ebron

[SteelersPride]

per walterfootball.com

drop machine in camp

 

[broncosmitty]

per walterfootball.com

drop machine in camp

In college too.

 

[SteelersPride]

but everyone thinks hes gonna dominate

 

[SteelersPride]

Ebron struggling with drops in camp
Eric Ebron has been struggling with dropping passes so far this training camp but the Lions coaching staff is not concerned.
Fantasy Impact: It is understandable that less than a week into his first camp Lions coaches would not be concerned with Ebron's propensity for drops. However, for our purposes this is definitely a concern considering drops were a major knock on Ebron coming out of North Carolina this past season. In addition to that, most rookie TEs, even ones with Ebron's draft pedigree, struggle to produce in their first year. Ebron could be worth a look as a TE2 flyer late in drafts if the rest of your roster is filled out, but owners drafting Ebron as a TE1 will likely find themselves flocking to the waiver wire in search of this year's Julius Thomas early in the season.

 

[SteelersPride]

also saw turbin is taking first team reps with seattle

 

[TREFF]

but everyone thinks hes gonna dominate

Who is everyone? Foot and Spiller?

 

[SteelersPride]

lol well yeah, theres been some love for him on here, thought brees, obx, and a few others too def obx

 

[Brees#1]

I'm 50/50 on him. I've recently scaled back on taking him in drafts.

 

[The Foot]

I admit I love him. I don't care about the drops one bit. This guy is NOT a TE. He is a glorified WR. He will be a number 2 wr that you can start at TE. Once the season starts you will see him making one handed grabs instead of drops. Right now his head is swimming because they are using him as Y reciever. He is basically lining up like a wide receiver. It's almost not fair to call this guy a wr.

In other words, if Graham were listed as WR he would be a very good one but not a top 12 where as a TE he is numero uno.

 

[wilwhite]

Graham would have been the #4 WR last year, better than AJ Green.

 

[Xponentialchaos]

Jimmy Graham had 357 yards and 5 touchdowns in his rookie year.

How often do rookie tight ends do anything special?

 

[MilkSpiller22]

Jimmy Graham had 357 yards and 5 touchdowns in his rookie year.

How often do rookie tight ends do anything special?

I get that we all use history trends to predict, but it gets very tiring... Everyone is a different scenario, and we bypass the important issues... the most important predictor is opportunity, if you think any rookie has better opportunity than anyone else then arent they worth the gamble over that player???

***Not just about ebron***

 

[Xponentialchaos]

I get that we all use history trends to predict, but it gets very tiring... Everyone is a different scenario, and we bypass the important issues... the most important predictor is opportunity, if you think any rookie has better opportunity than anyone else then arent they worth the gamble over that player???

***Not just about ebron***

I think you're vastly underestimating the importance of analyzing trends.

 

[The Foot]

Graham would have been the #4 WR last year, better than AJ Green

Graham had a freak year, take the next TE whoever that might be. If he where a WR he would have been in the 19th best wr range but as a TE he was 2nd in most league.

 

[TREFF]

I get that we all use history trends to predict, but it gets very tiring... Everyone is a different scenario, and we bypass the important issues... the most important predictor is opportunity, if you think any rookie has better opportunity than anyone else then arent they worth the gamble over that player???

***Not just about ebron***

To be very blunt. .A big fat NO.

more to consider than opportunity.. and in Ebron's case, even the opportunity may be sparse. You can't just overlook trends and historical statistical data, because it doesn't mesh with what you think.

 

[wilwhite]

the most important predictor is opportunity, if you think any rookie has better opportunity than anyone else then arent they worth the gamble over that player?

Some positions are harder to play than others. I've never played organized football (Treff has; maybe he can weigh in), but here's my sense of how hard it is for rookies, position by position:

QB - if a team wants to start a rookie QB in Week 1 (which up until 2008 was extremely rare; not so much any more), they give him a LOT of attention and time with the playbook, and often even simplify the playbook, expanding it as his ability to manage it expands

RB - in many cases, a rookie RB is just expected to: A) know where they're supposed to hit the line on a particular play, B) have good mechanics receiving a handoff, C) pick up a guy who gets through the line on a blitz, D) run past the line and turn around to catch a ball; a not-so-smart RB might take a while to get all these, but many can get it (the more exotic the play calling and audibles, the harder it is)

