Draft Theory - Investing

[Crimsoncrew]

For the record, my support for Bray has more to do with the lack of available good QBs than it does Bray as a prospect. If we were talking the first round, I'd take someone else. But when something get more rare it gets more valuable. And when prospects like Brandon Weeden & Brock Osweiler are taken at 22 & 57 respectively, I just think Bray poses too much value to pass at 63.

A lot can happen in 4 years, and, philosophically, I believe in taking the best value at any point in the draft.

Bray isn't one of my favourite prospects lately (I'm not saying he's Andrew Luck), but he's probably about as good a talent as Ryan Tannehill was IMO.

Those two bolded comments don't seem to square. You are clearly inflating Bray's value because of the position he plays and the lack of talent at that spot. As such, it seems unlikely he would represent the best value. Not to mention "value" is relative. To a team with a secure starting QB, a backup QB doesn't have nearly as much value.

 

[dredinis21]

Essentially they did select RGIII in terms of getting equal value. They traded down from that spot & got an excellent return because of RGIII's value. The Chargers literally took Eli Manning & traded him even though he wasn't the guy they wanted.

The difference here is that I'm talking about a guy I think people are overlooking. So if he's on the board at 63, his trade value isn't what it should be IMO. So the only way to realize that value is to draft him.

To use an extreme example, if the Niners alerady had Peyton Manning (age 25) at QB, but Tom Brady was on the board at 63, I think it would be dumb not to take him. Again, it's an extreme example, but I just couldn't pass on a good QB in the bottom half of the 2nd round. Good QBs are too rare.

I'm not going to complain if the Niners pass on Bray at 63 if he's there. I think there will be a lot of good players on the board at that point. I just think Bray is the best option.

Your "value" belief is skewed. First, I used RGIII as an example because his value was set in stone. He was going to be the #2 pick in the draft. He also was lined up to be on a team that already had a QB in Bradford. Bray is different because although he has a good arm, he has been erratic, he had potentially two 1st rd picks to throw to, he has shown to be immature, etc. Teams taking a chance on him would have to develop him, whether it be us or a team like the Cards. The only way he gains "value" is if he improves. He will NOT get that opportunity with the Niners because at best he would be 3rd string. That would take him 1/4 of the way through his rookie contract, with getting little to zero snaps in practice. Next, the ONLY way to elevate his already dropping stock is to play him but he plays a position that only one person can play at a time. So is he going to wow people enough in garbage time during the pre-season to warrant a 1st rd pick? Highly doubt it.

I get it, you like the guy as a prospect. If he was still there in the 4th, I'd consider it. But to draft a BACKUP QB in the 2nd round when we have so many other holes to fill seems silly to me.

 

[mem49er]

I get it, you like the guy as a prospect. If he was still there in the 4th, I'd consider it. But to draft a BACKUP QB in the 2nd round when we have so many other holes to fill seems silly to me.

Pretty much this.

 

[NinerSickness]

Those two bolded comments don't seem to square. You are clearly inflating Bray's value because of the position he plays and the lack of talent at that spot. As such, it seems unlikely he would represent the best value. Not to mention "value" is relative. To a team with a secure starting QB, a backup QB doesn't have nearly as much value.

That isn't "inflating." If something is more rare it becomes more valuable. That's just supply & demand. And the QB position "inflates," if you want to use that term, a player's vlaue in and of itself because it's, by far, the most important position on the field.

As far as value goes, that is largely based on luck. If the Niners are lucky & Kaep plays all 16 games, the backup QB isn't as valuable. If he gets a concussion or breaks a rib or something, a good backup QB becomes extremely valuable.

 

[Crimsoncrew]

That isn't "inflating." If something is more rare it becomes more valuable. That's just supply & demand. And the QB position "inflates," if you want to use that term, a player's vlaue in and of itself because it's, by far, the most important position on the field.

As far as value goes, that is largely based on luck. If the Niners are lucky & Kaep plays all 16 games, the backup QB isn't as valuable. If he gets a concussion or breaks a rib or something, a good backup QB becomes extremely valuable.

When you talk about a lack of QBs, do you mean in the league or in this draft? I wasn't entirely sure, but assumed the latter. If you meant the former, then those statements would reconcile somewhat better. But I still think it's a stretch to add a player with the primary intention of trading him.

No disagreement on the value if an injury occurs to Kap.

 

[NinerSickness]

When you talk about a lack of QBs, do you mean in the league or in this draft?

The draft. Bray's the only QB in the entire draft who has a high enough ceiling to be great IMO. It's an extremely weak class. And I'm not huge on many of the QBs who could be in next year's draft either (and the Niners won't be in a position to get the top prospects anyway).

I think I hold the backup QB position as a much bigger need than most people do.

 

[Crimsoncrew]

The draft. Bray's the only QB in the entire draft who has a high enough ceiling to be great IMO. It's an extremely weak class. And I'm not huge on many of the QBs who could be in next year's draft either (and the Niners won't be in a position to get the top prospects anyway).

I think I hold the backup QB position as a much bigger need than most people do.

Yeah, so in that case you're inflating his value because of this particular draft and his position. That's not getting value from the pick, that's reaching at a position. Perhaps more importantly, it's not relevant to any attempt we might make to trade him in the future as those drafts will likely be stronger at QB.

 

[NinerSickness]

Yeah, so in that case you're inflating his value because of this particular draft and his position. That's not getting value from the pick, that's reaching at a position. Perhaps more importantly, it's not relevant to any attempt we might make to trade him in the future as those drafts will likely be stronger at QB.

