For those of us coveting the big time FA bat

[msgkings322]

The St. Louis Cardinals, Albert Pujols, Free Agency, and Jose Reyes by Jonah Keri - Grantland

Pujols is on the decline even now, whomever signs him for the next 8 years is going to be really really sorry unless they win a ring with him immediately. They will still be stuck paying for it well after he's done his part (Aubrey Huff anyone?)

Fielder is younger so he may be better for longer at first, but Pujols' story shows what Fielder might start to look like in years 5-8 of his deal...

 

[msgkings322]

I particularly liked this footnote in the article, and I +1 it:

"That same year, Barry Bonds swung at a microscopic 8.8 percent of pitches outside the strike zone. Think about that. Bonds led the league with a .538 wOBA that year, in one of the most potent offensive seasons in baseball history. He almost never got a pitch to hit. But rather than hacking at a pitch out of the zone and rolling a grounder to second, he waited for that one pitch he could hammer. Bonds walked 232 times in 2004 (120 intentional, many more semi-intentional) and struck out just 41 times. I know, I know, Bonds' legacy is tainted in everyone's eyes, and even today we still jump to conclusions whenever a player sees a sudden spike in power. But just for fun, go look at Bonds' 2001 through 2004 seasons. By all means, lament Bonds' career path if you like. But there's an excellent chance we'll never see anything like those four seasons again in our lifetime. That's sad."

 

[SF11704]

I think you have to do your homework and you also have to be somewhat lucky with your selection. I remember when Granderson hit the market. I knew he was a decentb CF. Had good power and put up decent numbers. Never thought about him as a key piece of the puzzle. After watching Torres this year - Granderson looks like a centerpiece. I think both Pujolos and Fielder are really big gambles at this stage of their game. I love Reyes (I live in NY and see him quite a bit) but he's so damn injury prone. Reyes is an electric player. I think he is the type of player that can motivate a team. We don't seem to have that this year. I just don't see a team leader. Last year I actually thought it was shared by quite a few guys. Ross, Burrell, Huff and the pen. They all seemed to rally around each other. Just don't see any fire this year. Don't see either AP or PF bringing that to the plate either.

 

[Mays-Fan]

I would be against pursuing a big-time FA bat. To do so, you would have to outbid everyone else, and by definition, end up overpaying for a player to end up trying to hit in arguably the most unfriendly hitter's park in the history of MLB.

I think 2010 showed that we don't need a superstar hitter to win it all. We just need the hitters to stay healthy and perform reasonably up to expectation.

That being said, I think in the offseason it would be worthwhile to look closely and objectively at our hitting instructors and our conditioning coaches/routines. The common thread this year is that virtually all the hitters are having a down year. I know ultimately it is the player who swings the bat, but coaches are a part of that - if not, then why have them at all? As to conditioning (and it associated impact on injuries), with its relatively cold summers and gametimes, SF requires a unique approach to conditioning that I am not convinced we are undertaking.

 

[the_broom]

I would be against pursuing a big-time FA bat. To do so, you would have to outbid everyone else, and by definition, end up overpaying for a player to end up trying to hit in arguably the most unfriendly hitter's park in the history of MLB.

I think 2010 showed that we don't need a superstar hitter to win it all. We just need the hitters to stay healthy and perform reasonably up to expectation.

That being said, I think in the offseason it would be worthwhile to look closely and objectively at our hitting instructors and our conditioning coaches/routines. The common thread this year is that virtually all the hitters are having a down year. I know ultimately it is the player who swings the bat, but coaches are a part of that - if not, then why have them at all? As to conditioning (and it associated impact on injuries), with its relatively cold summers and gametimes, SF requires a unique approach to conditioning that I am not convinced we are undertaking.

I said something very similar to this in a thread a while back....totally agree...

 

[ColinCoby]

I would be against pursuing a big-time FA bat. To do so, you would have to outbid everyone else, and by definition, end up overpaying for a player to end up trying to hit in arguably the most unfriendly hitter's park in the history of MLB.

I think 2010 showed that we don't need a superstar hitter to win it all. We just need the hitters to stay healthy and perform reasonably up to expectation.

