GDT 7/31 Giants vs Mets

[iHATEdodgers]

It's obvious we have different considerations about what is important about this game. I do agree with one thing though, 33% is too high for a major league hitter. And Belt, who is at 27%, needs to bring it down a bit - he's 7% higher than the NL average. Just to put things in perspective.

BTW, RBI is the least indicative stat I can think of. I pay zero attention to it.

It's 27.8% per plate appearance not per AB (32.4%) for Belt just to be clear versus 9.3 and 8.6 for Scutaro.

RBIs are indicative of plenty things you obviously are too dismissive to see.

Yeah, all that has been quantified decades ago. Those are the wrong arguments to make. The difference in expected run production between a K and any other out is is around .01 or .02 runs per out. So a player who is 100 strikeouts worse than average means that he costs 1 to 2 runs a year, or IOW roughly 15% of one win.

This is an invalid comparison. You shouldnt compare strikeouts to other types of outs. The valid comparison would be striking out compared to making contact. If you strike out you are out 100% of the time except on a passed ball etc. if you make contact no matter how weak you have an infinitely better chance of not making an out, I will concede you also have a better chance of the DP or even a TP. The pluses outweigh the negatives by far I would say. This is why I prefer players who tend to make contact over those who strike out a lot.

Anyway that's only part of the puzzle with Belt, his lack of power is another, his getting down on himself is another, I would love it if he turned it around though. Anyway as it is right now the Giants offense is better off with Belt on the bench.

 

[mistgl]

That bottom of the order is just brutally bad.

 

[gp956]

It's 27.8% per plate appearance not per AB (32.4%) for Belt just to be clear versus 9.3 and 8.6 for Scutaro.

You don't calculate K rate by AB. High walk guys will always come out looking worse.

This is an invalid comparison. You shouldnt compare strikeouts to other types of outs. The valid comparison would be striking out compared to making contact. If you strike out you are out 100% of the time except on a passed ball etc. if you make contact no matter how weak you have an infinitely better chance of not making an out,

So you're saying we should compare striking out to sometimes getting a hit? Why should we do that? Think about what is being stated here: if two players have the same batting average, power etc, but one strikes-out for all his outs and the other makes his outs in play, the difference in production will be of the order already presented, i.e. minimal.

This is why I prefer players who tend to make contact over those who strike out a lot. Anyway that's only part of the puzzle with Belt, his lack of power is another, his getting down on himself is another, I would love it if he turned it around though. Anyway as it is right now the Giants offense is better off with Belt on the bench.

I prefer players who produce. Your error here is in over-weighting the negative impact of strikeouts on overall production. I also don't think you are appreciating that attempting to lower a K rate by swinging at slop early in the count will result in lower production, and possibly a retardation of the learning curve for a young player. All that aside, the bottom line is that Belt has been more productive than Scutaro and Sanchez. That's just a fact, and no theoretical musing by you alters that reality.

 

[iHATEdodgers]

You don't calculate K rate by AB. High walk guys will always come out looking worse.



So you're saying we should compare striking out to sometimes getting a hit? Why should we do that? Think about what is being stated here: if two players have the same batting average, power etc, but one strikes-out for all his outs and the other makes his outs in play, the difference in production will be of the order already presented, i.e. minimal.



I prefer players who produce. Your error here is in over-weighting the negative impact of strikeouts on overall production. I also don't think you are appreciating that attempting to lower a K rate by swinging at slop early in the count will result in lower production, and possibly a retardation of the learning curve for a young player. All that aside, the bottom line is that Belt has been more productive than Scutaro and Sanchez. That's just a fact, and no theoretical musing by you alters that reality.

Wow this has gotten very ESPNish... I don't mean just you. I like guys who make contact over guys who strike out without any power to boot. That's my point.

I don't care about the AB vs PA thing - I was only clarifying that my original 33% was based on ABs didn't want it to look like I was exaggerating to make a point, like if someone said that Scutaro "fails at a much greater rate" than Belt.

Here are the facts as I see them.

