Eagles trade first round pick to Saints for 2023 first and picks

[Sparhawk]

Well eirh their 1 and the Saints 1, they should have two top 10 picks.

PhoenixEagles would be proud.....

 

[Pure Steel]

Saints over/under for the season is currently 8.5 in Vegas.

These are some of their opponents though:

And Trubisky......

 

[Manster7588]

PhoenixEagles would be proud.....

See you get me. PE1 would have came unhinged.

 

[jarntt]

I'm obviously missing something since everyone is saying the Saints got absolutely fleeced.

Let's say the Eagles get pick #18 and #101 for pick #16. That's about even on the draft day trade charts and if you make that trade during the draft you may get a premium and a little better than #101 back. So now that leaves (ignoring the 6th and 7th round picks) the Eagles getting a #1 next year and a #2 in 2024 for pick #19 this year. Conventional wisdom used to be that next years #1 is worth about this years #2. I don't totally agree with that, but I would rather have pick #19 this year than those two picks. I get that everyone thinks the Saints will suck and if it turns out a top 5 pick it's a great deal for Philly, but who knows what will happen. I think it is a pretty fair trade. Personally I think any team that makes a trade like this before they are on the clock or at least close is stupid because you have no idea how the draft will go.

 

[shopson67]

I'm obviously missing something since everyone is saying the Saints got absolutely fleeced.

Let's say the Eagles get pick #18 and #101 for pick #16. That's about even on the draft day trade charts and if you make that trade during the draft you may get a premium and a little better than #101 back. So now that leaves (ignoring the 6th and 7th round picks) the Eagles getting a #1 next year and a #2 in 2024 for pick #19 this year. Conventional wisdom used to be that next years #1 is worth about this years #2. I don't totally agree with that, but I would rather have pick #19 this year than those two picks. I get that everyone thinks the Saints will suck and if it turns out a top 5 pick it's a great deal for Philly, but who knows what will happen. I think it is a pretty fair trade. Personally I think any team that makes a trade like this before they are on the clock or at least close is stupid because you have no idea how the draft will go.

The bigger issue is the assumption that they're doing so to trade up. Who is the transcendent player they're targeting in this draft?

 

[Sparhawk]

I'm obviously missing something since everyone is saying the Saints got absolutely fleeced.

Let's say the Eagles get pick #18 and #101 for pick #16. That's about even on the draft day trade charts and if you make that trade during the draft you may get a premium and a little better than #101 back. So now that leaves (ignoring the 6th and 7th round picks) the Eagles getting a #1 next year and a #2 in 2024 for pick #19 this year. Conventional wisdom used to be that next years #1 is worth about this years #2. I don't totally agree with that, but I would rather have pick #19 this year than those two picks. I get that everyone thinks the Saints will suck and if it turns out a top 5 pick it's a great deal for Philly, but who knows what will happen. I think it is a pretty fair trade. Personally I think any team that makes a trade like this before they are on the clock or at least close is stupid because you have no idea how the draft will go.

Two things.

The draft chart trade values are more like.... guidelines.
Estimating the value of a future pick as a round less is more of a..... guideline.

Now, if we did use the draft chart and NO wins the Super Bowl the next two years, then it becomes :
#19 875 points
-for-
#32 590 points and #64 in 2024 for 270 points

So, worst case scenario, PHI gets back 860 points for 875.

But, I think we can reasonably assume that NO will not do that.
If they finish #20 the next two years, then the picks become worth 850 and 380, or 1230 points, which far exceeds 875.
In which case, they become excellent value, albeit taking two years to reach that value.

It's a win now move for NO with risk in getting those picks right.
It's a long term win for PHI with risk in NO making the playoffs the next two years.

 

[Manster7588]

I'm obviously missing something since everyone is saying the Saints got absolutely fleeced.

