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Part 4
25. Bilal Powell
Best Case: Powell quickly leaves a decrepit Matt Forte in the dust, making the Jets’ “committee” a one-man show. With so little surrounding talent, Powell can’t match last year’s gaudy yards per carry (5.51), but his three-down role and touchdown opportunity make him a mid-range RB2 who mixes in RB1 weeks.
Worst Case: The wheels are merely the first thing to fall off for Gang Green as things go so far off the rails no Jet is a safe start in fantasy. Powell and Forte are joined by a host of other committee members, ultimately rendering Powell a desperation FLEX option.
26. Eddie Lacy
Best Case: Lacy and the Seahawks’ running game are a chicken/egg of revival, with it being unclear who deserves more credit for sparking the other. Lacy appears in all 16 games, finishing as both a top-eight rusher and standard leaguer.
Worst Case: Demoralized behind an offensive line that’s somehow even worse than it was in 2016, Lacy sheds carries instead of pounds. Thomas Rawls is the healthier, fitter runner, and better option behind a blocking group that forces ball carriers to create their own yards.
27. Spencer Ware
Best Case: Ware doesn’t have to hold off Kareem Hunt in training camp because he’s so obviously ahead of him from Day 1. Ware matches his robust two-year averages in yards per carry (4.63) and catch (11.6) and holds up better down the stretch than he did in 2016. He improves upon last year’s RB14 finish in PPR.
Worst Case: Coach Andy Reid’s hand-picked back, Hunt wins a rigged camp “competition” before quickly establishing himself in the regular season. Ware is reduced to change-of-pace/breather status, becoming tough to hold onto in fantasy leagues once bye week season begins.
28. Doug Martin
Best Case: With the Bucs committed to a balanced attack, Martin is an RB1 from his Week 4 return onward. Even on an abbreviated schedule, he scores 10 touchdowns for the Bucs’ on-the-rise offense.
Worst Case: Although his life back on track, Martin’s running remains sluggish, leaving an opening for teacher’s pet Jacquizz Rodgers and rookie Jeremy McNichols. Charles Sims keeps his roster spot. Martin is essentially 2015-16 Jeremy Hill.
29. Theo Riddick
Best Case: Back to full health, Riddick bests David Johnson for the running back receptions crown. Riddick also has his first 100-carry season as the Lions mix and match on early downs.
Worst Case: Ameer Abdullah breaks out to the point that the Lions no longer employ Riddick as a Woodhead-ian pass catcher. He becomes Shane Vereen on the Giants 2.0, limiting even his PPR appeal.
30. Frank Gore
Best Case: The Colts’ offensive line finally takes a step forward, getting Gore above 4.0 yards per carry for the first time in Indy. His eight rushing touchdowns are his most since 2013.
Worst Case: Gore’s tank goes bone dry, forcing the Colts to work Robert Turbin and Marlon Mack into heavy rotation. Gore’s retirement decision is made for him.
31. Derrick Henry
Best Case: Henry is too good to ignore. Already impressing in September change-up duties, Henry gets a feature chance when DeMarco Murray goes down with injury. He never looks back, leading the run-heavy Titans’ backfield and establishing himself as the long-term starter.
Worst Case: Murray’s 2016 renaissance continues, as Henry’s veteran teammate stays healthy and productive after learning hard lessons early in his career. Henry’s 2016 touch total (123) actually decreases as Murray gallops to top-five status.
32. Paul Perkins
Best Case: Perkins performs so well on early downs he begins eating into Shane Vereen’s snaps in passing situations. He rides big plays and goal-line work to top-18 status at running back.
Worst Case: Underwhelming in camp, Perkins not only fails to challenge Vereen in the passing game, he lets rookie Wayne Gallman into the picture on early downs. The Giants’ backfield remains a muddled mess that’s all but useless from a fantasy perspective.
33. Ameer Abdullah
Best Case: Abdullah lives up to his draft reputation as a SPARQ stud home run hitter, making so many plays in the running game he cuts into Theo Riddick’s passing-game usage. The third-year pro flirts with RB1 status.
Worst Case: With third downs out of the question, Abdullah has to make the most of his chain-moving opportunities. He doesn’t, letting Zach Zenner and Dwayne Washington cut into his workload while Matt Asiata is subbed in near the goal line. The Abdullah dream is dead after three years.
34. C.J. Anderson
Best Case: Anderson finally manages to stay healthy, leading to increased reliability for the Broncos and consistency for fantasy owners. There are still dud games behind Denver’s shaky offensive line, but Anderson finishes as a mid-range RB2.
Worst Case: Anderson picks up an early injury in camp while Jamaal Charles looks surprisingly healthy. The rest is history as Anderson struggles to stay off the injury report and Charles wins Comeback Player of the Year honors.
35. LeGarrette Blount
Best Case: Blount’s touchdown total decreases by 10, but he posts his second straight 1,000-yard season after going five years without a 1K campaign. The yards come easy behind Philly’s excellent line.
Worst Case: Even with plus run blocking, Blount finds that no Tom Brady equals more brick walls to run into. Philly’s crowded backfield sprawls into an unwieldy committee as Blount fails to surpass 600 yards.
36. Kareem Hunt
Best Case: Coach Andy Reid is in love from Day 1, giving Hunt extensive work on all three downs. Hunt finishes as a top-three rookie back in one of the deeper classes in recent memory.
Worst Case: Spencer Ware mounts a surprisingly robust defense of feature status, while quarterback woes and a brutal schedule make for persistent game-flow issues. Hunt can’t get on the RB3/4 map as a first-year NFLer.
