ESPN the Magazine's Projections

[MHSL82]

I have the magazine - not going to type the whole thing, so here are some notables.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------

Insider's View: The 49ers have the NFL's best LB crew - and it isn't even close. Patrick Willis is making a case to be considered one of the greats at ILB. Navarro Bowman diagnoses plays quickly and gets to his target with aggressiveness. Phenom Aldon Smith, who's already SF's top pass rusher (14 sacks in 2011), should take Parys Haralson's starting spot at OLB.

Worst Unit: This is a tale of two sides, LT Joe Staley is light on his feet, LG Mike Iupati is a mauler, and Jonathon Goodwin is an above-average center, expecially in run blocking. But the right side is a big concern. RT Anthony Davis, a former first rounder, hasn't produced in two seasons. And RG is such a mess that the 49ers opened camp with four in the mix.

FBO Pocket Projector: Don't expect Alex Smith's stellar 1.1% INT rate to regress much. He had only three potential INTs dropped by defenders over the past two seasons and had the lowest rate of passes defensed [5.2%] in 2011.

QB Projection: 60.7%, 3422 yards, 23 TDs, 11 INTs

Polian's Key Move: Jacobs hasn't been an every-down back for quite some time - he started just 11 games for the Giants in the past two seasons. But he's the perfect fit in SF; the Niners now have a suitable partner for Frank Gore. Kendall Hunter wasn't a consistent answer, and without a complement to Gore, the offense becomes extremely limited. Coach Jim Harbaugh wants to continue last year's run-heavy attack; Jacons makes that approach more viable.

KC Joyner's Counterintelligence: Perception - Alex Smith is merely a game manager. Reality - Smith ranked in the top 11 in both short and stretch vertical passes last year - without ideal WRs. Now Mario Mannigham, a revitalized Moss, and rookie A.J. Jenkins are in SF, meaning Smith could soon be a top-10 QB.

Mel Kiper's Rookie Sleeper: The Niners have a strong trio of runners in Gore, Jacob, and Hunter, but none has James' home run element. The second rounder out of Oregon offers legit sprinter's speed. He has versatility to catch passes on the edge, run inside, and make big plays in the return game.

Projected Record: 12-4
Losses: Green Bay, NY Jets, Saints, and Patriots.
Playoffs: Beat the Bears, Beat the Saints (Again), Lose to Packers
Super Bowl: Packers over Broncos
Chance of Winning Division: 68.1
Chance of making playoffs: 72.8
Biggest Win: Home v. Rams 25.8-13.4
Biggest Loss: At Patriots 30.0-18.8
Closest Game: Vs. Giants - 21.4-20.8
Opener: 28.6-18.7 Loss

LVH SuperBook Odds of Winning Super Bowl: 8-1
LVH Over/Under Wins: 9.5

Division Standings Projections
San Francisco: 12-4
Seattle: 6-10
Arizona: 4-12
St. Louis: 0-16

 

[MHSL82]

Other Divisional Noteables:

Sam Bradford

FBO's Pocket Projector: Bradford's 2011 interception total of 6 in 10 games was artificially low - he had six likely picks dropped. His 6.1 YPA, however, was not misleading; it was tied for the third-worst mark in the NFL.

Bradford Projection: 62.5%, 3649 yards, 19 TDs, 16 INTs

Kevin Kolb Projection: 61.9%, 4047 yards, 23 TDs, 21 INTs

Flynn's Projection: 60.3%, 3329 yards, 19 TDs, 17 INTs
Despite the lower numbers, comparing him with Jackson, they expect huge QB improvement for the Seahawks.

 

[Bemular]

I have the magazine - not going to type the whole thing, so here are some notables.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------

Insider's View: The 49ers have the NFL's best LB crew - and it isn't even close. Patrick Willis is making a case to be considered one of the greats at ILB. Navarro Bowman diagnoses plays quickly and gets to his target with aggressiveness. Phenom Aldon Smith, who's already SF's top pass rusher (14 sacks in 2011), should take Parys Haralson's starting spot at OLB.

Worst Unit: This is a tale of two sides, LT Joe Staley is light on his feet, LG Mike Iupati is a mauler, and Jonathon Goodwin is an above-average center, expecially in run blocking. But the right side is a big concern. RT Anthony Davis, a former first rounder, hasn't produced in two seasons. And RG is such a mess that the 49ers opened camp with four in the mix.

