Giants losers in Winter Meetings?

[Robotech]

As many of us expected, the Giants did not make any big splashes in the Winter Meetings. My feeling is that they are saving up money to bring back key players who are due arbitration and also to save money for the future when Cain and Lincecum are free agents. Plus, the Giants have more confidence in their farm system than they did in the past.

I read one article (and I'm sure there are more) that have pegged the Giants as losers in the Winter Meetings, but I don't really mind the strategy that Sabean and the top brass appear to be following. Sure many of us woulda liked to see the Giants land Jason Bartlett, but just because no big moves were made doesn't mean you're a loser. Sometimes it's the moves you don't make that are the best. There's a part of me that thinks that teams like the Sox and Nationals are just crippling themselves with the big money they're throwing out there, and I'm glad that the Giants aren't doing that anymore like they did with Zito and Rowand.

 

[Robotech]

To be sure, I know that the Giants still need more offensive punch, but I have faith that they will be smart about it and not give up too much money or too many prospects, if they choose to get a bat via trade. Anybody feel that Sabean is being too conservative and resting on his laurels? I don't feel that way, but I can see why one would argue that he is.

 

[msgkings322]

I've already stated Sabean gets a total free pass from me now for 3 years.

That said, I also think he's doing fine. Our payroll is increasing just keeping this team together, and we really won't be able to make big FA signings until Zito and Rowand are off the books, and even then we may just have to use that $ to keep our pitchers, and Posey.

Sabean is making the right calls, not getting hamstrung with more ridiculous deals (Uribe, Crawford, etc). We are counting on a full year of Posey and Torres, with some help later from Belt and hopefully a better Panda, and a useful DeRosa, to make our offense run well enough to win with our awesome pitching. Our pitching literally can't be improved on. Other than obviously ridiculous notions like a rotation of Lee, Lincecum, Felix, Halladay, and Cain, can we really say there's any way to improve on the SP? And the BP is almost perfect too.

So, no, I don't think he's being to conservative. I think he's being prudent and making the right moves to contend again. He's doing what he shoulda done before signing Rowand and Zito.

 

[calsnowskier]

The Giants played the meetings perfectly. The team is set up very well right now with the only real hole being back-up shortstop. Of course they were going to be quiet at the meetings.

As for their offense, I like it. I think they have an above average offense, an elite pitching staff and an unspectacular, above average defense.

Sounds like a winning combination to me.

 

[msgkings322]

The Giants played the meetings perfectly. The team is set up very well right now with the only real hole being back-up shortstop. Of course they were going to be quiet at the meetings.

As for their offense, I like it. I think they have an above average offense, an elite pitching staff and an unspectacular, above average defense.

Sounds like a winning combination to me.

That would be their most optimistic case. I think they'll be about average on offense, but that's all you need with this pitching.

Last year they were 8th in the NL in runs scored, right in the middle of the pack. I expect the same this year. With of course the chance to be better or worse, both are plausible.

Also, like most championship teams, we stayed pretty healthy all year and our injuries actually helped us: Rowand goes down, Torres gets to step up, DeRosa -> Burrell, Wellenmeyer -> MadBum (who may have come up anyway).

So I agree, we have the right team to go to war with, no reason we can't do it again if we stay healthy again. I wonder where our odds will be after spring training...probably still not favorites but maybe 5-1?

 

[calsnowskier]

That would be their most optimistic case. I think they'll be about average on offense, but that's all you need with this pitching.

Last year they were 8th in the NL in runs scored, right in the middle of the pack. I expect the same this year. With of course the chance to be better or worse, both are plausible.

Also, like most championship teams, we stayed pretty healthy all year and our injuries actually helped us: Rowand goes down, Torres gets to step up, DeRosa -> Burrell, Wellenmeyer -> MadBum (who may have come up anyway).

So I agree, we have the right team to go to war with, no reason we can't do it again if we stay healthy again. I wonder where our odds will be after spring training...probably still not favorites but maybe 5-1?

I think you have to ignore a lot of the season-long stats for the Giants offense last year.

We started the season with Bowker, DeRosa, Molina, and Rowand in our starting lineup. I think looking at the second half stats is a better representation of the offense, and we were #2 in the NL in August (granted, a freakishly good month, but still...)

I do not expect us to be a murderers row, but with a full season of Posey, Ross, Torres, Sanchez, DeRosa and the introduction of Belt, this is no longer a laughing-stock offense.

 

[Heathbar012]

Agree with everything above except disappointment over missing out on Bartlett and the current line-up being average. I wouldn't have been upset if the Giants got him, but I don't think he has good enough range to be the back-up shortstop (or starting shortstop if Panda poops the bed). If there wouldn't have been prospects involved, and it was a simple signing, I might have felt differently about bringing him aboard. However, the point still remains that he would have to have a resurgence at the plate, and get better with the glove to be worth giving up two mid-level bullpen pitching prospects. To sum up, I would rather have Orlando Cabrera or Edgar Renteria and keep Dan Runzler than lose him for the hope that Bartlett returns to 2009 form.