Let's say the Eagles get pick #18 and #101 for pick #16. That's about even on the draft day trade charts and if you make that trade during the draft you may get a premium and a little better than #101 back. So now that leaves (ignoring the 6th and 7th round picks) the Eagles getting a #1 next year and a #2 in 2024 for pick #19 this year. Conventional wisdom used to be that next years #1 is worth about this years #2. I don't totally agree with that, but I would rather have pick #19 this year than those two picks. I get that everyone thinks the Saints will suck and if it turns out a top 5 pick it's a great deal for Philly, but who knows what will happen. I think it is a pretty fair trade. Personally I think any team that makes a trade like this before they are on the clock or at least close is stupid because you have no idea how the draft will go.

For arguments sake I have the Saints drafting at #15 in 23 and 24. If you add up the values per the chart the Eagles win by 590, that equals pick #32. I highly doubt the Saints are picking at 15 in 23, as I'd bet they would have been picking earlier.

 

[Iggloo]

I think Sparhawk explained the math well above. It ultimately depends on a lot of factors, but the odds of Philly getting more value here are better than the Saints, and by a longshot.

 

[PDay8810]

I think Sparhawk explained the math well above. It ultimately depends on a lot of factors, but the odds of Philly getting more value here are better than the Saints, and by a longshot.

good for you skippy

Fly Eagles Fly

 

[Sharkonabicycle]

I generally don't like to trade picks for future picks, but I think there is a good chance that the Saints suck this year and this becomes a high draft choice for 2023, when Philly may be in the hunt for another QB if Jalen Hurts doesn't take a step forward this season.

Eagles get:

A 2022 first-round pick (No. 18 overall), New Orleans’ 2023 first-round pick, New Orleans’ 2024 second-round pick, a 2022 third-round pick (No. 101 overall) and a 2022 seventh-round pick (No. 237 overall).

Saints get:

Two 2022 first-round picks (Nos. 16 and 19 overall) and a 2022 sixth-round pick (No. 194)

Who won the trade? Vote.

Eagles trade 16th, 19th picks to Saints for No. 18, 2023 first-rounder and more

The Eagles were set to have three first-round picks this year by virtue of trades with the Dolphins and Colts, but they've agreed to another trade that will leave them with two first-rounders this year and two more in 2023.

profootballtalk.nbcsports.com

This, and in addition next years class is the one to have picks for. You guys might've just netted a top 5 pick. Lot of the DL talent this year all projected early have a number of questions around them, there's no standout QBs in this draft... CB is probably the best overall talent this year, but it's cornerback.... yes a shutdown CB can make a difference, but not the difference a QB/OL/DL player can make.

I mean the Saints still have SOME talent on their roster, but Winston/Dalton? Kamara is obviously good, Thomas and their other higher paid guys can never stay healthy. And of course the biggest loss is Sean Payton.

 

[jarntt]

Two things.

The draft chart trade values are more like.... guidelines.
Estimating the value of a future pick as a round less is more of a..... guideline.

Now, if we did use the draft chart and NO wins the Super Bowl the next two years, then it becomes :
#19 875 points
-for-
#32 590 points and #64 in 2024 for 270 points

So, worst case scenario, PHI gets back 860 points for 875.

But, I think we can reasonably assume that NO will not do that.
If they finish #20 the next two years, then the picks become worth 850 and 380, or 1230 points, which far exceeds 875.
In which case, they become excellent value, albeit taking two years to reach that value.

It's a win now move for NO with risk in getting those picks right.
It's a long term win for PHI with risk in NO making the playoffs the next two years.

No that isn't true at all. What everyone is missing is whether you just assign a value in your head or use the chart you can't apply the number of points (or the value) for this years 1st and 2nd round picks to 2023 and certainly not 2024 1st and 2nd round picks. It doesn't work that way. If you want to follow the logic of the chart followers, next years #1 is loosely assigned the value of this years #2. I said before I don't agree with this but it is likely as close as assuming the same value as you are. Would any team ever trade this years #10 overall pick for next years #10 overall pick?