Scutaro .277 avg .330 obp is good. Belt .237 avg .340 obp is not as good although I appreciate the high obp relative to the crappy avg. It's even worse when you consider that nearly all his power was flexed in 1 week, and he goes for months at a time hitting .200 or less with absolutely no power.

I like consistency, I like a higher avg versus higher obp, I like players that make good contact versus those who K a lot. Nothing earth shattering there.

I disagree that it is absolute fact that Belt is having a better season than either Scutaro or Sanchez, not because I'm trapped in an alternate universe in my mom's basement, but because I honestly think Belt is having a terrible season in comparison - and by no means is he having a "far better" season than the other guys.

You are overlooking some pretty obvious things I think especially the one week of power and months long .200 or less output. I am overlooking some of those nerdy statistician numbers... So I'm going back to real life now I have to take the garbage out.

 

[gp956]

I like guys who make contact over guys who strike out without any power to boot. That's my point.

And I'm "out" agnostic.

Here are the facts as I see them.

Scutaro .277 avg .330 obp is good. Belt .237 avg .340 obp is not as good although I appreciate the high obp relative to the crappy avg. It's even worse when you consider that nearly all his power was flexed in 1 week, and he goes for months at a time hitting .200 or less with absolutely no power.

And yet Belt has a 104 OPS+ to Scutaro's 79. Your "facts" may be incomplete. Coors field effect is in play here, he hasn't been good away from there. You might want to really look into those facts to see if you can suss out a reason Scutaro's coors stats should be applied without adjustment to AT&T. Look into Belt's too.

 

[iHATEdodgers]

And I'm "out" agnostic.




And yet Belt has a 104 OPS+ to Scutaro's 79. Your "facts" may be incomplete. Coors field effect is in play here, he hasn't been good away from there. You might want to really look into those facts to see if you can suss out a reason Scutaro's coors stats should be applied without adjustment to AT&T. Look into Belt's too.

My facts are incomplete as much as yours are... Calculate his OPS+ without that one series in Houston where he flexed like Barry... I don't know what it is but I can tell you that his OPS for the season would only be around .650 without that. One series he was Ruthian the other 33 he's been far below average and below what Scutaro or Sanchez consistently bring to the plate. So once again as I see it is definitely NOT a fact that he has been "far better" than either Sanchez or Scutaro - for 1 series he was better than anybody, the rest of the season he's been closer to our other Brandon in terms of offensive production.

By the way Scutaro is almost exactly on his offensive career norms this season including Colorado and yes his splits home/away 2012 are good/bad but no more than Belt's...

Regardless when Pablo is back I imagine he might take a game a week away from Belt and Posey will take another and maybe Pill too, so we'll be seeing him maybe 50% at 1B, I think that speaks to the level of confidence Bochy has in his offensive output better than anything. Still hope he breaks out and takes 1B for his own but after sifting through his stats I'm even more down on him than I used to be. But he's young hopefully he's taking the Matt Williams route not the Damon Minor route.

 

[gp956]

My facts are incomplete as much as yours are... Calculate his OPS+ without that one series in Houston where he flexed like Barry... I don't know what it is but I can tell you that his OPS for the season would only be around .650 without that.

You don't get to arbitrarily decide what series count.

One series he was Ruthian the other 33 he's been far below average

This is ambiguous. Are you asserting that without the one series his overall performance is "far below average," or is the assertion that Belt hasn't had a "hot" period at any other point in the year? Both of those assertions are false, btw. You're going a long way down a rabbit hole to rebut a simple assertion made by me. A simple "I disagree" would have been fine with me - it's not a big deal - but when you start making fundamentally flawed analysis to rebut me, I'm going to respond to those flaws.

So once again as I see it is definitely NOT a fact that he has been "far better" than either Sanchez or Scutaro - for 1 series he was better than anybody, the rest of the season he's been closer to our other Brandon in terms of offensive production.

Show me, don't tell me. Do the work. Show me your data analysis, and if you don't use commonly accepted things like league and park adjustments, explain why they don't apply.