As far as the line-up, I agree that, when completely healthy, it is above average. Miguel Tejada was one of the few Padres that was hitting in September (.730 OPS with 8 HR and 32 RBI in 59 games with the Pads), and I did not expect that. I would definitely rather have a younger, faster starting shortstop with better range, a solid OBP and the ability to steal a base, but that just wasn't out there. DeRosa coming back is an immediate boost, and if half the things that are being said about Belt are true, the Giants won't even need Panda to get back to form (though it would certainly be nice). Obviously, this is all speculation and contingent on health, but the look of the roster is light years better than this time last year. Rose-tinted World Series Championship glasses will do that for you. .

 

[msgkings322]

I think you have to ignore a lot of the season-long stats for the Giants offense last year.

We started the season with Bowker, DeRosa, Molina, and Rowand in our starting lineup. I think looking at the second half stats is a better representation of the offense, and we were #2 in the NL in August (granted, a freakishly good month, but still...)

I do not expect us to be a murderers row, but with a full season of Posey, Ross, Torres, Sanchez, DeRosa and the introduction of Belt, this is no longer a laughing-stock offense.

I didn't say they were a laughingstock, and anyone who did is wrong. Maybe at the start of the year, but we finished 8th. Not a laughingstock, right in the middle. In fact we would have been 9th in runs scored in the AL...

With health and some luck, and no one regressing, maybe we move up to 5th or 6th in runs scored (in the NL), which would likely mean we win the division by 3+ games.

 

[tzill]

To be sure, I know that the Giants still need more offensive punch, but I have faith that they will be smart about it and not give up too much money or too many prospects, if they choose to get a bat via trade. Anybody feel that Sabean is being too conservative and resting on his laurels? I don't feel that way, but I can see why one would argue that he is.

That's the party line of the former "lunatic fringe" which is now in witness protection b/c Sabes won a Championship. (aside, anyone else notice how doyerfan has shifted the "No WS in SF" taunt to a "it'll be 50+ years til you win another" mantra, as if the doyers have done anything since 88).

Damon Douche leads this brigade "Sabean won a WC, and so he gets a pass, BUT....whine, whine, whine, big bat, missed on Crawford, whine, whine, simper."

Ownership expanded the budget to $120MM and presumably will give Sabes the flexibility to address needs at the trading deadline. I like the old adage that it takes April and May to see what you've got; June and July to see what you need. Sabes is likely thinking he's upgraded over 2010 like this:
1. Full year of Buster
2. Panda will improve
3. Belt will likely push Huff Daddy to LF

Another way to look at it -- starting lineups on opening day:
2010: Rowand, Rent, Panda, Huff, DeRosa, Molina, Bowker, Uribe
2011: Torres, Franchez, Huff, Posey, Tejada, Panda, Ross, Belt

That's improvement at EVERY single batting position with the exception of 8.
We've go the pieces to contend.

 

[tzill]

I've already stated Sabean gets a total free pass from me now for 3 years.

That said, I also think he's doing fine. Our payroll is increasing just keeping this team together, and we really won't be able to make big FA signings until Zito and Rowand are off the books, and even then we may just have to use that $ to keep our pitchers, and Posey.

Sabean is making the right calls, not getting hamstrung with more ridiculous deals (Uribe, Crawford, etc). We are counting on a full year of Posey and Torres, with some help later from Belt and hopefully a better Panda, and a useful DeRosa, to make our offense run well enough to win with our awesome pitching. Our pitching literally can't be improved on. Other than obviously ridiculous notions like a rotation of Lee, Lincecum, Felix, Halladay, and Cain, can we really say there's any way to improve on the SP? And the BP is almost perfect too.

So, no, I don't think he's being to conservative. I think he's being prudent and making the right moves to contend again. He's doing what he shoulda done before signing Rowand and Zito.

Not so sure about that. Timmy could return to Cy form, Sanchez could become more consistent, and most importantly a full year of MadBum is better than 2/3 plus Wellecrapper.

I'd agree that the bully would be tough to improve, though.

 

[tzill]

The Giants played the meetings perfectly. The team is set up very well right now with the only real hole being back-up shortstop. Of course they were going to be quiet at the meetings.

As for their offense, I like it. I think they have an above average offense, an elite pitching staff and an unspectacular, above average defense.

Sounds like a winning combination to me.

::standing on chair, golf clap::

Well played, sir.

Well played.

 

[calsnowskier]

Not so sure about that. Timmy could return to Cy form, Sanchez could become more consistent, and most importantly a full year of MadBum is better than 2/3 plus Wellecrapper.

I'd agree that the bully would be tough to improve, though.

Remove August, and this statement becomes "Timmy could continue his Cy form"

 

[msgkings322]

Not so sure about that. Timmy could return to Cy form, Sanchez could become more consistent, and most importantly a full year of MadBum is better than 2/3 plus Wellecrapper.

I'd agree that the bully would be tough to improve, though.

I just meant within any reasonable discussion, we really literally could not change one of the 5 guys. By reasonable I mean, we obviously are stuck with Zito, and the only pitchers better than any of the other 4 we can't afford (Lee).

