ESPN Ranked the Most Productive Rookie Classes For 2022

[Fountain City Blues]

The NFL's most productive rookie classes, from 1 to 32: How Seattle crushed the draft

How did the rookies from every team perform this season? And which team had the best (and worst) rookies?

www.espn.com

Below, Aaron Schatz from Football Outsiders and Alex Vigderman from Sports Info Solutions take a look at all 32 rookie classes in the NFL and rank the value of their contributions in 2022. This list is based only on how much production teams got out of these players in their first season. There might be great future contributions from injured rookies such as Jameson Williams and Phidarian Mathis, but those players didn't count for much in 2022.

To rank the rookie classes, we started with Sports Info Solutions' total points metric. Based on game charting, total points takes every element of a play and uses all of that data to evaluate each player on a scale that allows you to compare between positions: How many points do we estimate that this player either earned for his offense or saved for his defense? You can read more about it here. We then adjusted some teams up or down based on the importance of certain positions or how well players did in ESPN tracking metrics and Football Outsiders' DVOA.

Bolded are current playoff teams. Underlined are last year's playoff teams.

Color Codes Reflect Conference

1.SEA
2.NYJ
3.KC
4.TEN
5.HOU
6.JAX
7.DET
8.CHI
9.NE
10.PIT
11.DAL
12.SF
13.ATL
14.GB
15.NYG
16.LAC
17.CLE
18.NO
19.BAL
20.DEN
21.IND
22.BUF
23.MIA
24.TB
25.MIN
26.LV
27.PHI
28.WAS
29.ARI
30.CIN
31.LAR
32.CAR

 

[Clayton]

Reflecting on draft capital rankings:

1. Jax
2. NYJ
3. NYG
4. Houston
5. Detroit
6. Philly
7. Seattle
8. Atlanta
9. New Orleans
10. Green Bay

Although Kansas City is noted for its volume of picks. Philly also traded for AJ Brown which is probably why their 6th is 27th. Most of their value came in from AJ Brown.

Looking at Seattle and KC up there, the moral of the story: if you trust your GM then trade down. Although last year's draft was known for being deep. This year's isnt.

 

[fightinfunbags]

Reflecting on draft capital rankings:

1. Jax
2. NYJ
3. NYG
4. Houston
5. Detroit
6. Philly
7. Seattle
8. Atlanta
9. New Orleans
10. Green Bay

Although Kansas City is noted for its volume of picks. Philly also traded for AJ Brown which is probably why their 6th is 27th. Most of their value came in from AJ Brown.

Looking at Seattle and KC up there, the moral of the story: if you trust your GM then trade down. Although last year's draft was known for being deep. This year's isnt.

Also, Philly took the two kids from Georgia that haven’t contributed much yet but are waiting in the wings. They also took the heir apparent to Kelce.

 

[Fountain City Blues]

Also, Philly took the two kids from Georgia that haven’t contributed much yet but are waiting in the wings. They also took the heir apparent to Kelce.

Yeah, I think Philly is quite happy with AJ Brown plus what is in the wings, all things considered. Nonetheless, it's a fun and interesting list to look at.

 

[Cincyfan78]

Eh - I think there's a lot more than just the cursory glance that some of the teams receive...especially towards the bottom.

Taking the Bengals, for instance - Hill has barely played because he was drafted to be a replacement next year for Bates. CTB has played more than he was expected to because Awuzie tore his ACL. He's not a nickle guy because they already have one of the best in the NFL in Hilton at that position. Same with Volston, really - he wasn't expected to earn the starting gig - but that just tells you how bad the OL was to start with...

In reality - when you are picking towards the end of the draft - unless you have a glaring need (which the Bengals didn't outside of OL and they signed 3 F/A) it's hard to get an accurate gauge on players drafted with an eye on the future, and then are thrust into the fray.

That being said - I've actually been OK with all 3 guys mentioned. They've not graded out the best, but they've flashed enough to show why they were drafted where they were...I expect more in '23, of course.

 

[Clayton]

Eh - I think there's a lot more than just the cursory glance that some of the teams receive...especially towards the bottom.

Taking the Bengals, for instance - Hill has barely played because he was drafted to be a replacement next year for Bates. CTB has played more than he was expected to because Awuzie tore his ACL. He's not a nickle guy because they already have one of the best in the NFL in Hilton at that position. Same with Volston, really - he wasn't expected to earn the starting gig - but that just tells you how bad the OL was to start with...

In reality - when you are picking towards the end of the draft - unless you have a glaring need (which the Bengals didn't outside of OL and they signed 3 F/A) it's hard to get an accurate gauge on players drafted with an eye on the future, and then are thrust into the fray.

That being said - I've actually been OK with all 3 guys mentioned. They've not graded out the best, but they've flashed enough to show why they were drafted where they were...I expect more in '23, of course.

I'd imagine a team shouldnt expect to be near the top of this list too often. Maybe once every five years.

 

[Fountain City Blues]

 

[Cincyfan78]

I'd imagine a team shouldnt expect to be near the top of this list too often. Maybe once every five years.

LOL - Bengals in the 90's (91-2002) averaged just 4.5 wins a year....no winning seasons...I think they had 1 .500 season....

I saw them at the top of that list (or draft lists) quite often....unfortunately....

 

[fightinfunbags]

Yeah, I think Philly is quite happy with AJ Brown plus what is in the wings, all things considered. Nonetheless, it's a fun and interesting list to look at.

No doubt. Once a team has to pay their QB, it’s this metric and available draft assets that will determine success after that. Have to find cheap and yet productive starters and depth.

 

[Mebert]

I like in their own write up they admit after they run the numbers they then adjust it based on their subjective opinions.

 

[Tapey]

ESPN really does know ball, huh?

 

[molsaniceman]

ESPN really does know ball, huh?

its easy when u make up your own stats

 

[Tapey]

its easy when u make up your own stats

Haters will say it’s not real.

 

[molsaniceman]

Haters will say it’s not real.

 

[Dr. Strangelove]

Some big hits in the draft. It was a deep class and a few teams steered their fortunes in the right direction. As usual, I'm not surprised to see KC high on the list. Despite lower picks because of their success, they have an eye for talented players that fit into what they do. Top notch front office and evaluating always come through along with a HOF coach who knows exactly how to fit those players in and teach. As for teams like Seattle and NYJ, they have drafted well and will need to back it up with another good off-season but will also need these kids to back up what they did with improvement for this to really matter.

 

[Tapey]

Some big hits in the draft. It was a deep class and a few teams steered their fortunes in the right direction. As usual, I'm not surprised to see KC high on the list. Despite lower picks because of their success, they have an eye for talented players that fit into what they do. Top notch front office and evaluating always come through along with a HOF coach who knows exactly how to fit those players in and teach. As for teams like Seattle and NYJ, they have drafted well and will need to back it up with another good off-season but will also need these kids to back up what they did with improvement for this to really matter.