Early draft primer

[element1286]

I will have to search for the article when I get home. It broke down players drafted by position at the high school level and the college level over the best 10 year period since te draft was implemented and the absolute worst player to draft is a high school catcher. Not only did they almost never make it to the majors as a catcher, they almost never made it to the majors period. It is just the worst value pick you could possibly make in the first round.

As for Stanek, I wasn't a fan until I saw video. The stuff is there and it is good, and in the second half of the season he had pretty good results. Although not my first choice at #9 if he is there I don't think there will be anyone better, but last year goes to show that you just never know.

I have a top 15 in my head that doesn't really have much of an order, but suffice to say ReeseMcGuire is not in it and neither is Hunter Renfroe.

I'd be interested to read that.

 

[element1286]

http://sabr.org/sites/default/files...B_Draft_Outcomes-2012_Jack_Kavanagh_Award.pdf

This might be the article that you were referring to, crow.

 

[thecrow124]

http://sabr.org/sites/default/files...B_Draft_Outcomes-2012_Jack_Kavanagh_Award.pdf

This might be the article that you were referring to, crow.

That wasn't the article, and I have spent so much time looking that at this point I think it might have been a dream ( which scares me to think about). I don't want to go spouting off numbers because I don't remember what they were exactly, but they were not good for HS catchers. Pisses me off that I didn't link it here when I read it, if I read it, because it was good stuff. Anyway, doesn't change my view, I am really not interrested in any of the HS catchers or DJ Crawford. At least not at 9 or 14.

 

[thecrow124]

I was just thinking, I am beginning to sour a bit on Trey Ball as well. Not because I don't think he has a lot of talent, but more because I keep hearing experts say "even if he can't stick at pitcher he is a top 100 guy as an outfielder." I don't want that question in a top 15 pick. If I were willing to accept that risk I would rather accept the risk that is associated with Sean Manaea, there are injury concerns, but when healthy he is every bit as dominant as Gray or Appel and throws from the left side.

This is just a bad draft outside of the top 3 and if you are picking after 8 you are at the point of hoping talent slides to you.

 

[steelparrot]

Draft is tonight at 7pm est, predraft starts at 6. its on mlbtv and on their website too.

All the mock drafts have us taking McGuire at 9, number 14 seems to a pool of about 5 players.

Mock Draft 4.0: The Final Countdown - BaseballAmerica.com

 

[element1286]

Not much of a fan of McGuire. I'd love DJ Petersen at 14, though.

 

[thecrow124]

I am not a fan of McGuire either, a catcher whose biggest problem will be hitting leaves no room for error. There would be no fallback plan if he can't hit. At least with the other 2 their questions are about their defense behind the plate so either could be moved. Also read a report that Colorado was seriously considering Dom Smith at #3. That would bump one of my top 8 to #9 where we could pick him. Also heard that KC had a deal with Phil Bickford at #8 so that would bump another top 8 guy back. We could have a pretty good group of players there for us at 9, just hope NH isn't locked in to McGuire that strongly.

 

[Darkstone42]

I see that Austin Meadows is the selection at 9.

 

[Darkstone42]

McGuire at 14.

 

[steelparrot]

2 high upside lefty high school bats.

High school catchers are a big gamble, but he was one of the last high upside guys left in that range. KC playing pool games right in front of us really helped us

 

[Darkstone42]

After watching McGuire's scouting video, I like the pick. His swing looks smooth, he's got good size, and he makes catching look easy, in particular with how quick his exchange and how strong his arm are.

Of course, I very much like the Meadows selection.

And while I was really hoping Austin Wilson would fall to us in the second round (so close!), I like the pick of Blake Taylor. He throws hard with little effort and good movement, has decent control, and could have three pitches.

 

[element1286]

I didn't necessarily like McGuire, but the way the draft went down it was obvious the Pirate's went BPA at each pick, at least their internal BPA, in that sense I have no problem with the picks.

 

[thecrow124]

I probably would have gone with Denney in the second round, but I am guessing there are some signability issues with him so we may not see him go until after round 10 is complete.

I love the Meadows pick, even if he has to move to left.

I am still not sold on McGuire, his swing is kind of long and has a lot of movement to it for timing purposes I would guess. It won't work against top pitching so when they work changes into it how is it going to hold up? Between he and Meadows it is a good first round haul though.

Second round guy I don't know much about. Wlaks a lot of batters in HS though, so seems to be a pretty big project IMO.

 

[steelparrot]

9. PITTSBURGH PIRATES
PICK VALUE: $3,029,600

AUSTIN MEADOWS, OF, GRAYSON HS (LOGANVILLE,GA.) (@Austin_Meadows)
Area Scout: Jerry Jordan

PICK ANALYSIS: The Pirates wanted David Dahl last year and Meadows is a similar player.
Austin Meadows (Photo by Alyson Boyer Rode)

Austin Meadows (Photo by Alyson Boyer Rode)

SCOUTING REPORT: Meadows entered the season as the No. 1 prep hitter in the country before being passed by his neighbor, Clint Frazier. It’s not necessarily because Meadows had a bad spring, though. The physical lefthanded hitter has a 6-foot-3, 210-pound frame, maintaining his athleticism even though he added 10-15 pounds since last summer. Scouts consider it good weight, so it may be a challenge for Meadows to remain in center field down the line. He has modest arm strength but is athletic enough to play all three outfield spots. Scouts have significant confidence in his bat, which projects to be formidable. Meadows has a smooth, easy swing that he repeats and he covers the plate well. His mature approach stands out at the prep level, and he has the leverage to hit for corner-profile power. Some scouts do question his loft power thanks to a flat bat path and a relative lack of looseness, and some others consider him a bit low-energy for their taste. Still, he combines athleticism with one of the safest bats in the draft and should go out in the first 10-12 selections.