I was just making the point that in judging if Sabean is not making enough moves, there's literally no moves to make regarding the pitching.

 

[tzill]

That would be their most optimistic case. I think they'll be about average on offense, but that's all you need with this pitching.

Last year they were 8th in the NL in runs scored, right in the middle of the pack. I expect the same this year. With of course the chance to be better or worse, both are plausible.

Also, like most championship teams, we stayed pretty healthy all year and our injuries actually helped us: Rowand goes down, Torres gets to step up, DeRosa -> Burrell, Wellenmeyer -> MadBum (who may have come up anyway).

So I agree, we have the right team to go to war with, no reason we can't do it again if we stay healthy again. I wonder where our odds will be after spring training...probably still not favorites but maybe 5-1?

First, why WOULDN'T we be optimistic? We're the WORLD FUCKING CHAMPIONS.

Ahem, sorry. I just really like typing that. Shit will never get old.

OK, re: most optimistic projection. I disagree. Here would be the MOST optimistic projection:

Posey: contends for a batting title and MVP 330/380/520
Belt: becomes 2011 version of Posey 305/360/505
Franchez: healthy all year, GG defense, 305/345/440
Tejada: captures one last "spurt year" and plays to 2009 form 310/340/460
Panda: returns to 2009 form 330/390/560
Huff: puts up another 290/390/510 year, garners some MVP votes
Torres: appendix doesn't burst again, 300/400/500 year in the leadoff spot
Ross: returns to 2008 form 260/320/490

Hey, I hear it's magic inside.

 

[msgkings322]

First, why WOULDN'T we be optimistic? We're the WORLD FUCKING CHAMPIONS.

Ahem, sorry. I just really like typing that. Shit will never get old.

OK, re: most optimistic projection. I disagree. Here would be the MOST optimistic projection:

Posey: contends for a batting title and MVP 330/380/520
Belt: becomes 2011 version of Posey 305/360/505
Franchez: healthy all year, GG defense, 305/345/440
Tejada: captures one last "spurt year" and plays to 2009 form 310/340/460
Panda: returns to 2009 form 330/390/560
Huff: puts up another 290/390/510 year, garners some MVP votes
Torres: appendix doesn't burst again, 300/400/500 year in the leadoff spot
Ross: returns to 2008 form 260/320/490

Hey, I hear it's magic inside.

Now THAT'S optimism!

We win 120 games if that happens.

 

[tzill]

Agree with everything above except disappointment over missing out on Bartlett and the current line-up being average. I wouldn't have been upset if the Giants got him, but I don't think he has good enough range to be the back-up shortstop (or starting shortstop if Panda poops the bed). If there wouldn't have been prospects involved, and it was a simple signing, I might have felt differently about bringing him aboard. However, the point still remains that he would have to have a resurgence at the plate, and get better with the glove to be worth giving up two mid-level bullpen pitching prospects. To sum up, I would rather have Orlando Cabrera or Edgar Renteria and keep Dan Runzler than lose him for the hope that Bartlett returns to 2009 form.

As far as the line-up, I agree that, when completely healthy, it is above average. Miguel Tejada was one of the few Padres that was hitting in September (.730 OPS with 8 HR and 32 RBI in 59 games with the Pads), and I did not expect that. I would definitely rather have a younger, faster starting shortstop with better range, a solid OBP and the ability to steal a base, but that just wasn't out there. DeRosa coming back is an immediate boost, and if half the things that are being said about Belt are true, the Giants won't even need Panda to get back to form (though it would certainly be nice). Obviously, this is all speculation and contingent on health, but the look of the roster is light years better than this time last year. Rose-tinted World Series Championship glasses will do that for you. .

You mean, like JJ Hardy?

 

[tzill]

Remove August, and this statement becomes "Timmy could continue his Cy form"

Indeed. Timmy could be better in 2011 simply by NOT having a monthlong implosion.

 

[tzill]

I just meant within any reasonable discussion, we really literally could not change one of the 5 guys. By reasonable I mean, we obviously are stuck with Zito, and the only pitchers better than any of the other 4 we can't afford (Lee).

I was just making the point that in judging if Sabean is not making enough moves, there's literally no moves to make regarding the pitching.

Ahhh...gotcha. And I agree.

 

[Heathbar012]

You mean, like JJ Hardy?

Turns out they would've had to trade for him, too (as you know). Way to conveniently leave the "can steal a base" part un-bolded. . That certainly doesn't describe Hardy, but it has never described Tejada, Cabrera or Rent (maybe early on, but briefly). Hardy is a better base runner than all of them, though. Yes, it would've been nice to grab him, but again, it likely would've cost Runzler.

 

[tzill]

Turns out they would've had to trade for him, too (as you know). Way to conveniently leave the "can steal a base" part un-bolded. . That certainly doesn't describe Hardy, but it has never described Tejada, Cabrera or Rent (maybe early on, but briefly). Hardy is a better base runner than all of them, though. Yes, it would've been nice to grab him, but again, it likely would've cost Runzler.

You're probably right. I'd take Hardy with Miggy as a backup over Runzler in the pen, though.