Draft Theory - Investing

[MHSL82]

I'd also like to go to the bank, ask for change for a $50 and get 5 $100 bills back.

Just go to this restaurant, you'll get more than that.


I think 2:04 is the best place to start, 1:14 is good too. 2:37 if you're pressed for time. 5:50 if you just want the punch line. (Spoiler alert: He never paid.)

My brother, who now works at Dreamworks, loved film from when he was a kid to now, made a version of this as a ten year old with his friend on one of those Beta video cassettes. I want to convert it to a DVD.

 

[deep9er]

Drafting NFL prospects is not just about determining how good a player is, it's about projecting how good he will be over the course of his career. It's the exact same thing as investing in the stock market. Looking at what a stock has done in the past tells you next to nothing about what it's going to do in the future.

Most people invest by looking at what something has done and thinking it will continue that way. I don't know how many people were telling me to invest in silver back in 2011. My reaction was always the same: there are 3 words you want to avoid when investing - ALL TIME HIGH. Silver was near an all-time high, and I thought that people had already missed the boat. I was right.

As it pertains to NFL prospects, determining a player's true value s about a lot of variables, but one is looking at the things that make them go up or down on a big board and then figuring whether that movement was (1) too big of a movement (2) not a big enough movement or (3) right around the right movement. For example - Jarvis Jone's neck issue dropped his stock. We'll know how much on draft day. Was the drop too much? Not enough? Just right? If you think a player's stock took WAY too big of a hit, you move up or down to get him. If it wasn't a big enough hit, just pass on him. And the reverse is true when their stocks go up.

Another variable is things you see that most people don't. This is rare because the NFL is getting really good at crossing all their t's and dotting all their i's. But they're only human, and some of them are downright inept (Terry Donahue, Al Davis, Howie Roseman, etc). Some of them are geniuses (Bill Walsh, Jimmy Johnson, Ozzie Newsome, etc).

All of these variables go into 2 different things - (1) bang for yer buck and (2) need. Need is the tie-breaker IMO. Bang for yer buck means if there are 2 players whom you see as equal value, you take the one who drops lower. It also means that if there's a player who's great in the top 10 but there's a player who's ALMOST as good as him in the 7th round, the 7th round pick is a lot more bang for yer buck (except with elite QBs; and this is an extreme example anyway).

What's the point of all of this? I'm writing this because of my interest in Tyler Bray. Tyler Bray is a penny sock that will turn into 5 dollars in a few years. He's by far the most talented passer in the draft, and he should have gone back to school because he needs more time to develop as a QB. However, he left early before the NFL got a chance to see him as a mature QB. His biggest problems are short-term problems. Maturity - time fixes that. Accuracy - working with Harbaugh will go a long way towards fixing that.

What coaching cannot help is a QB's ability to make any possible throw. Bray can do that. He's tall & stands tall in the pocket. And he doesn't have to wind up very much at all or even step very much into the throw to put it on a rope 30 yards downfield. And with the lack of talent at QB in college football right now, his value is even higher. Basically, he's a franchise QB in waiting. If a team takes him & gives him a year & a half to sit & learn, they're going to thank their lucky stars. There's no good reason he should be there outside of the top 15 picks, and if you can get that kind of value in the 2nd round, it's a steal.

agree with the bold.......only.

cause not quite sure i get the rest of it? haaa

 

[Flyingiguana]

A pig huh? Let's remember to re-visit this in 2017. I won't forget.

you'll be oinking

 

[MHSL82]

a top 10 pick? you're really putting lipstick on a pig

A pig huh? Let's remember to re-visit this in 2017. I won't forget.

you'll be oinking

At 35 seconds, skip to this point because you won'tlikethe first 34 if you are not familiar with Phantom of the Opera. (The prior part is opera.)

 

[Hangman]

Sorry Sick, I'm having all kinds of connection issues lately.
Tell me, if you were playing the stock market would you invest in a stock that could only maximize it's return if another, larger, investment, failed to a significant degree, would you buy the second stock?

I know what you are saying and I agree with you, but people do this everyday. It is called hedging the investment just in case so they don't lose their shirts just in case the market changes for the worse. But, then they invest in a stock that is much riskier, costs less, and will only gain a lot of value to almost equal the original investment when the first stock fails.