That being said, I think in the offseason it would be worthwhile to look closely and objectively at our hitting instructors and our conditioning coaches/routines. The common thread this year is that virtually all the hitters are having a down year. I know ultimately it is the player who swings the bat, but coaches are a part of that - if not, then why have them at all? As to conditioning (and it associated impact on injuries), with its relatively cold summers and gametimes, SF requires a unique approach to conditioning that I am not convinced we are undertaking.

The Giants might not need a superstar, but can this lineup score enough runs next year to be league average in runs scored?

CF free agent?
Sanchez
Posey
Panda
Huff
Nate
Belt
Crawford

I'm not sure. Still not enough speed or power. We'd be counting on Huff to perform closer to his 2010 numbers, Posey to return with a vengence, Belt to show he belongs, Sanchez to come back healthy...

Of course, you overpay for Reyes, and maybe we regret it three years down the road, but the lineup looks much more formidable.

Reyes
Sanchez
Posey
Panda
Nate
Huff
Belt
Torres? Ross?

Should be an interesting offseason.

 

[mistgl]

The Giants might not need a superstar, but can this lineup score enough runs next year to be league average in runs scored?

CF free agent?
Sanchez
Posey
Panda
Huff
Nate
Belt
Crawford

I'm not sure. Still not enough speed or power. We'd be counting on Huff to perform closer to his 2010 numbers, Posey to return with a vengence, Belt to show he belongs, Sanchez to come back healthy...

Of course, you overpay for Reyes, and maybe we regret it three years down the road, but the lineup looks much more formidable.

Reyes
Sanchez
Posey
Panda
Nate
Huff
Belt
Torres? Ross?

Should be an interesting offseason.

Dude, FUCK Reyes!

He has missed 200 games in the last 3 years alone. You don't throw 9 figures at that kind of an injury history. We wouldn't need to wait 3 years to regret the decision, because he would miss 30 or so games with his annual pulled hamstring half way through his first season with us.

I'm sorry, but Fielder is the best option out there. You can say he's fat all you want, but that hasn't stopped him from killing it the last 5 years. He is still in his prime and we would have him till his mid 30's. Even if he turns into nothing but a power threat and the avg. drops later on, it's still better than the shit we're running out there. Besides, we're overpaying for vets as is. Why not at least get 4 years of production before?

 

[msgkings322]

Dude, FUCK Reyes!

He has missed 200 games in the last 3 years alone. You don't throw 9 figures at that kind of an injury history. We wouldn't need to wait 3 years to regret the decision, because he would miss 30 or so games with his annual pulled hamstring half way through his first season with us.

I'm sorry, but Fielder is the best option out there. You can say he's fat all you want, but that hasn't stopped him from killing it the last 5 years. He is still in his prime and we would have him till his mid 30's. Even if he turns into nothing but a power threat and the avg. drops later on, it's still better than the shit we're running out there. Besides, we're overpaying for vets as is. Why not at least get 4 years of production before?

Because in a few years we're ripping Sabean for handcuffing the team with his contract, a la Zito's.

Fielder is the best mega FA choice, I agree, but I don't think signing the mega FA is the way to go with this team, and I think all evidence shows the management and owners think so too. But they shouldn't skimp on the CF and they should maybe consider trying to get a SS (maybe for Durty and Crawford in a trade?), so Colin's prediction isn't as sure.

If we have no super mega bats but 1-8 solid to good ones, we should be able to score league average with good defense (assuming health, as 2011 amply proved)

 

[ColinCoby]

Good posts guys. We'll be speculating and debating all offseason.

I don't know what I fear more: overpaying for a free agent big bat, or counting on Posey's return and filler to get the offense back to respectability. A risk either way.

 

[Mays-Fan]

The Giants might not need a superstar, but can this lineup score enough runs next year to be league average in runs scored?

CF free agent?
Sanchez
Posey
Panda
Huff
Nate
Belt
Crawford

I'm not sure. Still not enough speed or power. We'd be counting on Huff to perform closer to his 2010 numbers, Posey to return with a vengence, Belt to show he belongs, Sanchez to come back healthy...

Of course, you overpay for Reyes, and maybe we regret it three years down the road, but the lineup looks much more formidable.

Reyes
Sanchez
Posey
Panda
Nate
Huff
Belt
Torres? Ross?