FBO Pocket Projector: Don't expect Alex Smith's stellar 1.1% INT rate to regress much. He had only three potential INTs dropped by defenders over the past two seasons and had the lowest rate of passes defensed [5.2%] in 2011.

QB Projection: 60.7%, 3422 yards, 23 TDs, 11 INTs

Polian's Key Move: Jacobs hasn't been an every-down back for quite some time - he started just 11 games for the Giants in the past two seasons. But he's the perfect fit in SF; the Niners now have a suitable partner for Frank Gore. Kendall Hunter wasn't a consistent answer, and without a complement to Gore, the offense becomes extremely limited. Coach Jim Harbaugh wants to continue last year's run-heavy attack; Jacons makes that approach more viable.

KC Joyner's Counterintelligence: Perception - Alex Smith is merely a game manager. Reality - Smith ranked in the top 11 in both short and stretch vertical passes last year - without ideal WRs. Now Mario Mannigham, a revitalized Moss, and rookie A.J. Jenkins are in SF, meaning Smith could soon be a top-10 QB.

Mel Kiper's Rookie Sleeper: The Niners have a strong trio of runners in Gore, Jacob, and Hunter, but none has James' home run element. The second rounder out of Oregon offers legit sprinter's speed. He has versatility to catch passes on the edge, run inside, and make big plays in the return game.

Projected Record: 12-4
Losses: Green Bay, NY Jets, Saints, and Patriots.
Playoffs: Beat the Bears, Beat the Saints (Again), Lose to Packers
Super Bowl: Packers over Broncos
Chance of Winning Division: 68.1
Chance of making playoffs: 72.8
Biggest Win: Home v. Rams 25.8-13.4
Biggest Loss: At Patriots 30.0-18.8
Closest Game: Vs. Giants - 21.4-20.8
Opener: 28.6-18.7 Loss

LVH SuperBook Odds of Winning Super Bowl: 8-1
LVH Over/Under Wins: 9.5

This was a decent and credible write-up all the way ---- until this:

"Anthony Davis, a former first rounder, hasn't produced in two seasons."

While Davis was noticeably weaker in pass-pro to begin last season his run blocking started off strong and, like his pass-pro, only became better and better as the season progressed.

By the end of the season Davis was playing solid at RT. Perhaps one day when the NFL pulls it head out of its butt and enforces voting for RT's for the pro-bowl, Davis just might make it to Hawaii.

 

[MHSL82]

Interesting Fact: The Packers have had the third fewest drives in the league, after San Diego and Pittsburgh.

You know Stafford had a great 2011 season when regressing 800 yards (the projection) leaves him at 4310 yards.

Matt Ryan faces the easiest projected pass defenses this year.

Freeman last year was one of 13 QBs who have raised their INT rates by at least 2% while increasing their completion percentage.

Brandon Weeden is the only player they project to have more INTs than TDs.

Luck is projected at 18/17 TD/INT ratio.

RGIII's stats are low due to him being a rookie and the last few years Redskins' QBs.

 

[threelittleturds]

haha

Packers vs Broncos Super Bowl

Geeeeeeeee why would ESPN go with a Broncos Super Bowl appearance? They only set up ESPN West in Denver's training camp... they would never have an agenda.

 

[JMedlock5186]

haha

Packers vs Broncos Super Bowl

Geeeeeeeee why would ESPN go with a Broncos Super Bowl appearance? They only set up ESPN West in Denver's training camp... they would never have an agenda.

I was thinking that as well.

 

[Jikkle]

I think we win at least won of the games against the Pack, Saints, and Pats. I could argue 2 and to win against all 3 would be mind blowingly awesome but we should win at least 1.

I'm not seeing how we lose to the Jets. Their wanting to go back to ground and pound style of offense plays right into our defense and aside from Holmes who do they have that's scary catching the ball? I would swap the Jets out with a loss @Seattle.

The QB projection is about right except for the accuracy and I actually see Smith being more accurate than a year ago than less accurate. Especially considering they have Kolb at a higher accuracy.

I'm not sure of the Saints going 12-4 or better this season. I don't think they'll bomb obviously but I didn't think they got any better in the offseason, the division around them got better, and I think their schedule is a little tougher this season.

Not seeing the Broncos making the Super Bowl this season. Manning makes them better no doubt but this is the team that got torched by New England twice and they closed the gap but now they'll just make it a respectable game instead.