So if Sick was trying to hedge the Kaep investment, the 9ers should draft a QB in the later rounds who has some flaw that over time can be fixed fast if needed and if needed would play QB like a second rounder.

 

[Flyingiguana]

At 35 seconds, skip to this point because you won'tlikethe first 34 if you are not familiar with Phantom of the Opera. (The prior part is opera.)

in 2017 this will be sick

'who's taylor bray?'

 

[Crimsoncrew]

That isn't my "plan." It's one option. It's an option I like, but I would be more than happy to have Bray as the backup QB for 4 years. And who's to say he couldn't even steal Kaepernick's job from him if Kaep gets hurt?



Then you need to go give draft investment lessons to Bill Belichick because he spent the 74th pick on Ryan Mallett. And Bray is a better prospect than Mallett was. Or does that 11-pick gap make all the difference?

The situations are a bit different. Belichick has an older QB and Mallett was theoretically at least a "QB of the future." We could use a backup, but we're not at the point where we are feeling great pressure to address that spot. I wouldn't absolutely hate the move, as we need a backup. I just think it's silly to even consider future draft capital when making that sort of move. Mallett really only had potential trade value this year because the draft class is so weak.

 

[I_am_1z]

The amount of cap space affects the number of players the 49ers can sign to the 53 man roster does it not? As of now we have 4,600,000 in cap space left, so that's probably good for around 6 picks, assuming players are signed in chronological fashion to what overall they're drafted. (Can anyone validate this statement?)

 

[Crimsoncrew]

The amount of cap space affects the number of players the 49ers can sign to the 53 man roster does it not? As of now we have 4,600,000 in cap space left, so that's probably good for around 6 picks, assuming players are signed in chronological fashion to what overall they're drafted. (Can anyone validate this statement?)

I think they can work around rookie contracts pretty easily to make more guys fit. And there's a pretty good chance they might ask guys like Goodwin or Whitner to take a pay cut.

 

[NinerSickness]

in 2017 this will be sick

'who's taylor bray?'

Y'know the funny thing about this kind of stuff is that almost nobody scomes out & owns these kinds of statements when they're dead wrong years later.

 

[Flyingiguana]

Y'know the funny thing about this kind of stuff is that almost nobody scomes out & owns these kinds of statements when they're dead wrong years later.

he's a poor mans version of heath shuler

 

[justforkicks]

All that said and, realistically, the plan for the backup QB you support is Scott Tolzien. I can't get behind that.

Why so much hate for a guy who hasn't taken a single regular season snap? If Harbaugh thinks he's good enough of a QB to be on the team and one that he would allow the release of one of his favorite players (Josh Johnson), who are we to argue?

 

[NinerSickness]

Why so much hate for a guy who hasn't taken a single regular season snap?

Here's why:


Ok in all seriousness, I don't "hate" the guy, but I would be seriously surprised if he's any good. Not a lot of QBs are.

 

[dredinis21]

Sick, I am 100% behind Imac on this one. I keep referring to what the Redskins did last year as an ideal draft option for us. They waited until the 4th round, found that there was a QB still on the board that they had pegged as a 2nd round talent, and drafted him. Maximizing value by taking a player that is taken TWO FULL ROUNDS after the round the Redskins projected is what we should be doing, not hoping and praying a prospect like Bray pans out as the Uber-QB you are hoping for because we took him in the 2nd round.

Realistically, Bray wouldn't be the backup this season as Tolzien has been in the same offense for two years and would most likely be the QB JH turns to. I don't like spending a second round draft pick on a player that will NOT see the field this season at all regardless of what happens in a position that you only have one of on the field at a time. With that said, keep in mind that Bray as a 3rd string QB would get little to ZERO snaps after the pre-season so his development would be severely slowed.

Bottom line, I know you have a hard-on for the guy but he doesn't fit at ALL what we realistically should be doing. It seems like you are trying to jam a square peg into a round hole.

 

[dredinis21]

As far as Tolzien is concerned, I believe he has quite a bit working for him. He has a very quick release and he is unbelievable accuracy. His lack of arm strength is the only true knock on the guy. I think he can do at least an Alex Smith-esque job in running a short passing game, which is to say that he would be a pretty good backup.