By the way Scutaro is almost exactly on his offensive career norms this season including Colorado

No. His career norm is an OPS+ of 92, he's at 79 this year.

and yes his splits home/away 2012 are good/bad but no more than Belt's...

You get that Belt's home splits, i.e. at AT&T, are comparatively good, right? While Scutaro, who usually has even splits, was good at Coors. That's why his OPS+ is poor, and why he comes up looking far short of Belt. His "good" stats are discounted, while Belt's are enhanced.

What you were supposed to do was to explain to my why Scutaro's Coors performance should not be discounted, i.e. because he hits the ball on the ground most of time. Or some other plausible argument, such as asserting the "reverse coors effect," whereby playing primarily at coors conditions hitters to straighter pitches. Hence when they go on the road, i.e. at normal air density, they are "surprised" by the increased break on pitches.

Still hope he breaks out and takes 1B for his own but after sifting through his stats I'm even more down on him than I used to be.

To be frank, I don't think you're disciplined enough in your process to sift through stats without letting your biases creep in.

 

[iHATEdodgers]

Pretty funny you think I’m biased against Belt/or for Scutaro I guess, when I’m the one with the Baby Giraffes as my profile pic! I’m going to stay out of the snide commentary that you are slipping into… and just say that this is not a treatise it’s an internet conversation.

As far as my latest points I personally find it interesting that Belt really only flexed power for one series out of 34 so far this season, to me that’s an outlier (for this season only, I know he has power I don’t know where it went though) and it is such an outlier that when you consider the rest of his body of work has produced only a .659 OPS that has to be disappointing – or disconcerting – to any Giants fan. Maybe not to you but I would think the majority of fans see it this way, and judging by some of the other comments in this thread that’s true. No big deal if you don’t think so, but it’s not a crazy thing to bring up, to me it is a completely valid point. You don’t want to see it that way, ok.

Belt has been pretty terrible at home if you take away that one series against Houston… I know you hate that, but an outlier is an outlier! I’d like to remove an equally horrid performance as an outlier but the problem is he’s had plenty of O’fer and 1fer10 series’ at home so that’s really more the norm than anything else. To me that’s a valid take, I like consistency and outliers don't hold a ton of weight with me - you disagree sure thing that’s fine. My position is incorrect to you but it’s not a universal fact that it is incorrect. I don’t think OPS+ considers consistency and outliers like that. But you can’t have a stat for everything.

As for Scutaro his career splits are very even home/away, month to month, ballpark vs ballpark are pretty even which remains my point that I like his consistency. I see you are just talking about 2012 here and the Coors effect, I get it, I’d say it has more to do with him just being more comfortable at home seeing as how he only sported a .397 SLG in Denver. Anyway I never intended it to be a Scutaro vs Belt thing, more like Posey playing more at 1st in lieu of Belt (after Pablo comes back) and Sanchez catching, personally I feel that is a better lineup, but I'd still like to see Posey behind the dish most of the time. I’m not advocating for Scutaro as a starter he’s a very good backup/spot starter though. I still don’t think however that it is accurate to say that Belt is having a “much better” year than Scutaro. Slightly better based on one statistical outlook ok, but looking at it from my perspective I just see it differently. You don’t see it no prob dude.

 

[gp956]

Pretty funny you think I’m biased against Belt/or for Scutaro I guess, when I’m the one with the Baby Giraffes as my profile pic!

I'm not stating you're biased for a particular player. But you are definitely biased towards a type of player. You've stated it yourself.

I’m going to stay out of the snide commentary that you are slipping into… and just say that this is not a treatise it’s an internet conversation.

I think you need to re-read your own comments, and not just to me.

As far as my latest points I personally find it interesting that Belt really only flexed power for one series out of 34 so far this season

I don't. He's been asked to change his swing at the major league level. That's a pretty hard thing to do. I think it's incredible that he hasn't completely fallen apart.