WR - has to recognize what play was called and run good routes without getting tied up by a defender; much like QBs, the "route tree" expected of them can expand as their understanding expands; in some cases it's enough to just be fast and fly straight down the field to be a useful part of an offense, but the more they can do, the more receptions they'll have - especially when they learn how to get separation from NFL-level defenders

TE - has to understand almost every play that might be called, because he has to block according to the Xs and Os, and/or run a short route - or maybe a medium route, often reacting to switch-ups on defense and audibles. He can't have a "limited playbook" because a) you can't limit a playbook for the sake of a TE (like you would for a franchise QB), and b) if he's a regular player who's only in for particular kinds of plays it will take the defense about three possessions to figure that out, which essentially means the offense would be tipping its hand every time he comes on the field

K - who cares? (but their job is pretty simple)

So I think Opportunity matters least for TE. Do I think a rookie TE could be the top TE? Yes. Do I think there would be Gronk-like separation between him and the field? No.

 

[The Foot]

TE - has to understand almost every play that might be called, because he has to block according to the Xs and Os, and/or run a short route - or maybe a medium route, often reacting to switch-ups on defense and audibles. He can't have a "limited playbook" because a) you can't limit a playbook for the sake of a TE (like you would for a franchise QB), and b) if he's a regular player who's only in for particular kinds of plays it will take the defense about three possessions to figure that out, which essentially means the offense would be tipping its hand every time he comes on the field

Wil this is great in theory and if Ebron where just a TE I would agree 100 percent with you, but the point I think you are missing here even though you are one of the top fantasy minds I have been around is Ebron is not a TE. They just call him one because there is no other name for him. He is a cross between a TE and WR with more WR tendancies than anything. That's the beauty and appeal of this guy. You keep comparing him to other rookie TEs in the past but he is not like that. He is the first of his kind, the closest match is Graham but Ebron is even more diverse.

When he is on the field teams will absolutely know he is going to go out for a pass, the Lions may use that to there advantage sometimes and keep him in as a blocker to spring an RB or WR for big run.

Point I am making is he will be used like a wr. And they are saying even though he has had a few drops (I think it was like 2) he has been running with the first team. Caldwell has said openly he don't care about the drops because he is learning the routes and that they plan on using him a tremendous amount in the system they have set up for him.

You have to think back to the rookie year of one Jahvid Best. Even though he was a RB he was a "pass catching rookie" He was exploiting the middle because he always had one on ones and was always open due to teams having to double Calvin. Well Ebron will be used in the same way. He will be like a convenience store that is "open 24 hours a day"

 

[TREFF]

Will.. of all positions. .QB is easily the toughest for a rookie to come and produce. . Like you said, it's happened, but they were much more "game managers" who leaned on the defense and strong running games to be efficient.
Right after them. .IMHO, is TE, the run blocking assignments, the offensive line audibles/shifts, on top of their own route tree and the overall playbook. These are the reasons you can't just over look historical trends when trying to predict what a rookie TE might do. There isn't opportunity until these things are overcome. And in this case, not only does Ebron need to do all those things, he's also got to do them better than a veteran who just signed a 4 year extension in order to get this opportunity.

Will.. just FYI..I never got past junior year in high school in organized football. ..baseball was my sorry that I played all through college. . And was mediocre at best. . But thanks for the plug.

 

[MilkSpiller22]

I think you guys are missing my point.

Every player is different, every scenario is different. I am not saying any rookie will be great. But to say they won't be good because it doesn't happen often or even ever is not really valid.

Especially when we talk about fantasy since there is a huge difference between being fantasy good and real life good.

All you need to be fantasy good is the opportunity of play and the teams willingness to give you the ball.
And if you think a rookie has this opportunity more than a veteran, then he is definitely worth the gamble.
Sometimes rookies just walk into a situation where the team needs them. Usually they walk into a situation where the team can be more patient.
There are some rookies out there this season who have walked into a scenario where the team needs them more than the average rookie.

All I am saying is not all rookies are created equally and giving all rookies the rookie tag and fear is very dangerous.

 

[TKOSpikes]

I remember when Shockey claimed he was too big for corners to cover and too fast for safeties. The thing about hybrid NFL players, is that they really aren't either of the spectrum.

Like I said, I don't see a huge difference between Ebron and Eifert, but rookies are the most dangerous thing in fantasy. Their potential always outweighs their production. If Ebron is anywhere near TE1 status this year, I'll be shocked.