 

[NinerSickness]

Bottom line, I know you have a hard-on for the guy but he doesn't fit at ALL what we realistically should be doing. It seems like you are trying to jam a square peg into a round hole.

For the record, my support for Bray has more to do with the lack of available good QBs than it does Bray as a prospect. If we were talking the first round, I'd take someone else. But when something get more rare it gets more valuable. And when prospects like Brandon Weeden & Brock Osweiler are taken at 22 & 57 respectively, I just think Bray poses too much value to pass at 63.

A lot can happen in 4 years, and, philosophically, I believe in taking the best value at any point in the draft.

Bray isn't one of my favourite prospects lately (I'm not saying he's Andrew Luck), but he's probably about as good a talent as Ryan Tannehill was IMO.

 

[maniax]

Maybe Harbaugh can pick up Pat White off the street and in 2 years turn him into a 3rd round pick.

 

[dredinis21]

For the record, my support for Bray has more to do with the lack of available good QBs than it does Bray as a prospect. If we were talking the first round, I'd take someone else. But when something get more rare it gets more valuable. And when prospects like Brandon Weeden & Brock Osweiler are taken at 22 & 57 respectively, I just think Bray poses too much value to pass at 63.

A lot can happen in 4 years, and, philosophically, I believe in taking the best value at any point in the draft.

Bray isn't one of my favourite prospects lately (I'm not saying he's Andrew Luck), but he's probably about as good a talent as Ryan Tannehill was IMO.

But that isn't exactly true. How many different threads have you brought up Bray as the option you want us to take and how many different ways have you tried to argue in favor of that?

The problem with your mentality of value with regards to the QB position is that it's not a viable, logical decision. If it were, why didn't the Rams simply hold onto the #2 pick last season and draft RGIII to go along with Sam Bradford? RGIII was clearly the best value at #2 if you factor in his controlled cap hit on his rookie contract. If we didn't have Kaep, I would be more willing to take your argument seriously. But I don't want to be wasting picks on QBs in the top two rounds simply to watch that player hold a clipboard because he provided the best "value". Value is in his ability to play at a high level and one doesn't gain value on the bench.

 

[NinerSickness]

ButThe problem with your mentality of value with regards to the QB position is that it's not a viable, logical decision. If it were, why didn't the Rams simply hold onto the #2 pick last season and draft RGIII to go along with Sam Bradford?

Essentially they did select RGIII in terms of getting equal value. They traded down from that spot & got an excellent return because of RGIII's value. The Chargers literally took Eli Manning & traded him even though he wasn't the guy they wanted.

The difference here is that I'm talking about a guy I think people are overlooking. So if he's on the board at 63, his trade value isn't what it should be IMO. So the only way to realize that value is to draft him.

To use an extreme example, if the Niners alerady had Peyton Manning (age 25) at QB, but Tom Brady was on the board at 63, I think it would be dumb not to take him. Again, it's an extreme example, but I just couldn't pass on a good QB in the bottom half of the 2nd round. Good QBs are too rare.

I'm not going to complain if the Niners pass on Bray at 63 if he's there. I think there will be a lot of good players on the board at that point. I just think Bray is the best option.

 

[Flyingiguana]

Essentially they did select RGIII in terms of getting equal value. They traded down from that spot & got an excellent return because of RGIII's value. The Chargers literally took Eli Manning & traded him even though he wasn't the guy they wanted.

The difference here is that I'm talking about a guy I think people are overlooking. So if he's on the board at 63, his trade value isn't what it should be IMO. So the only way to realize that value is to draft him.

To use an extreme example, if the Niners alerady had Peyton Manning (age 25) at QB, but Tom Brady was on the board at 63, I think it would be dumb not to take him. Again, it's an extreme example, but I just couldn't pass on a good QB in the bottom half of the 2nd round. Good QBs are too rare.

I'm not going to complain if the Niners pass on Bray at 63 if he's there. I think there will be a lot of good players on the board at that point. I just think Bray is the best option.

maybe in the 4th round after lattimore is off the board. i'd rather see us trade down with our late 2nd rounder then grab a safety or two and also gillislee.