Should be an interesting offseason.

I agree - there are too many weaknesses and too many question marks in a 2012 lineup where we stand pat. I could see us making some tactical acquisitions. Re-signing Keppinger. Franchez is too fragile to count on him playing 150+ games. Getting a quality backup catcher if one of our prospects isn't ready. And maybe signing another OF not named Beltran - I like Ross as a person, not so much as a player.

Re SS - if I counted correctly, in the 50 games that Brandon Crawford made an appearance, we went 29-21. All of these were without Buster Posey in the lineup. Maybe BC didn't hit well, but we won ballgames when he played. Might be a statistical fluke, but I don't think so.

And I know there are some Torres-haters here, perhaps deservedly so. But I would submit that there is a good chance he has been playing hurt, as in he never fully recovered from his early season Achilles injury. I am looking for him to bounce back in 2012. His 2010 numbers were not a fluke, IMHO - they were an extension of his 2009 season. But I do wish someone would convince him to use a smaller bat.

 

[msgkings322]

Good posts guys. We'll be speculating and debating all offseason.

I don't know what I fear more: overpaying for a free agent big bat, or counting on Posey's return and filler to get the offense back to respectability. A risk either way.

Agreed, as I mentioned before, if you are the mega spenders you don't even have to think about it. GMing at our level ain't easy.

I hope there's a third choice: Posey's and Sanchez's return +more than filler at CF and SS

 

[mistgl]

Agreed, as I mentioned before, if you are the mega spenders you don't even have to think about it. GMing at our level ain't easy.

I hope there's a third choice: Posey's and Sanchez's return +more than filler at CF and SS

I wasn't saying Fielder or die, just that he is the one to throw money at if thats the route they want to go.

What ever the FO decides to do, next year we have to be all in. I know a lot of people on here seem to think Cain taking a home count discount is a lock, but I wouldn't bet on it. And if he is unwilling to negotiate till the OS AND we suck again, then they better trade his ass. Same goes with Lincecum in '13.

If those two walk and all we end up with is comp picks, I don't think words will be able to express how furious I will be.

 

[OzzieGiant]

Re SS - if I counted correctly, in the 50 games that Brandon Crawford made an appearance, we went 29-21. All of these were without Buster Posey in the lineup. Maybe BC didn't hit well, but we won ballgames when he played. Might be a statistical fluke, but I don't think so.

I dont think so either - IMO the difference in his defense and the statues was FAR greater then the difference between their offense and it cost us games.

Not sure that means we should settle for him for next year though, as it probably says more about how bad the SS'd we trotted out there were than what Crawford actually bought to the table. I would however like to see him get 80% of the remaining starts to help decide. OC should be sent packing NOW.

 

[Mays-Fan]

I dont think so either - IMO the difference in his defense and the statues was FAR greater then the difference between their offense and it cost us games.

Not sure that means we should settle for him for next year though, as it probably says more about how bad the SS'd we trotted out there were than what Crawford actually bought to the table. I would however like to see him get 80% of the remaining starts to help decide. OC should be sent packing NOW.

Agreed. IMHO, it will be a challenge to justify the cost of any added WAR over Crawford, given the likely options at FA SS, and esp given our constrained payroll. And he will likely improve as a hitter (can't get much worse). I like your idea of using the rest of the season to see if he can cut it. Same for Belt. While we are at it, might as well shut Wilson down as well.

 

[calsnowskier]

Agreed. IMHO, it will be a challenge to justify the cost of any added WAR over Crawford, given the likely options at FA SS, and esp given our constrained payroll. And he will likely improve as a hitter (can't get much worse). I like your idea of using the rest of the season to see if he can cut it. Same for Belt. While we are at it, might as well shut Wilson down as well.

We need to shut down darn near the entire rotation. Unfortunately, if you count Zito and Sanchez, we only have 8 sp's on the 40 man, so a full shut down is not possible.

I would like to see surkamp given a full slot for the rest of the year, and shut down timmeh. Maybe give Runz a few more starts?

