WHIP of 1.35. I think he'll regress a lot closer to those numbers than his current pace of 2.64 ERA and .95 WHIP. He is only 27 though, so maybe he's learned how to pitch more effectively. He has the best chance to keep up his numbers over Capuano and Lilly in my humble opinion. Lilly is a very smart pitcher and knows how to get the most out of his stuff. That said, he's at a .90 ERA and .85 WHIP. I can't imagine him sustaining that.....especially at age 36. I think he'll be above 3.00 ERA when it's all said and done. Capuano is the wild card, but he's never had an ERA lower than 3.95. He's only 32, so maybe he's coming into his own as well, but some of the numbers put up by this staff (save for Clayton Kershaw who is the best pitcher in the game imho) have SSS written all over it.

So, in essence, I'm not discounting this team one bit and they should be a contender for the NL West Crown, but this team has "unknown" written all over it, that's all. Like I've said earlier, I never saw the 2010 versions of the Padres and Giants, so anything can happen.....so who knows, they may barnstorm their way to the NL title. I'm just saying if I were an investor and bought some LA Dodger stock, I'd sell the shit out of it right now.

Your last para = my thoughts. They aren't going to play .727 ball the whole year, and the hot starts for some players will cool. But they to me seem like as much a contender for the division as AZ or SF, and that's all I'm trying to point out. We all, myself included, started the year thinking our task would be to beat AZ for the title. Now I firmly believe the Dodgers are this year's 'surprise' and we have to worry about them too. They will win around the same number of games we will, and I hope we win at least 1 more!

OK, I've hammered this into the ground. Let's see what happens!

 

[SFAnthem]

#1 granted, they got fat on some bad teams, but you have to do that and they did

On #2: I disagree, Loney is legit too, and Uribe can always have a 2010 type year. And one of the two men you describe is the runaway MVP this year. He's not quite Bondsian, but it's like when we used to have the best position player in the game? Now those fuckers do. He can hit for average and power, steal bags, fields great at a premium position, etc.

#3: Billingsley has always been solid and Capuano has been good before. Lilly is a pretty good 5th starter, at least as good as ours. Their rotation is legit.

Agreed it's still early but 32-22 is about as good as we will be at 54 games, if we're lucky (we'd have to go 20-10). I'm not saying they are the '27 Yankees, just that I think the division is a 3 team race not 2.

Ugh, all this dodger love is making me ill.

You're giving way too much credit to average players.

Runaway MVPs awarded in April?

Are they considered contenders? Sure they are, so are Arizona and Colorado. I just find it silly to draw too much from one month of baseball.

For example, last year's standings at the end of April:

Colorado 17-8 .680
Giants 13-12 .520
LA 13-14 .481
Arizona 11-15 .423
San Diego 9-17 .346

 

[Heathbar012]

#1 granted, they got fat on some bad teams, but you have to do that and they did

On #2: I disagree, Loney is legit too, and Uribe can always have a 2010 type year. And one of the two men you describe is the runaway MVP this year. He's not quite Bondsian, but it's like when we used to have the best position player in the game? Now those fuckers do. He can hit for average and power, steal bags, fields great at a premium position, etc.

#3: Billingsley has always been solid and Capuano has been good before. Lilly is a pretty good 5th starter, at least as good as ours. Their rotation is legit.

Agreed it's still early but 32-22 is about as good as we will be at 54 games, if we're lucky (we'd have to go 20-10). I'm not saying they are the '27 Yankees, just that I think the division is a 3 team race not 2.

That's just it. Whether it's a 3-team race between the Giants/Diamondbacks/Dodgers or Gs/D-Backs/Rox it still isn't much of a surprise. If the Dodgers make the playoffs, they can be considered the surprise team of the year. All in all, though, given the variables, this Dodgers' team is playing exactly how I expected them to play. I didn't think they would be 16-6, but I expected them to play well enough to beat the teams that they played more often than they lost. From now to the end of inter-league play, I'd be surprised by a record that is more than a game or two above .500.

As the Padres' young hitters mature, I wouldn't be surprised to even see them take a series or two from the Dogders and Rockies during the Dog Days. Certainly, the days of a weak NL West are over. Luckily, the NFC West is still awful (sorry, Raiders fans, but the AFC West got much better).

 

[gp956]

Dodgers looking like another win too...

Folks here still don't see anything with them?

I see they're on pace to win 117 games. I think they'll cool off a bit.

 

[Toolrulzz]

I said goodbye to my 20's yesterday at the yard. Great times and great game with awesome people. Doesn't get any better than that. MadBum is quickly moving up the list of my favorite Giants. Kid is money right now. Also, I love that Casilla has stepped in and taken full control of the closer spot.

 

[Heathbar012]

I said goodbye to my 20's yesterday at the yard. Great times and great game with awesome people. Doesn't get any better than that. MadBum is quickly moving up the list of my favorite Giants. Kid is money right now. Also, I love that Casilla has stepped in and taken full control of the closer spot.

+1. I'll be doing the same thing on June 9th against the Rangers. Hopefully, I'll get as good of a game as you did.

 

[Stokes1931]

I see they're on pace to win 117 games. I think they'll cool off a bit.

And Matt Kemp will slug 77 homers this year, drive in 168, score 141, and hit .425 for the season (with 238 hits). He will have 140 K's though.

Cool down? Yeah.