Garza to Brewers

[JohnU]

4-year deal. Milwaukee was a cinch to go after pitching, so Garza was the automatic plum.
I look for them to try to land some more relief pitching.
The NL-C has become a 4-team race for sure and I can't be certain that the Cubs won't win 75.

What this means to me is that the need to win 97 games is overstated. I think 92 might get it done.

 

[Redsfan1507]

Garza is one of those guys that akways looks better than his results. IMO, would have been better in a big park, but usually winds up in small ones. He's also hurt a lot. The only pitcher Milwaukee knows is cold and served from a keg....they're assured to have plenty of those, and not enough of the 2 legged variety.

The Cardinals are sound. The Pirates are where the Reds were in 2010, meaning they have questions with impact positions without depth to handle much adversity. The Reds IMO, took a step back to that description too, with the exception of potentially one of the deepest starting rotations in the NL. If in going to be short, I don't want it to be with pitching, so the Reds are fortunate there, if they stay healthy and get a LHSP in the mix.

Win totals in the NLC are tough to predict, but better win 90 to be in the conversation, and better be in the conversation by the trade deadline to avoid the salary dump. I don't think the Cubs or Brewers qualify yet...and with 3 division winners and 2 play in contenders, a lot of teams think they have a chance right now, but STL, ATL, LAD are frontrunners IMO.

 

[JohnU]

That play-in game has adjusted a lot of thinking.

2 years ago, the Phils and Brewers dumped people on the deadline only to find themselves a couple of games out on the last day. A hot September can take a team from .500 to .520 and that's worth thinking about printing playoff tickets.

 

[Redsfan1507]

The real problem right now is teams think they have to pay what the market will bear to too many players, for contract lengths their budget won't bear. Teams like the Reds need to invest in the farm, and beware of a big, long term deal that either handcuffs them to mediocrity, forced sale of the team, or yearly salary dump getting less than impact value in discount desperation deals. The jury may be out on Votto in later years, but he was the best risk for high reward in a long time. They have generally picked the right guys to lock up, no complaints there...I do think they've missed on several lesser players for too much cash though. Their farm is still cyclic, proof there is still improvement needed there. Garza has all the warning signs of a regrettable contract to be dumped later.

 

[Ryanballa]

The deal is not done,he is not a Brewer yet. But I have never really liked Garza, I think he is overrated. I watched him pitch a few games last year with Rangers and he just didnt look to good,and he really hasn't looked the same since he left Tampa. He is however a strikeout kinda pitcher. But IMO he is not worth the money that is being talking with the Brewers about.

 

[JohnU]

Compared to 2013, I think Roenicke is just hoping for 25 decent starts.
Milwaukee has some horsepower, just not much defense or pitching. It's hard to fix both of those problems all at once.

 

[Redsfan1507]

I have zero confidence with teams that play bad D behind mediocre pitching...even with the typical Yankees type of lineup. When even Murderers Row makes outs 2/3 of the time, I gotta believe odds are on the pitchers side, especially if they are tough, and the D isn't turning outs into baserunners...it's hard enough to out score another MLB team without spotting the opposition a run or two they didnt earn. All else equal, good pitching usually beats good hitting, but mediocre pitching and bad D are even harder to make up with hitting- the other team usually has a pitcher and lineup too.

 

[packerzrule]

I have zero confidence with teams that play bad D behind mediocre pitching...

Agreed, but the Brewers have a marked improvement in their defensive middle and that is where you have to start. Still questionable at 1st and RF, but I think their D will surprise a lot of people this season. Hell, I've been wrong before but having visions of sugar plums dancing in your head is the what the off season brings. In any event, just don't to put Rickie Weeks anywhere in the lineup.

Looking forward to the beginning of the season and chatting with you folks.

 

[JohnU]

Looking forward to the beginning of the season and chatting with you folks.

We are primed.

Hell, the Brewers have Scooter Gennett, who's a real nice player.

All I know about 1B was that Lucroy tried very very hard.

 

[Redsfan1507]

The BRM was built around a team of HOF that played gold glove D at 4-5 positions, and hit like murderers row, a deep bullpen, and a patched rotation. Later, our Reds were built for several decades on a few guys slugging homers, 1-2 guys playing D, and a pitching staff to be released later, and it didnt work too well. They built a stadium for lefty hitters prediminantly gone now, and discovered pitching and D, one potential HOF hitter, and one legit homer source. They fill in from the farm and a revolving door of last gasp vets. One would think results would be spotty, but 3 of the last 4 years have been pretty good, if your just looking to sell tickets...

I've come to believe that the more consistent the farm is, especially pitching, the better chances of winning are...even the monied Cubs and Cards use the farm more than free agency. Have too. The Brewers pitching may have improved, but anytime a team signs mid to late career FA like Lohse and Garza, it tells me they chose to invest in temporary back of the rotation guys because they don't have any farm answers ready. As long as they get value (hard to do) until they are, they have to rely on bats and gloves to make up. Weeks dissapointed, Fielder and Hart fled. Braun is suspension suspect now. Someone looking should notice the good glove and wheels, light bat Latino SS that suddenly hit like Braun looks like he worked at Biogenisis.

Reds and Brewers both have issues. Predominantly, the Cardinals, Pirates and each other. Everyone can't play the Cubs every day.

 

[JohnU]

The Cubs will probably play at least .450 ball this year, meaning they will at least win 4 out of 10.
That's not a team you want hanging around in the middle of a pennant race.

I listened to a Chris Welch interview on Redlegnation.com and he said flatly that there is NOBODY in the Reds farm system who can help this team now, except for Billy Hamilton who is going to make the team.

That isn't to say there are not a couple of guys who can help in 2 or 3 seasons. Just not now.

St. Louis has invested in older draft choices, fast-tracked them into knowing how to move to the top level and prospered. Pittsburgh has earned points from having suffered for 20 years and gotten good draft picks as a result.

Cincy wasted money on guys like Alonso and Francisco because they always thought they needed a club to hit the RF porch. Sadly these guys play 1st base. When Votto signed forever, the need to draft Alonso and Francisco suddenly stopped being important.

Now we can get better players. That may pay off more than it looks, that Votto contract. It reduces the need to scout guys who can't find any leather.

 

[Redsfan1507]

Sounds good, but normally, they don't draft by position. They draft by best talent available. If there is a kid that plays 1b and projects to hit .290 /20 as a MLB player, they'll draft him over a high school SS that projects to hit .259 as a AAA SS, even if they need a SS, because by the time either is in MLB 5 years later, the MLB team has changed, maybe Votto is traded for an all star SS. Good organizations start sorting pretended and contenders by AA, and development staff should start moving them to positions they can occupy at the MLB level. Hamilton, Frazier, Phillips, Eric Davis and Bronson Arroyo were HS SS's that were moved to better use. There are plenty of mistakes too- remember Micah Owings ? He was a 1b that may still hold the all time Georgia HS HR record, and some genius decided his 85 mph arm made him a better player as a pitcher, instead of a hitter...who hit more HS homers than anyone in Ga. EVER has. Go figure.

 

[JohnU]

I suppose that's true about the talent ... just wonder if the Reds go after Alonso if they know what Votto offered? I would have to be in the reconstruction stage of the drafting process. I know there was a backass effort to get Votto into left field once -- he evidently didn't go for it.

I think the kid the Reds drafted No. 1 this year is either an outfielder or a pitcher and I can't recall which he is better at.