25. Bilal Powell
Best Case: Powell quickly leaves a decrepit Matt Forte in the dust, making the Jets’ “committee” a one-man show. With so little surrounding talent, Powell can’t match last year’s gaudy yards per carry (5.51), but his three-down role and touchdown opportunity make him a mid-range RB2 who mixes in RB1 weeks.
Worst Case: The wheels are merely the first thing to fall off for Gang Green as things go so far off the rails no Jet is a safe start in fantasy. Powell and Forte are joined by a host of other committee members, ultimately rendering Powell a desperation FLEX option.
26. Eddie Lacy
Best Case: Lacy and the Seahawks’ running game are a chicken/egg of revival, with it being unclear who deserves more credit for sparking the other. Lacy appears in all 16 games, finishing as both a top-eight rusher and standard leaguer.
Worst Case: Demoralized behind an offensive line that’s somehow even worse than it was in 2016, Lacy sheds carries instead of pounds. Thomas Rawls is the healthier, fitter runner, and better option behind a blocking group that forces ball carriers to create their own yards.
27. Spencer Ware
Best Case: Ware doesn’t have to hold off Kareem Hunt in training camp because he’s so obviously ahead of him from Day 1. Ware matches his robust two-year averages in yards per carry (4.63) and catch (11.6) and holds up better down the stretch than he did in 2016. He improves upon last year’s RB14 finish in PPR.
Worst Case: Coach Andy Reid’s hand-picked back, Hunt wins a rigged camp “competition” before quickly establishing himself in the regular season. Ware is reduced to change-of-pace/breather status, becoming tough to hold onto in fantasy leagues once bye week season begins.
28. Doug Martin
Best Case: With the Bucs committed to a balanced attack, Martin is an RB1 from his Week 4 return onward. Even on an abbreviated schedule, he scores 10 touchdowns for the Bucs’ on-the-rise offense.
Worst Case: Although his life back on track, Martin’s running remains sluggish, leaving an opening for teacher’s pet Jacquizz Rodgers and rookie Jeremy McNichols. Charles Sims keeps his roster spot. Martin is essentially 2015-16 Jeremy Hill.
29. Theo Riddick
Best Case: Back to full health, Riddick bests David Johnson for the running back receptions crown. Riddick also has his first 100-carry season as the Lions mix and match on early downs.
Worst Case: Ameer Abdullah breaks out to the point that the Lions no longer employ Riddick as a Woodhead-ian pass catcher. He becomes Shane Vereen on the Giants 2.0, limiting even his PPR appeal.
30. Frank Gore
Best Case: The Colts’ offensive line finally takes a step forward, getting Gore above 4.0 yards per carry for the first time in Indy. His eight rushing touchdowns are his most since 2013.
Worst Case: Gore’s tank goes bone dry, forcing the Colts to work Robert Turbin and Marlon Mack into heavy rotation. Gore’s retirement decision is made for him.
31. Derrick Henry
Best Case: Henry is too good to ignore. Already impressing in September change-up duties, Henry gets a feature chance when DeMarco Murray goes down with injury. He never looks back, leading the run-heavy Titans’ backfield and establishing himself as the long-term starter.
Worst Case: Murray’s 2016 renaissance continues, as Henry’s veteran teammate stays healthy and productive after learning hard lessons early in his career. Henry’s 2016 touch total (123) actually decreases as Murray gallops to top-five status.
32. Paul Perkins
Best Case: Perkins performs so well on early downs he begins eating into Shane Vereen’s snaps in passing situations. He rides big plays and goal-line work to top-18 status at running back.
Worst Case: Underwhelming in camp, Perkins not only fails to challenge Vereen in the passing game, he lets rookie Wayne Gallman into the picture on early downs. The Giants’ backfield remains a muddled mess that’s all but useless from a fantasy perspective.
33. Ameer Abdullah
Best Case: Abdullah lives up to his draft reputation as a SPARQ stud home run hitter, making so many plays in the running game he cuts into Theo Riddick’s passing-game usage. The third-year pro flirts with RB1 status.
Worst Case: With third downs out of the question, Abdullah has to make the most of his chain-moving opportunities. He doesn’t, letting Zach Zenner and Dwayne Washington cut into his workload while Matt Asiata is subbed in near the goal line. The Abdullah dream is dead after three years.
34. C.J. Anderson
Best Case: Anderson finally manages to stay healthy, leading to increased reliability for the Broncos and consistency for fantasy owners. There are still dud games behind Denver’s shaky offensive line, but Anderson finishes as a mid-range RB2.
Worst Case: Anderson picks up an early injury in camp while Jamaal Charles looks surprisingly healthy. The rest is history as Anderson struggles to stay off the injury report and Charles wins Comeback Player of the Year honors.
35. LeGarrette Blount
Best Case: Blount’s touchdown total decreases by 10, but he posts his second straight 1,000-yard season after going five years without a 1K campaign. The yards come easy behind Philly’s excellent line.
Worst Case: Even with plus run blocking, Blount finds that no Tom Brady equals more brick walls to run into. Philly’s crowded backfield sprawls into an unwieldy committee as Blount fails to surpass 600 yards.
36. Kareem Hunt
Best Case: Coach Andy Reid is in love from Day 1, giving Hunt extensive work on all three downs. Hunt finishes as a top-three rookie back in one of the deeper classes in recent memory.
Worst Case: Spencer Ware mounts a surprisingly robust defense of feature status, while quarterback woes and a brutal schedule make for persistent game-flow issues. Hunt can’t get on the RB3/4 map as a first-year NFLer.