WHERE HE FITS: Meadows is an impact talent who fits in the middle of the Pirates’ top 10, likely ahead of Josh Bell.


14. PITTSBURGH PIRATES
PICK VALUE: $2,569,800

REESE MCGUIRE, C, KENTWOOD HS, COVINGTON, WASH. (@Reese_McGuire21)
Area Scout: Greg Hopkins

PICK ANALYSIS: The Pirates are going with a high-upside duo by pairing McGuire with Meadows.

reese-mcguire-2013-abrSCOUTING REPORT: McGuire was known by scouts early, playing in the 2011 Area Code Games as a junior before leading his high school team to a state championship in 2012. He was named USA Baseball’s Dick Case player of the year after he hit .400/.522/.514 for the gold-medal-winning 18-and-under team last summer. McGuire showed his athletic versatility with Team USA, playing third base and outfield, but he’s best as a catcher in pro ball. He is a natural behind the plate. He remains loose, even after adding strength to his 6-foot-1, 190-pound build. His receiving, blocking and arm strength are all above-average, and he has been calling his own games since he was 10 years old. He has a high baseball IQ and game awareness. The question will be how much McGuire will hit. He has a smooth lefthanded swing with strength and bat speed and shows the tools to be an above-average pure hitter with average power. The San Diego recruit runs better than most catchers. Even if he doesn’t reach his offensive ceiling, McGuire’s defense will allow him to be a big league backup, but if he hits he has all-star potential.

WHERE HE FITS: The Pirates system is deep, so McGuire will likely rank in the eight to 10 range in next year’s Prospect Handbook.

 

[steelparrot]

double post

 

[Darkstone42]

9. PITTSBURGH PIRATES
PICK VALUE: $3,029,600

AUSTIN MEADOWS, OF, GRAYSON HS (LOGANVILLE,GA.) (@Austin_Meadows)
Area Scout: Jerry Jordan

PICK ANALYSIS: The Pirates wanted David Dahl last year and Meadows is a similar player.
Austin Meadows (Photo by Alyson Boyer Rode)

Austin Meadows (Photo by Alyson Boyer Rode)

SCOUTING REPORT: Meadows entered the season as the No. 1 prep hitter in the country before being passed by his neighbor, Clint Frazier. It’s not necessarily because Meadows had a bad spring, though. The physical lefthanded hitter has a 6-foot-3, 210-pound frame, maintaining his athleticism even though he added 10-15 pounds since last summer. Scouts consider it good weight, so it may be a challenge for Meadows to remain in center field down the line. He has modest arm strength but is athletic enough to play all three outfield spots. Scouts have significant confidence in his bat, which projects to be formidable. Meadows has a smooth, easy swing that he repeats and he covers the plate well. His mature approach stands out at the prep level, and he has the leverage to hit for corner-profile power. Some scouts do question his loft power thanks to a flat bat path and a relative lack of looseness, and some others consider him a bit low-energy for their taste. Still, he combines athleticism with one of the safest bats in the draft and should go out in the first 10-12 selections.

WHERE HE FITS: Meadows is an impact talent who fits in the middle of the Pirates’ top 10, likely ahead of Josh Bell.


14. PITTSBURGH PIRATES
PICK VALUE: $2,569,800

REESE MCGUIRE, C, KENTWOOD HS, COVINGTON, WASH. (@Reese_McGuire21)
Area Scout: Greg Hopkins

PICK ANALYSIS: The Pirates are going with a high-upside duo by pairing McGuire with Meadows.

reese-mcguire-2013-abrSCOUTING REPORT: McGuire was known by scouts early, playing in the 2011 Area Code Games as a junior before leading his high school team to a state championship in 2012. He was named USA Baseball’s Dick Case player of the year after he hit .400/.522/.514 for the gold-medal-winning 18-and-under team last summer. McGuire showed his athletic versatility with Team USA, playing third base and outfield, but he’s best as a catcher in pro ball. He is a natural behind the plate. He remains loose, even after adding strength to his 6-foot-1, 190-pound build. His receiving, blocking and arm strength are all above-average, and he has been calling his own games since he was 10 years old. He has a high baseball IQ and game awareness. The question will be how much McGuire will hit. He has a smooth lefthanded swing with strength and bat speed and shows the tools to be an above-average pure hitter with average power. The San Diego recruit runs better than most catchers. Even if he doesn’t reach his offensive ceiling, McGuire’s defense will allow him to be a big league backup, but if he hits he has all-star potential.

WHERE HE FITS: The Pirates system is deep, so McGuire will likely rank in the eight to 10 range in next year’s Prospect Handbook.

The part in bold is what I most like about the pick. I know the odds are against it, statistically speaking, but he really strikes me as the type who will stick behind the plate.

 

[Etrius24]

I read that his defense and catching graded out as as 60 ( 60 is the max score you can get, and some teams were wanting this guy for his defense alone )

So if there is anything at all to his bat then it is a good pick...He will likely make the majors no matter what just because his glove is that special.

 

[Etrius24]

And for the record I like the fact that they looked around and took maybe the best bat in the draft when it was their turn to pick in round 1.. Meadows has enough arm and bat to play anywhere in the outfield...The kid has a great swing...natural hitter..I am curious to see how much pop he ends up having but he should hit for average and have at least average power.... The kid has good size and strength so I am holding out hope that he is maybe a potential 30 homerun outfield bat!

 

[Etrius24]

Someday