Series Thread: First Round: Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Washington Capitals

[elocomotive]

I guess your way of not being nice is by having your team give my team's second round opponent plenty of time to rest and recharge?

So you're just assuming a series win, now? Oh... the hockey gods grow angry!

 

[Bloody Brian Burke]

So you're just assuming a series win, now? Oh... the hockey gods grow angry!

*lifts head up from Stanley Cup Parade Route map first draft*

Hmm?

 

[ritari330]

See, the problem with that argument is that Babcock is doing the same shit with his 4th line. Kapanen-Boyle-Martin are playing just as many minutes as Winnik-Beagle-Wilson. Like Dragon said during the first game Babcock will give that 4th line minutes after a Leafs goal because of that tendency to think the other team will be "fired up" to get a goal after coughing one up.

OV's losing ice time to Marcus Johansson, not Daniel Winnik. He's losing zone starts to Brett Connolly, not Daniel Winnik. Neither of that makes any sense.

OV's losing ice time to everyone. Johansson deserves 15+ minutes a night, as does the whole top 6. Evenly mixing up the lines is working for the leafs, its not for the Caps. Credit goes to the leafs because their depth is playing and executing better than the caps depth.

By the way, the Leafs' first line is leading the league in postseason possession:

The only member of that line averaging more ice time than Ovechkin is Matthews.

Difference being, one is a 19 year old (albeit an extremely good one), while the other is one of the best goal scorers in NHL history.

The facts are that OV isn't seeing the ice enough, the Caps D is playing like trash, and the leafs are capitalizing on the lackluster performance from the caps. Trotz is at fault for 2 of the 3 of those.

 

[Bloody Brian Burke]

while the other is one of the best goal scorers in NHL history.

I'm a big Matthews fan but that's a bit much given where he is in his career.

Maybe by the end of next season.

 

[dash]

So you're just assuming a series win, now? Oh... the hockey gods grow angry!

 

[elocomotive]

You guys are talking about Ovechkin's ice time, but I don't really think that's too relevant to the Caps' issues in the series (not that I disagree he should be getting more minutes). We've scored 3 goals in every game. If you told me that would happen at the start of the series, I'd say we're either up 2-1 or 3-0 at this point.

We have the reigning Vezina winner and one of the best defenses in hockey that took care of business all year long and allowed the fewest goals in the league. I see two things...

(1) Holtby has not been bad, but he's certainly not been great. If you look at the shot charts, the Caps have been funneling most of the shots to the outside as they have most of the year. You expect to win a game or two in a series from a dominant goaltender performance. We haven't seen one yet.

(2) Some of the blue liners are not playing up to expectations. I think it has less to do with their D structure and more to do with zone exits and clearing the puck. The Leafs have been doing an excellent job on their forecheck and we've had some bad giveaways that have led to a breakdown in that structure and goals. I thought last night it didn't seem to me that we have iced the puck hardly at all this series. So I took a look at the play-by-play stats, and here's what I found in terms of icing per game...
Game 1 - Leafs 7, Caps 7
Game 2 - Leafs 12, Caps 4
Game 3 - Leafs 13, Caps 7

When you are getting sustained pressure, you have to be willing just to clear the puck or flip it to center. And I think the Caps are being way too cute on the back end trying to get clean exits. The Leafs have been almost twice as willing to just end the pressure and take the icing call. That's key to stopping momentum sometimes and allowing yourself to reset.

At the end of the day, the Caps were in position to win both games 2 and 3. The last 5 minutes of game 2 was crazy and it's nuts they didn't pot the game winner there. And if they score on a 5-on-3 for 2 minutes or the PP afterwards (what are the odds they don't? like 20%?), that game was over last night. They've had the opportunities to take control of the series, but they haven't done it. It's frustrating. Especially since we Cap fans have lived that for a couple decades now.

They need to be a little less cute on defense, get a glimmer of Holtbeast, and I think there is no reason they still can't win this series. But it's fucking hockey, and the better team doesn't always win. And certainly the Leafs are in position to steal this series now and rightfully playing with confidence. Hopefully the Caps can adjust and improve on the back end and get it done.

 

[jstewismybastardson]

12:40 ice time for OV at even strength ???? 6 caps forwards with more even strength ice time last night ????

 

[DragonfromTO]

You guys are talking about Ovechkin's ice time, but I don't really think that's too relevant to the Caps' issues in the series (not that I disagree he should be getting more minutes). We've scored 3 goals in every game. If you told me that would happen at the start of the series, I'd say we're either up 2-1 or 3-0 at this point.

We have the reigning Vezina winner and one of the best defenses in hockey that took care of business all year long and allowed the fewest goals in the league. I see two things...

(1) Holtby has not been bad, but he's certainly not been great. If you look at the shot charts, the Caps have been funneling most of the shots to the outside as they have most of the year. You expect to win a game or two in a series from a dominant goaltender performance. We haven't seen one yet.