 

[dredinis21]

Idk how respectable. Moreno hasn't been healthy enough to be considered a factor. The WR are still young and are no longer asked to run ONLY go routes and posts, which will take some time, the OL is hurting....If they get out of the AFC West, it would be by default as each of the other teams have bigger warts...but to me, that is where Denver's ride stops. Ravens and New England are the class of the AFC IMO.

 

[deep9er]

I have the magazine - not going to type the whole thing, so here are some notables.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------

Insider's View: The 49ers have the NFL's best LB crew - and it isn't even close. Patrick Willis is making a case to be considered one of the greats at ILB. Navarro Bowman diagnoses plays quickly and gets to his target with aggressiveness. Phenom Aldon Smith, who's already SF's top pass rusher (14 sacks in 2011), should take Parys Haralson's starting spot at OLB.

Worst Unit: This is a tale of two sides, LT Joe Staley is light on his feet, LG Mike Iupati is a mauler, and Jonathon Goodwin is an above-average center, expecially in run blocking. But the right side is a big concern. RT Anthony Davis, a former first rounder, hasn't produced in two seasons. And RG is such a mess that the 49ers opened camp with four in the mix.

FBO Pocket Projector: Don't expect Alex Smith's stellar 1.1% INT rate to regress much. He had only three potential INTs dropped by defenders over the past two seasons and had the lowest rate of passes defensed [5.2%] in 2011.

QB Projection: 60.7%, 3422 yards, 23 TDs, 11 INTs

Polian's Key Move: Jacobs hasn't been an every-down back for quite some time - he started just 11 games for the Giants in the past two seasons. But he's the perfect fit in SF; the Niners now have a suitable partner for Frank Gore. Kendall Hunter wasn't a consistent answer, and without a complement to Gore, the offense becomes extremely limited. Coach Jim Harbaugh wants to continue last year's run-heavy attack; Jacons makes that approach more viable.

KC Joyner's Counterintelligence: Perception - Alex Smith is merely a game manager. Reality - Smith ranked in the top 11 in both short and stretch vertical passes last year - without ideal WRs. Now Mario Mannigham, a revitalized Moss, and rookie A.J. Jenkins are in SF, meaning Smith could soon be a top-10 QB.

Mel Kiper's Rookie Sleeper: The Niners have a strong trio of runners in Gore, Jacob, and Hunter, but none has James' home run element. The second rounder out of Oregon offers legit sprinter's speed. He has versatility to catch passes on the edge, run inside, and make big plays in the return game.

Projected Record: 12-4
Losses: Green Bay, NY Jets, Saints, and Patriots.
Playoffs: Beat the Bears, Beat the Saints (Again), Lose to Packers
Super Bowl: Packers over Broncos
Chance of Winning Division: 68.1
Chance of making playoffs: 72.8
Biggest Win: Home v. Rams 25.8-13.4
Biggest Loss: At Patriots 30.0-18.8
Closest Game: Vs. Giants - 21.4-20.8
Opener: 28.6-18.7 Loss

LVH SuperBook Odds of Winning Super Bowl: 8-1
LVH Over/Under Wins: 9.5

Division Standings Projections
San Francisco: 12-4
Seattle: 6-10
Arizona: 4-12
St. Louis: 0-16

i would not only be very elated going 12-4, but also sweeping the West. its not uncommon to win a game you're favored in, but lose one you're not? so while agree we look better than the Jets, if not them then somebody else anyway.

obviously, the first game against Green Bay is huge, cause at the end of the season it might come down to a tie break? but we might as well play them first, we have a good D and can 'bust out' a few new plays on O.

 

[deep9er]

one more comment....as is usually the case every Sunday, if we can establish the run against the Pack........................

 

[Yoshi]

This was a decent and credible write-up all the way ---- until this:

"Anthony Davis, a former first rounder, hasn't produced in two seasons."

While Davis was noticeably weaker in pass-pro to begin last season his run blocking started off strong and, like his pass-pro, only became better and better as the season progressed.

By the end of the season Davis was playing solid at RT. Perhaps one day when the NFL pulls it head out of its butt and enforces voting for RT's for the pro-bowl, Davis just might make it to Hawaii.

Our line in general needs to improve in the pass blocking department, but I did notice Davis having problems in the Texans game during passing situations. He did look better towards the tail end of last season, but he needs to be more consistent at his position. The right side of that 49ers line is the weak chain on this team going into the season and the players manning the RG and RT positions need to get their acts together.