 

[TKellion]

CF-Torres
2B-Sanchez
3B-Sandoval
1B-Huff
C- Posey
RF-Schierholtz
LF-Belt
SS-Crawford

This is what our lineup looks like right now.Sandoval, Posey and Sanchez are the only consistent hitters.The rest struggled for consistency or just plain sucked this year We need to give all the vets there headstone for this season and see who can hit at this level from AA and AAA.It is a shame that Sabean wont bring Brown up too.



CF-Ford
2B-Culberson
3B-Sandoval
1B-Pill
LF-Belt
RF-Peguero
C- Sanchez
SS-Crawford

Just let the kids play and see who belongs on this team next season beforeyou worry about who we sign in the offseason.

 

[calsnowskier]

CF-Torres
2B-Sanchez
3B-Sandoval
1B-Huff
C- Posey
RF-Schierholtz
LF-Belt
SS-Crawford

This is what our lineup looks like right now.Sandoval, Posey and Sanchez are the only consistent hitters.The rest struggled for consistency or just plain sucked this year We need to give all the vets there headstone for this season and see who can hit at this level from AA and AAA.It is a shame that Sabean wont bring Brown up too.



CF-Ford
2B-Culberson
3B-Sandoval
1B-Pill
LF-Belt
RF-Peguero
C- Sanchez
SS-Crawford

Just let the kids play and see who belongs on this team next season beforeyou worry about who we sign in the offseason.

Good post.

However, I have VERY little faith that Ford can ever be anything more than a pinch runner / defensive replacement, so I would rather see Peggy get play in CF since he has at least an outside shot at the job next year.

I also do not see Culberson doing anything more than Rohlinger, so there is no need in adding him to the 40 and calling him up. Lets give Keppy the job for the rest of the season and get fully entrenched in this team. He will be a 1/3 starter at 2B next year, so he needs to be given the chance to get the respect of the rest of the clubhouse.

Although my hopes for Pill are not very high, I agree that we should see what he can do. Heck, he has destroyed AAA and he isnt that old. Stranger things have happened.

When Nate gets back, he needs to be given as many ABs as possible. He has blossomed this year, and deserves the PT. Maybe give him a tryout in CF??

 

[mistgl]

Although my hopes for Pill are not very high, I agree that we should see what he can do. Heck, he has destroyed AAA and he isnt that old. Stranger things have happened.

Like the Marlins taking a flier on a recently converted 2B (Uggla) in the rule 5 draft. Only to have him turn into a legit middle of the order power threat?

Or our own DeRo, who was considered org trash in ATL, till he got a shot and became one of the better super UT's in baseball.

Also, they were both 26 before either got their chance. Long shot, I know. But here's to hoping Pill is legit.

 

[msgkings322]

CF-Torres
2B-Sanchez
3B-Sandoval
1B-Huff
C- Posey
RF-Schierholtz
LF-Belt
SS-Crawford

This is what our lineup looks like right now.Sandoval, Posey and Sanchez are the only consistent hitters.The rest struggled for consistency or just plain sucked this year We need to give all the vets there headstone for this season and see who can hit at this level from AA and AAA.It is a shame that Sabean wont bring Brown up too.



CF-Ford
2B-Culberson
3B-Sandoval
1B-Pill
LF-Belt
RF-Peguero
C- Sanchez
SS-Crawford

Just let the kids play and see who belongs on this team next season beforeyou worry about who we sign in the offseason.

What's sad is, us internet warriors can sit throwing ideas like this around, many of them excellent ones, but we all know that's not how most MLB teams work including ours. They don't want attendance to dip so they have to keep running out Tim and Wilson and Panda and the other marketable, familiar faces, at least until actual elimination (which will probably be with about 8 games left), and even then we won't see all kids, they might just sit a guy for a day here and there.

It makes me wonder, again using the proven theorem that Bochy and Sabean know 100x what we do, what we're missing with our analysis? I guess there's a human aspect that we ignore, especially as we mourn the season. If Tim wants to pitch, he will, no matter what we want. If Huff wants to try to 'work out of it' until the last AB, and since he's a vet and and a ringbearer and we're stuck with him next year, he'll get to.

 

[Epic Voidfield]

It makes me wonder, again using the proven theorem that Bochy and Sabean know 100x what we do, what we're missing with our analysis?

To them, the season isn't over until they're mathematically eliminated. To us, the Giants were toast if they didn't sweep the D-Backs, I guess.