I know he has power I don’t know where it went though) and it is such an outlier that when you consider the rest of his body of work has produced only a .659 OPS that has to be disappointing – or disconcerting – to any Giants fan. Maybe not to you but I would think the majority of fans see it this way, and judging by some of the other comments in this thread that’s true.

I don't think you're stating that being disappointed in a player should influence you to play a player who is producing less. But that is one interpretation of your comments. I think what you really mean is you expect Belt to produce at level consistent with his slumps. And that's fine, although you haven't really presented any evidence to support that belief.

I still don’t think however that it is accurate to say that Belt is having a “much better” year than Scutaro. Slightly better based on one statistical outlook ok, but looking at it from my perspective I just see it differently. You don’t see it no prob dude.

LOL If you look up-thread, you'll see you did have a problem with me stating my opinion about Belt playing in the average situation. Really, this discussion went off the rails because you could't comprehend the "strikeouts are just outs" statement.

 

[gp956]

Ah...I see you made some big edits to your original post

Belt has been pretty terrible at home if you take away that one series against Houston… I know you hate that, but an outlier is an outlier! I’d like to remove an equally horrid performance as an outlier but the problem is he’s had plenty of O’fer and 1fer10 series’ at home so that’s really more the norm than anything else. To me that’s a valid take, I like consistency and outliers don't hold a ton of weight with me - you disagree sure thing that’s fine. My position is incorrect to you but it’s not a universal fact that it is incorrect.

If you believe things because events that happen during a full moon phase don't count, well, that is up to you. I guess it's comforting to make up your own reality, where if you look at things in just the right way, everything is as it should be, but don't ask me to buy into those things. Ain't gonna happen.

I don’t think OPS+ considers consistency and outliers like that.

How can it not? It's simply a league and park adjusted OPS. Have we come this far to discover that you don't know this?

As for Scutaro his career splits are very even home/away, month to month, ballpark vs ballpark are pretty even which remains my point that I like his consistency.

I like consistency too. But I don't ignore everything else.

see you are just talking about 2012 here and the Coors effect, I get it, I’d say it has more to do with him just being more comfortable at home seeing as how he only sported a .397 SLG in Denver.

ah....finally a ray of light.

 

[iHATEdodgers]

Ah...I see you made some big edits to your original post




If you believe things because events that happen during a full moon phase don't count, well, that is up to you. I guess it's comforting to make up your own reality, where if you look at things in just the right way, everything is as it should be, but don't ask me to buy into those things. Ain't gonna happen.



How can it not? It's simply a league and park adjusted OPS. Have we come this far to discover that you don't know this?




I like consistency too. But I don't ignore everything else.

[QUOTEI see you are just talking about 2012 here and the Coors effect, I get it, I’d say it has more to do with him just being more comfortable at home seeing as how he only sported a .397 SLG in Denver.

ah....finally a ray of light.[/QUOTE]

Dude I don't know what you're talking about - I didn't edit shit. And I haven't been snarky with anyone else in this thread, and honestly now you're beyond your usual lacking-in-interpersonal-skills-self. Have a nice day.

 

[gp956]

Dude I don't know what you're talking about - I didn't edit shit. And I haven't been snarky with anyone else in this thread, and honestly now you're beyond your usual lacking-in-interpersonal-skills-self. Have a nice day.

No big deal. You have a small window of time to make changes without the "Edit" flag showing up. Perhaps as I sliced it and diced it in my response I chopped off a bit.

 

[gp956]

With Scutaro not embarrassing himself at 3B, I'd guess Bochy will have the option to play Panda at 1B, when he gets back. Let's not get too down on Belt, yes he has looked terrible a lot of time, but he's still having a much better year than Scutaro.

Such a simple little opinion, and now someone is all butt hurt over it. Got to love the internet.

 

[iHATEdodgers]

No big deal. You have a small window of time to make changes without the "Edit" flag showing up. Perhaps as I sliced it and diced it in my response I chopped off a bit.

Post 148 is posted exactly as I wrote it.

 

[gp956]

Post 148 is posted exactly as I wrote it.