Look at it this way. The 49ers are not going to even get the opportunity to draft many (if any) uber-talented QBs. All of them are going to be gone by the time the Niners pick. This probably goes for Kaep's entire career in SF. And during a superbowl run, it would be dumb to spend a 1st round pick on a QB. Just looking at the talent level of the QBs drafted around the 63rd pick since 1990:


Tommy Hodson (59)
Peter Tom Willis (63)
Neil O'Donnell (70)
Billy Joe Hobert (58)
Kordell Stewart (60)
Charlie Batch (60)
Brock Huard (77)
Chris Redman (76)
Gio Caramazzi (66)
Marques Tuiasosopo (59)
Charlie Frye (67)
Andrew Walter (69)
Tarvaris Jackson (64)
Brian Brohm (56)
Chad Henne (57)
Ryan Mallett (74)
Brock Osweiler (57)

Not a lot of talent there. And the likelihood of getting a QB who's even DECENT goes down with every pick. So if a QB as talented as Tyler Bray is there at pick 63, I say you have to jump on it.

 

[Flyingiguana]

Look at it this way. The 49ers are not going to even get the opportunity to draft many (if any) uber-talented QBs. All of them are going to be gone by the time the Niners pick. This probably goes for Kaep's entire career in SF. And during a superbowl run, it would be dumb to spend a 1st round pick on a QB. Just looking at the talent level of the QBs drafted around the 63rd pick since 1990:


Tommy Hodson (59)
Peter Tom Willis (63)
Neil O'Donnell (70)
Billy Joe Hobert (58)
Kordell Stewart (60)
Charlie Batch (60)
Brock Huard (77)
Chris Redman (76)
Gio Caramazzi (66)
Marques Tuiasosopo (59)
Charlie Frye (67)
Andrew Walter (69)
Tarvaris Jackson (64)
Brian Brohm (56)
Chad Henne (57)
Ryan Mallett (74)
Brock Osweiler (57)

Not a lot of talent there. And the likelihood of getting a QB who's even DECENT goes down with every pick. So if a QB as talented as Tyler Bray is there at pick 63, I say you have to jump on it.

too many good picks we can make in the 3rd to waste it on a garbage qb

 

[NinerSickness]

too many good picks we can make in the 3rd to waste it on a garbage qb

If Bray = garbage, name a QB the Niners can draft later than him who's any good.

 

[Flyingiguana]

If Bray = garbage, name a QB the Niners can draft later than him who's any good.

who says we have to draft someone this year?

 

[NinerSickness]

who says we have to draft someone this year?

The sooner the better. Scott Tolzien is the kind of QB who has nothing to offer the franchise except maybe not screwing up as badly as some other QBs might. That isn't good enough for me. The Niners need a guy who can come in and win a few games if Kaep gets hurt. But I don't want 'em to spend money in FA to do so. That means, if they're going to find a talented QB in the draft, they're best off looking for a guy who has great talent but a bunch of fixable flaws. I don't see anyone who fits that bill better than Bray does.

I don't see anyone who will play NEXT year who fits that bill better than Bray. I've always said I like EJ Manuel too, but it looks like he's going to be taken even higher than Bray will.

 

[mem49er]

@AdamSchefter: A #Bills contingent including their HC, GM, asst GM, Pres are scheduled to work out QB Tyler Bray in Knoxville, next Sat.

 

[Flyingiguana]

The sooner the better. Scott Tolzien is the kind of QB who has nothing to offer the franchise except maybe not screwing up as badly as some other QBs might. That isn't good enough for me. The Niners need a guy who can come in and win a few games if Kaep gets hurt. But I don't want 'em to spend money in FA to do so. That means, if they're going to find a talented QB in the draft, they're best off looking for a guy who has great talent but a bunch of fixable flaws. I don't see anyone who fits that bill better than Bray does.

I don't see anyone who will play NEXT year who fits that bill better than Bray. I've always said I like EJ Manuel too, but it looks like he's going to be taken even higher than Bray will.

no point forcing it. develop tolzien, bring in a vet or whatever. no real rush.

 

[NinerSickness]

By the way, now that the Niners traded for Colt - the real Mccoy, I'm less inclined to want them to draft Tyler Bray. McCoy at least has some starting NFL experience & could win a couple of games if he needed to. He's nowehere near Bray in terms of talent; and I eventually want the Niners to draft a talented QB like him, but the need is far less IMO.

Not that it's guaranteed McCoy will make the roster.

I don't see any QBs I like in this draft besides Bray though. Maybe if he falls really far to like the end of the 3rd or something crazy like that.

 

[deep9er]

By the way, now that the Niners traded for Colt - the real Mccoy, I'm less inclined to want them to draft Tyler Bray. McCoy at least has some starting NFL experience & could win a couple of games if he needed to. He's nowehere near Bray in terms of talent; and I eventually want the Niners to draft a talented QB like him, but the need is far less IMO.

Not that it's guaranteed McCoy will make the roster.

I don't see any QBs I like in this draft besides Bray though. Maybe if he falls really far to like the end of the 3rd or something crazy like that.

If Bray is the guy, then still draft him. If Bray is much better than McCoy, draft him. When?

Soon as Bray presents solid value.

 

[Flyingiguana]

If Bray is the guy, then still draft him. If Bray is much better than McCoy, draft him. When?

Soon as Bray presents solid value.

5th? 6th? 7th?

 

[deep9er]

5th? 6th? 7th?

IF he's the guy, we would likely be looking at the 5th? [out of these options]