(2) Some of the blue liners are not playing up to expectations. I think it has less to do with their D structure and more to do with zone exits and clearing the puck. The Leafs have been doing an excellent job on their forecheck and we've had some bad giveaways that have led to a breakdown in that structure and goals. I thought last night it didn't seem to me that we have iced the puck hardly at all this series. So I took a look at the play-by-play stats, and here's what I found in terms of icing per game...
Game 1 - Leafs 7, Caps 7
Game 2 - Leafs 12, Caps 4
Game 3 - Leafs 13, Caps 7

When you are getting sustained pressure, you have to be willing just to clear the puck or flip it to center. And I think the Caps are being way too cute on the back end trying to get clean exits. The Leafs have been almost twice as willing to just end the pressure and take the icing call. That's key to stopping momentum sometimes and allowing yourself to reset.

At the end of the day, the Caps were in position to win both games 2 and 3. The last 5 minutes of game 2 was crazy and it's nuts they didn't pot the game winner there. And if they score on a 5-on-3 for 2 minutes or the PP afterwards (what are the odds they don't? like 20%?), that game was over last night. They've had the opportunities to take control of the series, but they haven't done it. It's frustrating. Especially since we Cap fans have lived that for a couple decades now.

They need to be a little less cute on defense, get a glimmer of Holtbeast, and I think there is no reason they still can't win this series. But it's fucking hockey, and the better team doesn't always win. And certainly the Leafs are in position to steal this series now and rightfully playing with confidence. Hopefully the Caps can adjust and improve on the back end and get it done.

This is just last night's chart, but it doesn't look to me like that of a team that didn't get opportunities from good areas. It looks more to me like a team that's getting (too many) opportunities from everywhere in the offensive zone.

https://46wvda23y0nl13db2j3bl1yx-wpengine.netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/Untitled2.png

 

[elocomotive]

This is just last night's chart, but it doesn't look to me like that of a team that didn't get opportunities from good areas. It looks more to me like a team that's getting (too many) opportunities from everywhere in the offensive zone.

https://46wvda23y0nl13db2j3bl1yx-wpengine.netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/Untitled2.png

I think last night the Leafs certainly had better chances last night than in games 1 and 2, especially in the third period. Still think the Caps had the better opportunities in games 1 and 2 easily. That chart is kinda hard to read, but even here it shows the Caps shot cluster to be tighter than the wider cluster from the Leafs.

If you want me to say the Leafs have played better than the Caps, I won't. I don't think they have over the course of three games. An OV breakaway and a 5-on-3 conversion and this is a 3-0 series. But the Leafs have been right there with us, it's certainly been closer than it should especially given the Leafs' injuries on D. And they lead the series going into game 4.

 

[DragonfromTO]

I think last night the Leafs certainly had better chances last night than in games 1 and 2, especially in the third period. Still think the Caps had the better opportunities in games 1 and 2 easily. That chart is kinda hard to read, but even here it shows the Caps shot cluster to be tighter than the wider cluster from the Leafs.

If you want me to say the Leafs have played better than the Caps, I won't. I don't think they have over the course of three games. An OV breakaway and a 5-on-3 conversion and this is a 3-0 series. But the Leafs have been right there with us, it's certainly been closer than it should especially given the Leafs' injuries on D. And they lead the series going into game 4.

I think I may have linked it as a video last time? Sorry.

What's even wrong with the "wider cluster" though? It's not like that "wider" red area is extended out into areas that you wouldn't want your players shooting from.

 

[DragonfromTO]

Here's a table covering all 3 games that shows "high danger" shot attempt rates for the Leaf forwards. Usual caveats.

 

[dash]

Did somebody say high danger? What about grave danger?

/Is there any other kind?

 

[sbb122]

I'd love to see the Caps/Pens meet up again but it's hard not to root for these kids on the Leafs

 

[puckhead]

I'd love to see the Caps/Pens meet up again but it's hard not to root for these kids on the Leafs

even their usually obnoxious fans are winning me over
first Dart Guy, and now this

 

[DragonfromTO]

Did somebody say high danger? What about grave danger?

/Is there any other kind?

You really missed something here dash. If you'd photoshopped Dart Guy in you'd have won my love forever. But you just avoided that awful experience.

 

[Bloody Brian Burke]

Oh good we're doing this again:

 

[BGDave]

Oh good we're doing this again:

No $hit, Sherlock. The team with the best regular season record is gonna try real hard.

#andhegetspaidforthis???

 

[Bloody Brian Burke]

No $hit, Sherlock. The team with the best regular season record is gonna try real hard.

#andhegetspaidforthis???

I mean, my understanding of why the Caps kept playing all these OT games was because they want to reeeeeally make it look like they’re trying when really they’re just waiting to go down 3-1 so they can storm out with 3 straight wins and keep that momentum going in the next round hoping that carries them through to the Cup.

Guess Pierre missed that narrative.

 

[elocomotive]

I mean, my understanding of why the Caps kept playing all these OT games was because they want to reeeeeally make it look like they’re trying when really they’re just waiting to go down 3-1 so they can storm out with 3 straight wins and keep that momentum going in the next round hoping that carries them through to the Cup.

Guess Pierre missed that narrative.

I'll take a 2-1 series lead and some Twitter comments that are annoying if you guys want to trade?

 

[elocomotive]

Breaking News: Tonight's game cancelled due to the Washington Capitals playing their win in the bank. Series now tied 2-2 as it goes back to Washington.