The chart is like using PFF ratings. Very flawed but at least a way to come up with a comparison to begin the discussion. Eagles gave up a 3rd to move up two spots last year. I still rather have #16 than #18 and #101 which is almost a 4th unless I'm on the clock and know I have two or three guys I like equally. My biggest point is they are both stupid for doing this trade a month before the draft as they will have no clue who will or won't be available.

 

[Sparhawk]

No that isn't true at all. What everyone is missing is whether you just assign a value in your head or use the chart you can't apply the number of points (or the value) for this years 1st and 2nd round picks to 2023 and certainly not 2024 1st and 2nd round picks. It doesn't work that way. If you want to follow the logic of the chart followers, next years #1 is loosely assigned the value of this years #2. I said before I don't agree with this but it is likely as close as assuming the same value as you are. Would any team ever trade this years #10 overall pick for next years #10 overall pick?

The chart is like using PFF ratings. Very flawed but at least a way to come up with a comparison to begin the discussion. Eagles gave up a 3rd to move up two spots last year. I still rather have #16 than #18 and #101 which is almost a 4th unless I'm on the clock and know I have two or three guys I like equally. My biggest point is they are both stupid for doing this trade a month before the draft as they will have no clue who will or won't be available.

 

[jarntt]

For arguments sake I have the Saints drafting at #15 in 23 and 24. If you add up the values per the chart the Eagles win by 590, that equals pick #32. I highly doubt the Saints are picking at 15 in 23, as I'd bet they would have been picking earlier.

Again, if you want to use the chart, how can you use this years value for next years pick? and even worse for 2024?

Look at what the Giants got from the Bears.
Giants gave up pick #10 and got pick #20 and a 5th and this years #1 which everyone knew would be a top half of the draft pick and a 4th.

So go to the thought of the Bears winning the SB made by Sparhawk and forgetting about the 4th and 5th rounders you would get the following if you didn't discount the picks:
#10 - 1300 points
#20 and #32 - 1440 points. If you use a mid first it's 1810 and the actual is 2350 and that still ignores the other picks. You have to discount those future years picks whether using the chart or just history of what happens on draft day trades

 

[Manster7588]

Again, if you want to use the chart, how can you use this years value for next years pick? and even worse for 2024?

Look at what the Giants got from the Bears.
Giants gave up pick #10 and got pick #20 and a 5th and this years #1 which everyone knew would be a top half of the draft pick and a 4th.

So go to the thought of the Bears winning the SB made by Sparhawk and forgetting about the 4th and 5th rounders you would get the following if you didn't discount the picks:
#10 - 1300 points
#20 and #32 - 1440 points. If you use a mid first it's 1810 and the actual is 2350 and that still ignores the other picks. You have to discount those future years picks whether using the chart or just history of what happens on draft day trades

I get next years picks mean less, but I think you're over discounting them. As I said I put the Saints at 15 because it's in the middle, but I'd bet they are closer to 5.

 

[jarntt]

I get next years picks mean less, but I think you're over discounting them. As I said I put the Saints at 15 because it's in the middle, but I'd bet they are closer to 5.

I'm not over discounting them. I said I don't agree with the theory. But, it is the theory or at least one theory. The point is you cannot use the current years value for future yeas picks. That just doesn't make any sense.

You can look at what the Giants got from the Bears just last year. The Bears were a team we knew would be in the top 10. The Saints, who knows. Assign any value you want from the chart but if you don't significantly discount those picks its not even close

 

[Ickey Shuffle]

The whole premise on this is the Eagles banking on the Saints being horrible and the Saints think they're better than what their record indicates. They do have the injuries excuse. You never know with this league. This should be fun.

 

[Manster7588]

The whole premise on this is the Eagles banking on the Saints being horrible and the Saints think they're better than what their record indicates. They do have the injuries excuse. You never know with this league. This should be fun.

True, the Eagles could have gave a top 10 pick to NO or recieve a 20/25ish pick.

 

[wazzu31]

Now Eagles send those first round picks for DK Metcalf